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This is not a new trade strategy for what I teach. A low risk trader should protect gain and re-enter when resistances if finally over come again. Re-entry on confirmation lowers one risk. Buying bottoms expecting more, increases risk. Basic simple and clean. The question every trader must answer is the risk worth the added gain or does little bites of positive moves add up enough to satisfy the need for greed.
Experience has taught me, regular feeding is better the freest or famine. I've chosen and teach low risk. I can't criticise higher risk, people are different. But I recommend low risk.
Here's a novel idea, try to think lower losses, is better then larger gains. Especially when the best traders only close 50% of their trades positively. Losses are a big thing, keeping them small with low risk trading helps greatly to over all success.
Anger because the system is trying to protect you from yourself. HUMM Are you taking one of those clear pills and think you know better then anyone.? LOL Your getting good, but not that good, as Robert De Niro would tell Bradley Cooper.
Control my friend. Ice in the veins. Logic over emotion. Think, plan, adjust, is how to beat the system. And I'll be asking you questions some day. Get off the pill. That's what Bob taught Bray in the movie.
Personally I'd be happy with top resistance to take profits and plan on re-entry on continuation past resistance. Protect those gains ! The trade fee is worth the protection. IMO
The answer to that has as many answers as traders planning a trade. Is there any gain involved at the end of 14 or 30 days? Should I switch to a trading stop. Is an increase in volatility place my position in increased risk of getting closed. Does that matter to me. ETC.
Everyone should at least revisit every position on some kind of a schedule. To re-evaluate what's going on and adjust plans as needed.
What I can say is letting a trade plan sit unattended is not logical. One always needs to re-evaluate and adjust as needed. Ones personal comfort zone does change over time, due to circumstances which have changed.
It's all guess work and speculation. So don't base any personal opinions on what I think. But use the info presented to try to understand what may be happening with that stock. Based on, "is it an OTC game play or not."
We trade OTC game plays because experience has shown us big guys sell cheap shares into manipulated runs for profits. My closing point was I don't think this one will become an OTC game play. So I don't expect any large price runs in the future. Because I couldn't find large amounts of new shares in big guys hands to sell.
But I could be wrong.
LOL well it didn't take long continuing to watch UTRM before a big guy started buying up the ask stack.
Grat's Nice pick. Now trade the damn thing logically, not emotionally.
NYMT divvy rate is 14.88% as of today. I don't think that's a bad starting place. As for UTRM it's becoming drawn out, but volume interest levels seen contestant. Worth watching another week for thumbs up or down. But retail waiting for 3 weeks is a stretch before they get bored and start leaving. IMO without someone big buying the ask stack soon, it will retrace quickly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UTRM&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p97861891648
PS, next declaration date for NYMT is mid June.
Check history here;
http://www.dividendinvestor.com/?chk=592b91397701351&symbol=nymt&submit=GO
http://www.dividendinvestor.com/historical.php?no=25222
Have no idea, I like most of the talking heads on CNBC can't understand what causes a complete market to turn on a dime. But I doubt it involves logic. Technical's are not 1 of the main reasons for change at the big boards though. Normally the trading changes the Technical's. IMO 200 day MA's had little to do with anything.
I've always thought of underwriters of public offerings like realtors. They get a set fee structure negotiated pre the offering, to handle selling the product. I may be wrong. I haven't much experience in that area. Just pay attention to when share structure changes. Don't care how. I think price is determined threw advise of underwriter and wants/needs of the company. And the offering can stay in place till the company sells all or gives up. For all I know there may be a time limit contract restriction between company & underwriter. Just like selling real-estate. LOL
Check with BigBake1 he has a handle on FINRA filings info.
FROZ
Since then, I tried to do some research on the reverse merger and have not come to any conclusions yet. But it doesn't look like there is much VC's or old management wiggle room to manipulate the new company with large amounts of cheap shares. Most all for the OS increase is new management owned and/or restricted issued to redo old notes. I've only found 33 mil for new notes, since ownership transfer and calculations look like they were issued @ .02 per shares. Todays price. Can't find what happened to the 500 mil common registered @ .01 per share for management compensation. But it looks like that may have become class B convertible preferred to the old CEO. He and his old partner still have 46 mil each of pre merger common, and 9 mil by the old old owner, which is not restricted. And there was an old legal suite settled by new management, but can't find amount of shares issued for that $38k debit.
Ps; the new company has started the name change process and symbol change. It looks like a going concern taking the quicker/cheaper buy an empty shell way to open market funding for future growth. Legit but still needs to get into bed with the devil to get that funding. They had 1 old private note which transferred to FROZ for 175 mil of restricted under restructuring of the note for $660 k
Pre merger OS was 960 mil Mar 31st, post merger 3.9 bil, Apr 14. Of which 2.7 bil was to private company new management share holders. Their new management reported a total of 370 mil common between them.
For now it looks like there's a possible total of unrestricted common of 102 mil by old management, 33 mil by new VC funding @ 2 cents a share and 500 mil registered management compensation @ 1 cent per share, I can't account for and may not have been issued. Plus some small amount to settle a law suite unknown. With 370 mil new owners I doubt held to sell. Not very much power with 3.9 bil OS
I'm not thinking darkside there. We may have seen all the price action the past month and a half, leading to the closing of the deal.
Guess what. By the end of the day the positive seen at FROZ went down the drain again. HUMM Glad I didn't re-enter yet. LOL The support I thought was there disappeared.
Never mind about FROZ looking good again.
Have to comment on the S&P. Large unexplainable reversal mid day yesterday and largest gap open since Dec 2013 today. Emotion doesn't bode well at the S&P. Don't think direction change will continue. IMO we'll break support, before resistance.
I see nothing interesting in either VOIS or SVFC
FROZ
Looks like it only took 2 days for darkside to get back in and support continuation. Very good sign they have more for sale. Flag chart pattern target is .033. Top resistance has been broken on strong support volume. Re-entry confirmed OK. The standard candle spike exhaustion signal has been taken away quick. FROZ has become interesting again.
After covering the last subjects I thought it is about time to re- post a link I feel all readers can benefit from. While I don't agree 100% with every module presented, who ever does. This site is excellent for 2 reasons. It's video based; you don't need to read a bunch of stuff, then figure out if you understand what you read, by re-reading over and over. And maybe most important, It will give you an idea how much you don't know, you don't know about trading. There are many aspects of trading one should be aware of that effects a traders long term success. Including Psychology of Trading and Money Management.
I doubt any trader uses all aspects of the info provided. But awareness of everything involved in good trading practices, will allow one to pick and choose what will help improve success. Knowledge wise.
IMO a must see video collection.
http://www.informedtrades.com/index.php?page=freetradingcourses
Trade planning
Stops and trailing stops.
Rules based play
I teach one should set a wanted gain sell for every play entered. One should also have an acceptable loss figure for that play. Knowing what you will win or lose and closing orders at those planed locations is probably one of the main reasons for longevity while trading or investing. Use an OCA "one order closes another order" conditional order structure when first entering a play. It doesn't matter if your playing short, mid, or long term. Or the reasoning for the gain expected/wanted. Choosing the loss amount depends on your risk level, yes.
Acceptable loss (stop) could get very involved because of so many different trading styles, time frames, and risk levels. But have no doubt that the selling of a losing trade factor is just as important as any gain one may receive/expect.
I'll start with how I trade/do it. I swing trade on 2 week time frames, with a low risk level. My plan is basic, simple, and clean. I choose plays based on chart pattern targets and pick a loss amount 1/2 the gain expected. That way I need to have 2 losses for each win, to break even and all three plays lose to lose money, after 1 win is in the bank. All things equal; when I plan under an equal position sizing strategy. Position sizing is another subject, one should learn about for trade planning. My acceptable loss is easy to calculate. For a 10% gain, I set my stop at down 5% from entry.
Non rules based play
Now say I base my play on a gut feeling or fundamentals which project a price level being reached over 3 months. Or any other option for playing. I still have a gain wanted/expected. I'm out of my normal trade style and want to pick a stop price.
Many pro traders use the moving averages support levels for this. Say the 50MA or 100, 200 MAs. Others will involve volatility in the stocks history. The TA indicator ATR can be used for this, or one can just look at a charts history and eye ball price flux to keep from being stopped out to easily by the normal up's and downs for the stock.
So if one is looking for an acceptable loss without a rules based plan. Two main factors should be though about. Where support is and how far average price swings happen at your stock. There are other chart indicators that can be used, including the SAR overlay which many use for stops.
Support is easy, volatility not so much. Here's a TIP: Using the ATR indicators value, double it or 1.5 times it, to place a stop below entry. The ATR indicator changes with price swing changes over time. So during large price flux periods the number will be high and small when daily price flux is tight. I wouldn't change the parameter from 14, if holding under 6 months. But if your investing long you could move it to 30 days.
The indicator number/value is equal to the stocks price hi & low for the day, averaged over the time parameter use. (standard 14 days) So think of it as a price number, not a graph plot number. If your looking at a $10 stock and the ATR is .40. The 14 day average price swing is 40 cents. To keep yourself from being stopped out easily; low risk could be 80 cents (double) for your stop. And say 60 cents (1.5 times) for mid risk or 40 cents (at ATR value) for high risk of getting stopped out.
As for the SAR, just put the stop at the charts dot price below on the chart. SAR can be deceptive as it works best during trending stocks and can fail as a good stop choice if used while times of sideways price channeling.
RECAP: when playing without a rule based plan. IMO First: 1.5 times the ATR TA indicators value is a good choice. Second: support at the 50 MA for swing trades, 100 for position trades and 200 day for over 6 month plays works well. Third: SAR dot location works well in up trending plays.
Now that we have "finding a stop" has been covered, lets get into when the trailing stop may be advantageous over a stop. Ps; I don't recommend using an out right sell stop when trading. Use a stop limit or stop market order. They reside in your brokers computer platform and don't go to the open market for execution, till your restrictions are reached. Keeping the risk of manipulation closing your open market order off the book.
The trailing stop will increase with price automatically. Giving you upside gain, but keeping down side risk in place. So if your play approaches gain target. It's always a good idea to conceder placing a trailing stop on your play for that last possible hurrah. And removing what ever protection was in place up to that point.
You can take advantage of the up trend by removing your OCA gain/loss order and place a trailing stop on. Since you have already gotten the expected gain target, or just about, keeping your trailing stop tight is a good idea. This is where even with a rules based plan the ATR indicator can be employed. I use the most recent ATR value with no multiple.
One can get creative with trailing stops once some gain is established in a play. I often place a trailing stop mid way to target. Keeping the entry price as my stop level. Example; your play is up 10%, place a trailing stop at 10%, so worst case is break even. or 5% trailing stop to protect 5% of the gain gotten. But until some level of gain has been established. I recommend using a solid OCA bracketed trade order. With sell limit for gain and sell stop limit for acceptable loss.
Heads up - Anyone in FROZ has 45 minutes to take profits IMO. Your seeing a day 3 exhaustion candle spike. Expected Red day tomorrow will signal retrace start.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FROZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p89181368018
I call someone holding under a month a swing trader, from 1 month to 3 months a position trader and 3 to 6 month + an investor.
Exit strategies are personal, just like entry. But IMO a bear market exit needs no strategy, Because by the time the market becomes bear, most of ones personal exit strategies should have already taken them out. The goal of going to the sidelines is to avoid being taken out.
IMO the problem you have is needing a 30% gain before putting on a trailing stop. There is something wrong with what you posted. If your acceptable loss is 4% below entry, the trailing stop should go on the day you buy, not at a 30% gain.
Yea the American exchange has a long standing history of taking out stop orders on people.
Any order type which resides in your brokers computer system until execution levels are reached, should be free of unwanted eyes until your restrictions are hit. It is unusual though, that a broker allows market or stop orders on OTC stocks, now days.
MCIG You can play the same chart at PMCM for smaller price and larger gains. Not saying do that. Just an example of similar charts. But always Remember the lower the price the larger the gain in trading. If 2 charts are similar, go small. IMO Especially on the OTC.
You need to research those which are available and choose what you feel comfortable with. I just posted where one can do some research.
The thing about buying high is if your happy with the present dividend, you can always try to lower your basis, increasing ROI by adding during retraces. But do the math and understand if your in large at first, it takes large new buys to bring the basis down. If one starts small, say 1/4 of what the plan for investing in dividend stocks is, you can add 3 times on 3 retraces.
As with all investing, not swing trading, it's all in the numbers. So spend some time learning how a 4 step in strategy works vs 3,2 or 1 step and the advantages and disadvantages for each. It's just math.
By the way, lowering dividend stock basis is the only time I recommend averaging down !
Any interested in Dividend paying REITs, can check at Finviz.
Diversified
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&f=ind_reitdiversified,sec_financial&o=-dividendyield
Residential
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&f=ind_reitresidential,sec_financial&o=-dividendyield
I was in CIM for several years, before I moved to NYMT and just picked up ARR, for monthly income.
You can check dividend history here; http://www.dividendinvestor.com/
And click "Dividends paid since" for recent calendar.
Correction my REIT is NYMT, not NYTM
And add ARR, but it pays out monthly. Not so good for down markets as they have an opportunity to reduce payout quicker. But it's a good divvy play.
NYMT has been berry berry good to me. LOL pulling in 18% divvy lately, because I got Basis down adding on buying ops to @ $5.90. Stock price was $8 bucks, now $7.45 if I was to sell.
I don't think it will have a comeback for several technical and experience reasons.
But your correct. TA indicators are looking positive. I wish you'd use short term indicators, over long, on a short term prediction though. MACD & RSI are better for 3 to 6 month investments, then swing trading.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMBS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p21129426096
MY Swing trade setup shows entry/exit indicators 5,10,20 MAs tight, DMI the DI- & DI+ are close, with ADX hovering around strong move coming @15 and BBands are tight/pinching. ScotchRSI "BE IN" & CMF "sell pressure" conflict in the support indicators are saying accumulation/consolidation.
But chart wise there's a descending triangle and it's in the early stages of the walk down period, after a Temp Job run.
IRCE
It's a non reporting PINK stock. It has no volume to trade. No business information in any SEC filings. And the other businesses management is involved with are not publicly traded. All good reasons not to trade. Ps; The OS is 800 mil not 800k.
Other then 3 large lightning price & volume spikes, with zero news or info about the company. I see no reason anyone would look at it. And after looking, I wouldn't touch it with a 10' pole.
Caution
Question; did you get charged 2 trade fees? or 1 for both
Up dated PCFG comments again
If the 1st time burned posters at PCFG message board thinks they can hold back a new fleecing at PCFG. Good luck. OTC market stocks run because Venture Capital Firms have large cash amounts invested in companies for cheap shares, and they want a return on their investments, by selling their stock, to retail, for large profits in manipulated runs.
Looking at the share structure of PCFG in the latest (just released) 10Q, it's crying; Big Guys need to sell !!! And the big guys are not the hated management. They already dumped their notes and conversion rights to 3 VC's, with debit note reassignments.
Asher Enterprises, Inc., Magna Group, LLC., Iconic Holdings, LLC
After the second larger 2013 R/Split to 27 mil OS, the next 10Q reported a new OS of 49 mil. Now after this next Q, and up to March 2014, the OS has become 728 mil. That's a chit load of new cash debit converted into shares owned and debit notes still available, wanting to be converted and sold for profits.
-------------------------------------------------
10k
ITEM 12. SECURITY OWNERSHIP OF CERTAIN BENEFICIAL OWNERS AND MANAGEMENT AND RELATED STOCKHOLDER MATTERS
The following table sets forth, as of March 26, 2014, the name and shareholdings of each person who owns of record, or was known by us to own beneficially*, 5% or more of the 727,730,261 shares of the common stock currently issued and outstanding as of March 26, 2014; the name and shareholdings, of each director; and the shareholdings of all executive officers and directors as a group.
NAME OF PERSON OR GROUP NUMBER OF SHARES OWNED * PERCENTAGE OF OWNERSHIP
[color=red]Mitchell Geisler (1) 142,868 - ±
Robert Landau (1)(2) 25,293,699 - 3.5%
Asher Enterprises, Inc. (3) 75,166,144 - 9.9%
Magna Group, LLC (4) 75,166,144 - 9.9%
Iconic Holdings, LLC (5) 75,166,144 - 9.9%
[/color]
All executive officers and directors as a group (two persons)
25,436,567 - 3.5%
______________
* Beneficial ownership is determined in accordance with the rules of the Securities and Exchange Commission and generally includes voting or investment power with respect to securities. Shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of options or warrants currently exercisable or convertible within 60 days, are deemed outstanding (the OS) for computing the percentage ownership of the person holding such options or warrants but are not deemed outstanding for computing the percentage ownership of any other person.
± Represents less than 1%
______________
(1) The person’s business address is c/o Pacific Gold Corp., 157 Adelaide Street West, Suite 600, Toronto, Ontario, M5H 4E7.
(2) Includes 62,085 shares of common stock owned by Jabi Inc., 25,000,000 shares issuable upon the conversion of convertible preferred shares held by Jabi Inc. and 28,712 shares issuable upon the conversion of convertible notes held by Jabi Inc. Mr. Landau is the sole shareholder and director of Jabi Inc. and exercises voting and dispositive power over the shares of common stock beneficially owned by Jabi Inc.
(3) Holds notes convertible into 179,497,667 of common shares, subject to a holding limit of 9.9%.
(4) Holds notes convertible into 272,568,182 of common shares, subject to a holding limit of 9.9%.
(5) Holds notes convertible into 82,008,545 of common shares, subject to a holding limit of 9.9%.
As of March 20, 2014 the Company believes that there are well over 7,000 shareholders of record and beneficial holders of our common stock who hold through brokerage and similar accounts.
--------------------------------------------------
My comments;
Insiders/VC's own 250,934,969 shares
VC's hold debit conversion rights to 534,074,397
total equaling 785,009,363 of the OS.
There is a small 57 mil discrepancy in the report, when my calculations were done. Common for the OTC. Showing big guys owned more then the OS. Also I wouldn't worry much about retail owned, as it was cut to nearly nothing after the last Reverse split. 27 mil total. Mainly remember the dilution came from the last q to this q, where the OS jumped again from 49 mil to 728 mil or 679 mil in todays shares. 679 million shares for sale. 250 mil available right away and 534 mil needing conversion.
From D - Notice of Exempt Offering of Securities
No prospectus required.
It just means the company sold securities without registration. Usually to insiders, as off market investments.
Prospectus required
If a sale of stock was through a public offering, the investment shares are normally registered and not exempt from the added prospectus paperwork.
Registration Makes shares available to trade on the open market.
Their not selling. Their buying company treasury shares as investments.
I have a plan trading style. One has to keep an eye on the over all market along with your portfolio. And for plan priority, over all market comes first. Sometimes I throw out the baby with the bath water, when a go to the sideline plan, is executed. And don't enter any new not stocks for any reason while there. It's just how I trade.
This time I threw out FWLT for a nice profit, but it continues to give more. Also dumped MSFT which did follow the market down. But that trade was at it's plan end target of $41 anyway. I was letting it ride on a trailing stop that just hadn't closed yet. Other positions balanced out for an over all gain. But had not reached targets yet. FWLT is the one I wish I didn't have to lose yet. As the flag target was 50 cents higher and it looks like it's going there, after today. LOL
This time on the sidelines, it's going to take S&P 1890 break for re-entry. I just don't like the whipstall since the "V" bottom.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FWLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p77254602323
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64277621450
If your broker was a Market maker it would make a little more sense. As they have the ability to front trade more easily then a standard broker. But some how the two tier OTC market trading system was scalped. And your order was front traded many times some how. I have no idea, but I'd contact my broker right away. I see no way once your order was broken up it didn't stay first in the order queue. And when the next matching trade came in it didn't go toward your order.
I posted about using a AON order when trading last week. That directs your broker to only close the order if a matching order in size exists. And they can't break your order up into smaller matches.
Since the high frequency trading subject has become a hot topic at media outlets again. I've become vocal again. Here's an old video on HFT, I posted back in 2012 & 13. Cool when one see's the change.
2007 to 2013 Ps; keep an eye on the jump late 2008 months 7, 8, 9 when the market crashed.
Finally I found something which explains my many 2012/13 rants condemning high freq trading. And how quants from MIT and the like were creating genius algorithm which front trade everyone in the market, with new trade order types at exchanges. Hence HFT orders. Taking hundreds of millions of dollars from billions of, tenths of a cent, arbitrage trades in microseconds. And most importantly, this is NOT good for the market anyone trades. That the creators and users of HFT tells the exchanges and market is a great market improvement. And horribly worst, that the SEC knows this and does nothing about it, because who notices a tenth/hundredth of a cents or their lack of knowledge can't understand how to correct the misbalance in the market.
Have an hour to understand?
Thanks for the heads up, but it's too late for me now. LOL If I moved it from watch, to strong watch. I would have had a standing buy order @ .0045, above the .004 old resistance level. Missed another one. Would have, could have, been up 60% today. Funny, no volume change??? But filled the gap. Looks like a high manipulation day, today.
VGPR
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VGPR&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p33155482809
Has everyone noticed the switch from Pot stocks, to all kinds of companies popping up lately. The OTC operates on cycles. Something too remember. Spring & Fall, an new rush of hot stock plays.
Went to the sidelines last week and haven't been around. Was cool, needed a break. Will check in from time to time, but the market has become a secondary factor of life, till things look different on the big boards. Only trading stock I hold is PMCM, on the OTC, sold half @ .006, holding free shares +/- and waiting for the next pop.