Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Ajax
In my experience in business --over 25 yrs ( 10 yrs as a sub chapter S Corp ) ----you make deals --you share the risk ( and the profits if any ).
As far as I'm concerned JZ is throwing the dice in a big way .
You can't tell me that if Vascepa is as good as you , JL , myself and many others believe ... a deal could not have been made in some shape or form .
Dilution near the lows of the year sends a scary message IMHO
AK
Lin
They spent ..what about $50M on launching Marine with 275 sales reps mainly targeting Cardiologists ---and now they are going to branch out to how many primary care docs with how many sales reps ?
Talk about a cash burn.
AK
KC
Thanks for the detail ...but my own take is that Amarin is determined to survive to the results of the Reduce it trial .
When those results come out ...we will either be exchanging vacation homes or food stamps : )
AK
Stan --agree they need to see Reduce it thru BUT they always indicated they would NOT try and GIA for Anchor.
Now they are preparing to ... because apparently JZ can not make a deal with Big Pharma in any way ,shape or form on any basis.
Just my take
AK
STS
Yeah, if tomorrow they announce they will use the secondary to pay off the loan as they don't need the money because they have just made a deal with Pfizer for the Anchor launch ----hellaluja ---let me send you a bottle of Napa's finest if that happens
AK
PS --- no stops in place
Ajax
Re your comment "Its better to raise cash while you can " --yes in November when the stock was around 12 and you knew your were going it alone ----OK take the plunge , throw the dice ...now when the stock is at 6 ? ..smells of desperation to me .
As regards Bio Bill's post of possible Pfizer offer of $30 a share ( if I read that correctly ) ----please send me some of whatever you are smoking --I may need it tomorrow.
Now if Pfizer somehow appears with a $30 a share offer --Will I will happily send you a bottle of Napa's finest .
Good luck tomorrow Ajax ,I'll cheer you on from the sidelines !
AK
Thanks Stan
GIA for Anchor is NOT what I wanted to hear .
AK
Biobill
So now we have the loan AND the dilution !
Having that vote scheduled for the shareholders meeting ..to remove the financing caps ..was a warning sign IMHO
Should be an interesting meeting tomorrow
AK
Hi Ajax
Well I guess you wrote that post before the news on the secondary
Where do you stand now ?
Raising $ because they really need it , because they want to pay off that $100m loan before year end , because they may GIA for Anchor ?
Being stopped out going down thru 6 a week ago , may not look so bad tomorrow am --probably better then being partially stopped IN going up thru 6 today !
So lets see --if you had done the secondary in NOV 12 when you knew you had to GIA ---- ?
AK
Ajax ---so far so good on your call of a "capitulation " bottom.
STS ---I was partially stopped out going down thru 6 , am now partially stopped IN ..going back up thru 6 .
Scrip growth continues ...altho painfully slow from my perspective.
I have to think MGT must be making plans on what to on FDA approval of Anchor ---I would assume a huge jump in the stock if they actually announce a partner in some form , for the Anchor indication
AK
Nofan
Thanks for posting that ...I believe one of our resident scientists/ doctors WM Jenkins commented on that site as per your suggestion
My own take on the article ( And I am not a scientist or MD) ....is that it's largely based on research out of Brazil ( 2008 ) that studied 374 high risk patients ....52 % had high. LDL , 78% high blood pressure , 29% diabetic and 23% current smoker......so a lot of risk factors there beside high TG and low HDL .
Most of what I read on Heartwire currently indicates greater risk with high TG combined with high LDL ....so a Vascepa / statin combo may be the way to go ...and hopefully the results from Reduce it will validate that approach.
AK
KC
Thanks for the financial information and perspective
V has a lot going for it so now it's all about management performance and the big question ..What are the chances of a small biotech co succeeding in GIA.
I was rereading the last CC and while they say partnering for Anchor is their first choice , they did not appear to be closing the door on expanding their sales force if necessary once Anchor is approved.
So I hope they find a partner they can work with ....GIA part 2 ...Oy!
AK
Thanks KC
My key take away... cost of the coupon program will end at about the same time that sales should ramp on Anchor approval .
Thanks for the detail.
AK
Jonniegalan.
Thanks for that clarification re JL's post and good to hear you now have V at tier 3 in your formulary.
I've been trying to get a sense of income vs expenses and frankly find it impossible because patients appear to be paying from $0 ( Mtdsus ) JL ( $60 ) plus what you and STS report plus myself at $134.
Is the company reporting all these sales at the $184 ? ..whole sale cost .....anyone care to explain to some one with limited accounting skills , how this works ?
At least there does appear a trend towards more Tier 2 and Tier 3 coverage , which is good news
AK
GG
Re "I hope they enroll some very sick patients "
The feedback I get it's that they really want those with current life expectancy of around 5 yrs because , as they put it , these are the patients that will benefit the most if V shows benefit.
I had helped one friend try to apply ...diabetic , history of heart attack , aged 68....but because of all the meds he is on ( statins etc ) was declined , because his TG's were currently below 135
AK
STS
I have had some contact with those running the Reduce it trial ....they seem very focused on occurrence of heart attacks ...vs angina etc .
Ie was the patient admitted for , or treated for a heart attack, ( I didn't ask them if it mattered to them .. fatal vs non fatal ...it obviously does to the patient :)
AK
JL
Is that $60 a month with coupon ?
And the cost without coupon in 2014 ?
Agree ..Vascepa is better then PLUSEPA for all the reasons you ,Williams ,WM and my pharmacist lay out .
Re Reduce it ...frankly I would be concerned if it's not stopped early because of the high risk type of patients in the trial ( cohorts ) .
Any comment on the July 9 shareholder vote to lift borrowing restrictions ?
Must be good golf weather in the NE ..
AK
Thanks STS
Found the Aetna med search
AK
STS
Great posts by you and Ajax ...appreciate the detail
Re Jelis ...I believe it is an " event " driven trial and may be stopped before 2016 if ( not sure of the exact # ) 1600 events occur ( Kayla posted on it some time ago )
Note also ...Jelis did not run the full 5 yrs planned ( ran 4.5 yrs ) and Jupiter was stopped after about 2 yrs .
Reduce it patients are far more high risk patients then Jelis .... known existing CAD , stents , bypass etc ...by late 2014 event lines should clearly diverge ( if that's going to happen ) IMHO.
Appreciate the detail on Aetna and Medicare coverage . Poster Steve was saying something like once on Tier 2 , both Anchor and Marine would be Tier 2 for all Aetna patients ...but you are saying only some Aetna plans offer Tier 2 and Medicare does not .....is that correct .?
Study ..enjoy the 4th ...enjoy reading your posts
Akanz
Steve
Thanks ...that is indeed great news .....no competition from DS alternatives for those with Aetna coverage
July 9th share holder meeting ...there's a vote to remove limit of borrowing ...were you aware of that ?
AK
Thanks WM ....so why pay for full page ads if the info presented is not going to be used by those that read the PA journal ?
When do you expect an announcement from AMRIN on Aetna providing Tier 2 coverage ? Or do you figure it's not something shareholders need to know, until the CC ?
AK
Ajax
No problem --I understand that its top down ..PEER review etc.
My main pt was that Amarin had run full page ads in this magazine earlier in the year ---and now a 6 page CME comes out and treatment with EPA ( Vascepa ) is not even mentioned ?
So either Amarin wasted the $ on the ads or marketing dropped the ball ---they should have known the article was going to appear and placed a "Medical Update " ad in the middle of it
JMO
I have no problem with opposing views ..welcome all if respectfully presented .
Good news about Aetna and Tier 2 today
Enjoy the holiday
AK
JL
Quick notes
re your comment " Some rag that deals with PA's " ---- Amarin ran full page ads in that "rag " ---guess they saw the value in doing that.
I would think, they ( Amarin ) should know when major articles ( related to their product ) are coming out in any "rag " they have advertised in.
On a positive note --great news it appears with Tier 2 coverage at Aetna
Thanks for your comments ...always thought provoking
AK
Thank you GG
In fact I am very thankful for all on this board that I can exchange ideas with .
I've learn't more about coronary artery disease in the time I've owned Amarin ...then I have in the 30 yrs since I was diagnosed with Hetero familia hypercholestremia .....so it's all good for me
AK
GG
Thanks for doing the hard work for me ( I dropped out of my MBA program at UC Berkeley ...actually true..so I don't claim to be an expert in the field )
So you project the cash burn down to $ 30 m in the 4th qt ....and income at that pt ...?
You have a debt I believe thats about to jump from $100m to $150 m , you have a coupon program expiring ...anyone paid full price for Vascepa yet ? and you don't know the extent of the Tier 2 coverage , right .
Like I said ..I dropped out of my MBA program ...so I assume you will know more ..please enlighten in detail
AK
WM
First lesson in marketing and launching any business ...is saturation .
I would be furious if a mag/ journal I had paid for full page advertising in never even acknowledged the existence of my product ....weither they liked it or not.
Re PA prescribing
My wife is a PA and writes scrips in her field ..dialysis . She assures me that any PA in Cardiology or related field like diabetes MUST know about the drugs available for treatment ....
Ps to JL ....re " They know nothing "
I personally know ( and have email contact with one ) the co directors of the Adult Lipid Center at UCSF .
With their 30 yrs of experience and hundreds of peer reviewed articles I think they know some thing ...wouldn't you ?
By the way ..Dr Dean Ornish has a daughter in my youngest sons class. My wife talks to him ...next time I see him at pickup I'll have to ask him if he " knows anything " ....with all due respect.
Will , JL ,WM ,Ajax and others ...you are great reads ....but AMRN is one of the smallest position I own...What's the currently the largest YTD ? ..let's just say Elon Musk is the next Steve Jobs out here.
AK
Will
To use one of JL's comments to Cro ...I love you like a brother .
There is a very low probability of a 10x Marine when considering the Anchor population.
Any one with TG's under 300 ..MD's will stress changes in diet and exercise first ....that's a given
So it's never going to be 10x Marine.
But forget that ...try and do a financial analysis ...income and expenditure over the next 6 mths to a year .
Did Lovaza launch with coupons ??...what happens when Amarins coupons expires
AK
Will
With all due respect ...you and some others appear to live in the world of what may be .
I prefer to live in the present .
We are talking about a business here . Income and expenses and bottom lines .
You need to look at those for the next 6 mths to a yr ...not what clinicians will think 2 yrs from now .
Suggest you do a financial analysis of income / expenses ...debt payments due etc ...what happens if Tier 2 coverage stall's when the coupons expire Etc
Will ..put yourself in the position of running the business ...forget about fighting the FDA
JMO
AK
JL
Re "They know nothing " ......starting to sound a little like Cramer there ( re Fed policy during the meltdown ) ...:)
well OK but I'm a nuts and bolts guy ...deals with what is ...not how I think it should be ...and based on what I've seen so far I'm not that impressed with some of the MGT team .
JMO
AK
Sts66
Journal of the American Academy of Physican Assistants July 2013
Amarin had earlier run educational ads in this Journal .
My experience with such journals in my biz ( construction ) ...you can not influence or comment on what is written before publication ..HOWEVER you can usually insert an ad ( in fact are often encouraged to ) next to the article .
If I knew the CME article was coming out ....and they at Amarin should have ..I would have paid for a Medical Update Ad Insert right in the middle of the article ..or as close to it as possible .
Akanz
Ajax and JL
Journal of the American Academy of Physicians Assistants July 2013
6 page CME " Lipoprotein abnormalities in patients with type 2 diabetes and meatabolic syndrome "
Under the section Treatment options ---the following are discussed
Metformin , Insulin, Omega 3 fatty acids ( DHA/EPA) , Fibrates, Niacin , Statins and combinations of the above.
No mention of an EPA fish oil ( Vascepa ) as a treatment option .
Care to explain how that happens when Amarin had earlier run advertising spots in this Journal ...and 6 mths after launching the drug ?
Akanz
JL
I believe in the science ( which is why I take Vascepa ) and thank you for patiently explaining over the years .
Frankly , reading your posts have been the most importance influence on my decisions on meds , diet etc ....I buy the EPA/AA or Omega 3 vs Omega 6 argument
Re the Reduce it trial vs Jelis etc ---I have a layman's understanding at best ---which is that while there a similarities in the trial populations ...they are not the same .
Those in Reduce it --I believe are on a lot more meds and at higher doses then in Jelis ... the question will be IMHO ..how much Vascepa moves the "needle "
Re Amarin
I have run business's and have published marketing material ( articles in papers, monthly magazines etc) since I was 18. So I know a little of whats involved .
The fact that a CME ( Contu Med ED ) article could appear in a Journal read by thousands in a position to prescribe ....and all the options for treatment are discussed EXCEPT EPA ( Vascepa ) , 1 yr after approval and 6 mths after launch .......tells me these guys aren't getting it done
JMO
I have a small position in AMRN , mainly because I like to read the post by you and others and I like the Med
All the best
Kiwi
Dealnay
Agree re FDA approval of Anchor indication
Side note ---at last articles appearing ,slamming Niacin ( but not unfortunately mentioning Vascepa )
Kelly Jones ( Associate prof ) in PA Journal " The results of the THRIVE trial ----...many believe will end any clinical role niacin may have in high risk patients with CAD "
Reccomendation " For now restrict Niacin use ---never prescribe to patients who have achieved LDL goals "
AK
Dealnay --interesting , great work thanks
AK
Thanks Atlas ---re Thero's options
AK
Dealany
Thanks for all the work you do .
If I'm reading this right.... Fidelity has drastically reduced their stake and John Thero has reduced his position from 170,000 to 39,500?
Is that correct ?
AK
Studyhard
Re Jelis results good enough for me .... well if you are a Japanese post menopausal women on a high fish diet ...then I guess so :)
Sorry , couldn't resist.
Hey , I like the drug , hope it works but recognise I won't really know until the Reduce it data .
AK
Ajax ...very much agree
As an aside
I'm in construction
To build my business I would write articles for Fine Homebuilding Magazaine ( 1) ...but usually for local home renovation or neighborhood newspapers . I would always know when articles related to my field were going to appear ....not because they wanted me to critic them ...but rather advertise in the same publication.
If I had been working in marketing in Amarin I would have paid for a " Medical Update " insert right in the middle of the Physican Assitant article ...not some smiley faces PR BS ....but some thing that could look like a legit Medical Update ...
" Vascepa ( EPA) lower TG's without raising LDL cholesterol and is FDA approved for this indication"
To think that you could have a CME published a yr after FDA approval and not even acknowledge that EPA
( Vascepa ) is an option for treatment.......something wrong there IMHO
AK
STS
Yes let's ignore opinions from Cedar Sinai and the past presidents of AHA !!....and while you are at it ...please link to the trials that show clinical benefit in a US population
Come on already ...I take Vascepa and love the drug ....but we don't know if it really reduces heart attacks in a US population until we see the Reduce It Trial results
AK
Study
Sorry I'm not impressed with their marketing
Latest Physican Assistant. Journal .....major CME ( Contu Med Ec) on treatment options for lipid disorders ( focusing on diabetics ) ....everything discussed EXCEPT ...EPA ( Vascepa )
Vascepa was FDA approved a year ago , launched 6 mths ago and you have continuing Ed ( 6 pages ) coming out read by those possibly in a position to prescribe ...and no mention of EPA or Vascepa as a treatment option ??
AK