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jai: it is the market, not idcc that is dampening the shareprice. IDCC has plenty of visibility...that's how the shareprice reached $27 in early March. Nok arbitration in 2005, the market, and lack of new business are attributing factors to the shareprice malaise. The interesting thing is that any of the three can change at any time, and benefit IDCC shareholders substantially.
$125 million in the bank alone, and a continued revenue stream is huge. This is an incredible basis for owning a stock.
Mister: We will see on Monday...like I stated months ago...IDCCs stock price is in churn mode until NOK arb. decision gets closer or there is a settlement. Licensees are severely blocked because of NOK. But right now....IDCC is fairly priced in regard to the rest of the market.
Thanks easymoney...interesting.eom
My3: There is no reason to get testy for my queing for speculation of the timing of this PR. Honestly, I hope everyone at IDCC makes oodles of dough. If the shareprice in in 2006 is $215 instead of $ 225 because of dilution by management...I could give a rat's ass. Let's get there. Like you, I am looking forward to Monday.
Tangent: I base at least some of my thoughts on common sense and ethical practices....I would hope that they would think about how a sale before the ASM, would effect the overall demeanor of the meeting. I mean, it is a meeting of the shareholders and management and I would think that they would want to convey the "positive" rather than encourage a negative sentiment that could come in the door after a sale and no licensee.
Tangent: So do you believe they are covering themselves for the ASM??? I suspect that they will not sell before the ASM, they need to produce a licensee before the ASM and before they sell. The ASM will be contentious if they sell and also if they haven't produced a new name licensee. With the future for IDCC as being as bright as it is, IDCC mgmt should plan for a very positive ASM....at least spin it as "bright". Doing anything considered negative to shareholder value, just isn't the best move at this juncture.
Hey Sail: I just wish that they would follow up one of these PRs with another PR that says "Oh by the way, we just signed so and so to a royalty bearing license agreement...."
These "re-arranging the living room furniture" press releases, just drive me "batty".
Quick question(s): Regarding the informative PR about the planned sales....why was it important to release this now (as in today)??? Rather than next week, or after the shareholders meeting?? What is important about the timing of this release for today? Any honest speculation would be appreciated. Thank you.
OT: My3sons: well, as I said before, My3, I better not be on that short list of yours, because you know how sensitive I am to rejection!!!!!
My observation: It seems some posters are frustrated by the fact that the shareprice is not rising. In my opinion, this is a long term hold. If you are holding for 20, 25, 30 just sell now and get it over with. This stock doesn't cooperate with individual wishes. We know that it will take a major event to get the IDCC shareprice over 30, that may be this Monday or nine months away. Either you are prepared to hold into 2005 or you're not. Other than that, it is buy, sell or hold. I like this board because of it is sharing of information and analysis, not it's bickering.
my3sons: you better not have me on ignore, or I'll be really, really upset!!
Put your rally caps on!! This market is just plain false. It is time to show in the market what the economy is showing.
OT: There is no way that the market stays like this today. The Dow maybe closes -20, but probably better. This is just stupid, there is going to be some buying today.
teecee: you're in the game, I am in the stands...I appreciate your insight..just to add a bit--I don't think it is the dealers that are making the money
Ziploc: I don't understand the arbitration proceedings as well. There doesn't seem to be any thing progressing, but the hearing is in Jan. 2005. Arbitration, by its very name, shouldn't be taking that long. It should have been done by June 2004. This is business, not rocket science.
Teecee & Zitboy: Plus I think the market as a whole really sucks right now. I am sure there are alot of stocks seeing some outflow recently. My gut is that the market will break to upside a little bit....but there so little individual long term money in the market at this time...that the players can move each stock any way they want...they are creating their little momentum moves to upside/downside so they can generate income. IDCC needs to generate some major news for it to hit $20 again, as we get closer to 2005 and the NOK arb. hearing, we will move to @25. The market mentality needs to change to the positive, if IDCC is going to drift up without PR.
Of course...my amateur analysis can be completely wrong.
teecee: there is always the choices of to: buy, sell or hold. Any criticism of management at this juncture may very well undermine their current efforts and negotiations. There is always the choice to sell and buy some other stock that has a preferred mgmt style and personalities. If there is any doubt about this mgmt, people should sell.
Sonic22: I'm getting 55.3 million shares when I am doing the simple math of market cap divided by shareprice.
4 + million shares...nice to have that much volume to the upside.
Norfolk: did you see what the dow/naz closed at? You would have to expect the traders to pull out at the end of the day -- there was a lot of blood this week. I am actually surprised IDCC did as well as it did. The fundamentals of the PR is what I care about -- the guidance was huge today.
Spree99: I am not excited about todays announcement, just glad to see it for a number of reasons. The business of IDCC, has been given a foundation and fortitude for all to read. That foundation was jolted a bit -- on March 10th. This reconciles the doubt of what IDCC will be. In my opinion only, it is up from here.
Spree99: Will you sell at or right above 30? If not, then what difference does it make if we reach 30, Monday or in June?
the importance of today, is that there is public notification that IDCC business is flowing...but, as we all know, there is whole lot more work to be done.
Today, is huge, from an on-going business perspective. It touches so many other aspects of IDCC. This is a subtle assurance that we made a good investment.
It is about the business, the share price will follow eventually.
Doing anything to effect IDCC mgmt and the game-plan they have been following, would be extremely detrimental.
You either believe in mgmt or you don't. You can either buy, sell or hold. If you believe that IDCC mgmt is just to take an unreasonable amount of money out of the value of the stock for personal gain. Then you should sell now.
They have a plan for the long term. It will be either a fantastic long term return on your investment or some crumbs of what it is now.
I have stated in the past they can sign deals, now (today). They can settle NOK now (today). But at what price to the long term growth and potential of this company? Sell, buy, hold. Going after mgmt is not good--will only be a negative.
mister: As you may have noticed I stated that IDCC affirmed some of the reasons that I am a long term investor. The other reasons have to do with growing their licensee base.
But, at this point, it is all pervasive. This statement, that indeed IDCC will be cash flow positive, even without NOK/SAM and then showing it for the 1Q, presents increasing value of IDCC. It gives the them more staying power, and more power in the marketplace, to move the licensees off the dime. NOK/SAM is still the key, but we have just taken a huge step out of a month of the "dark ages". It is much easier, now, to wait for the NOK/SAM resolution in 2005.
Do not count on another licensee...you may be disappointed. If the shareprice dips lower, now I am more apt to buy than ever. The large progression of licensees and revenue will not occur until NOK/SAM are resolved.
I cannot sell until then, and probably not until well after. IDCC today, just affirmed my ability to hold and possibly add.
Thank you IDCC mgmt. Even if the shareprice shows no reaction and even negative, I, as a shareholder sincerely appreciate this communication.
Not because it might stop the decline, but because it affirms some of the reasons I am a long term investor.
The short term price pouncing that IDCC has received has been well deserved, from an IDCC perspective and market perspective. IDCC is not worth $27 a share, without the promise of NOK/SAM money in the immediate future. The markets are getting smacked around, so IDCC is getting smacked around. If you believe the story, if you believe mgmt, if you believe that IDCC will get a fair arbitration settlement, then your money is well invested for the next year.
Mgmt is feathering their own nest and making sure they and their families will be well taken care of. If you don't like it, then you can sell. I believe that IDCC does not care about the shareholders and shareholder value add. The only reason why they should and would is because they are shareholders/potential shareholders. But then again, this is all short-term concerns.
They have not fulfilled the basic objectives of a company, which is an ongoing growing business that includes a growing customer base and increasing revenue from existing customers. They are woefully bad at getting new business.
The promise of things happening because of economic discussions with potential licensees and NOK not effecting their ability to get additional business are obvious embellishments.
The choice is sell, buy or hold. And I am unsure and tempted to do either of the three at this time.
OT: ebuy2: regarding upward movement...I have been having upward movement since March 10th...it is called vomiting. Holding and puking....
sjratty: the IDCC investors/market spoke on March 10th and have been speaking ever since in regard to their valuation of IDCC.
OT: M3: me too. Done.eom
OT: IMA: yeah, you are correct, I should just delete my posts, because no one gets the point of them.
I apologized because it seems to get others flustered when I express my views. I'll stop posting. I am done.
OT: My3sons: Don't worry I have a gameboy on the homefront, and no, I don't play it.
My point, why should an analyst even bother trying to figure out how RIMMs progress will affect IDCCs revenue. Because there is no follow through from IDCC, no help from IDCC, and certainly disappointment from IDCC. IDCC showed it on March 10th-- I can guess they killed a lot of relationships that day.
IDCC showed no regard for the groups, entities, funds, analysts that began to follow and invest in the company. Why would an analyst bother. They can begin that process in December 2004--no need now.
I apologize for the harsh assessment.
OT: My3Sons: Why are you so sensitive to my wisecracks? I just happen to think, that it is pretty funny that you, mschere, eneerg, nieves and others post all this news that is great for IDCC, but IDCC says NOTHING.
BTW, I get the RIMM thing, but why can't IDCC communicate some of the good things that are happening, even if they are not showing up yet the bottom line. You know they could do a web cast for investors, or even the wireless technology community, to get increased exposure. They don't have to talk about licensees just the technology and wireless comm. is now and where it is going from an real-life application perspective. Wireless communications is IT for the future and it is really exciting stuff, but IDCC is so dull.
M3S: Isn't all news great for IDCC??eom
No worries...wait until 2005!!eom
Sonic22: thank you for your perspective. I specifically like your comment on "scared money doesn't make money". I sometimes think that if I didn't like this stock so much and treated it technically rather than emotionally, I would have made a lot more money by now. Throughout the several years that I have owned this stock, there are times were I have almost sold but didn't, and I have paid for it. No, I wouldn't have gotten out a 28.85 as other would claim but high 26s low 27s, if I followed my gut, especially this last time before earnings. But, as always, I was expecting great news, and certainly was...well...kind of shocked. But I haven't lost because I haven't sold. Best of luck to you.
OT: OK, you are going to
kill me, but was that Patsy Cline?
OT: Hookrider: Thanks for the elaboration. Now, I am not only more worldly, but more country also.
Best to you.
hookrider: Could you elaborate on your Hank Snow comment...obviously I am not as worldy as you.
I was simply commenting on why there is a lack of volume/interest in IDCC. I believe my post is a pretty good guess as to why no one is buying, why we are hovering around $18, and why we have dropped from $26 in early March.
3G$: Last scary thought: HG is not willing to admit that NOK arb is a tremendous hinderance to getting new deals, in fact he states that it is not a hinderance. What else is he not telling us or not willing to admit?
This is the reason why WS has left enmasse on and after March 10th. After the last earnings, IDCC has no credibility. Not saying anything about the NOK arb. before earnings was a huge mistake. No trust.
3G$: I agree with you that NOK/SAM is the roadblock. I hope so. Could you imagine, this little business, once NOK is resolved.
In any case, this sucks...It is obvious that the NOK arb is holding back business...and IDCC just has to take it...while it is harming their ability to do business.