I am updating my staus.
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BSPM - EST Low ball $ per outlet per day
Outlets
End March 1320
End Oct 3512
Worse case days open for outlets - so taking the information I'm trying to get the lowest number of combined days the outlets were open. And that "magically" the remaing 2,192 outlets made sales from April the 1st onwards (once again unlikely). Note: The more outlet days I make the lower my final estimate becomes - so conservative.
3 * 30 * 1320 = 118,800 (March, 3 months)
7 * 30 * 3512 = 737,520 (April - End Oct)
-----------------------------
Outlet days 856,320
-----------------------------
Money made for those outletdays = $7.4 Million
So each outlet makes $8.6 a day.
So, with a full year in 2010 with 5,000 outlets running 365 days.
365 * 5000 * 8.64 = $15.7 Million revenue.
Obviously, that ignores their plans to increase outlets to 10,000.
New products should have positive affect.
The changes in rural health initiative may affected sales, one way or another, since end of Sept.
Did I get that all right??
rich
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Biostar-Pharmaceuticals-Inc-prnews-3257545683.html?x=0&.v=1
LPIH - can you explan why you think redchip guided LPIH during the financing?
cheers
rich
Manny @ YONG - appologies for the title mistake it was as you said a record in one shop. Fortunetly, it was discussed by others.
I was unable to correct it yesterday as my post limit was exceeded. Too much talking about coal!
cheers
rich
YONG New One-Day Sales Record - Get in there!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Yongye-Branded-Independent-prnews-1284195733.html?x=0&.v=32
rich
left the exchange's stocks trading at around 100 times earnings.
Good Grief, can anyone see a problem here?
rich
It's worth checking if any of the owners are contesting the aquisition though - given that's there's 8 you'd think that some would be running smoother than others. Even if they weren't PUDA is only priced on it's current business.
I'm particulary intersted in the fact that China is being an importer of Coal... the affect on Iron ore price increases in recent years have been quite outstanding - given the lead time to get a mine going I can't help but think it's going to be a good sector going forward.
The higher efficiencies should be interesting... if coal mines were only 40% efficient and 60% efficiency is possible then surely some of that will end up on bottom line? I guess it depends how costly it is to get that 20%... hmm...
rich
Forbes on Mining: Black Future.
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1116/international-shanxi-coal-china-black-future.html
Gives a sense of the struggle between private and state going on.
rich
Forbes on Mining: Black Future.
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1116/international-shanxi-coal-china-black-future.html
Gives a sense of the struggle between private and state going on.
rich
Forbes on mining: The Price Of Corruption
http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/30/china-coal-corruption-communist-party-beijing-dispatch.html
rich
Forbes on mining: The Price Of Corruption
http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/30/china-coal-corruption-communist-party-beijing-dispatch.html
rich
China importing coal to save resources
... So, I read that as price of coal will rise throughout world..
rich
Mine consolidation for efficiency not safety.
according to this article....
http://www.watoday.com.au/business/chinas-energy-insecurity-set-to-fuel-exports-20091101-hrns.html
Ice cool article and a must read for coal investors!
.. Importing coal to save their resources
... really you want to read this....
rich
Mine consolidation for efficiency not safety.
according to this article....
http://www.watoday.com.au/business/chinas-energy-insecurity-set-to-fuel-exports-20091101-hrns.html
Ice cool article and a must read for coal investors!
... Importing coal to save resources
rich
Expert predicts China's coal consumption to peak in 2030
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/3596948
rich
Expert predicts China's coal consumption to peak in 2030
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/3596948
rich
its closest peer, American Eagle Outfitters, Puda Coal, Inc shows greater overvaluation and is equally likely to outperform the market.
http://www.pr-inside.com/sadif-analytics-releases-new-summary-due-r1551307.htm
Good grief!
rich
I asked for a clarification about the new stores - YONG basically said the stores were selling fertilizer before and some of the sales might be YONG.
The ideal situation for immediate growth was that there weren't selling YONG at all.
However, the situation was what I expected was most likely. Once the store becomes branded "YONG" I imagine the sales of other fertilizers get smaller and the YONG sales get bigger and from previous knowledge I know they get to dominate the fertilizer sales in the shop (something like 80% ish).
I think, like many here, the number of branded stores is a key sign of health for the company's future growth.
rich
-------------------------------------
ME:
I have a question concerning stores entering your branded network. Before they entered the network were they selling your fertilizer already? Or are these all new selling points?
.....
YONG:
Thanks for the question and the interest. Basically, as stated in our disclosed information, each store is a previously existing, independently owned, agricultural products store which sells many other products. Each store has its own history and some have a history of selling our product on a trial basis, but this depends upon the distributor who has brought the store into the network.
Jo Motley fool re-run their messages.... originally done in July so, he's only 6 months late.
To give him his dues.. He picked CGA (in Nov 08) and YONG when they were $2 ish and CMFO early but Global Gains doesn't want to overweight in any one area so they are never going to have portfolios like people on this board might.
rich
Short the rumour. Buy the news eom
rich
-- I see the government's decision to not jump in and bail them out as a big positive.
Exaclty and your not alone. Clear out the shareholders and negotiate with the bondholders - how they should have been handled from the start. The Gov got nervous after they saw Lehmans crash the market... but they forget it was the surprise of the situation. People are ready for it now... Clear the garbage out... and free up the banking system without the public having to pay through the nose for other peoples mistakes.
rich
I guess some people were betting that Gov would come in and save them? Guess you weren't
rich
Hehe, Well someone's happy, very cool trade. You can "prop up" the small chinese stocks - Ahem, once they bounce
rich
It's no Lehman - I would bet the market had wind of this last week. Friday was led by selling off of financials. Wouldn't the counter parties in the bond trasnaction have whispered the words?
Goldman was also involved in the negotations...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CIT-files-for-Chapter-11-apf-1202955938.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=703922da1959616a69a39a1fa1b3988c&ccode=mp
rich
Oh well. CIT needed to be sorted out. A bank that can't afford to lend isn't worth the name.
Course, ironically, China is loaning money to it's small busineses and US loaning is limited by the morbund banking.
**** day tomorrow but it needed to be done. Citigroup next eh?
rich
I think it's an important long term affect on pps but I don't see it's critical.
In theory the stock is worth $20 or more, depeneding on the calculation. If there's significant coke then the end point would be higher.
However, we find ourselves less than $7, admittedly after a broad sell off. Now, it could be some develish manipulation of the stock etc etc but in reality this wouldn't be happening if the coal mine earnings were added into this quarter, say?
The stock *may* be helped by finding coke but it could be temporary, however, it *will* be helped if a mine opens in the next quarter or 2.
rich
BURP isn't this just wednesdays news?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GC-China-Turbine-Corp-Signs-iw-542176813.html?x=0&.v=1
rich
Cheers tothe: saw "SPNG" and thought yikes eom
I'll have another go. What I lose in talent I make up in application. So, your using a share count of 4 million ish? You'd expect that EPS should be closer to EBITA Per Share?
The ratio between 2010 & 2011 seems similar?
So
2010
Rev 71 Million
Net Income 16 Million
EPS 4.16
EBIDTA 31 million
EBITA Per share 7.8
EBITA / EPS = 1.9
2011
Rev 103 Million
Net Income 28 Million
EPS 6.15
EBIDTA 51 Million
EBITA Per share 12.7
EBITA / EPS = 2.1
rich
BSPM I dont know if it's possible to explain this again to the board as if we were 5 year olds? BSPM is a stock of great interest to the board... thanks
rich
I think that's reasonable... I was looking at the numbers and thinking... they've given an estimate for 2010 and 2011 - how about 2009 because it didn't make sense given the growth
If you look at "NOTE 11 - TAXES" in the filing they say that they have a tax holiday that ends this financial year... they then go about throwing lots of tax % left right and center... so I'm not sure what they are going to pay! Could be 25% could be 50% of 25% - if you think 15% who am I to say - similar problems working out what's happening at YONG.
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6757646-856-172358&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=86961&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fcik%253d1139570
Anyway, good spot... I will play around with the numbers later on. I'm sure that's the major change between 2009 and 2010 net incomes.
rich
-- Subay in 2011 about 3. (see guidance)
Yup, that's a pretty good start
Hmmm as you say it's light at $10,000 volume. I hope it does recover but going to take a 10-K and a nice PR, setting the record straight, to get my toes in.
rich
LPIH 12% sell off "Good Grief" eom
PUDA + LLFH, PUDA absolutely, as you know, mines currently have capacity of 1.6 Million and are to be increased to 3.2 million tonnes of coal.
Regardless - PPS is as much about growth as current revenue. If PUDA want their PPS to appreciate they need to give a timetable of openings.
Compare that with announcments from LLFH - they knew what coal they had, the capacity, and the effect of revenue. I suspect it helps to make a friendly buyout?
rich
No worries.... also they could do forward split once on NAZ to help liquidity but I've heard no mention of that lets just get there first
Also worth noting that if they hit their numbers and stay honest with the shareholders $40 is a formality given the guidance.
rich
Big_Island - this will be a NASDAQ stock in a months time. They have the independent directors and now they are above $4. A director is going to get recompensed for an uplisting and I don't see how he's going to fail.
1 :10 would have left them with a $1 stock - and in BB land. Perhaps this would have made the difference and it could have traded up to it's value? Perhpas not. I don't see why SBAY should take the risk.
They have set out a growth plan and if their reporting match their plans the stock will reach $40 soon enough and you can exit without a loss - other than time.
rich
Seriously, sahd3g, you think a legitimate company would let it's shareholders lose 85% of it's value because of their mistake through a late filing and not put out a PR?
It seems a strange situation and strange choice.
rich
Ok, I've tweeked my spreadsheet...
The major disparity is that you are using basic number of shares, 5,446,062, and I'm using diluted 6,203,637. Don't know what the conditions for dilution
$5.3 million with diluted shares gives $0.86.
$6.0 million with diluted shares gives $0.97.
I had some numbers for $25 million revenues but as you've noticed I've been using the lower figures. I've updated the spreadsheet for the higher number.
Obviously, valuation is awkward to gauge until Q3 comes in since they are predicting lower earnings than last year.
rich
I'll buy more if it hits 4
Gives me 150% upside on the washing business.
Gives me approx 500% upside on the coal business.
I think they call that an error of saftey even for this bi-polar market
rich
As long as they get a time frame for opening a mine in 2010 I'm happy. Even if we ignore the mine It's going to do 60 cents of washing business this year (It did $1.10 in 2008, sigh)... so P/E 10. It can go lower, that's not my problem I'm investing in PUDA not trading it. My ability to sell out at market bottoms is only exceeded by my ability to buy in at peaks.
Sooooo, unless I can find a better investment or they look incompetent at opening mines I'll wait.
I am impressed by peoples ability to read the share price movements... and good luck all...
rich