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shmolton, re MFLX
I came close to buying last August when they announced some strong Q3 numbers. Stock was around $8. But on the CC, management was very standoffish and refused to give any guidance. You could tell the analysts were angry. Stock was punished down to $6. Then a week later, management comes out with a PR detailing their Q4 guidance! LOL
I didn't listen to the last CC, but it appears they're guiding for sequentially higher revenues and sequentially lower net income of $7-$9M. With the stock already at $16, I don't know how much Q1 earnings of .29-.37/share is going to help the price. If they hit the high end of that guidance (or exceed it) with some bullish commentary on Q2, the stock should pop a few bucks. But I would guess there's an equal chance the company comes in at the low end of expectations and guides for sequentially lower EPS in Q2.
I wouldn't be comfortable holding MFLX into earnings even though the comp will look terrific. As others have noted, being so dependent on one customer also makes this one an extremely risky play.
I'm not sure why the rebound in SWTX, but I'm happy to let some go around $1.50. Thanks to gilead, we learned that they are indeed forecasting single digit growth in 2005. Even though the number of units shipped will be higher, the price per unit will be much less. I think this could spell big trouble for margins. They do have an easy Q4 comp coming up, and the stock could get a pop. But I would expect the comments on the conference call to be much more cautious than they were on the Q3 CC. It appears 2005 could be a year of sequential revenue declines and eroding profit margins.
stock peeker, re FORD
Earnings should be out this week if history is any guide. Stock has been moving up the past few trading sessions. From $3.60's to $4.40's. They should have a good report based on comments in last earnings PR, plus they have an easy comp. But I'm not sure how much upside is left. I sold half my shares for a quick 20%.
yield, re HSR
The report is a little disappointing. As you said, earnings were hurt by expansion costs. But the .07 number vs. .09 last year looks bad. Hopefully you took some profits on the big run the stock has had in recent months. Considering that price increase and the tough comp they had, holding into earnings did not seem like a favorable risk/reward situation. My guess is the stock heads back to the $4 level.
kozuh and linuspop, re DCU
kozuh...I don't think anyone said otherwise? It's right there in the PR and the 8K filing.
linuspop...I agree completely. We've got a large $5 Billion dollar company licensing the tech from a tiny $16 Million dollar company. I don't know how this is anything but a huge boost for DCU! If the dryers sell well, I think Whirlpool may just scrape together some pocket change and acquire DCU.
Bob, I think it's already there! haha
Bought as high as $3.25 after the news last week. Ouch!
Are you getting any of this one? Maybe next week in the $1's?
Sheesh! DCU down in the $2.20's. Now I know why I stick to value stocks! LOL
A bunch of shares available at $2.30. Don't understand this slide. Stock was over $3 just two days ago. Even if it just gets back there in the next few months, we're talking a 30%+ gain.
linuspop, re DCU
You're doing better than I am. Bought most of mine over $3 even though I figured a pullback was likely. Think it will continue to drift a little lower with the overall market weakness. Hard to see it going all the way back to $2. You'd think downside would be limited with the new Whirlpool agreement that could provide "significant finacial returns" to DCU.
Not sure if the $350K will be recognized in fiscal Q2 or fiscal Q3. Guess we'll know in a few weeks when Q2 is reported. I'm actually hoping it's in Q3, as that should be a very favorable comp. The $350K license fee will add .05 in EPS alone. Hopefully royalties will exceed that in a few quarters. Based on the expansion announced last summer (PR below), we may get a greater contribution from operations as well.
Let us know about the royalties. If it's sooner rather than later, maybe they'll increase the annual dividend up to .08-.10/share.
Alan I. Greenstein Acquires Significant Stake in DRYCLEAN USA, Inc.; Company Also Announces Expansion of Marketing Territory
WEDNESDAY, JULY 28, 2004 2:12 PM
- BusinessWire
MIAMI, Jul 28, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- DRYCLEAN USA, Inc. (DCU) , announced that Alan I. Greenstein, who joined the Company recently as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, had acquired a 21.5% equity position in the Company from the Company's two principal stockholders. It is expected that Mr. Greenstein will also be elected a director of the Company. Mr. Greenstein's responsibilities cover all aspects of the Company's sales and marketing operations.
In announcing the transaction, Michael Steiner, President of DRYCLEAN USA, noted that: "Mr. Greenstein brings to the Company a wealth of experience in revenue growth strategies earned as an entrepreneur of a number of successful businesses, including a Thrifty Car Rental franchise and a chain of retail dry cleaning and laundry stores in Southeast Florida. Mr. Greenstein, with a partner, acquired a Thrifty Car Rental business in 2001 with an existing fleet of 1,800 vehicles. Within three years, the franchise grew to a fleet of 7,500 vehicles with revenues exceeding $82 million. The business was then acquired by Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group, Inc., the national franchisor. Previously, Mr. Greenstein developed a chain of retail dry cleaning and laundry stores and directed all aspects of their sales and marketing and operations."
Mr. Steiner added, "In addition to his sales responsibilities, Mr. Greenstein will also be charged with examining growth opportunities for our Company, including through acquisitions."
Separately, the Company announced the expansion of the distribution territory for its existing product lines. Venerando Indeliccto, Chief Financial Officer, stated: "The Company now has increased representation for its commercial laundry equipment in Tampa Bay, Orlando and Jacksonville in addition to its historical southeast Florida base." Several additional sales engineers, specializing in commercial laundry equipment were added to cover the new territory.
Mr. Greenstein, under whose auspices this expansion will take place, said: "I am very excited about the future prospects of the Company and am looking forward to helping the Company increase its revenues and achieve its goals."
DRYCLEAN USA, Inc. is one of the largest franchise and license operations in the dry cleaning industry, currently consisting of over 400 franchised and license stores in the United States, the Caribbean and Latin America. Founded in 1960, its dry cleaning and laundry machinery division is also one of the nation's leading distributors of industrial laundry equipment, dry cleaning machines and steam boilers.
This press release contains certain information that is subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and trends to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Information concerning such factors are discussed in Company reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
SOURCE: DRYCLEAN USA, Inc.
DRYCLEAN USA, Inc., Miami
Michael Steiner, 305/754-4551
or
Venerando Indelicato, 813/814-0722
TMED.OB out with their 10K tonight. It looked like they had a strong Q4, but then I saw this:
From 10K:
NOTE 3. CHANGE IN ESTIMATE
Based upon management's review of the Company's inventories at September 30,
2004, which considered the inventory turnover rates and projected future usages,
management concluded that the reserve on inventories, which was primarily a
general reserve, required an adjustment to reduce the reserve by $290,000. As a
result, during the fourth quarter of the year ended September 30, 2004, the
Company reversed $290,000 of this reserve, which resulted in a decrease of cost
of sales and an increase in income before income taxes.
So it appears Q4 earnings were more like .015/share instead of the .03-.04/share they first appeared to be. Darn.
wade, re SWTX
I was disappointed by the presentation. Considering the huge turnaround, you'd think they would be a little more excited about the future. I don't think that presentation attracted many potential investors.
The revenue outlook was confusing. The way it said single digit growth "into" 2005, I'm hoping they're talking sequential quarterly growth. Q4 and Q1 should have revenues up 40-50% from the prior year, so I don't know how they could say single digit growth. It certainly would go against the optimism in the last CC.
Since they haven't reported Q4 yet, I don't think they meant 2005 revenues would be up single digits over 2004. If you figure $16.5M in Q4 revenue, that would be about $58M for 2004. They would only have to average $16M in quarterly revenue in 2005 to get 10% annual revenue growth...so a forecast for single digit growth would be a real downer.
I'd say so Rainman, seems to be a little panic selling in the last hour today. Hard to buy much of anything right now. They just seem to get cheaper the next day.
kozuh, it is a royalty on each dryer sold with the new tech. Plus they will get royalties on the kits to retrofit existing dryers.
From 8K:
On January 3, 2005, DRYCLEAN USA, Inc. (the "Company") entered into a
Patent License Agreement with Whirlpool Corporation ("Whirlpool") in which the
Company granted Whirlpool an exclusive license until December 31, 2008 and
thereafter a non-exclusive license to make and sell laundry appliances
incorporating the Company's patent applications and other intellectual property
related to fabric treatment technology for improving the drying and refreshing
of garments in home clothes dryers. In consideration for the grant of the
license and to reimburse the Company for its time, effort and development costs,
Whirlpool is to pay the Company a $350,000 fee. In addition, Whirlpool is to pay
the Company a per unit royalty for dryers using the licensed technology that are
sold during the three year period following the first sale following commercial
production of dryers using the license technology, as well as a to-be-negotiated
royalty with respect to the sale of licensed after market kits (to retrofit
existing home dryers) for which the Company has retained marketing rights but
granted Whirlpool a non-exclusive license.
OT kozuh, re SCLD
I would believe that. I probably wasn't that impressed a year ago for good reason. Appears the caution was warranted as the company went on to post a string of ugly quarters with decreasing revenues and sizable losses.
Now if you had predicted the Q4 turnaround based on upon recent order announcements/backlog (like Rawnoc did), that would have been an excellent call.
rrat, looks like Marathon Capital has boosted their PIHC stake by about 300,000 shares over the past year.
Darn, BOOM rebounding today. Thought market weakness may take it down to the $7's before earnings in a few weeks. They earned .22/share from cont. operations in Q3 and gave a very bullish outlook on Q4. Backlog increases bode well. In the 10Q, it said the majority of a $5M order will ship in Q4. I'm looking for Q4 earnings of .30+/share. Should be a very favorable comp vs. prior year.
DCU has pulled back to the $2.70's. They announced a licensing deal with Whirlpool earlier this month. Stock went up to about $3.50 on the news. DCU will receive a $350K license fee plus a royalty on each dryer sold. Not a low P/E, but this seems like an exciting development for this little company.
DRYCLEAN USA, Inc. Enters into an Agreement with Whirlpool Corporation
Tuesday January 4, 9:01 am ET
DRYCLEAN USA's Patent Technology to Be Used in New Home Appliance
MIAMI--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 4, 2005--DRYCLEAN USA, Inc. (AMEX:DCU - News) today announced it has signed an exclusive license agreement with Whirlpool Corporation of Benton Harbor, Michigan (NYSE:WHR - News), licensing the use of DRYCLEAN USA's patent technology on home appliances.
The agreement calls for Whirlpool to pay a one-time licensing fee and royalties during the three year period following the introduction of Whirlpool manufactured products using the innovative new technology. After this period Whirlpool will retain a non-exclusive license and DRYCLEAN USA is free to license its technology to other manufacturers.
The agreement represents a culmination of ongoing technical cooperation between DRYCLEAN USA and Whirlpool with the goal of improving at-home garment drying and refreshing.
DRYCLEAN USA will retain the rights to market retrofit kits, designed to upgrade existing home laundry appliances.
Venerando J. Indelicato, Chief Financial Officer of DRYCLEAN USA, stated that, "this agreement could provide the Company with significant financial returns over the life of this license agreement and thereafter." He continued, " We believe our technology, which has already proven successful in commercial laundry machines, should outperform other devices presently on the market."
DRYCLEAN USA, Inc. through its subsidiaries is one of the nation's leading distributors of industrial laundry, dry cleaning machines and steam boilers. Its subsidiary, DRYCLEAN USA License Corp, is one of the largest franchise and license operations in the dry cleaning industry, currently consisting of over 400 franchised and license stores in the United States, the Caribbean and Latin America.
This press release contains certain information that is subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and trends to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Information concerning such factors are discussed in Company reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
DRYCLEAN USA. Inc., Miami
Michael Steiner, 305-754-4551
or
Venerando Indelicato, 813-814-0722
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: DRYCLEAN USA. Inc.
Thanks MSGI. Good call by Rawnoc. Listening to the CC right now. Management seems pretty upbeat. Sounds like Q1 and Q2 revenues will be even stronger than Q4! Overall lousy market conditions may keep a lid on it short-term, but I think SCLD could see $3-$4 in a few months.
Len, re CTIG
Here's an excerpt from the Q2 earnings PR last August:
The Company reported a net loss of approximately $430 thousand or two cents a share in the second quarter 2004 compared to a net loss of approximately $13 thousand or zero cents a share in the second quarter 2003. The increased loss in the second quarter was primarily attributable to increased legal costs associated with patent enforcement activities.
Commenting on the results, Brad Houlberg, President and CEO, stated, "We are encouraged by the continued increase in revenues for the year. The five consecutive quarterly increases in revenues when compared to the similar periods in the prior years are indicative of the Company gaining momentum. Although we incurred greater patent enforcement costs in the second quarter, we believe those efforts will yield favorable results in subsequent quarters."
Anyone still following SCLD? Looks like a big Q4 turnaround with earnings of about .05/share (before nonrecurring charge) on strong revenue increase. Any idea if these numbers are sustainable or if the bottom line could improve further? CC starts at 11am EST.
wade, re SWTX earnings
Tough to say. The company was in trouble in early 2004...delisting from Nasdaq, CFO change, Needham financing, etc. The Q4 numbers weren't released until 4/15/04. I think they'll be out in March this year. Maybe February if they're really on the ball (and the numbers are really good!).
wade, re PIHC
I guess I don't see dilution as a concern here. The balance sheet is ok. I've seen growing, profitable companies with MUCH weaker balance sheets that didn't require any dilution.
PIHC secured an expanded credit line in October. That, plus increased profits in the coming quarters, should be more than enough to fund operations.
Pioneer Behavioral Health Announces Expanded Credit Line
Wednesday October 20, 9:16 am ET
CapitalSource Finance LLC to Provide $3.5 Million Credit Facility
PEABODY, Mass., Oct. 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- PHC, Inc., d.b.a. Pioneer Behavioral Health (OTC Bulletin Board: PIHC - News), a leading provider of inpatient and outpatient behavioral health services and pharmaceutical research, today announced it has secured an expanded line of credit, secured with its accounts receivables, totaling $3.5 million. The line of credit is provided by CapitalSource Finance LLC, and replaces Pioneer's former bank.
Bruce A. Shear, Pioneer Behavioral Health's President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "This new, expanded line of credit will provide the additional working capital to allow us to achieve our previously announced revenue growth strategy, including the recently announced expansion of our subsidiary, Detroit Behavioral Institute, Inc. at the Detroit Medical Center. As a specialty lender with a focus on healthcare, CapitalSource Finance is a proven partner in debt and equity financings, and we look forward to a mutually productive relationship going forward."
About CapitalSource
CapitalSource is a specialized commercial finance company offering asset-based, senior, cash flow and mezzanine financing to small and mid-sized borrowers through three focused lending groups: Corporate Finance, Healthcare Finance and Structured Finance. By offering a broad array of financial products, CapitalSource had outstanding more than $4.7 billion in loan commitments as of June 30, 2004. For more information visit www.CapitalSource.com.
About Pioneer Behavioral Health
Pioneer Behavioral Health operates companies that provide inpatient and outpatient behavioral health care services, clinical research and Internet- and telephonic-based referral services. The companies contract with national insurance companies, government payors, and major transportation and gaming companies, among others, to provide such services. For more information, please visit www.phc-inc.com or www.haydenir.com.
Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: This press release may include "forward-looking statements" that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements include information about possible or assumed future results of the operations or the performance of the company and its future plans and objectives. Various future events or factors may cause the actual results to vary materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made in this press release. For a discussion of these factors and risks, see the company's annual report on Form 10-KSB for the most recently ended fiscal year.
Company Contact:
PHC, Inc.
Bruce A. Shear
978-536-2777
Investor Relations Contact:
Hayden Communications, Inc.
Matthew Hayden
843-272-4653
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Pioneer Behavioral Health
CTIG.OB had some news tonight. New web-based product launched. Should boost revenues (and hopefully earnings). Probably won't move the stock, but a positive development. Profitable company trading at .36, with .27/share in cash. CTIG has gotten some billion dollar companies to pay for their patents, and they're going after others. Think the stock could see a run over .50 in the coming months.
CTI Group Launches SmartBill Connect
Wednesday January 12, 5:54 pm ET
INDIANAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 12, 2005--CTI Group (Holdings) Inc. (OTCBB:CTIG - News), an international provider of billing management and transaction analysis software, has launched SmartBill® Connect - a web-based invoice management solution for service providers and enterprises. SmartBill® Connect enables interactive invoice management, analysis and reporting empowering enterprise customers to manage their telecommunications environment through 360 degree visibility into their business communications expenditures.
CTI President and CEO Brad Houlberg states, "We are extremely excited about introducing the innovative SmartBill® Connect platform to the Service Provider community. SmartBill® Connect offers the Service Provider a truly compelling and differentiating product that provides them the opportunity for increased revenue through new customer acquisition and customer retention while offering them the benefit of significantly reducing invoicing costs."
SmartBill® Connect offers Service Providers a full range of eBusiness capabilities that build upon their existing investments in technology - preserving the full functionality of current systems - while allowing them to service and support future customer growth. SmartBill® Connect integrates with provider's evolving online eBusiness strategy and provides enterprise customers with customized access to their provider's eBusiness portal. The SmartBill® Connect architecture ensures rapid integration without compromising availability, performance, security, scalability, or language conversion.
According to Adrian Burt, Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing for CTI, "SmartBill® Connect gives the Service Provider the ability to transform the process of billing presentment and usage analysis from a loss leader to profit center."
Mr. Burt will formally introduce the SmartBill® Connect and Proteus(TM) product suites at SmartSummit, CTI's annual product exposition to be held February 22-24, 2005 in Orlando, FL. For additional information regarding SmartSummit as well as SmartBill® Connect and Proteus(TM), visit www.smartsummit.biz.
CTI Group is headquartered in Indianapolis, IN and maintains a European office in London. For more information, please visit CTI Group's website at www.ctigroup.com.
Safe Harbor Statement This press release contains "forward-looking" statements. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to statements of assumptions underlying other statements and statements about the Company and its business relating to the future; and any statements using the words "could", "should", "anticipate", "expect", "may", "project", "intend" "will" or similar expressions. The Company's ability to predict projected results or the effect of events on the Company's operating results is inherently uncertain. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in this document. In addition to information provided elsewhere in this document, shareholders should consider the following: the risk that the Company will not be able to attract and retain customers to purchase its products, the risk that the Company will not be able to commercialize and market products; results of research and development; technological advances by third parties; competition; future capital needs of the Company; history of operating losses; dependence upon key personnel and general economic and business conditions. Readers are referred to documents filed by CTI Group with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
CTI Group (Holdings) Inc., Indianapolis
Todd Rockey, 317-262-4666
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: CTI Group (Holdings) Inc.
Rainman, re HQSM
Thanks for the post, but I'm not sure how you can say the August acquisition didn't play a role in the large increase in the numbers last quarter? It is clearly mentioned in both the earnings PR and the 10Q.
From earnings PR:
"Revenues for the quarter increased by $3,930,302, or 105%, to $7,665,287 from $3,734,985 in the corresponding period of 2003. The increase was attributed to HQSM's acquisition of Sealink, the sole owner of Hainan Jiahua Marine Bio-Products Co., Ltd. ("Jiahua Marine"), in August 2004 and the resulting inclusion of Sealink's revenues as part of the quarterly results. Also contributing to the rise in revenue was the increase in HQ's production activity following the re-opening of its reconstructed and expanded processing plant."
The question seems to be be how much of the increase was from the acquisition and how much from the plant re-opening. Can't find the answer to that. Even if most was from acquisition, that didn't occur until a few weeks into the quarter...so current quarter should include a full 3 months of operations. So Q4 could be better than Q3 if there's no seasonality.
Thanks yield for posting that article. Astonishing to see the ignorance that exists out there. The person who asked the question said he hasn't seen any change in the fundamentals? How can you miss an earnings release???
Then the "expert" basically says every OTC:BB stock is risky junk that should be avoided. The undervalued company with growing revenues and profits is apparently lumped in with the POS with no revenues, negative earnings, and billions of shares O/S. OTC:BB and pink sheets...apparently the same thing. Instead, go find a nice bloated large cap. Stick with those because there's plenty available! haha
I guess that just means there will be more people to discover the world of value microcaps in the years ahead. :)
Rainman, I guess I'm still confused. I assume you're talking trailing 12-months. CGNW is not profitable on that basis due to a large 1-time loss in the quarter ended March 2004. I can understand why you would want to wait and see 4 profitable quarters in a row, but you're also going to miss most of the turnaround plays. I've been disappointed by CGNW twice, so am not that confident they can continue to earn .02+/share per quarter. But IF they can, stock should more than double from here.
Since you rely on annual profitability, I'm surprised to see your glowing recommendation of HQSM. Besides the usual concerns regarding the reliability of the financials of a Chinese operation, this one has additional questions. Without the 1-time gain, they earned .012/share last quarter. The huge increase in revenues and earnings was due to an acquisition. Hard to tell if these numbers are sustainable. What about seasonality? I would imagine there would be a slowdown in the winter quarters.
There are already 77M shares O/S. According to the last 10Q, there was a note that was to convert into another 15.7M shares plus 100,000 preferred shares in November. What are the terms of the preferred? Sounds like there will be at least 92M shares O/S now. Could be a candidate for a reverse split.
NOTE 8 - SUBSEQUENT EVENTS (Convertible Note)
In connection with the acquisition of Jiahua Marine Bio Products, the Company
issued a note payable to the seller in the amount of $11,111,345. The note,
dated August 17, 2004, was renegotiated and is convertible into 15,730,493
shares of common stock and 100,000 shares of preferred stock of the Company. In
addition, all accrued interest will be paid through the date of the conversion.
The conversion is expected to occur on or about November 14, 2004.
Rainman, CGNW earned .027/share last quarter. That's not profitable?
FORD should report fiscal Q1 earnings next week. They had a strong Q4 and were bullish on the first 2 quarters of the new fiscal year. Of course, the CEO of this company always seems to be optimistic. But they should have a favorable comp. Hopefully earnings of .08-.10/share vs. .03/share last year. Solid balance sheet with .70/share in cash. Low float mania has died down, but could still get a pop.
PIHC.OB down to 1.33 X 1.34. Added a few more. Earned .043/share in Q1 vs. breakeven. Revenues up 30%. Comments from management were very bullish. Should have a favorable Q2 comp coming up in a few weeks. Think they could earn .05/share vs. breakeven on 25% revenue growth.
Interesting spread on CTIG.OB. Sitting at .359 X .3591. Company has an excellent balance sheet with .27/share in cash. Strong results last quarter. Aided by $600K in patent and enforcement revenue, but there was also $416K in costs for that segment. Earnings still probably would have been .01/share from the other operations. And the patent/enforcement division also recognized revenues in Q1 and Q2...so it doesn't appear to be a 1-time thing.
wade, re SVLF
I remember looking at the earnings report in November. Not a fan of time share stocks, but this company has pretty good numbers. As you said, lack of growth seems to be the problem. Q3 revenues increased 8% last quarter, with earnings of .10/share vs. .09/share (before 1-time gain) the prior year. Also some seasonality to the business, with upcoming Q4 being the weakest quarter of the year.
From 10K:
Our sales are seasonal in nature.
Our sales of Vacation Intervals have generally been lower in the months of November and December. Cash flow and earnings may be impacted by the timing of development, the completion of future resorts, and the potential impact of weather or other conditions in the regions where we operate. Our quarterly operating results could be negatively impacted by these factors.
It looks like Q4 is usually a small loss, although a $1.3M gain in October should pad the numbers. Annual earnings comp will look good, and the stock could get a pop. But I doubt it'll be much considering the minimal growth on both the top and bottom lines.
researcher, I'm actually a little suprised WSTF did so well today after a big pop on Friday. A lot of the low floaters seem to have come back to earth in 2005 (and rightfully so). Wish I had shorted NGPS instead of ANTP. Down about 50% in a week!
WSTF closed at $6.47, near the high of the day! Yeehaw!! Can't believe this one sat in the low $3's for months after such an impressive Q3 turnaround. Patience definitely required. Good thing, as it was pretty boring elsewhere today.
wade, re PIHC
I think we'll see strong revenue growth for the next several quarters. Did you read the 10/14/04 PR...about the new facility contributing $14M in annualized incremental revenue when fully operational? Yowsa! The only question for me is will the bottom line follow suit. I think it will. PIHC probably not a double in 2005, but I don't see much downside at these prices.
Pioneer Behavioral Health Announces Opening of First Phase of Expansion at the Detroit Medical Center
Thursday October 14, 2:27 pm ET
Management Expects Facility to Contribute to Revenue Growth in Second Fiscal Quarter
PEABODY, Mass., Oct. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- PHC, Inc., d.b.a. Pioneer Behavioral Health (OTC Bulletin Board: PIHC - News), a leading provider of inpatient and outpatient behavioral health services and pharmaceutical research today announced the opening of the first 30 beds at the Detroit Medical Center. The Company also received its Michigan state approval for the final 54 acute beds completing the necessary steps to open all 114 beds.
This represents the first 30 of 114 planned acute and long-term psychiatric beds at this leased facility. Alexander Luvall, who joined the Company during September as Executive Vice President, will oversee the facility and ensure a smooth commencement of operations.
Bruce A. Shear, Pioneer Behavioral Health's President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "This announcement represents a milestone achievement for Pioneer, as we have dramatically expanded our inpatient capabilities and capacity in Wayne County with this cooperative lease agreement with the Detroit Medical Center. We will nearly double the number of beds we operate with minimal capital expenditure. In total we estimate capital expenditures of approximately $500,000 to expand the total of number of beds operated from 130 to 244. Once fully operational, we expect this facility to contribute $14 million in annualized incremental revenue, and we anticipate contributions during the Company's second fiscal quarter."
Mr. Shear commented, "These new facilities expand our abilities to meet the significant demand we are seeing for our services in Wayne County. More importantly, we are better positioned to serve the clinical needs of Wayne County residents by providing high quality psychiatric services while allowing our patients to stay close to their families throughout their treatment. We have hired and trained the staff, begun admitting patients, and we look forward to providing this important service to the citizens of Wayne County."
About Pioneer Behavioral Health
Pioneer Behavioral Health's core business provides inpatient and outpatient behavioral healthcare services. The company contracts with national insurance companies, major transportation and gaming companies to provide behavioral health services. Pioneer also owns and operates Wellplace.com, a leading Internet-based provider of behavioral health services to consumers and professionals, and Pivotal Research Centers, Inc. a Nationally recognized clinical research company. For more information, please visit our web site at www.phc-inc.com or www.haydenir.com.
This press release may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements include information about possible or assumed future results of the operations or the performance of the company and its future plans and objectives. Various future events or factors may cause the actual results to vary materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made in this press release. These factors and risks are discussed in the company's annual report on Form 10-KSB for the years ended June 30, 2003 and 2002, copies of which were filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and in our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission since October 2003.
For further information please contact Bruce A. Shear of PHC, Inc., +1-978-536-2777; or Investors, Matthew Hayden of Hayden Communications, Inc., +1-843-272-4653.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Pioneer Behavioral Health
deathtotaxes, re WSTF EDAC
WSTF was looking strong at the open. Gapped up and quickly hit $5.93. Then faded and has been stuck in the high $4's. Think there is more upside to go. Without those 1-time charges, they would have earned about .30/share in Q4. They could earn .10-.15/share in Q1 and Q2, which should be very favorable comps vs. last year.
EDAC has perked up lately. Thought I might be able to accumulate around $1.50 before Q4 earnings in late March. They had an off quarter in Q3, but backlog was strong and the interest savings alone should add .05 to quarterly EPS. So I think Q4 earnings could come in at .05-.10/share.
I'm a big believer in diversification, so I usually don't buy too much of any one stock. If I think a stock is particularly undervalued (like SWTX, PDGE, MANC a few weeks ago), the stake could be 5-10% of my portfolio. But most stocks I own are 2% or less. Volume (or lack thereof) doesn't concern me as much as it does others on this board. But I will shy away from a large spread.
wade, re ERS WTRS
What will earnings look like in 2005? Good question! Hard enough trying to predict what these companies will do next quarter.
As for ERS, they earned a fully taxed .14/share last quarter. They should have a favorable Q4 comp coming up. Earnings have been rising steadily for the past few years...from .12/share in 2001, to .24/share to 2002, to .36/share in 2003, to probably almost .50/share in 2004. I'd guess they can do .60/share in 2005. Stock has perked up this week, but you may be able to get it on a dip to $4. Hard to find a consistent grower with a low P/E and a 4% dividend yield.
WTRS is a riskier play. According to the 8K filing last month, it looks like they would have earned $1/share last fiscal year including the recent acquisition. But that included some 1-time gains that amounted to $980K after tax. So earnings actually would have been more like .60. I'd wait for the stock to fall back a bit before buying. The winter quarters are seasonally slow for them. Comps should be favorable due to acquisition. They might be able to grow the bottom line 20-30% this fiscal year. More of a low float security play than a value microcap.
linuspop, looks like HCAR is up to $1.15 this morning. Nice move since the .70's. Still can't believe it was trading at a P/E below 1 net cash. Large insider buy was certainly encouraging. Still, I don't know how much upside remains considering the lack of growth.
bucfan, re WSTF
Looks like they earned .15/share in Q4 even after some charges. Without the charges of $1.7M and $900K, it seems earnings would have been closer to .30/share! Q4 is their seasonally strongest quarter, but that would have sent the stock flying tomorrow. Think it'll still get a decent pop on the .15/share number, although the PR is somewhat confusing.
OT--steve re ANTP
One of the strangest things I've ever seen. Stock rose from $5 to $50 the last 2 months after calling off a merger and then a resulting low float pump. Insiders and former merger partner were happy to unload at $10, but the stock kept going up. Bubble should have burst this week when they reported sequential declines in revenues, earnings, and backlog. Backlog is at its lowest point in years, most of which time the stock has traded under $5. Stock drops 20% yesterday, then quickly rebounds 20% today. Makes absolutely no sense to me!
This thing is insanely overpriced in the $40's. If they don't receive any new orders soon, they will report a loss in 3 months. Even if they do get a large multi-million dollar order, stock should trade at $10-$15 IMO. I've been trying all day to short more, but there are no shares available. Grrr...
Len, re PIHC
I wasn't talking trailing P/E. I don't think that is a good measure for turnaround plays. Most turnaround companies weren't doing so hot a few quarters ago. If you wait for a low trailing P/E, you will probably miss the boat as it will no longer be a turnaround.
I prefer annualized P/E's. As for PIHC, they earned .043/share in fiscal Q1. Multiply by 4, apply a P/E of 10, and that's where I came up with $1.72. I've found that this is a good way to measure turnaround plays (barring any seasonality). Too aggressive for some, but less so than the forward P/E.
I think PIHC will earn about .05/share in Q2 on revenue growth of 20%+. So the price target should be adjusted higher. Hopefully revenues/earnings will continue to grow...along with the stock price.
p.s. I must have missed that list of a bunch of stocks with P/E's of 6. That's based on the trailing 12-months with no 1-time gains? Any of them with decent top and bottom line growth?
nuts, re JLN
They should post some monster Q2 numbers next month. Fully-taxed earnings could be .50/share or higher. It's their seasonally strongest quarter, though. So I'll be looking to get out if there's a pop to $10.