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Yeah it is truly unpredictable right now, I'm not trading tomorrow, gonna just watch and wait.
I don't think it's clear at all what will happen next on the daily chart. I feel it's best to stay out and wait for clarity.
Sold puts at $2.10, done for the day. 3 trades, 1.4K gain on the day.
They're not letting it go below 192, could mean more rally to come.
It's more a chat board than technical analysis.
Bought puts for 3rd time on this 192 cross, February 12th 191.00p for $2.12
wow this volatility is crazy.
Sold for $2.95.
In puts again on this spike, Feb 12th 191.00P for $2.68
nah just a quick trade, I'm out already with some quick profit.
Bought February 12th $191.00P for $2.50
Good idea. I've spoken out against averaging down on options, but I'm realizing that with the volatility we've been seeing, the sharp swings in both directions, that if employed correctly it could be an effective strategy.
On friday, midway through that option expiration manipulated rally to 194, I loaded some puts, then watched helplessly as they drove it higher. As monday unfolded, and spy continued to climb, I felt confident that it was a headfake, so kept holding my puts, which ended up down 50% from my entry EOD monday. If I had of just bought more at half the price, and kept holding, confident spy would reverse for a trip back down, I would of done alot better. I sold the next day for a 10% loss on the puts, but could of been green had I took a small position at a much lower price.
A good strategy could be to buy both calls and puts and look to sell one side as spy moves in that direction, average down on the other side at a specific point, then sell the other side when spy moves in the opposite direction. Rinse and repeat as the trend allows. Harder than it sounds, but possible. I wouldn't do this with weekly options but options at least 2 months out as that saves you from the quick decay of short term options. As long as SPY doesn't spend an extended time going in one direction, it would work.
Might go with some weekly 195C tomorrow for a daytrade.
I'm bullish for the next 2 weeks, reason is that February is usually a strong month for stocks. Looking for entry on March 200C.
Most things in life are altered by conspiracies, that's just how it is. You might think you went to the grocery store and bought some red snapper fish, but you didn't. It's actually a cheaper species of fish and they just labeled it red snapper. You go to get your oil changed, but they didn't actually change it, only pretended to and charged you for it. You call to get your toilet fixed, and they make something up that's not even wrong with it and have you pay to fix a problem that doesn't exist. All real stuff that happens in real life everyday.
It's not a real market, by "they" I mean the collective influence of Institutional money + The Fed + Computer Programs.
Bear trap confirmed, 200 next week IMO.
They have the power to do that.
fwiw, 2min awe saucering bearish now, VXX rising. Could see another drop.
Sold puts I bought last week for only 10% loss when I was down 50% yesterday, no telling what they do from here. Staying all cash until tomorrow.
Reality over algos, I like this.
Starting to accept the reality we could gap up tomorrow then rip to 198. My 2 week out puts would be down 80% from entry, if that happens, I'm staying out of calls and waiting for this rally to top out then going heavy into puts.
Seems like most people think the market should tank from here, so they have to do the opposite - or they want us to think they will do the opposite. Stay tuned for tomorrows episode of SPY.
At what point do chart patterns and Algos trading the patterns control the market direction more than fundamentals and economic news?
so go long.
It's weak, 5 min chart looks like bots are saving it everytime it's about to crack.
Fridays have become very dangerous for options traders.
I'm trapped in puts now, they might as well gap it up on Monday now that they have bears in the corner.
Please don't let February be October 2.0.
190 is a brick wall, back to 185 we go.
I had bought some December 185 puts right before that rally, also a 5 figure loss for me.
I think what had the most impact on people was the fed outright saying that the economy is slowing down "economic growth slowed late last year". Rate hikes will be stepped back but now even the fed is saying the economy is getting worse, normally the government would try to cover that up, really means things are much worse than the economy simply slowing down.
Some platforms are more accurate than others. Some brokers do have legit real time bid/ask for options. Won't mention who does as it gives a trader the advantage.
This was an amazing day of volatility and money making opportunities for spy options traders. Made money off both calls and puts. I ended up buying puts a second time right before that 11:15am ramp to 191 and was down a decent amount but had the confidence to keep holding expecting spy to sell off after FOMC, which came to fruition. Sold puts then scalped calls on the bounce from this drop to low 187. Patience and confidence $$SPY$$
Sold puts $2.00 to $2.30.
190 rejected.
A 50K block of weekly 195 calls was just purchased, massive coin. Not sure what it means.
Bought January 29th $190P for $2.00
A trader I follow posted this chart and I agree with it.
chart
Chart is saying "Buy Puts".