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DETROIT, June 26 (Reuters) - A spokesman for Chrysler LLC said on Thursday that market rumors of a bankruptcy filing by the privately held automaker were "without merit," saying the company had ample liquidity.
"The rumor is without merit," Chrysler spokesman Dave Elshoff said. "There is no basis for the rumor."
The concern about Chrysler's liquidity position and the rumor of a Chapter 11 filing drove down prices for the automaker's loans on Thursday, according to Reuters LPC.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut ratings for both Chrysler, now controlled by Cerberus Capital Management LP [CBS.UL] and its larger rival General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), citing the industrywide downturn in sales.
A spokesman for Cerberus also said there was no truth to the market rumor of a bankruptcy filing.
Liquidity concerns for U.S. automakers have been rising as evidence grows the downturn in sales that began earlier this year accelerated in June in the face of record gas prices and a consumer defection from trucks and SUVs.
Earlier this week, Chrysler drew down a $2 billion credit line from Cerberus and Daimler AG (DAIGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the German car maker that sold off a roughly 80 percent stake in Chrysler to Cerberus last year. Continued...
Under the terms of that sale, Chrysler had until August to draw on the credit line, which included $1.5 billion from Daimler. The credit line pays interest fixed at 7 percentage points above the London interbank rate, Daimler has said.
Chrysler, which lost $1.6 billion in 2007, has said it ended the year with $9 billion in cash. Its U.S. sales are down 23 percent so far this year.
The concern about Chrysler's liquidity corresponded with an event for employees at the automakers Auburn Hills, Michigan headquarters intended to honor former chairman Lee Iacocca, who is credited with steering the No. 3 U.S. automaker from bankruptcy in the early 1980s.
Chrysler marketing chief Deborah Meyer said market concerns were making it harder for all of the automakers.
"Right now in the auto industry, we are seeing a lot of changes. There are a lot of issues in the economy all over and so everyone is wondering not just about Chrysler, but about the auto industry and all aspects," Meyer told Reuters.
Meyer said senior executives were urging Chrysler employees to focus on customers and their feedback as concerns deepen around the sector.
"The whole company is trying to focus on the customers and what their needs are," she said on the sidelines of an event to showcase Chrysler's 2009 line-up. "If we can stay focused on that with all this rolling around, then we will be okay." (Reporting by Kevin Krolicki and David Bailey, editing by John Wallace and Andre Grenon)
boomet i bilindustriens investeringer fortsætter
Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) plans to build a new car plant in Brazil's Sao Paulo state worth more than $1 billion, Brazilian business newspaper Valor Economico said on Thursday.
Valor said Toyota's second car plant in Brazil should be ready around 2010 and would produce over 200,000 small economy cars per year as well as engines.
Last month, a Toyota spokesman confirmed the company was considering setting up a new plant to build low-cost cars in Latin America's largest country, but said the company had not decided on details such as the location or timing of the move.
Valor said the company was still deciding on what car model to produce at the factory. Toyota is already producing its Corolla model at a plant in the interior of Sao Paulo -- Brazil's wealthiest and densely industrial state.
Brazil's car market, particularly for popular low-cost automobiles, is dominated by foreign automakers like Fiat (FIA.MI: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Ford Motor Co (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Volkswagen AG (VOWG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which have local plants.
A range of other foreign companies have set up factories in Brazil over the past decade, but they mostly focus on the more expensive car segment. (Reporting by Andrei Khalip, editing by Dave Zimmerman)
Rockwell Automation Inc. warned Wednesday it no longer expects to reach its 2008 earnings target because of slower-than-expected growth in the U.S. and Europe.
The Milwaukee, Wisc.-based industrial automation and control provider didn't provide an update for the year.
Its previous 2008 target was for earnings in the range of $4.25 to $4.45, while analysts polled by FactSet expected, on average, earnings of $4.28 a share.
For the third quarter, Rockwell (ROK:Rockwell International Corporation
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ROK 42.91, -2.86, -6.2%) said it expects earnings of 93 cents to $1 a share. Last year the company said it earned $1.05 a share.
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Analysts expected, on average, quarterly earnings of $1.13 a share.
"It appears that market growth is slowing in two key regions and we will deal with that reality," said Keith Nosbusch, chairman and chief executive.
Rockwell Automation is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on July 22, and expects to provide an update to its annual outlook at that time.
Shares of Rockwell Automation fell 12% to close at $45.77. The stock is down about 33% since striking its full-year high of $75.60 on July 19, 2007.
Specialty U.S. truck maker OshKosh Corp (OSK.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) warned investors on Thursday that it now expects to report a loss in the third quarter, citing a slowing economy and weakness in the nonresidential construction market in North America and Europe, and its stock tumbled 33 percent.
OshKosh said it would seek to impose price increases across a broad range of its products, which include fire trucks, cement mixers and other heavy vehicles, over the next few months as it seeks to offset the effects of surging energy and materials prices.
Its shares were down $11.17 or 33 percent to $22.34 on the New York Stock Exchange in afternoon trading after touching $22.20, the lowest point since 2003.
The company said it expects to record a loss per share of $1.22 to $1.32 for its fiscal quarter ending June 30, partly as a result of a $175 million, or $2.32 per share, non-cash charge related to Geesink, its European garbage truck unit. Previously it had forecast a quarterly profit of $1.40 to $1.50 per share.
"General economic weakness, softness or expected softness in nonresidential construction, and rising material and fuel costs have all taken a toll on customers in a number or our markets," said Robert Bohn, the Oshkosh, Wisconsin-based company's chairman and chief executive, on a conference call with investors.
One key weak point was the company's JLG access-equipment unit, which makes lifts for workers who need to reach high objects like billboards or street lights.
"The magnitude of today's downward revision in access equipment's outlook is a surprise and highlights the speed at which JLG's business outlook has deteriorated," wrote BMO Capital Markets analyst Charles Brady, in a note to clients, while cutting his rating on the stock to "market perform" from "outperform."
Its slide weighed down the shares of fellow heavy-equipment makers, with Terex Corp (TEX.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) falling 8.8 percent to $53.95 and Manitowoc Co Inc (MTW.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) down 7.6 percent to $33.99. Both trade on the NYSE. Continued...
Sony pins hopes on fast-growing emerging markets
Japan's Sony Corp. said Thursday it aimed to double its sales in the fast-growing markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China over the next three years and ramp up investment to keep its recovery on track.
The electronics icon also sketched out a vision of the future where consumers download Sony movies and music through televisions and other electronic goods produced by the company.
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The upbeat plan is in marked contrast to the group's previous three-year business strategies that involved heavy job cuts and plant closures to try to turn around its financial fortunes.
Sony aims to boost its annual revenue in the so-called BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China two-fold by March 2011 to two trillion yen (18.5 billion dollars).
"The BRIC countries are some of the fastest-growing economies worldwide. This is where the world's next billion consumers live," Sony chief executive Howard Stringer said at a press conference on the group's midterm strategy.
"These consumers desire the products and services we offer, and that spells huge opportunities for Sony," he said.
In the past year to March, about 75 percent of Sony's sales came from Japan, the United States and Europe.
But "so much more opportunities exist outside the core markets of Japan, North America and Europe," Stringer said.
"We have already achieved great success in India, and we can leverage this model in the BRIC countries and other emerging regions," he said.
Sony said it plans to invest 1.8 trillion yen over the next three years in its businesses, up from 1.4 trillion in the past three years to March 2008.
The move will help the group to expand its Blu-ray high-definition DVD business following a victory over a rival format pushed by Toshiba and its partners in a fight to set the standard for next-generation DVDs.
Sony also aims to converge its strengths in media and electronics goods so that customers downloads films or other content through televisions, game consoles or other products.
"Our mission is to simply be the leading provider of networked consumer electronics and entertainment," Stringer said.
The electronics giant has endured a difficult past few years amid tough competition from rival products such as Apple's iPod and Nintendo's Wii, but is now enjoying a strong recovery after shedding jobs and non-core assets.
The latest business plan comes almost three years after Stringer unveiled a plan to cut 10,000 jobs, dispose of a swathe of assets, axe 11 of its 65 manufacturing plants and one-fifth of its product line.
In 2003 Sony had announced 20,000 job cuts over three years to trim costs.
Sony said last month its full-year to March net profit almost tripled to hit a record high as brisk sales of digital cameras and laptop computers offset continued losses from the PlayStation 3 game console.
The group hopes its game unit will return to profit in the current fiscal year to March, said Kazuo Hirai, head of Sony Computer Entertainment.
Sony hopes that more people will buy the PlayStation 3 and PlayStation Portable as the company makes non-game content such as films and television programmes available for downloading via the Internet.
det slår klik for klic
den falder igen
Singapore factory production down 12.8 percent in May: govt
Singapore's industrial sector in May performed worse than expected, raising concerns the economy may miss the government's 4.0-6.0 percent annual growth target, economists said Thursday.
mine aktier i singapore har ikke været særlig spændende de sidste mange måneder siden efteråret sidste år
men som der står er marine/offshore sektoren stadig stærk og det er jo den sektor jeg har investeret i, så de stiger nok igen og desuden er det jo en helt uforståelig nedgang på over 50% i det de kalder biomedical sektoren der står for det meste af nedgangen
The Economic Development Board's monthly report showed output from the industrial sector shrank an annual 12.8 percent last month, pulled down by a hefty 55.1 percent drop in biomedical output.
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Analysts had projected a fall of 2.5 percent for May.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial output in Southeast Asia's most advanced economy last month fell 5.7 percent from April, the EDB said.
"Production in May dropped 12.8 percent compared to the same month last year, largely due to a contraction in the biomedical manufacturing cluster," said the EDB.
The sharp plunge in biomedical output was due mainly to the pharmaceuticals segment which shrank 58.2 percent because a different batch of ingredients was produced, it said.
Precision engineering also declined last month with output down 4.8 percent on the year but other sectors fared better. EDB reported increased output in electronics, chemicals and transport engineering.
Electronics output gained 3.8 percent in May. Almost all electronics segments recorded higher production but information and communications, and consumer electronics were exceptions, the EDB said.
Chemicals production was up 2.2 percent and transport engineering increased 13.0 percent, boosted by the robust marine and offshore engineering industries, it said.
Song Seng Wun, a regional economist with CIMB-GK brokerage, said the May industrial figures were bad news for second-quarter economic growth and probably indicated "overall GDP is outside the 4.0-6.0 percent government economic growth forecast for 2008."
Citigroup's Singapore economist Kit Wei Zheng said full-year growth for 2008 was likely to be less than five percent because the May production figures indicated a broad slowdown in the industrial sector.
"The bottom line is, the broader trend of slowdown in the manufacturing sector is still intact," he told AFP.
Singapore's monthly manufacturing report is widely monitored as the sector accounts for a third of Singapore's gross domestic product worth 243 billion Singapore dollars (179 billion US) in 2007.
The city-state's export-reliant economy grew slower than estimated in the year's first quarter, at 6.7 percent, as demand weakened due to a slowdown in the United States and other key markets, the government has said.
- Dow Jones Newswires contributed to this story -
SHANGHAI, June 25 (Reuters) - The spot coal price in China jumped to a record high on Wednesday despite a government order last week to cap thermal coal prices, as supply tightened with the arrival of the peak summer consumption season.
The benchmark spot price for top grade 5,800 kcal/kg coal at Qinhuangdao, the country's top coal shipping port, jumped 40 yuan, or 4 percent, on Wednesday to 950-960 yuan ($138.40-139.80) per tonne, more than doubling from a year earlier.
"It is already the peak season. Prices would rise anyway, with or without the price cap order," said an analyst at a large state-owned securities firm, who declined to be named.
China last Thursday announced a cap on thermal coal prices through the end of the year at the June 19 level, while hiking diesel, gasoline and jet fuel prices immediately and raising retail electricity tariffs beginning on July 1.
Analysts and traders believed the price cap would be temporary and would not change the upward trend in the coal price.
"Traders expect prices to go up, so they are reluctant to release their coal stocks, which has caused a fall in available coal inventories on the market," said Chen Liang, an analyst at Ping An Securities.
Some traders said the price cap, which only applies to mine mouth prices and leaves plenty of leeway for evasion by miners and traders, nevertheless had helped slow the rise in coal prices.
"Without the price capping policy, it would rise faster," said a Qinhuangdao-based trader.
Movement on the Daqin railway, which links Shanxi, the top coal-producing province, to Qinhuangdao, has been slowed since early June by annual maintenance work, said industrial officials and traders.
"Coal transportation has declined due to the maintenance work, which shuts down the railway for three hours a day," said the Qinhuangdao-based trader.
But some industrial officials said the routine maintenance would not seriously affect thermal coal supplies, as capacity on the line had been increased.
"Transportation capacity on the Daqin route has increased by 50 million tonnes this year, to 350 million tonnes," said Liang Dunshi, deputy secretary general of the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association. ($1=6.866 Yuan) (Reporting by Rujun Shen; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
stigende inflation, renter og betalingsbalanceunderskud er ved at tære en del på de stærke lande i asien
gad vide om de kan holde til det
aktierne tvivler og pippen har taget fri idag for at slippe for at kigge på aktier, der falder
Philippines is the most vulnerable economy in Asia after Vietnam, as rising prices and a global slowdown threaten the country's ability to pay for its balloning trade deficit, an HSBC economist said.
Philip Poole, HSBC's chief economist for emerging markets, said the Philippine central bank was behind the curve in taming inflation at a nine-year high and that the threat to the economy was exacerbated by waning competitiveness of exports.
"It's clear that the Philippines is becoming more vulnerable because the trade deficit is widening there and the ability to finance it is falling," Poole said.
"But is it going to turn into a Vietnam? No, (I) don't think so."
The Philippine peso <PHP=> has weakened 7.9 percent against the U.S. dollar this year, but has appreciated 19.2 pct since the end June 2006.
Vietnam is struggling with a trade deficit that has tripled this year, a weakening fiscal position, limited foreign exchange reserves and annual inflation at a 25-year high, leading some observers to point to a currency crisis.
The struggling U.S. economy will also take a toll on remittances from Filipinos working in the United States, Poole said. He said up to a quarter of Philippines' remittances come from the United States.
Remittances are a cornerstone in the Philippine economy because they boost domestic consumption.
The Philippines' trade deficit this year is set to expand by a third to about $11 billion, the highest in at least nine years, due to higher fuel and rice imports and weaker exports, central bank documents showed on Wednesday.
The Philippines is planning to cut its 2008 export growth forecast to 5 percent from 6 percent, and raise its growth estimate for imports to 10 percent from 7 percent, official documents showed earlier this month. (Reporting by Melissa Chia and Koh Gui Qing; Editing
India growth prospects 'positive' despite rate hike: govt
India's government said Wednesday the country's economic growth outlook was "positive" despite a fresh round of monetary tightening by the central bank to tackle high inflation.
But economists said the Reserve Bank of India can be expected to continue to raise interest rates in the coming months, with inflation rates set to remain stubbornly high.
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On Tuesday the central bank raised its repo rate at which commercial banks borrow funds from the central bank to 8.5 percent from 8.0 percent with immediate effect.
It also announced a two-stage hike of the cash reserve ratio, or the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve, by 25 basis points to 8.50 percent effective July 5, and by another 25 basis points to 8.75 percent on July 19.
"These steps are necessary in the face of rising inflation due to relentless increase in crude oil prices," a finance ministry statement said on Wednesday, adding the RBI needed to "moderate and manage aggregate demand."
Inflation in Asia's third-largest economy rose to a 13-year high of 11.05 percent in the week ended June 7, well above the RBI's declared comfort level of 5.5 percent.
Price rises have overshadowed better-than-expected growth of 9.0 percent in the past fiscal year.
Economists expect growth to slow this year to around 7.8 percent on higher borrowing costs and tough global financial conditions. The prime minister has projected growth of more than eight percent.
A consensus of economists forecast average inflation for Asia's third largest economy in the nine to 10 percent range to March-end 2009.
Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist with state-run Bank of Baroda, said he expected another half-a-percentage point rise in the repo rate plus a 25 basis points hike in the cash reserve ratio by the end of the year.
"The second round of rising input costs is still ahead," Nitsure said.
"We are expecting the central bank to raise repo rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting," added Sonal Varma, economist with Lehman Brothers.
Goldman Sachs also said it expected "a tightening bias in monetary policy to continue."
"We think that the RBI will wait and watch inflationary trends over the next several weeks, particularly signs of pass through to broad-based inflation and broad money growth, before raising rates again," said Tushar Poddar, vice president of Asia economic research at Goldman Sachs.
"We do not think the rate hike will have a large negative impact on growth," he added, but cautioned there were "downside risks to our GDP growth forecast of 7.8 percent" for the current year.
But India's main business lobby group, the FICCI, warned businesses were feeling the pinch.
"Indian industry has been subjected to successive rate hikes over the last one and a half years. These have substantially pushed up the interest cost for industry, particularly in the face of acute international competition," it said.
first tractor - BUSINESS REVIEW
In 2007, China maintained a prudent fiscal and monetary policy and national economic development
remained steady and rapid. GDP grew by 11.9% over the same period last year and fixed assets
investment recorded a year-on-year increase of 24.8%. Thanks to the continuous and rapid growth
of national economy, China’s agricultural machinery industry and construction machinery industry
also maintained certain growth.
In respect of agricultural machinery, the State continued to attach great importance on the problems
of “agriculture, countryside, farmers” during the Reporting Period by introducing a series of policies
for the purpose of supporting and providing favorable treatment to agriculture. As a result, total
volumn of agricultural machinery equipment increased constantly and the consolidated
mechanization level of tilling, planting and harvesting in China increased by 1.7 percentage points
to 41% from last year. Agricultural mechanization level progressed from an early stage to a middle
stage. Agricultural machinery industry, after four consecutive years of rapid growth, witnessed a
slowdown with adjustment at high level in 2007. According to statistics of tractor industry, the
sales volume of large wheeled tractors and medium wheeled tractors increased by 10.5%. The
level of increase was down 23.6 percentage points in which the increase in sales volume of large
wheeled tractors, medium wheeled tractors and small wheeled tractors were down 10.1%, up 16%
and down 5.4% respectively. Owing to the market saturation, the sales volume of wheat harvesting
machines decreased over 60% as compared with the same period last year. In 2007, the Group sold
a total of 44,239 large, medium and small wheeled tractors, representing a decrease of 3.14% over
the same period last year; in which sales volume of large wheeled tractors, medium wheeled tractors,
small wheeled tractors and wheat harvesting machines were 23,058, 18,261, 95,065 and 1,148,
representing a decrease of 7.9%, an increase of 6.7%, a decrease of 3.6% and a decrease of 61.3%
respectively. Thanks to the satisfactory outcome of the adjustment in product structure, turnover
generally remained unchanged and operating results increased despite a decrease in sales volume.
In respect of construction machinery, infrastructure construction and investment by the State also
promoted the rapid development of construction machinery industry during the Reporting Period;
and a relatively sharp increase of exported products of construction machinery was also seen. Due
to the adjustment of product structure and the seizing of market opportunities, the Group sold
10,673 units of different types of construction machinery products, representing an increase of
11.9% as compared with the same period last year. Turnover increased by 23.5% as compared with
the same period last year. The operating results generally remained unchanged and was not restored
from loss to profitability.
— 21 —
The
kobber og landbrugspriser
men kinas største producent af traktorer er faldet fra godt 5 til 1.79
underligt
jeg har læst deres seneste regnskab, der ikke var specielt godt, men heller ikke specielt skidt
jeg må nok hellere studere det igen
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=0038.HK
Bullish Case for Copper Based on Valuation, Steady Demand
Wednesday June 25, 9:37 am ET
By the tickerspy.com Staff
Even as fears of an American slowdown spur concerns about the overall strength of the global economy, commodity prices continue to boom. This paradox of booming commodity growth is due to emerging markets, where economies are still expected to grow quickly (even if a slowdown crimps that growth somewhat). While many speculate that oil prices are in a speculative bubble, not all commodities are quite so frothy. Copper prices pulled back from all-time highs over the last month but have begun to rebound.
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Copper stocks like Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX - News) and Southern Copper (NYSE: PCU - News) have posted modest gains in 2008, in contrast to the outsized gains seen by some other commodity stocks. A bull case for copper rests on the fact that the stocks are trading at lower valuations and that the revenue base of these companies is relatively disconnected from the developed economies of the world and consequently a safe haven for investors during this time of uncertainty. Meanwhile, emerging markets like China and India continue to experience building booms that require copper pipes, wiring, and other products.
Capital Growth Management, Ken Heebner's closely watched mutual fund company, had some fairly big exposure to copper at the end of Q1, with a new position Southern Copper and an increased position in Freeport-McMoRan among its top-15, U.S.-listed equity holdings. Heebner was also in copper in 2005, making quick profits as the commodity soon doubled. Capital Growth Management's performance has been impressive. Its CGM Focus Fund (Nasdaq: CGMFX - News) and CGM Mutual Fund (Nasdaq: LOMMX - News) were the top two 12-month performers among U.S. diversified stock funds as of the end of Q1. CGM's top holding at the end of Q1 was in fertilizer company Mosaic (NYSE: MOS - News).
Overall, Freeport-McMoRan was one of the most popular copper miners among Pro investors in Q1. Among the 97 investment firms holding stakes in the company, the largest was a 13.1 million-share stake held by hedge fund Harbinger Capital. Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan is also the favorite copper stock among tickerspy members, though members are also tracking copper companies Madeco (NYSE: MAD - News), Taseko Mines (AMEX: TGB - News), and Encore Wire (Nasdaq: WIRE - News).
Pro portfolio performance is based on institutions' top-15 holdings as disclosed in quarter-end filings with the SEC. Pro performance does not take into account additional holdings beyond the top 15 nor does it include positions that are not required to be disclosed by the SEC. As such, Pro portfolio performance should be considered an approximation and not a precise record of how an institution has performed over time.
Tap Into the Market Intelligence of Investment Pros & Individual Investors at tickerspy.com: Newly launched by Indie Research, tickerspy.com is a FREE financial website that lets you TRACK multiple stock portfolios, FIND and SHARE the latest news about the companies you follow, and SPY on the portfolios of nearly 2,000 Wall Street institutions and hedge funds and see graphs of their performance. Best of all, find out how YOU stack up against investing legends like Warren Buffett. Try tickerspy.com today!
Lennar 2Q loss narrows; sees worsening conditions
Thursday June 26, 6:33 am ET
Lennar posts narrower 2nd-quarter loss, but sees further housing market deterioration in 2008
MIAMI (AP) -- Lennar, one of the nation's largest homebuilders, says its second-quarter loss narrowed but sees housing market conditions deteriorating even more this year.
Miami-based Lennar Corp. says losses shrank to $120.9 million, or 76 cents per share, from $244.2 million, or $1.55 per share, a year ago. The latest results include charges of 60 cents per share to write off land values and deposits.
Revenue fell 61 percent to $1.13 billion from $2.88 billion.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected a loss of 55 cents per share on revenue of $1.09 billion.
Backlog fell 56 percent to $1.3 billion.
AP Business Writer Jennifer Malloy in New York
Oracle throws wet blanket on strong 4Q results
Thursday June 26, 1:24 am ET
By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer
Oracle finishes fiscal year with flourish, then dampens hopes for current quarter
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Oracle Corp. finished its fiscal year with an impressive flourish, then pulled out a wet blanket.
After announcing fourth-quarter results that exceeded analyst estimates, the business software maker dampened investor sentiment late Wednesday by raising the specter of a slowdown in the traditionally sluggish summer months.
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The tepid outlook caused Oracle shares to drop by 3.5 percent in Wednesday's after-hours trading, dragged down by concerns that the decrepit U.S. economy may finally be sapping some of technology sector's vitality.
Given all the economic uncertainty, it makes sense for Oracle's management to set easily reachable targets, said Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brendan Barnicle.
"I think companies are realizing that you don't really get rewarded for raising guidance, so there is no reason to be a hero in an environment like this," Barnicle said.
Oracle shares fell 78 cents in extended trading after finishing the regular session at $22.55, up 32 cents.
The Redwood Shores-based company earned $2.04 billion, or 39 cents per share, in the three months ending in May, up 27 percent from $1.6 billion or 31 cents per share at the same time last year.
Oracle usually posts a strong fourth quarter because its sales force pulls out all the stops to close deals in an effort to boost year-end bonuses. Realizing they are more likely to get discounts, many of Oracle's corporate customers hold off their purchases until this period too.
But Oracle's quarter was even more prosperous than Wall Street had hoped.
If not for expenses related to acquisitions and employee stock awards, Oracle said it would have made 47 cents per share -- 3 cents more than the average estimate among analysts polled by Thomson Financial.
Revenue totaled $7.24 billion, a 24 percent gain from last year's $5.83 billion in the same period and nearly $400 million above the average analyst projections.
Perhaps most important to investors, Oracle's software sales accelerated well beyond the 10 percent to 20 percent growth rate management forecast three months ago. Oracle's new software licenses in the quarter were up 27 percent.
That robust growth is significant because sales of new software produce a steady stream of future revenue from product updates and maintenance.
But management doesn't expect the momentum to extend into its fiscal first quarter, which will end in August. Oracle projected new software licenses will rise 10 percent to 20 percent during the summer, compared with a 35 percent gain in the same period last summer.
Excluding acquisition and stock compensation costs, Oracle expects its first-quarter earnings to be 26 cents or 27 cents per share. Analysts, on average, had already forecast 27 cents per share.
With the strong fourth-quarter showing, Oracle joins several other major tech companies that are weathering the economic turbulence battering financial services, travel and retail.
"The fact that we put up these results in these times demonstrates our strategy is working," Safra Catz, Oracle's chief financial officer, said in a conference call with analysts.
Technology generally has proven a safe haven so far, largely because corporations still need computers and software to navigate through the economy's downturn.
At large technology companies like Oracle, Hewlett-Packard Co., IBM Corp., Intel Corp., Google Inc., Apple Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc., international sales and the weakening dollar have helped offset slowing demand in the United States.
If the dollar were as strong as it was a year ago, Oracle estimated its fourth-quarter profit would have risen a more modest 14 percent.
The strong fourth-quarter performance also indicates Oracle is gaining ground on SAP AG, the longtime leader in so-called business applications software -- the computer coding that enables companies, schools and government agencies to automate administrative tasks.
Oracle has spent about $35 billion during the past three years buying dozens of smaller rivals, primarily to mount a more serious challenge to Germany-based SAP in business applications software.
wagon falder stadig og er nede i 4
og det er stadig ikke nogen anbefaling og jeg har heller aldrig anbefalet den
men det er interessant at den kan blive så billig når de siger at det går bedre
men det ligner nu en konkurs, så jeg vil stadig ikke købe den
ideen med en watch liste og opsamling af egnede købskandidater
er jo ikke at de skal stige fordi man har anbefalet dem
for det er ikke nogen anbefaling, men en opsamling af gode ideer, der ser billige ud og som forhåbentligt falder endnu mere så de bliver endnu billigere
og så kan man købe dem efterhånden som der kommer mere styrke i markedet og konjunkturen i usa
en liste med aktier, der er faldet meget er guld værd i disse tider for så kan man få et hurtigt overblik over hvor man skal slå til, den dag man vil købe en eller flere af disse kandidater
Big Housewarming for Home Building
Credit Suisse has initiated coverage of the sector at Overweight.
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WE ARE INITIATING COVERAGE of the home-building sector with an Overweight stance. We have Outperform ratings on Centex (ticker: CTX), D .R. Horton (DHI), KB Home (KBH), Pulte Homes (PHM), Ryland Group (RYL), and Toll Brothers (TOL); Neutral ratings on Lennar (LEN), MDC Holdings (MDC), and NVR (NVR); and Underperform ratings on Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) and Meritage Homes (MTH).
Tough conditions to continue, but we believe an inflection point in housing is likely in spring 2009 as inventory levels will likely start to decline. A peak in inventory of homes for sale is likely in spring 2009. Our supply-demand analysis suggests that we will begin to see declining inventory levels after spring 2009, which will be an initial step toward price stabilization, with prices being the key driver of margins and earnings. We derive our forecast from construction activity (down 65% from the peak -- a positive), economic and demographic trends, along with foreclosures.
Stocks are trading at a 10% discount to book value despite 49% after-tax book value write-downs since the peak (asset impairments and deferred tax write-offs). We believe these valuations are attractive given our view that new home prices will fall another 7%, partially supported by the lack of construction, and that the stocks should trade at 1.2 times adjusted book value.
High inventory and modest traffic remain the storm clouds. The 11.2-month supply of homes for sale should lead to continued pressure on prices, and our traffic index remained modest in May.
Publicly traded home builders will likely take market share, as privately held builders struggle with lenders. Banks are now aggressively reducing exposure to home building, causing significant trouble for privately held builders. We estimate the publicly traded builders had a 23% market share in 2005, which fell to 22% in 2007. We expect this to reverse over the coming years as banks restrict the capital available to privately held builders. We do not expect lenders to relax lending conditions in 2009, and lending might be slightly easier in 2010, but that would be the earliest date for lending activity and construction to increase.
The positive of this situation, we believe, is that the longer the banks resist lending, the faster the industry will recover from the oversupply. We expect the publicly traded builders to reach a market share exceeding 30%.
Strong balance sheets and/or solid (accurately priced) land inventory are key assets. While many home builders were slow to respond to the downturn, the more skilled management teams have focused on generating cash flow and delevering the balance sheet, which is a challenge at a time when land impairments would otherwise have resulted in significantly higher leverage ratios. We think KB Home (35% net debt to capital), MDC Holdings (minus-17% net debt to capital), Ryland (36% net debt to capital), and Toll Brothers (23% net debt to capital) are well positioned to take advantage of land opportunities.
Rising mortgage rates and lack of focus on selling, general and administrative expenses are the key risks. The worsening of affordability caused by rising rates would severely derail and delay any recovery.
Brazil May Become 3rd-Largest Oil Producer, Lula Says (Update1)
By Jeb Blount and Carolina Matos
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's offshore oil discoveries, including the Western Hemisphere's largest since 1976, may push the country past the U.S. as the world's third-largest crude producer, president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said.
``Brazil can become the world's third-largest oil producer without putting on a turban,'' Lula said today in Sao Paulo at a conference on social responsibility. By that, he said he meant Brazil can be a leading producer without giving up ``its Brazilian ways.''
Brazil, which ranks second to Venezuela among South American oil-producing nations, would need to more than triple its 2007 output of 1.83 million barrels a day to surpass the U.S. average of 6.88 million, according to estimates by BP Plc. Saudi Arabia produced 10.4 million barrels of oil a day in 2007 and Russia pumped 9.98 million, London-based BP estimated.
Lula is counting on so-called pre-salt oil deposits in an area stretching 800 kilometers (500 miles) off the coast near Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Reservoirs beneath as much as 3,000 meters (9,840 feet) of water and 7,000 meters of seabed may contain 50 billion barrels of oil, according to Peter Wells, director of U.K. research firm Neftex Petroleum Consultants Ltd.
State-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA said in November that its Tupi field may hold 8 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent, the biggest discovery in the Americas since Mexico's Cantarell field. Wells said his estimate for the pre- salt region was based on the expectation that there are four to seven similar prospects near Tupi.
Shipbuilding Plan
Lula, who took office in 2003, seeks to use rising oil production to benefit the broader economy, Latin America's largest. That plan includes an effort to revive Brazil's shipbuilding industry, once the world's second-biggest. Petroleo Brasileiro plans to order 28 drilling rigs from Brazilian shipyards for delivery by 2017.
Brazil must also work to improve working conditions in its sugarcane industry by mechanizing production and ending the practice of using fire to prepare fields for harvest, Lula said. Fires are used to remove razor-sharp leaves that can injure field hands.
Lula said he's working with business groups to achieve these goals and improve labor standards in the sugar industry.
Earlier this year ethanol surpassed gasoline as a vehicle fuel in Brazil, according to the country's oil and biofuels regulator. Brazil is the world's largest ethanol exporter.
i dag stiger forbrugs og finansaktierne, medens de 'stærke' resourceaktier falder
men de skal nok stige igen
og finans og forbrugsaktier skal endnu længere ned
den forstod pippen ikke
hun synes da det er godt at forbrugsaktierne stiger, for hun investerer slet ikke, men forbruger kun
de siger altid at det er slut lige før det begynder
pippen siger at vi har det helt store bullmarked i dag
Oil Shale Reserves
Oil Shale Reserves: Stinky Water, Sweet Oil
A Daily Reckoning White Paper Report
By Dan Denning
You won't think much of Rio Blanco County if you ever drive through it. In fact, unless you take a right turn off
Interstate-70 West at Rifle, head north on Railroad Avenue and then west on Government road to Colorado state highway number thirteen, odds are you'll never even step foot in Rio Blanco County.
But even if you keep heading west toward Grand Junction, through the town of Parachute and the shuttered oil shale
refineries from the 1970s, you'll see the Book Cliffs geologic formation on your right. For miles and miles. It's
a bleak landscape. Almost lunar. At first glance, it's the kind of land you'd never want to explore, much less settle
down in.
Oil Shale Reserves: America's Strategic Future
In the small world of geologists, though, the region is well-known. In fact, you might even say it's the single
most important patch of undeveloped, unloved, and desolate looking land in America. But you'd never guess this
particular corner of the Great American Desert may play an integral role in America's strategic future just by looking
at it. You'd never guess that the whole stretch of brown, red, and orange land contains enough recoverable oil and
gas to make you forget about the Middle East for the rest of time.
There are places in Rio Blanco County like Stinking Water Creek, named after the smelly mix of oil and water the first white settlers found there, that tell you oil's always been around the Rocky Mountains. It's just not always been easy to find. It's one thing to find oil that bubbles out of the ground in liquid form. It's quite another to drill a thousand feet down, and encounter oil locked up tight inside a greasy rock.
The first seeping pools of oil were discovered in Western Colorado as far back as 1876, the year the state entered the Union. But exploration didn't get serious until drillers settled in the town of Rangely in Rio Blanco County.
By 1903, thirteen different drillers had come and gone in Rangely. According to the local museum, the only six wells that actually struck oil were producing just two to ten barrels of oil a day. Hardly a Spindeltop, the gusher that launched the Texas oil-boom on January 10th, 1901, and immediately began producing 100,000 barrels per day.
The energy reserves of the Piceance Basin, upon which Rio Blanco County sits, contain massive petroleum reserves of a very unusual nature: Oil shale.
Oil Shale Reserves: A Congressional Legacy
Most of the nation's oil shale reserves rest under the control of the U.S. government - a legacy of a 95-year old
Congressional Act. In 1910, Congress passed the Pickett Act, which authorized President Taft to set aside oil-
bearing land in California and Wyoming as potential sources of fuel for the U.S. Navy. Taft did so right away. The Navy
was in the process of switching from coal burning ships to oil burning ships. And the U.S. military, conscious of the
expanding role of America in the world, needed a dependable supply of fuel in case of a national emergency.
From 1910 to 1925 the Navy developed the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves Program. The program became official in 1927 and President Roosevelt even expanded the scope of the program in 1942 as the U.S. geared up for war with Japan and Germany.
Several of the oil fields set aside for the nation's first strategic reserve, particularly Elk Hills in California,
would go on to produce oil for the U.S. government. Elk Hills was eventually sold off to Occidental Petroleum for
$3.65 billion in 1998 in the largest privatization in U.S. history. The shale reserves, however, still remain, locked
1,000 feet underground in the Colorado desert.
Unlocking The Future
The destruction of Hurricane Katrina shows the importance of a strategic petroleum reserve, or, more accurately, a
strategic energy reserve. But the SPR in Louisiana only holds about 800 million barrels of emergency, enough to get
the country through about 90 days of regular oil usage. That's barely a band-aid for a country that faces a potential
energy heart attack.
In other words, the future of oil shale may have finally arrived. Extracting oil from shale is no simple task, which
is why the reserves remain almost completely undeveloped. But an emerging new technology promises to unlock the
awesome potential of the oil shale.
"The technical groundwork may be in place for a fundamental shift in oil shale economics," the Rand Corporation
recently declared. "Advances in thermally conductive in-situ conversion may enable shale-derived oil to be
competitive with crude oil at prices below $40 per barrel. If this becomes the case, oil shale development may soon
occupy a very prominent position in the national energy agenda."
Estimated U.S. oil shale reserves total an astonishing 1.5 trillion barrels of oil - or more than five times the
stated reserves of Saudi Arabia. This energy bounty is simply too large to ignore any longer, assuming that the
reserves are economically viable. And yet, oil shale lies far from the radar screen of most investors.
But we here at The Daily Reckoning are on the case. Just yesterday, I caught a first-hand glimpse of a cutting-edge
oil shale project spearheaded by Shell. I trekked out to a barren moonscape in Colorado to tour the facility with
Shell geologists. To summarize my findings, oil shale holds tremendous promise, but the technologies that promise to
unlock this promise remain somewhat experimental. But sooner or later, the oil trapped in the shale of Colorado
will flow to the surface. And when it does, it will enrich investors who arrive early to the scene.
Can Oil Shale Change The World?
America's oil shale reserves are enormous, totaling at least 1.5 trillion barrels of oil. That's five times the
reserves of Saudi Arabia! And yet, no one is producing commercial quantities of oil from these vast deposits. All
that oil is still sitting right where God left it, buried under the vast landscapes of Colorado and Wyoming.
Obviously, there are some very real obstacles to oil production from shale. After all, if it was such a good
thing, we'd be doing it already, right? "Oil shale is the fuel of the future, and always will be," goes a popular
saying in Western Colorado.
But what if we could safely and economically get our hands on all that oil? Imagine how the world might change. The
U.S. would instantly have the world's largest oil reserves. Imagine…having so much oil we'd never have to worry about
Saudi Arabia again, or Hugo Chavez, or the mullahs in Tehran. And instead of ships lined up in L.A.'s port to
unload cheap Chinese goods, we might see oil tankers lined up waiting to export America's tremendous oil bounty to the
rest of the world. The entire geopolitical and economic map of the world would change…and the companies in the
vanguard of oil shale development might make hundreds of billions of dollars as they convert America's untapped
shale reserves into a brand new energy revolution.
Presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter may have been entertaining similar ambitions in the late 1970s when they
encouraged and funded the development of the West's shale deposits. A shale-boom ensued, although not much oil
flowed. The government spent billions and so did Exxon Mobil. New boomtowns sprung up in Rifle, Parachute,
Rangely, and Meeker here in Colorado.
And then came Black Monday. May 2, 1982. The day Exxon shut down its $5 billion Colony Oil Shale project. The
refineries closed. The jobs left (the American oil industry has lost nearly as many jobs in the last ten years as the
automobile and steel industries.) And the energy locked in Colorado's vast shale deposits sat untouched and unrefined.
Last week's punishment of the airline sector has provided loads of opportunity for those wishing to buy low. In fact, the AMEX Airline Index finished the week at a 15 year low of $18, almost $35 lower than its 52-week high of $53.
Soaring oil was the culprit for last week's bloodletting, although oil was up less than 5% on the week to the $135 mark, it did end up reaching a new all-time high and in the process, spooked investors into giving away their shares as panic dominated the Street with some stocks shedding as much as 50% (UAUA).
Analysts are talking the "B" word and credit agencies such as Fitch and S&P are busy downgrading many of the company's commercial paper. It's ugly and there is ample blood in the streets but losses for some, many times, end up creating gains for others, and buying the index at these oversold levels could provide substantial returns.
The Airlines are adjusting to high fuel prices quickly as many are in the process of enacting the following actions: (1) higher ticket prices (2) lower occupancy (3) fuel hedging contracts (4) overall cost cutting (5) consolidation within the sector (DAL merging with NWA) (6) charging for baggage, etc.
Many of the Airline's just emerged from Chapter 11 fairly recently with much less debt on their balance sheets as well as significant wage concessions from their various labor unions, so the entire industry has already been primed for a turnaround.
I wouldn't try and catch a falling knife at this juncture since the industry could slip further. There is no reason to argue with the market, no matter how irrational it may seem. It would be prudent to wait for the Index to start recovering before going long and not get in until the shares recover at least 10% above their lows—you might have to pay more, but it's well worth it, in order to be able to take advantage of the trend change.
The fund components include the following ticker symbols: AAI, ALK, AMR, CAL, DAL, GOL, JBLU, LCC, LUV, NWA, RYAAY, SKYW, TAM, and UAUA. All the carriers are domestic except GOL, RYAAY and TAM.
To illustrate how ridiculously low this index has reached, it's necessary to point out that the total market cap of the 14 components combined that make up the index is only $33 billion, yet these 14 companies generate sales of $136 billion per year equating to a price to sales ratio of 24% . In contrast, Yahoo's (YHOO) market cap is $5 billion more at $38 billion, yet YHOO's total sales are only $7 billion, making YHOO's price to sales ratio a very high 5.42. YHOO's price to sales ratio is almost 23 times higher than the AMEX airline's index. The comparison of these two ratios illustrate the significance of the "giveaway" occurring within the sector. Bargain hunters should take a closer look at this Index's holdings, because when the oil bubble eventually pops, we could see this fund quickly double.
flyproduktionen boomer stadig, men de tisser i bukserne
Oil Surge May Cost Jet Makers Orders
Airbus, Boeing Face the Deferral or Loss
Of up to a Third of Their Record Bookings
By J. LYNN LUNSFORD and SUSAN CAREY
June 25, 2008
As rising oil prices cause even the strongest airlines to struggle, Airbus and Boeing Co. face the possibility that as many as a third of their orders for new jets could be postponed or canceled.
Bloomberg News/Landov
Boeing could see fewer orders for its 737 (above), as airlines scale back purchases.
Driven largely by demand from airlines outside the U.S., the rival manufacturing giants over the past three years have collected almost 7,000 orders for modern fuel-efficient jets. For now, both jet makers say they are sold out for much of the next three years and are continuing with plans to raise production rates to meet demand.
But the landscape is shifting as oil prices rattle the underlying economics of the airline industry. Some airlines, including JetBlue Airways Corp. and Delta Air Lines Inc., are already taking steps to defer deliveries or rid themselves of orders. Others are starting to repeat steps they took after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, such as permanently parking gas guzzlers and selling newer jets to leasing companies for cash before leasing them back on a monthly basis.
The combined value of the orders for Airbus and Boeing planes exceeds $500 billion at list prices, so large-scale cancellations and deferrals could easily amount to tens of billions of dollars and affect suppliers of engines and other parts in addition to the jet makers.
Officials at Boeing and Airbus, a unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co., say orders for their jets are spread across a diverse group of carriers world-wide, insulating them from regional economic swings. But they acknowledge that they are in almost daily talks with airlines seeking to cancel or defer deliveries. Although most of these discussions involve U.S. carriers, signs of stress have emerged from India to Europe.
"Everything is on the table when an airline is looking for cash," says Steven Udvar-Hazy, chairman and founder of aircraft-leasing giant International Lease Finance Corp., a unit of American International Group Inc. and one of the manufacturers' largest customers.
Mr. Udvar-Hazy predicts that 25% to 30% of the two makers' order books -- roughly equivalent to the number of planes that were intended to accommodate airline growth rather than replace aging planes -- could be subject to what he called the "flake-out factor" if oil prices continue their unprecedented rise.
Indeed, with oil at more than $135 a barrel, some analysts, and even the manufacturers themselves, see potential game-changing circumstances on the horizon. Douglas Runte, a strategist with RBS Greenwich Capital who follows the airline industry, says that world-wide, "many airline business models cease to work at $135-a-barrel oil prices."
Airlines -- particularly the big U.S. carriers that withstood years of financial trauma after the 2001 attacks -- are in a quandary: They can't afford to fly their old gas guzzlers, and many of them can't afford to buy lots of new planes. Yet after years of putting off much-needed purchases, they also can't afford to wait to purchase more fuel-efficient replacements.
John Leahy, chief operating officer for customers at Airbus, says the bulk of orders should be safe as long as business travelers continue to fill seats, but that's no certainty as oil prices rise. "I think oil is going to have to go a bit over $150 a barrel before it forces a world-wide recession, which is when you would expect to see business travel start to taper off," he says. If that happens, he adds, "airlines would obviously have to take a closer look at their plans."
Scott Carson, president of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, says the U.S.-based aerospace company has been in close contact with "a number of our customers," particularly as fare increases have failed to keep pace with rising energy costs. "I don't think I've talked to any airline that believes this is a phenomenon that can be sustained given today's business model," he says. "We haven't seen any cancellations," he adds, "but we have had a couple of carriers ask to move their deliveries out of 2008 and into later years."
With demand for fuel-efficient airplanes hitting a record, both manufacturers say that some cancellations or deferrals would give them needed breathing room in their overbooked production schedules. The handful of delivery slots that have opened up are being snapped up by such carriers as AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, which is racing to replace some of its 300 MD-80 aircraft with new Boeing 737s, which are 25% cheaper to operate. The airline has also signaled it may try to accelerate the pace of adding new planes.
Continental Airlines Inc. and US Airways Group Inc. have relatively large numbers of planes on order and say they are committed to taking them. (UAL Corp.'s United Airlines has made a virtue of having not a single new plane on order and is now targeting 100 older aircraft for early retirement from its fleet.)
But some other U.S. carriers are beginning to trim around the edges of their orders, even as they accelerate the retirements of their oldest, least-efficient planes. Discounters JetBlue and AirTran Holdings Inc.'s AirTran Airways are both scaling back their once heady growth rates. JetBlue last month said it would defer deliveries of 21 Airbus A320s for about five years. AirTran said in April that it sold two nearly new 737-700s and deferred delivery of 18 more for four years.
Even Southwest Airlines Co., the most financially sound U.S. airline, says it is scaling back its growth rate and deferring some options to buy aircraft. The low-fare airline will take all 29 new planes it committed to this year, but it will accept only 14 in 2009 and similar numbers in subsequent years.
Delta recently disclosed that 34 of the 36 Boeing 737s it had on firm order were sold to third parties, enabling it to cut capital spending by $1.4 billion between now and 2010. A Delta spokeswoman says the airline took the step when it was in bankruptcy-court protection, not because of today's economic environment.
US Airways 18 months ago "in a different economic climate," decided to get rid of its old 737s, 757s and 767s and order new Airbuses, says Andrew Nocella, senior vice president of schedule planning. The airline is now "looking at a few changes to the order with Airbus" involving deferrals, he says, without disclosing details.
Northwest Airlines Corp., which remains eager to receive the 18 Boeing 787s it has on firm order, is nonetheless shrinking. It says it plans to sell 14 757s and A320s that it owns and that are paid off, and it will remove 33 elderly DC-9s from its fleet and try to find buyers, mostly outside the U.S., or sell them for parts.
"In the current environment, capacity has to come out of the industry," says Dave Davis, Northwest's chief financial officer. "That comes from retiring planes in the fleet and not taking delivery of new planes
Dow Chemical raising prices by another 25 percent
Tuesday June 24, 1:10 pm ET
By James Prichard, AP Business Writer
Dow Chemical raises prices by another 25 pct, cuts production in wake of rising energy costs
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (AP) -- Dow Chemical Co. announced its second wide-ranging price hikes in less than a month as it attempts to offset sustained record costs for energy and the soaring price of raw materials.
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The chemical company announced Tuesday it will raise prices by as much as 25 percent next month, less than three weeks after announcing price increases of up to 20 percent. The first round of price hikes took effect this month.
When Dow raises its prices, it is felt across dozens of industries that manufacture everything from diapers to automobiles.
Dow says it is trying to survive.
"We have to get them back to reinvestment levels where we can continue to build our business and to be there for the future," said spokesman Chris Huntley.
Dow said it's also adding a freight surcharge for North American customers of $300 per shipment by truck and $600 per shipment by rail effective Aug. 1. Those surcharges will spread to other regions later this year.
Dow is idling or reducing production at some manufacturing plants and taking unspecified cost-cutting measures at its automotive plants that have been directly impacted by a dreadful year for U.S. automakers.
The company had not yet worked out the details of its cost-cutting plan, Huntley said, "but it will certainly involve some people reductions, it will involve looking at how we can reduce costs around facilities, overhead and the external spending component."
Dow has automotive facilities in Michigan and throughout the United States, as well as overseas.
Chairman and Chief Executive Andrew Liveris said in a statement the steps are "extremely unwelcome but entirely unavoidable" as global energy costs surge.
"The price increases we announced May 28 helped, but they were not enough to fully cover the additional costs we are now facing," he said. "Even since our last announcement, the cost of hydrocarbons has continued to rise, and that trajectory shows no sign of changing."
Huntley, repeated pleas from Liveris last month, saying that leaders in Washington must immediately create a comprehensive energy policy that includes more domestic drilling for oil and natural gas, more money for alternative energy research and greater emphasis on efficient energy use.
"Dow has improved its energy efficiency by about 25 percent since 1995 and it's targeting 25 percent again between now and 2015," he said. "We've set targets and yet it seems that across industry and consumers and commerce as a whole, there's a reluctance to really drive the sector into efficiency, which is a key component to getting this right."
Dow would not say if more price hikes are imminent.
"If our costs continue to climb, then clearly we're going to have to raise prices," Huntley said.
Company shares fell 39 cents to $37.23 in afternoon trading.
Midland-based Dow makes everything from the propylene glycols used in antifreeze, coolants, solvents, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, to acrylic acid-based products used in detergents, wastewater-treatment and disposable diapers.
Its products are sold in 160 countries.
The company in April reported a 3 percent drop in quarterly earnings. At the time, Dow said it considered that a strong showing in the face of a 42 percent jump in feedstock and energy costs.
"We expect earnings to remain pressured," Deutsche Bank analyst David Begleiter wrote Tuesday in a note to investors.
AP Business Writer Jeff Karoub in Detroit contributed to this report.
pippen siger at aktierne er i plus, så hun mener da at der er tale om et bull marked
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned on Tuesday the U.S. economy was on the brink of a recession, with the chances of that happening at more than 50 percent.
man bliver mast, når man sidder i toppen af masten, så hellere kravle ned under kullene i bunden af robåden
The U.S. economy has been hit by a credit crisis which began in the sub-prime mortgage market, prompting a series of interest rate cuts to help boost the economy. But price pressures are growing, making more rate cuts unlikely.
Asked if the U.S. economy was in recession, Greenspan said: "We are on the brink."
A quick recovery was unlikely, he said via video link to a conference in Johannesburg. "A rebound at this stage is not something I think is in the immediate outlook," he said.
"There are still very considerable structural problems remaining in the financial system. They will remain for a while. It's going to be very difficult. There are a lot of unexpected adverse events out in front of us," Greenspan said.
Greenspan said he did not believe arguments that the housing problems in the U.S. were due to interest rates being too low during his tenure. "As far as I'm concerned, the data do not support it (that argument). The housing bubble is clearly an international phenomenon."
On South Africa, Greenspan said the country's Reserve Bank had been right to raise interest rates in the face of accelerating inflation.
"The problem that you have here is that ... significant pressures are coming from oil and food, but they are none the less real," he said. "The price increases are real and unless the central bank leans against them ... you will get a highly unstable inflation environment."
South Africa's central bank has raised its repo rate by 500 basis points to 12.0 percent since June 2006 to try tame inflationary pressures. But its targeted inflation gauge continues to accelerate, reaching 10.4 percent year-on-year in April.
U.S. coal producers have been largely unable to meet growing demand because of a lengthy permitting process, lack of capital investment and a shortage of skilled miners, which will keep supplies tight and prices high.
The underlying industrywide issues are compounded by severe floods in the Midwest, which have stranded barges full of coal and submerged railcars used to haul coal. It isn't clear what impact those interruptions will have on supplies and prices.
Paul Forward, a coal analyst with Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., expects demand for coal in the U.S. to outstrip supply this year by 15 million tons, in large part because of the increase in exports, which shot up 49% through April compared with last year. Constraints to production also played a role in the growing shortfall, he said.
Limited Supply Response
"Despite the strong margins that coal companies are seeing, the supply response has so far been limited," said Mr. Forward. "I think it's probably a couple years worth of time where these markets stay tight."
Up to 40 million tons of potential and anticipated coal production is being held back because of delays in obtaining environmental permits and new safety regulations, estimates David Khani, director of research at FBR Capital Markets Inc. in Arlington, Va.
While 40 million tons doesn't seem significant given that the U.S. produced 1.15 billion tons of coal last year, even small shifts in supply can have a big impact on price. The reason, analysts say, is that a large percentage of coal supply is tied up in multiyear contracts, so there is little slack to make up for production shortfalls. That could force some utilities to buy coal at current high spot-market prices and pass some of those costs on to consumers.
"People are going to get sticker shock when they open their electricity bills this summer and next summer," said Mr. Khani. Price increases will depend on rules in individual states and on the hedging strategies of utilities.
The Midwest flooding is expected to further tighten stockpiles, by taking several million tons of coal offline, said Vic Svec, a senior vice president at Peabody Energy Corp., in St. Louis, the world's biggest coal producer. Peabody expects to produce between 235 million and 245 million tons of coal this year, compared with 238 million tons produced last year. Roughly 10% of that production is high-quality coking coal in Australia.
The supply constraints are most acute in Central Appalachia, which accounts for 25% of the coal mined in the U.S. but has a greater impact on market conditions because coal from the region generates more heat per ton than coal from other areas like the Powder River Basin in Montana and Wyoming.
The spot price of Central Appalachian coal sold to both utilities and steelmakers has tripled in the past year, with coal going to utilities rising to as much as $140 a ton from $44 a ton, and that destined to steelmakers to $300 a ton, from $100 a ton. Coal production in the region declined 2.3% through early June compared with the same period last year, according to an analysis by Mr. Forward of Stifel, Nicolaus of U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
Hard to Increase Output
"In general it's hard in the short run in our business to dramatically increase production," said Thomas Hoffman, a spokesman for Pittsburgh-based Consol Energy Inc., the nation's fifth-largest coal company by production. "It's not like we have a bunch of idle production and we can just turn a key and out it flows like water through a pipe." Consol, which operates 16 mines in Appalachia and one in Utah, is hoping to boost production 10% to 70 million tons this year.
Industry officials say high operating costs are deterring small operators from opening mines to take advantage of high prices and help relieve supply constraints. Even big companies face higher costs associated with safety regulations and the inability to get enough mine workers. Massey Energy Co. said the biggest challenge to its plan to increase production by up to 9% this year is its ability to find and hire 300 to 400 new miners.
Dan Roling, chief executive of National Coal Corp., of Knoxville, Tenn., which operates mines in the Southeast, said the mining industry was reluctant to buy new machinery and develop new mines when prices were lower. "Until these higher prices [arrived], the industry has not been investing," he said.
As a result, mining companies aren't able to take full advantage of the strong demand.
Write to Kris Maher at kris.maher@wsj.com
INTERNATIONAL. Liquefied natural gas may become more expensive than crude oil as demand from Asia and Europe rises faster than supply, Sanford C Bernstein & Co said.
“It’s clear that LNG prices overall are set to rise towards parity with the oil price,” Bernstein analysts led by Neil McMahon said in a report yesterday. Sellers of the fuel are renegotiating contracts to increase prices, it said.
Prices may decline in 2009 and early 2010. After this, limited new supplies of LNG between 2010 and 2015 will make market conditions “very tight,” raising the potential of “an LNG premium above the oil price,” the report added.
LNG cargoes have sold for as much as US$20 amn cubic feet this year, Sanford said. Crude oil futures at today’s price of US$136 a barrel are the equivalent of about US$22 amn cubic feet, based on the energy content of the fuels.
The growth of import terminals will outpace the rise in LNG supplies to a point where global regasificaton plant capacity is more than double LNG production by the end of 2010, Bernstein said. Some planned LNG production projects in Nigeria, Australia and Iran will get pushed back into the second half of the next decade, Bernstein added.
Limited growth in alternative energy sources and long lead times for new nuclear power stations will mean demand for LNG grows at more than 10% a year, the report said.
Qatar, already the world’s biggest LNG producer, will boost LNG supplies by 45 million tons a year with six new production trains due to start before the end of 2010.
BG Group, the UK’s third-largest oil and gas company, will benefit the most from rising LNG prices. Bernstein estimates BG is diverting as much as 60% of its cargoes to Asia and 25% to Europe, raising its forecast for BG to 'outperform'.
humle og andre kan i ikke kigge på cherniere energy
de har import stationer i texas/lousiana, hvor de importerer flydende gas eller LNG og omdanner det tilbage til gas i luftform
verden over er der bygget en del stationer, der omdanner gas til afkølet flydende gas, der så transporteres via skib til diverse lande
men fordi gasprisen i usa i 2007 var nede omkring 4-5 dollar og den var på 18-20 dollar i asien og andre steder
har man eksporteret den flydende gas til asien og europa og ikke solgt til usa fordi priserne i usa var for lave
men nu hvor gasprisen i usa er på vej op og ligger over de 13 dollar tror jeg at der bliver en større eksport til usa
og cherniere har netop et anlæg, der kan tjene masser af penge hvis gasprisen stiger fortsat - aktien er faldet fra 40-50 til under 5, det er lidt af en købschance, hvis gasprisen kan tiltrække mere imort
men der en en risko for at de er ved at løbe tør for penge, så vi skal have undersøgt om de kan overleve inden vi køber
Natural Gas Prices Set to Jump 52%, EIA Says Published 06/23/2008 - 9:00 a.m. CT
iStock Photo WASHINGTON, D.C. — The government released a short-term energy outlook last week, revising projections for natural-gas prices upward. According to a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas will cost a whopping 52% more this year than last year.
Two months ago, the same forecast projected a 16.5% hike in the price of natural gas from last year, and last month, the projection was a 35% increase. Natural gas spot prices averaged $7.17 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 2007 and are now expected to average more than $11 per Mcf in 2008 and 2009.
High oil prices, lower imports of liquid natural gas, growing consumption and a year-over-year decline in inventories are contributing to price increases, the government says. Factors such as an active hurricane season could alter projections even more, EIA reports, and conditions will likely continue to keep prices high.
nu hvor olien er oppe i 130-140 niveauet bliver man syg af at læse alle de artikler om at usa går konkurs pga prisen på olie og at det er en katastrofe for usa
se nedennævnte rapport fra forbes, mage til vås skal man lede længe efter
for det første producerer usa, canada og mexico stadig næsten halvdelen af deres olieforbrug tilsammen
medens f. ex. europa både importerer halvdelen af deres olie og importerer stort set hele deres forbrug af gas og kul, så det er da meget værre i europa, hvis det skulle være rigtigt, det der står i artiklen og japan producerer slet ikke energi, men importerer stort set det hele
og det samlede energiforbrug baseret på kul og gas mm, betyder at usa/nordamerika er stort set 100% selvforsynende i kul og gas og har en del udvikling i alternativ energi og a-kraft og hydreenergi
så olieimporten set i forhold til det samlede energiforbrug i usa er ret lille og de høje energipriser, der nu er slået igennem også på kul og gasprisen betyder at der investeres så meget i energisektoren i usa, at det rigeligt opvejer den negative udvikling i prisen på import af energi og reduktion af forbrug pga øgede udgifter til energi
folk kan ganske simpelt ikke tænke eller lægge 2 og 2 sammen
Stratospheric crude oil prices precipitated by speculation are wreaking havoc on the U.S. economy.
Based on income tax withholdings data from the Daily Treasury Statement, the wages of all U.S. workers on payrolls were unchanged on a year-over-year basis in the past two weeks (Friday, June 6 through Thursday, June 19) and rose 1.1% year-over-year in the past four weeks (Friday, May 23 through Thursday, June 19). Both of those growth rates are well below the 2.8% year-over-year in May, and they are consistent with an economy that is contracting sharply.
As long as oil prices stay above $120 per barrel, the economy is more likely to slow than strengthen, and companies are not likely to announce much float shrink. With real wages falling, large numbers of jobs being shed, gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon almost everywhere and home prices falling about 1% per month nationally, this year is going to be tough for American consumers.
Believe it or not, there is plenty of oil in the world. What is in short supply are investors willing to go short oil futures. The open interest on oil futures worldwide is 2.6 million contracts. With oil prices at $135 per barrel, each contract is worth $135,000. To control $135,000 of oil, investors have to put up no more than $10,000. Click here for "Energy Bull Market: 6 Must-Own Stocks," a free special report from Forbes.
A hefty $1.3 billion per month flowed into commodity trading advisers (CTAs) in the first four months of this year, and $700 million per month flowed into commodity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first five months of this year. Those amounts do not even include investments through other vehicles by hedge funds and pension funds. The latest issue of Barron's reports that $55 billion flowed into commodity investments in the first quarter of 2008, and probably at least one-third of that amount was directed into long-only investments in oil.
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In any case, if half of the $2 billion per month inflow into CTAs and commodity ETFs were used to go long oil futures, it would be enough to go long 100,000 contracts, which is equal to 4% of the open interest on oil futures. In other words, open interest would grow roughly 50% per year just from inflows into CTAs and commodity ETFs.
What is happening now is not demand destruction, it is a financial disaster. The U.S. consumes 21 million barrels of per day. At $135 per barrel, the U.S. spends $1.0 trillion per year on oil, which is equal to 15% of the $6.8 trillion in take-home pay of everyone who pays taxes. If oil prices rose to $200 per barrel, the U.S. would spend $1.5 trillion per year on oil, which would be equal to 22% of take-home pay. Moreover, those percentages of 15% and 22% do not even include the cost of coal or natural gas. In other words, the U.S. will be broke long before oil prices hit $200 per barrel, and the rest of the world would be sure to follow.
Another way to put the oil crisis into perspective is to compare increased spending on oil to inflows into savings and investment vehicles. For every $60 per barrel increase in the price of oil, the U.S. spends an additional $450 billion annually, or $38 billion per month, on oil. In the past twelve months, the inflow into savings and investment vehicles--bank savings, certificates of deposit, retail money market funds, and all long-term mutual funds--was $744 billion, which is $296 billion more than the additional money the U.S. would spend each year on oil if the price of oil rose by $60 per barrel from its current level.
From April through June, the inflow into savings and investment vehicles was $35 billion per month, down 43% from $61 billion per month in the same period last year. In other words, the U.S. will generate almost no savings if the price of oil stays at $135 per barrel. If the price of oil rises even modestly from its current level, the U.S. will be operating at a deficit.
If regulators raised the margin requirement for oil futures to 25% from no more than 7.5%, the oil market would crack. Unfortunately for oil users, regulators are unlikely to boost the margin requirement, unless outside pressure becomes unbearable, because the income of commodity exchanges and traders would plummet.
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But there are two other solutions to the oil crisis.
The first is requiring major players in the oil futures market to disclose their total positions of all kinds in crude. Given the importance of oil to the U.S. economy, everyone should be able to know who is going long crude oil in a big way. Institutional owners must report what stocks they own at least semiannually. Why should they not be required to report the amount of crude oil they are long?
The second solution is for oil consumers to make a concerted effort to go short oil futures. The U.S. government has been spending $280 million per month, pumping 70,000 barrels of oil per day into salt caverns. Instead of buying oil, why not go short 35,000 contracts monthly at $8,000 per contract, in other words selling high the crude we bought relatively low? What if other major crude oil users also went short oil futures each month? What if the Japanese government, airlines, trucking companies and utilities spent several billion dollars to go short oil futures each month until the oil market came to its senses?
It is insane for the world to go broke while oil traders and a handful of gangsters who control their national oil production make huge fortunes
srlm - jeg er lidt forundret og ved ikke om den er værd at købe
men det er verdens største sølvmine de har, sunshine mining og de overtog den for en del år siden fordi sølvpriserne var så lave at man ikke kunne tjene penge på sølv
de startede produktion i november 2007 og har haft lidt indkørings problemer, men de producerer og har haft en stigende produktion her i 2q, men jeg ved ikke om de tjener pemge endnu
med en sølvpris på nu ca 17 dollar nede fra 2-3 for få år siden burde det da være en 'guld'grube, men kursen er faldet fra 4-5 til 1.25 her for nylig
så enten er det en chance eller osse er det ikke en chance
nogle synspunkter?
GSI og SUTR - to kinesiske stålproducener noteret i usa
ser billige ud
ekstrem høj vækst, fin indtjening, billig på PE
Stocks Waver as Autos, Financials Curb Gains
Topics:U.S. Dollar | Inflation | Economy (Global) | Economy (U.S.) | Federal Reserve | Central Banks | Stock Market | Wall Street
Companies:Citigroup Inc | Corn Products International, Inc. | Bunge LimitedBy Cindy Perman CNBC.com | 23 Jun 2008 | 03:01 PM ET Font size: Stocks wavered as oil's relentless ascent boosted energy stocks but a sharp drop in financials and autos curbed gains.
Anticipation of the Federal Reserve's rate decision this week also kept traders on edge.
Major U.S. IndexesDOW JONES IND....DJIA11828.27-14.42-0.12%NASDAQ NMS CO....NCOMP2388.47-17.62-0.73%S&P 500 I....SPX1315.9-2.03-0.15%
The market's gyrations follow a dismal week in which a concoction of rumors and bad news shook up the banking sector and the Dow industrials broke through the key 12000 mark.
Stocks got a quick pop at the opening bell as the dollar's rally initially erased morning gains in oil but U.S. light, sweet crude quickly turned higher, trading above $137 a barrel NYMEX CRUDE OIL FUTURES Front MonthUS%40CL.1
136.99 1.63 +1.2% BIS
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[US@CL.1 136.99 1.63 (+1.2%) ]. Oil stocks were the day's best performers, climbing nearly 3 percent. ExxonMobil EXXON MOBIL CORPXOM
86.81 1.90 +2.24% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[XOM 86.81 1.90 (+2.24%) ] was the top gainer on the Dow.
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Market Insider: Week Ahead
The Monday morning quarterbacking on the weekend oil meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia wasn't too encouraging.
"The only thing that's been achieved from this meeting is that we have a clear path to $150 and beyond," Stephen Schork, editor of energy publication The Schork Report, told CNBC.
General Motors GENERAL MTRS CORPGM
12.83 -0.96 -6.97% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[GM 12.83 -0.96 (-6.97%) ] dropped below $13 a share, a level the stock hasn't seen since 1975, making it the biggest drag on the Dow. Truck sales have languished so much amid soaring gasoline prices that GM has announced a zero-percent financing offer on pickup trucks and SUVs for 72 months.
Rival Ford FORD MOTOR COMPANYF
5.31 -0.50 -8.61% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[F 5.31 -0.50 (-8.61%) ] also tumbled as the Detroit Free Press reported that the auto maker has begun to lay off salaried workers; up until now, the cuts had only involved contract workers.
And, the hits just keep on coming for the banking sector.
Citigroup CITIGROUP INCC
18.58 -0.71 -3.7% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[C 18.58 -0.71 (-3.7%) ] is set to slash about 6,500 jobs in its investment banking division, the Wall Street Journal reported. Shares skidded more than 2 percent in early trading.
Not even the golden child of Wall Street is immune from the industry's ills -- Goldman Sachs GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCGS
178.81 -4.96 -2.7% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[GS 178.81 -4.96 (-2.7%) ] is expected to cut 10 percent of its investment-banking staff this year, the Financial Times reported.
Goldman analysts also issued a recommendation to sell financial and consumer-discretionary stocks due to the economic softness and buy into energy, materials and information technology.
American International Group AMERICAN INTL GROUP INCAIG
30.62 -1.48 -4.61% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[AIG 30.62 -1.48 (-4.61%) ] skidded after a weekend report in Barron's said the insurer's stock "will likely be dead money for some time to come."
Financials were the biggest decliner among 10 key S&P sector indexes, falling 2 percent.
Some investors had begun to dip their toes in the financial sector but those toes are few and far inbetween these days as strategists say there's still more to come.
"It might be a bottom on our short-term trade for the financials but I don’t think all the news is out yet," Nick Massey, VP of the Householder Group, told CNBC. "They can’t figure out what their assets are worth, how can you figure out where the bottom on the stock is?"
Outside of financials, though, the market looks attractive, Massey said. "We'll probably issue the buy signal this week," Massey said, adding that his team is looking at technology, emerging markets and health care.
Though, it won't be a straight shot up, so fasten your seatbelt.
The end of the second quarter comes a week from today and if the mood on the trading floor is any indication, it's going to go out with a whimper not a bang as a strong April and early May fizzled, leaving major indexes near their March lows.
The "C" word -- capitulation -- was tossed around the market last week but most traders and strategists said there would have to be a lot more pain for the market, which is retesting its lows for a second time this year, to hit rock bottom.
(What stocks should you be watching this week? Click on the video at left for five picks from the Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath.)
Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve this week as policy makers meet for two days starting Tuesday and are expected to announce their decision on interest rates on Wednesday. Ratings agency Moody's said it's clear that rate cuts are off the agenda, according to a newspaper report.
The Fed and the European Central Bank should coordinate actions and the ECB should not raise rates at its next meeting at the beginning of July, a Moody's official told Italian newspaper La Repubblica.
Despite the Fed being expected to remain on hold, mortgage rates have been rising recently and some buyers are coming back in the market to lock in before they rise even more.
In deal news, Bunge BUNGE LTDBG
110.19 -11.98 -9.81% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[BG 110.19 -11.98 (-9.81%) ] will buy fellow agriculture company Corn Products International CORN PRODUCTS INTL INCCPO
50.27 7.37 +17.18% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[CPO 50.27 7.37 (+17.18%) ] for $4.4 billion in stock, giving Bunge a bigger presence in commodities like corn sweeteners. Corn Products shares soared 22 percent in premarket trading, while Bunge shares also gained 3 percent.
And disposal company Republic Services REPUBLIC SERVICES INCRSG
30.88 -0.31 -0.99% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[RSG 30.88 -0.31 (-0.99%) ] said it will buy Allied Waste Industries ALLIED WASTE INDS INCAW
13.17 -0.39 -2.88% NYSE
Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[AW 13.17 -0.39 (-2.88%) ] in a $6.07 billion stock deal that would join the second- and third-largest players in the disposal industry.
du kan da bare købe en diesel bimmer, de kører længere på literen og har endnu flere heste
Økonomerne i Den Internationale Valutafond (IMF) løftede fredag forventningen til næste års vækst i USA fra 1,6 pct. til 2 pct., da den økonomiske nedtur ikke har været så stor som ventet. Derfor kan hurtige renteforhøjelser blive nødvendige, mener IMF.
så pippens opsving og nye bull marked er i fuld sving fordi kina og resten af den fattige verden trækker usa op i ny opgang med stigende aktier ti følge, men det har hun jo forudset for længe siden
IMF har i denne uge holdt møder med repræsentanter for USA's regering, og på den baggrund har man løftet vækstforventningerne. I år ventes stort set flade væksttal.
"Opbremsningen i USA har været mindre end frygtet, og et comeback vil formentlig begynde næste år, da de største barrierer er forceret. En endnu hurtigere genrejsning er muligt, når man tager de omfattende politiske stimuli og forudseende svar fra finansmarkederne i betragtning," skriver IMF i en pressemeddelelse.
Valutafondens økonomer mener, at det nye økonomiske scenarium bør få den amerikanske centralbankchef Ben Bernanke til at overveje et hurtigt pengepolitisk indgreb i opadgående retning for at tage en stigende inflation i opløbet.
Så sent som i sidste uge var Bernanke selv ude og sige, at den økonomiske nedtur var aftagende.
skulle du ikke have købt nogle oil sands quest warrants, - det kan nås endnu hvis man regner med at aktien fortsætter stigningerne
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BQI-WT
strategisk set
tror jeg at usa er på vej ind i et nyt opsving i forbrug og boligbyggeri og selvom det går langsomt så tror jeg at bunden er nået og at mange forbrugsrelaterede aktier kan stige meget hvis de altså også er faldet meget
og boomet i resten af verden trækker usa op især de aktier, der har stort salg i resten af verden
olieprisen er kommet så højt op at jeg tror at selvom israel angriber iran så vil olieprisen alligevel stabilisere sig omkring 100-120 dollar og inflationsfrygten vil aftage gradvist
iran har det problem at deres eget olieforbrug stiger stærkt fordi det boomer i iran og derfor vil de ikke kunne standse olieproduktionen hvis de bliver angrebet for så har de ingen eksportindtægt
men det kunne da være rart at få det overstået så det ville være dejligt med et lynagreb fra israel på de iranske atomanlæg
så kan man bedre få overblik over konsekvenserne
men et angreb fra israel på iran inden præsidentvalget i usa vil skabe yderligt pres på hvad de forskellige (2) præsidentkandidater har tænkt sig at gøre i mellemøsten
men jeg tror ikke der sker noget på olieprisen, den er kommet højt nok op og vil nok holde sig omkring de 100-150 dollar i en række år uden at komme højere op og så vil den bare svinge frem og tilbage i det interval medens man skal høre på de mange ulidelige analyser om at den skal op i 250 eller ned i 50
og præsidentsvalgs talk er jo no-talk, men bare en fremføring af idelogiske synspunkter eller nærmere sagt mantraer uden reelt indhold, så det skal man ikke bruge tid på at lytte til
ausmelt i australien som jeg har en del i og som nu er steget yderligere til ATH uden at være ramt af nedgangen i aktierne
har fortsat acceleration i ordrer på deres teknologi til at smelte metaller af forskellig slags rundt omkring i verden
men grunden til at jeg skriver om den nu er at deres seneste præsentation fortæller om
at de også kan bruge deres smelte teknologi til jernmalm
og at man kan bruge almindelige steam coal i stedet for coaking coal, hvilket er interessant fordi coaking coal stiger endnu mere end steam coal og er oppe på ca 300 dol medens steam kun er på 150
og så behøver man heller ikke at lave sinter eller pellets, men kan bruge jernmalmen direkte til at lave stålet
jeg tror godt den kan ende med at blive en 10-bagger, foreløbig har jeg vidst 100% på den, men husker ikke lige hvad jeg har betalt for den
deres ordrer i 1 halvår er 43 mio sammenlignet med den seneste omsætning på omkring 25 mio dollar om året, så ordrebogen vokser eksponentielt og den er billig på pe, så der er ingen risiko med et selskab, der først skal til at tjene penge engang langt ud i fremtiden
men som sagt det er jo snart længe siden at jeg har købt den og den demonstrerer hvad en strategisk næse er værd
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080612/pdf/319lpxw7t8vml5.pdf
der findes da adskillige producenter af både alumina og bauxite, der sælger deres 'produkt' videre til næste trin i fødekæden