I am updating my staus.
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"With the markets doing what they are doing this is not time to be long, in fact any long term investers need to burn one thing into thier mind right now, SELL ALL RALLIES"
A long term investor that looking to sell?
rich
Every China small cap getting crushed.... lots of comments on the emerging board though... I can't see investing thesis has changed.
rich
Cheers cut & paste error - I put Net Income before tax into Net Income... Doh! Corrected..and yes 16 cents.
cheers
rich
Q1 was $0.08 and Q2 was $0.22 - I'm guessing it hit a lot of radars when released?
rich
Hi Trader...
These are the numbers I'm working from...
At the last CC I've got them guiding for $23 million revenue. So that's $15 million ish for the last 2 quarters. I'm taking a 25% net margin (they did 25% in Q2 but that might be a bit aggressive). So, that's about $3.2 million net and about 60 cents for the second half of the year or 90 cents for the year.
If there was a more uncomfortable 10 minutes as the company got probed about their low guidance I would like to hear it. I was however thinking do their products end up being exported and sold? In which case if this XMAS is going to be muted then perhaps they won't beat 2008? If they are for domestic consumption it looks like sandbagging.
I didn't catch $1.10 gudiance but am very happy to up my estimates
rich
Anything less than 100:1 would have left uncertainty - and, as we know, markets just hate uncertainty.
rich
Mr Market having a fit, again?
Soooo, (Price - cash per share) / TTM Earnings = ?
(6.15 - 1.61 )/ 0.95 = 4.78
Growth is difficult to gauge as the last half of the year is the strongest. But management are guiding for around FY 90 cents and they are comfortable that they can do that or better.
So FY 90 cents is 25% Y/Y growth for P/E (less cash) of less than 5. Hmm, once the shower subsides I'm feeling the sun will shine again and Mr Market will show us some favour
rich
CGA Guide for Growth over next 3 years 40%
YONG Guide for Growth over next 3 years 50%
rich
IDI - they set it offer cheap (deal done in march 2009) so it should be fine.
Receivables higher than would like - but market doesn't seem much bothered by receivables - looked interesting... but haven't done enough DD.
rich
Ignore eom
Ignore eom
Warrants & Cash Correction
You can ask for you money back and this is a separate part of the form. The more that ask... the less cash company has.
rich
Why reverse mergers have cheap warrants
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/roth22/idi/
Interesting: Hedge funds buy a Unit which comprises of a share and a warrant. They sell the warrant and then vote No at the merger. It's an arbritration since they get their money back and they get to sell the warrant for profit.
Hence warrants get cheap
Shares that vote no get their money back! This affects how much cash the entity has - more people who vote no means less cash in business - this is the case for IDI but it seems to be the general case.
Example:
Hedge fund buys unit for $8.
Sell Warrant for $1.
Keep Share.
Vote No and get $8 back for share.
Bunch of parasites
Now, all I need to know how many vote against... hmmmm how do I find that out?
rich
Cheers, so another rumour towards NASDAQ
PEG valuation
So, in 2010 they will be earning $4.16 and the growth rate looks near 50%.
Multiple of 20 = $83.
Multiple of 30 = $125.
Don't mind if I do ....
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Subaye-Announces-Forward-prnews-3964398751.html?x=0&.v=12
rich
In general do you mean? Or did you mean they expect that from SBAY?
rich
Nice to get an EPS! Given their liberal usage of shares that's exactly what the market ordered.
rich
SBAY 17.0000 v 28.0000 - 64% spread cool
I wonder why there's been no trades
rich
If there's one lesson the stock market has taught me is that you can always expect it to do something unexpected. I suspect during Nov I will be on sidelines - course if everyone does that... it will collapse before hand - sigh it's giving me a headache
rich
Hopitals vs Pharmacy would be interesting to know the affect of the reforms. I thought one of them was to be less reliant on hospitals and more through pharmacy?
rich
Appologies.. if this has been covered before eom
Thanks Joe & Bogus - Interestingly in Q1 there was no Y/Y growth for the capsule.
Q1 2009 $ 3,836,680
Q1 2008 $ 3,887,380
In Q2 the growth was attibuted by the expansion into new provincies [1]...
"The increase in revenues resulted from Biostar's enhanced marketing and sales efforts which increased sales of its Xin Aoxing Oleanolic Acid Capsule ("Xin Aoxing Capsule") and Tianqi Dysmenorrhea Capsules ("Tainqi Capsule"). Xin Aoxing Capsule, one of Biostar's flagship OTC products which treats symptoms common to hepatitis B patients, contributed approximately 67.5% to total revenues for the quarter, and increased $4.1 million, or 84.1% to $8.9 million, compared to the second quarter of 2008. ***The increase was primarily due to market penetration in two additional provinces through local wholesalers.***"
[1] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Biostar-Pharmaceuticals-Inc-prnews-3257545683.html?x=0&.v=1
So, am I right is saying that there doesn't seem to be any growth in the established market? Could some of the Q2 results come from stocking up? I thinking we might have some nice growth but not some explosive growth - so explosive would be growing in all provincies it's sold as well as new provincies.
Interesting thing would be if it became more affordable under rural health initative?
cheers..
rich
Much appreciated Solarity....
Ok so I've read it 3 timés slowly....
These guys got the shares as part of the RM so quite possibly have no long term interest in the company....
So potentially 8 million shares from 9th of Nov onwards...
hmmmmm, what SIHI needs is some blow out numbers to get the volume up. Nov 9 seems very near a potential earnings date? Dunno what the chances are...
rich
Trying to find date of shares or is it warrants being unlocked....
May 19th of this year... yes... but nothing obvious... sigh...
rich
Ah making more this quarter by Selling drugs... amazing what 10-Q have in them, ahem. Still need to find out why this quarter they sold more and if sustainable.
hmm
rich
Conversion rights / Cash available after merger
I see these tables for all the reverse mergers...
Take TMI and I'm looking at page 160 and they give cash available if maximum conversion and no conversion.
No Conversion = $106 million
Conversion = $29 million
http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6827330-864-1711543&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=747733&ppu=%252fDefault.aspx%253fticker%253dTMI
Is this essentially the same as saying... if we vote for the merger there is $106 million if we vote aginst the merger there's $20 million?
Or am I lost here? Obviously, the amount of cash the company has of this magnitude affects the pps in a big way...
rich
TMI Warrants (Summary)
Strike Price $5.50
Soft cap on $11.50 - so once common has traded for 20 days out of 30 at greater than $11.50 the company can issue a 30 day redemption notice
At the end of the 30 days the company can buy back warrants for $0.01.
Need to be registered before being exercisable - this has not happened yet.
We have not traded above $11.50.
Does anyone know how the redeption notices have to be given? PR?
Missing anything?
rich
CMTP - It's nothing official... someone, apparently, talking to the firm. Who knows for sure?
rich
CMTP - someone said that preferential shares with 70:1 voting rights might stop them uplisting. Dunno if that will play out... he said wouldn't be clear to July 2011 (think)...
rich
What does the board think was the major reasons behind the sucess of the last quarter?
rich
China is torn between getting greener and getting richer
My Summary:
1) Even though China has 1/3 size of US economy they have same output of CO2. The consequenices are that in future years they will be under pressure as the worlds largest CO2 polluter.
2) All Green stuff expensive...
http://www.economist.com/specialreports/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14678515
My Conlusions:
Cheap Green tech looks good
rich
The only thing missing is confidence in the management. The CEO has a chance to show what the company is capable of - I like the fact they are focusing on the Internet arm of the company.
If you look at the graph over the last year or so.. there has been so many pump and dumps on this stock it's beyond a joke but assuming it makes the NASDAQ and assuming the growth keeps up and assuming no scandles then there is no reason, that I am aware of, that investors with deeper pockets won't step in and it should join the rest of the Intenet company valuations.
rich
Cheers Mystiq... I'll have a look
rich
Ah yes, but Intenet plays are high margin cash machines - what do they need to increase? A few more servers vs other companies that can require massive investments of time and money.
EBAY also has a massive barrier to entry, even if it has various problems at the moment, it should be generating cash for the foreable future.
Not sure if SBAY has these barriers though - is their a network effect in operation, i.e., does one company using the video servies benefit if another/other company are also on their?
rich
mystiq@yong - That's an important claim can you show us which 8-K you mean?
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/default.aspx?cik=1398551
cheers
rich
I certainly expect it In the case of CGA it waited around for the financing to be done - it meandered for a month or so... then when they announced financing the stock crashed... but during the crash the big buyers stepped in... and it lifted up 100% ish in short order....
Just in case history repeats...
Other thing I think about is that because of the seasonality... Q4 was very quiet so will buyers wait till Feb ish to step in when they expect blow out quarters?
rich
YONG
At the last CC they talked about requiring financing if they met with their distributors and the demand was there. We can probably take it as fact that they will need some cash - but market cap at $10 is 300 million... so shouldn't be too aduious.
Note that the income before tax up approx 100% Y/Y (10,699,683 vs 5,829,709). They didn't pay much in the way of tax in 2008.
After the last conference call I worked (can find working somehere) they could double the production if they stored fertilizer through winter and spring. So even without new factory they can in at least theory double revenues again... I mention this because of the huge growth in franchieses (I'm assuming that these are new sales outlets and not just rebranded stores that were selling their stuff previously).
CGA & YONG et al still make up a few % of fertilizer sales... and are taking sales from small mom & pop stores... They are "Green certified".. very few producers are
rich
Question answered eom
TMI WS - as if as you say they give 30 days notice. It's exasurbated the situation as in 30 days your warrants are worth nothing so get selling.
It all becomes clear why we get warrant crashes in the stocks. Marvellous, making money and educating myself
Note to self: don't be greedy
rich
TMI - going to be heavy selling of TMI - like the death spirals that CPQQ had. Interesting it's the leverage that benefits the buyer also necessitates the need to sell the excised shares.
I guess options are:
1) Sell your warrants at the first opportunity
2) Clear some cash
3) Shorting TMI - I wonder if exercising the warrant results in covering?
You just want to avoid selling at a dumb price...
rich