is... watching & waiting
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Lol
I wonder if transferring Cal's restricted shares is all they need to insinuate an 'ownership' change... no way they bought his 1.69 mil commons. Morrison got 5% of the restricted for his first term as well.
Plenty of shares to be dumped into the pump, Felipe and Green Cures left to do as they wish
The ol VIX waking up +$1.44 to $16.38
S&P should find support at 2022, if not 2011's calling
Leaning towards the latter... short the S&P is my only holding. Would like to see your 1221/23 level prove resistance, may open it up for a lower channel 1200-1220. GDX $19.52 should remain overhead, maybe a $3.45 entry Monday .. if it breaks it goes to $20 and we can ride $3.3 to $3.8 again, just don't want to be holding when USD takes its next breather.
Futures sliding oil $38 handle SPX to test 2020 early ... rough day for the Close Eyes Long Everything portfolio
Take some profit or bet on the holiday weekend becomes the question this afternoon
C'mon Bullard tell us how hawkish you are ... the Dow hasn't been tested with a triple digit day in the red in awhile, show us how strong the economy is!
Couldn't have asked for a better lineup of hawkish Fed speeches yesterday for Gold to crash like a did, just a week out from them punting no less. USD on fire already maybe Bullard helps Dust to another run at 8:15am
Suspect GDX to hold $18.9 if it happens today, if it churns low $19's a session or two it could be able to break below and keep going with some help from Gold. If gold hangs in today it could test a top end of what is a lower channel before testing 1200. The calls for 1150/80 seem extreme at the moment
Bitcoin Price May Test $425-30: Propelling Factors
Jaica Mulera in Analysis
Mar 24, 2016
Bitcoin Price May Test $425-30: Propelling Factors
Bitcoin price BTC to USD has been trading in a narrow edge. The cryptocurrency has been trading higher and has attempted to hit $420.This however has been difficult due to lower consumer confidence and lack of market conviction. Bitcoin price faced some resistance at around $420 to the upside and $400 downwards. Increased demand of this cryptocurrency might help propel prices higher towards $425.
This week, Bitcoin was selling at $421.17 which has no huge difference to the last week. This shows that no huge changes took place for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is known to be the largest cryptocurrency for now. This however does not mean that it does not face challenges. It does as some crypto currencies such as ethereum block chain is not giving it such an easier time. The move by the BTCS to launch platform project aimed at mining ethereum shows that ethereum blockchain is attracting some investors.
The high demand of Bitcoin has been the driving force of higher prices. More people are embracing these digital currencies. The transactions involving these cryptocurrency are cheap, fast and non-hackable. The only problem we have noted is the fact that huge number of transactions affects the system. The system slow-down cause unwanted delays. With huge of customers, the systems need to be updated to avoid similar occurrence in the future.
Impact of demand on Bitcoin price
Increased demand of cards that use bitcoin as a back end can be attributed to higher price of bitcoin. Coinbase is the only available Bitcoin debit card in United States. Others include Wirex and Xapo. Higher demand has been pushing Bitcoin prices higher. High value of the bitcoin can be seen as Bitcoin blockchain auditing and Surveillance Company raised $5.2 million in series A funding.
The recent penetration into the world of Bitcoin is Japan’s online gaming site Gesoten. Japan is one of the countries that legalized cryptocurrency. Coincheck, bitcoin exchange market offers the option to either sell or buy cryptocurrency. In Coincheck, bitcoin has been used in purchasing of the ethereum. The site is in the process of legalizing ethereum in the country. The online gaming site will allow game purchase and subscription using Bitcoin.
The bottom-line
We have seen the reason for Bitcoin price rising higher. This however does not mean that it cannot go lower. Just like any other currency, bitcoin can reach resistance point which can make it stagnate or go lower. For the past two weeks, Bitcoin prices have been playing around $406 to $421.17. This shows the instability of Bitcoin prices.
http://www.fxnewscall.com/bitcoin-price-may-test-425-propelling-factors/1936464/
But 2074 first, right? Lol down another 10 handles PM
No potential double bottom GDX $18.9 had me concerned. I do believe gold is in a long term bull market but flipping Dust as it gets exhausted has been lucrative all March.
Not a fan of charting the ETN itself but the wave theory on the Nug board is somewhat convincing, maybe this starts a bigger run... GDX hasn't spent much time with an $18 handle
Why're we still importing?
Bloody headfake .. gas draw to the rescue again?
Out $3.71 GL fellas
Finger on the trigger but USD's in our corner, $1218 and still making lows... GDX $19.52 broke, looks like she's heading to $19.12. could see $3.85/.9
Futures starting to roll red ... murmurs of rate hikes, an oil build today, halting some optimism - sounds eerily familiar
$3.49/$3.50 bid ask
Holy $1223 ... quick give us the next level
Curious if that factored in the new royalty on FIN products
Great call on 1230
$17 dollar day and getting worse
Shorted shares increase 1044.74% ...
BTCS’s total short interest was 43,500 shares in March as published by FINRA. Its up 1044.74% from 3,800 shares, reported previously. With 325,700 shares average volume, BTCS Inc (OTCMKTS:BTCS) has declined 20.00% since August 14, 2015 and is downtrending. It has underperformed by 18.09% the S&P500.
http://www.riversidegazette.com/btcs-incorporated-otcmktsbtcs-shorted-shares-increased-by-1044-74-2/
Irrelevant, it's 3x inverse of GDM, or track GDX .. it'll do the opposite
Amazing that still surprises some ..
Gold whacked for $14 last night - $1,234 atm. GDX looking at another test of $18.9 again.
Gold hammered overnight to $1233, GDX $19.98/$20.03, Dust $3.40
The longer gold trades below 1250 the worse .. USD isn't dead yet
They love making it hard on the eyes ... 2050-2062 needs to hang tight - no idea what may apply the brakes the rest of the week luckily we're not short on options ... a lot hangs on Oil, how it reacts to these numbers at 4:35 could determine how the market trades the rest of the week
A Not So Minor Problem: Why Gold Miners Are A Poor Bet On Gold
Mar. 22, 2016 2:41 PM ET
Matt R O'Connor
[] For some investors looking for increased exposure to gold, miners themselves may seem like the preferred bet.
[] Yet in theory the price of miners are driven by far more than gold prices and may provide investors with undesired leverage to gold.
[] History validates the theory- miners have historically not been a good bet on gold prices.
Among investors who are currently looking to increase their exposure to gold- either as a hedge or a speculative play on rising prices- there is some debate about the best investment vehicle and method for gaining this exposure. As the savvy investor knows, a bet is no better than its implementation. With the wrong investment vehicle, you can be 'right' and still feel like you were wrong.
For the majority of investors, sizable purchases of physical gold (and the storage, security and management of this bullion) is not a practical option- most businesses and liquidity makers that sell gold to retail investors do so at steep premiums to the spot gold price (this is afterall how they make their money).
Traditionally, when investors have wanted exposure to gold, two of the most frequently considered options are in the form of ETFs: GLD which tracks physical gold, and GDX which tracks gold miners. The numbers reflect these ETFs' wide range of acceptance, with their total net assets weighing in at $30.9 billion and $6.3 billion respectively.
With gold's most recent rally, the debate was been rekindled, with some touting miners as the superior play. But for investors who are looking for exposure to rising gold prices, there is quite a lot of evidence that miners are not the ideal investment vehicle.
Drivers of Miner Prices
Gold mining companies are- at the end of the day- equities, and the price of equities are driven by two factors: earnings and equity risk premiums.
Earnings
All else equal, the higher a company's earnings the higher the value of its stock. Gold miners are no exception to this general rule, even investors who tout miners as the optimal bet for rising gold prices are acutely aware their theory depends on higher gold prices translating to higher earnings.
But what many investors may not be considering, is that because everything above their costs to produce gold is pure profit, a rise in gold will lead to a proportionally larger rise in miners' profit bases (and visa versa for a fall in the price of gold).
In the above illustrative example, a 10% rise/fall in gold prices leads to a 1.7x times larger rise/fall in miner earnings. The specific numbers are not important, what is important is demonstrating the principle at hand: in terms of earnings- the first driver of equity prices- miners are essentially a leveraged position in gold itself, potentially leading investors to taking on more gold exposure than desired.
Equity risk premiums
In other words, how much of a premium/multiple investors are willing to pay for a given rate of earnings. All else equal, a higher risk premium demanded by investors translates to a lower valuation multiple they are willing to pay, and therefore a lower stock price.
Once again, it would be foolish to think gold miners are somehow magically exempted from this rule. It is entirely possible for gold prices to stay constant or rise and at the same time for equity investors to become more risk averse, leading to falling valuation multiples and prices. Such a situation would unexpectedly punish the holder of gold miners who may have only desired to bet on the price of gold itself.
You might be saying: "that's all fine in theory, but it wouldn't actually work that way because of X." Alright, let's see what the hard data and history tell us.
History Confirms Expected Behavior Based on Drivers of Price
To begin with the hidden bet on equity risk premiums implicit in miners- we can in fact see this play out in history. In 2008, gold prices were flat to slightly up on the year while miners tanked over 30% and had max-drawdowns near 70%! Why? Gold prices didn't change, but equity risk premiums and valuation multiples sure did.
In fact, if you had bought GDX at the beginning of 2008, as of eight years later, at no point following the crash would you ever have broken-even with an investor who bought GLD instead!
This highlights just how much of an effect factors outside the gold price can have on miners, chiefly the equity risk premium investors demand. This should not be misinterpreted or confused as saying GDX is not highly correlated with GLD and largely driven by gold prices. The price of gold directly impacts miners' earnings and miners' earnings directly impact their share prices, but that is only one of two fundamental drivers- as 2008 demonstrates it can be extremely costly to underestimate the equity risk premium component.
Correlation between GDX and GLD typically fluctuates between .75 and .95. It's interesting to note the all-time-low of correlation between GLD and GDX also marked the all-time-highs for GLD. In the future this correlation may be something to watch for an indication of gold prices making an unsustainable break with fundamentals.
As the above chart indicates, in periods where equity risk premiums are not fluctuating wildly, GDX and GLD are very highly correlated, and if our 'drivers of price' theory about earnings is correct, GDX should act like a leveraged position in GLD. To test if this holds true in practice we can look at GDX's Beta with regard to GLD.
As a refresher:
Beta is calculated using regression analysis, and you can think of beta as the tendency of a security's returns to respond to swings in the market. A beta of 1 indicates that the security's price will move with the market. A beta of less than 1 means that the security will be less volatile than the market. A beta of greater than 1 indicates that the security's price will be more volatile than the market. For example, if a stock's beta is 1.2, it's theoretically 20% more volatile than the market.
Read more: Beta Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beta.asp#ixzz43W5x8rha
In this case we're using GLD as the index to get an idea of how much GDX fluctuates for a given change in GLD. To do this, I looked at the data post 2008 (to avoid data from a financial crisis period) to today, and also looked at it broken into two distinct parts: from 2009-2012 in a secular bull market for gold and from 2012-2016 secular bear market for gold. It turns out results are pretty consistent and don't differ much from period to period.
How do we interpret this data? The Beta of 1.7 tells us that day-to-day GDX has in fact acted like a leveraged position in GLD. All else equal if GLD rises/falls 1%, GDX rises/falls about 1.7%. However the R-squared value of this regression of ~.6 suggests that only 60% of GDX's daily performance is explained by moves in GLD- once again demonstrating that GDX is a bet on much more than spot gold prices.
Perhaps most interesting of all though is the consistently negative Alpha value. Alpha is the intercept of the regression line, and represents the returns above the index (you know, 'Alpha' as in 'SeekingAlpha'). The fact that GDX exhibits a consistently negative alpha suggests that it will systemically underperform GLD and is not a better vehicle for rising gold. With an alpha of -.045%, all else equal, even with a 0% change in GLD, one would expect GDX to decline by .045% daily.
In Conclusion
Theory tells us miners may not be the best method of betting on rising gold prices, and if we look at the history of equity valuation multiples in 2008 and the daily behavior of gold prices in 2009-2016, we see our theory is historically validated. A strategy of buying miners to bet on gold itself has suffered two predictable problems:
Miners are a leveraged bet on gold prices which underperforms gold on a risk-adjusted basis in both gold bull and bear markets
Miners are also a bet on equity risk premiums and valuations multiples can fall (such as in a crisis) without significant changes to the price of gold
Thus, investors who are looking to increase their exposure to gold- especially as a hedge against a fall in broad equity prices or another crisis- historically would have been much better off taking a position in GLD directly rather than gold miners. If it's desired, there are other ways to get the day-to-day leverage effect GDX gives you, the simplest of which would be to invest ~$1.7 in GLD for every $1 you would have invested in GDX.
Thanks for reading and please post in the comments your thoughts on gold and the best vehicle for your bet.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3960257-minor-problem-gold-miners-poor-bet-gold
8 red 5 min SPX candles in a row off that HOD push.. bulls continue to respond into close?
80k worth of bids... setup for a breather perhaps
Juicy
A New York federal judge on Monday granted Credit Suisse AG’s motion to toss a consolidated class action accusing it of understating the risks of an exchange-traded note it issued that led to $340 million in rapid losses, saying plaintiffs failed to plead plausibly that the disclosure was misleading.
U.S. District Judge Laura Taylor Swain granted Credit Suisse’s motion to dismiss in its entirety on Monday, saying the text of the offering documents disclosed the “fundamental risks associated with daily rebalancing” and informed the reasonable investor that TVIX ETNs weren’t suitable for the long term.
...
Credit Suisse, saying that it had reached an “internal limit” in terms of the size of outstanding TVIX ETNs, announced on Feb. 21, 2012, that it would stop issuing new notes.
Following the suspension, the market price of TVIX started to trade at a premium to its indicative value based on its tracking of the S&P VIX index. As that premium increased, hedge funds reportedly started to bet that the price would drop and to short sell the TVIX notes.
On March 22, 2012, amid rumors that Credit Suisse was about to resume issuing new notes, the value of TVIX dropped 29 percent, according to the original complaint, filed in May 2012 by investor David Schottenstein. That evening, Credit Suisse confirmed that it would issue new notes on a limited basis and, the next day, the value dropped another 30 percent.
http://www.law360.com/articles/546284/credit-suisse-escapes-suit-over-340m-note-loss
Canadian Spirit Resources Inc. to Shut in Natural Gas Production at Farrell Creek, Northeastern British Columbia
World’s Largest Coal Company Expected to File for Bankruptcy as Stock Price Tanks
The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits
A First: Iraq Exports Natural Gas
http://boereport.com/2016/03/21/canadian-spirit-resources-inc-to-shut-in-natural-gas-production-at-farrell-creek-northeastern-british-columbia/
https://ecowatch.com/2016/03/21/peabody-energy-bankruptcy/
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Current-Oil-Price-Rally-Is-Reaching-Its-Limits.html
http://www.oilandgas360.com/a-first-iraq-exports-natural-gas/
Gold/USD up, oil/equities just slightly red.. market's pouting at a fundamental reason to not go up for a change... Futures quite muted compared to the Paris attack, Im sure we find a way to finish green
Brussels explosions: At least 21 killed in terrorist attacks on Zaventem airport and Metro system
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12200780/Brussels-explosions-many-dead-in-attacks-on-Zaventem-airport-and-Metro-live-updates.html
Brussels Terrorist Explosions at Airport, Metro Station Kill 13
People flee the scene of explosions at airport in Brussels, Belgium. (REUTERS/Francois Lenoir)
By The Wire | Tuesday, 22 Mar 2016 05:46 AM
Terrorist explosions at the Brussels airport on Tuesday morning killed at least 13 people and injured 30 others, then a second blast hit a metro station downtown shortly afterwards.
The Belga agency said shots were fired and there were shouts in Arabic shortly before the blasts at the airport. Pictures on social media showed smoke rising from the terminal building through shattered windows and passengers running away down a slipway, some still hauling their bags, reported Reuters.
The blasts at the airport and metro station occurred four days after the arrest in Brussels of a suspected participant in November militant attacks in Paris that killed 130 people. Belgian police had been on alert for any reprisal action.
Breaking News at Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/brussels-terrorist-explosions-airport/2016/03/22/id/720215/#ixzz43ctd1OXg
NG getting hammered for 5% atm
SPX down 5 handles ... quick nobody move
Turned around at the 200MA $20.75, tight range down to $20.40 see which holds with USD showing strength yet gold fighting towards unch
Nice to see the VIX is still working
Short week light volume no big move in either direction expected... 7th green week in a row?
The bull that doesn't die
GDX could see a 19 handle today Dust ~$3.4/.5's
Fighting off the early loss while USD finds support ... one of them is wrong