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$15 ($6.677B) is BO benchmark. Now we know! That's the figure a lot of us thought. It's also a base figure that will more than satisfy a vast number of shareholders. And remember, it could go higher.
Holt has a lot of skin in the game and will definitely not be satisfied to take less.
You asked: "Mr. Stockboy, what do you see going forward and where do you see the share price of Amarin going to excluding a buyout and eventually including a buyout?"
My answer is conditioned on variables. Variable one - IF data supports the use of Vascepa for Alzheimer's, the launch and rise of the pps will be staggering because any treatment for Alzheimer's is critical at this time. Covid was always a whim, but Vascepa's possible application for the health of the brain is tenable. Variable two - Alex et al executing a BO of which I am confident will happen no later than 2025. Variable three - Is gaining countries like France, Italy, Spain, etc. 2023-24 and a robust global build-out.
My answer is also based on observation. Denner's own investment basis and the $26pps peak. Plus, Alex himself understands the value of Vascepa and will want whatever he thinks it merits. Yesterday, we learned Alex's BODs hired the right person with the right skill set to turnaround Amarin and execute a BO; Amarin proactively challenged generics by squeezing the brand price; Alex's BODs down-sized the company for all the right reasons (I noticed Keenan was appointed EU President; Zwick given IR), and apparently unproductive sales staff were properly terminated, this all equal cost savings going forward. Alex also needs and is working on other HF partnerships he trusts.
Now, what price? I've been here for years now, and the real problem until 2023 has been the recent incompetent CEO and greedy self-serving BODs costing the company millions of inexcusable mistakes. I'm glad to say that's now in the rear view mirror. So, what price?
I personally don't think $3B is even on Alex's radar screen. $5B? Possibly so, which is around $10-12pps. But here's where the Alzheimer's variable comes into play and anything else Amarin may be hiding in research. Meanwhile, if by 2024 real traction is generating increasing revenue, surely then, this will be viewed as real value. Finally, there's no emotion here, but I don't see north of $6B / $13-15pps (and that's assuming Denner/Holt et al have truly turned-around Amarin) without something like Alzheimer's.
Make today's lemon into lemonade!
This is a classic, GS orchestrated, bear raid reaping no less than 25% gains for those in on the game. Sadly, a good number of these types are among the bashers and flippers on IHUB. Vascepa was never going to cure COVID, so relax but do keep your eye on Alzheimer's ball. Who among longs was not celebrating the moment you read the choice of Holt and his impressive credentials? Who among longs smiled that very quietly in Q2 Amarin put a price squeeze on generics who already market an inferior copy? Who among longs was surprised 3 Execs (with Zwick nearly gone too) as the faces which remain do the necessary face-lift for a BO?
Seriously, I know the pps is frustrating for many, but if you go back to why you bought in the first place maybe somewhere in there you'll remember your conviction EPA is a game-changer, and the journey will be rugged, steep, and hard. The pain inflicted from all sides has led you to wallow in the mire of misery. Now.... deep breath... it's all okay!!! SMILE LAUGH
You now go on delete (gone). JonCQ the board idiot.
Amarin's New CEO appointed to sell Amarin (Breaking News)
Holts CEO appointment clearly announces Alex Denner's BOD on behalf of shareholders fully intend to sell Amarin LLC.
I needed to post this because no one has (yet). The significance to the share price is obvious. Alex's insane repay is $5/share which we flat out denyl
Anything above $10/share, Holt will be pushing. But don't jump on yet because the USA billion dollar market still exist, as does the EU and the ROW. Plus, and I know you little Debbie Downers hates this, but so does Alzheimer's. Ouchy, ouchy!
Watch volume. Anyone throwing a buck sees an easy ten! Even higher!
You gotta LOVE AFTER-HOURS, right?
Amarin after KM & BOD wasted millions defending their jobs, still finish cash flow positive: $9M. Well done Alex!
Alex's BOD did what was necessary: fired non-essential Executive VPs including KM's boy in the EU. Thank heavens!
Alex's BOD also held Berg's feet to the fire as unproductive sales staff in the USA wasn't even given a cake goodbye! Later gators!
Love Holt. He's here for one purpose: tidy up Amarin and sell Amarin. It's now public news. ANYONE BUYING AT THE CURRENT PRICE is going to make a HEFTY RETURN... $1 to $5... $1 to $10... $1 to $20... you get the point, right??? This is probably one of the hottest biotech buys out there honestly.
I love everything about Holt even if Berg (deal cut) gets axed. It's all okay. Zwick must be valuable as they dumped on him INVESTOR RELATIONS. HAHAHA. Poor Zwick. He's a pony boy. Let's all write to Zwick! hahaha (belly laugh inserted)
In the final analysis, these were the 2 BEST PR'S I'VE READ in 4-5 years!!! Alex, you have our confidence.
Let's remember (burp) Capt (burp) Beer... haha the best Sunday School teacher EVER...
How much did Karim & BOD burn? $5 or $6M excluding the Germany debacle
Alex clearly had an impact on Q2... we are CASH POSITIVE... BOTTOM LINE.
What's also interesting is how they apparently stripped out non-productive sales workers in the USA... I liked reading that... USA is now a sales team of high performers otherwise move on!
Actually QUITE AWESOME: Executive heads rolled... EU VP loser to start... Communications VP bye bye.... Human Resources VP adios.... We're down to a lean and mean Executive Team! No complaints from me! And Holt? It's obvious. He's here to ultimately sell Amarin. Any long investor should sleep well tonight. Holt's mission is obvious: Sell the company at the highest value. Great job Alex!!!
PS I'll give Zwick credit. That Alex kept him means he's worth it. Congrats Zwick!
PPS Amarin's war-chest of cash grew!
OK I’ll explain Mitigate. Kaiser aimed to undermine the EPA effect but failed under the thin veil of the Covid virus. Amarin is certainly not going to press release on a trial aimed to disprove EPA. Good people keep your eye on the ball. Kaiser hoodwinked a lot of you.
Strong BUY Alert: Positive Q2 Earnings, Amarin is reentering a new growth phase in compounding revenues as the trickle down from global operations (EU & ROW) begin to add value to the USA & Canada markets showing signs of generic recapture and new dedicated Vascepa script users. Alex Denner's Amarin has turned a significant corner demonstrated by revenue signs the company is back in growth mode. The old saying, 'the proof is in the pudding' (credit Moe Howard) is turning investor heads as the severely under-valued stock not only got the green light in China, is moving forward in the EU launch, but well-managed kept-at-a-low-cost research is glimmering with enterprise opportunities for EPA in combinatorial formulations, even the possibility of delaying dementia and Alzheimer's. The Denner-driven BOD and Executive Team have set a new course and the first $10/share benchmark looks to be sooner rather than later as there are now so many positive signs of a growing revenue stream. Biotech stocks being volatile and risky, triple percent gains are appearing more likely as the Denner touch has rebirthed a new Amarin.
High Alert: New patent application calls for "ultra-pure EPA" United States Patent Application 20230210806 Once again, the EPA enterprise is already planning/in motion for next generation EPA.
Good to hear John!
If it's any reassurance, Alex got into Aaron's face about the USA, big time! Poor Aaron was beaten down by Karim the money grabber so much, he had Aaron believing the USA was a lost cause. Alex straightened that all out as logic demonstrates--the USA has been funding Amarin Q after Q and there's still another billion sitting out there. Alex has Aaron right where he wants him: puppet, thus any CEO replacement will be if that makes sense.
POSITIVE EARNINGS QUARTER predicted by Sunday School teacher known as CaptBeer. This Beer SS teacher is someone a lot of people trust (I do) and I agree John but think we may be above $6 by Christmas even double digits if Alzheimer's or something else rings the bell!
Amarin is a buyer's dream right now!!!
The correct analogy for you JohnHQ is Viagra... someone's little friend is waking up-in this case, Amarin stock price!!!
Beats on Q1, Beats back on generics in USA, Beats forward in ROW, Amarin REGAINS 'THE BEAT'.
Hear me now. The upward advance of the pps has begun and is just beginning. The USA remains a billion dollar opportunity and Amarin is beginning to overtake the generic competition (legally and rightfully so). Berg is Alex's puppet, and Berg's learning the new script which brotha Beer charts for him every week... now everyone is attending Sunday School thanks to brotha Beer.
I will continue to beat the drum revenues are growing, and will grow hereafter. The revenue wave is building and will become a tsunami. Again, the recent patent was a formulation patent which if in clinical trials showed a synergistic effect, it's off to the moon! Some of you may not be aware, but synergistic combinations are also of interest because they can yield real surprises. The EPA enterprise is growing and WS is beginning to wake up.
BULLISH CALL: My friend Alex sees billion dollar opportunity in the USA as CaptB is confirming with data.
Our current puppet CEO is cooperating nicely with Alex so it's a match made in heaven. Meanwhile cost-cutting continues but not the behind the scenes next generation research which is very doable until you get beyond phase 2. No doubt Alex's team of executives are communicating with the FDA about a path for any combination drugs. The new Diabepa (EPA/diabetes) drug now has patent exclusivity written all over it. Soon we'll be hearing about Alzheimer's but I'm more excited about the turnaround in script data. Step by step Amarin is winning the battle like Ukraine not willing to bow to Russia.
Today, I'm issuing a STRONG BUY on the belief Q2 earnings will outpace Q1 and show an upward projectory as USA plus ROW sales begin to show a new leg of traction going into the second half of 2023. I see the potential for multiple percent gains over the next six months. This is an exciting time to invest in Amarin led by Alex.
Thanks Alex (thanks CaptB for data)!
In July, USA Vascepa sales outpaced January - June.
Loved Caps Curley Fine quote. We are winning the USA!!!
Respectfully, you really are uninformed.
This is a new formulation incorporating other drugs under the claim section which if you read it, you might better understand this isn't a Vasepa plus statin, but a brand new formulation which will need to be studied and will need FDA approval. It's a future generation and it will probably be given a new name because it will not be Vascepa, maybe
Diabepa for those with diabetic and CVD risk
Generics won't be able to swoop in until the patent expires.
If Vascepa Plus is a new patent formulation for CVD-ONLY and/or DIABETES/CVD-ONLY, it not only is new formulation (look at the claims section), it would be patent protected, and yes, Amarin would need to conduct a clinical study. But that said, this could be of equal interest to a BO since it adds significant value to the life-cycle.
Something needs to made clear here: Vascepa PLUS is not Vascepa -- just compare the formulation. It is a next generation drug.
New 4 July patent CANNOT be copied by generics until the patent runs out.
The above stated, it's why I rarely post because right after informing all of you of a new patent the drum gets beat that generics can copy it. NO THEY CAN NOT! NOT UNTIL THE PATENT LIFE RUNS OUT!
It's no wonder this board is a circus. Amarin has multiple next generation Vascepa-Plus in the works be it for diabetes or CVD, but the drug combination is unique and cannot be copied unless the court throws it out or expiration occurs.
Now go back and read the 4 July patent. It's stellar, even amazing. It opens the door to the diabetes and CVD market.
Amarin's BEST PLAN IS TO CREATE AN EPA COMBINATION DRUG WHICH MAY INCLUDE BUT ALSO MAY GO WELL BEYOND THE ADDITION OF A STATIN. This patent sets the stage. Wake up! As long as the patent stands, generics cannot copy it until it expires. Amarin plans to get there.
I personally believe the next-generation is ESSENTIAL TO VALUING A BUY-OUT. This is beyond Alzheimer's which I still think scientifically has a real opportunity! Friends, don't count Amarin out! It's beaten down, and will likely explode!
Publication Date:
07/04/2023
Amarin receives US patent on next generation Vascepa-Plus. https://www.freepatentsonline.com/11690820.html
The unique feature here is what is potentially added: PPAR agonist (e.g. diabetes drug) plus arachidonic acid (AA) (Omega-6 fatty acid) plus other items plus an antioxidant. No mention of statins in this patent in the claim section.
Smart invention. Not something generics can copy if it's only approved for CVD and is Vascepa-PLUS.
I'll speak for Denner. He bought Amarin shares because like many of us he understands Vascepa/Vazkepa is a franchise drug worth billions in the right hands. The combo idea is another way to extend/broaden revenues/avenues, just as an indication for Alzheimer's would be an absolute coup sending the share price north of $50 in a heartbeat. The problem was who was behind the Amarin wheel making repeated gross errors such as Germany. The point of the Amarin spear was dull (JT) and inexperienced (KM), and a fat cat BOD et al needed a thorough weeding out. If you haven't noticed the USA is being valued by Berg (after he got a tongue lashing) because it's still an untapped monstrous opportunity; well, Berg at least learned his lesson, so don't suggest Denner isn't actively at work, and the package Denner wants in the BO is lucrative. So much nonsense around about $5, $10... what a total joke. Denner is on one mission: Sell Amarin, but sell it for every multi-billion plus the Vascepa enterprise can be.
Meanwhile, do not any of you realize why there has been no CEO appointed? Simple, Denner is the CEO behind Berg, and Berg is willing to do Denner's bidding. If any CEO does get appointed, he will answer to Denner, and BOD's owing to Denner will always hold the Executive team in check (which actually I think they are happy to do because a BO means a lot of money for them too).
Amarin canNOT be sold YET. Positive or negative, the Alzheimer study must be revealed as it would be a mega-huge add-on to the valuation. It's nice to read more positive comments. If I may add, Pfizer has often bought shares of companies it plans to takeover at some point.
You're implicated as part of the anti-Denner voice. You come on here and attack Denner; it's really nauseating.
The investment HFs have enormous power to do what they've done, but the opposite is also true.
Vascepa is an enterprise drug with multiple opportunities.
We are now standing up as Alex Denner knows the score.
Time to expose the lies
Alex is well aware of the effort to devalue the firm to spark a fire-sale. Alex is also aware how a number of you here participate (on a daily basis) to promote doom and gloom; this isn't Alex's first rodeo. There are however really genuine people like CaptBeer, ranfan60, and couldbebetter, and he knows this.
Alex is also aware Vascepa/Vazkepa is multi-billion dollar asset. Alex is also aware BP would be happy to wear the Amarin BOD down for a cheap buyout. But it's not going to happen. Not on Alex's watch.
You snakes, roaches, and devils seem to under-estimate Alex Denner. The current pps game is all about trying to make private investors to give up, sell at a loss, and move on. It's classic. Thing is, the private majority aren't doing that; they still think Vascepa/Vazkepa is an enterprise opportunity to continue expansion, and guess what? So does BP.
Know this. Alex Denner is just getting started. And a lot of changes were reflected at the last conference (e.g. USA market is actually quite lucrative, and NOT LOST).
Meanwhile, the minions will line up, so be it. But Denner is just starting. Shame on any private investor whose been drinking the cool-aid. Denner's the real deal.
I remain optimistic and bullish as I rely on my intellect vs the emotional drama on today's IHUB 'As the World Turns' show. Why?
For one, Berg's presentation changed 180 degrees from the previous one just days before--clearly Denner & BOD were speaking through Berg communicating: 'We get it! The pps stinks! A lot stinks!' But it didn't end there. Berg painted a FRESH PICTURE which (1) revalued the USA as a true asset and he got to boast a little, and (2) he emphasized how they have picked up speed in the EU and strategically concentrating on the UK, and (3) he spoke a bit about global developments and how they were reserving cash. Berg said more in this recent speech then I've heard in five years!
And Berg's speech also set the stage for selling the company down the road as the turn-around story is now on the way. Make no mistake: Denner will shop this company, and most likely, already is. I now hope for Alzheimer's because it will cause the 'As the World Turns' show on IHUB to be canceled.
I'm beginning to think the drama show on Amarin IHUB is growing old. Of course, all IMO.
I'll end here, but I'm surprised the IHUB good people aren't talking about Berg's comments today. It is a 180 degree turn in the right direction!
BIG STEP when Berg says "we don't like where we are" and directly refers to the pps/valuation, and how they need to get going. IMO Denner's BOD are doing what we elected them to do. Drive value. I view this conference as the beginning of a turn-around story. IMO.
BERG FIRES AT GS!!!! Wow! Wow! Wow! Totally shocked by Berg's new speech at GS. It has Denner written all over it and indicates they are listening to shareholders. For example, Berg first mentions the pps and expresses frustration and how it must ASAP be addressed--wow, first time pps has ever been mentioned--this was not a mistake. Two for example, Berg with GS spends a significant amount of time defending the value of the USA and how it's still important to Amarin--wow, wow, wow! FINALLY!!! Three... well I'll stop!!! IMO BERG CAME OUT FIRING!!!
Think carefully: Why didn't Denner-BOD tap the EU VP for temporary CEO?
It's clear Denner & his BOD are righting the Amarin ship when Berg expressed in my words, 'tomorrow is today' = expediency. This implies a lot of pressure has been put on the executive team to expedite their activities for approvals. I'm more than willing to wait thru Q3, and I'm willing to wait for the Alzheimer's read-out. If Berg is named CEO than apparently he has impressed the new regime, but it's more likely a BO specialist CEO is what Amarin is targeting. This is IMO and it's all speculation, so thank you for wasting your time reading my evening thoughts.
for denner and bod not recognize how berg is causing ongoing damage, that disturbs me. berg behaves like a deer in headlights then make excuses for himself. come on! at six figures he could at least lie thru his teeth! (joking) but really, denner needs to pull him NOW berg's a goner
on another note, i'm personally tired of the 'woe is me' attitude since the Du disaster decision because a real management team is there to respond to contingencies like rolling up your sleeves and going after that $1B USA market you boasted about. i'm not one for excuses not when Amarin still holds the legal hand for CVD and all the illegal stuff going on. personally after acquiring a buy-out CEO specialist i'd fire berg the next day--for a USA CEO he's lost my respect; how anyone can support him is beyond me. i'd advise denner to cancel all conferences until the real-deal ceo shows up. berg's a deficit, period.
couldbebetter, you remain one of my favorite poster/fellow investors. You're level-headed, optimistic but not overly so, and bring a fresh perspective. Like many others on IHUB it's a refreshing night's read of daily activity.
while the berg thesis may correct a ceo-buy-out-expert would be more credible imo because that would send a clear message why he/she is being hired.
i agree with you as do I think the majority of longs that only BP is equipped for the big roll-out, so imo now that we have China, i'm figuring two major EU countries probably rounds things out with the UK. so if Amarin gains France, Spain, or Italy (2 of 3) despite Germany that may be it.
the only caveat is Alzh imo. i would hate to sell the company if positive results came back. that could be our rocket to the moon imo.
Shooting from $1 to $12 to $25 can happen again, and at least long investors are talking about it. I threw out $100 for shock value but if AD is true then I see no reason not to rise to $50 or higher. Alex believes in Vascepa so be nice and start like CaptB offering positive posts. Well that's how I feel... I'd like to read more upbeat posts who are thankful and have hope.
We're on the same page. Alex, Matt, Hull, Bhatt, the team, they all know Vascepa is a LEGACY DRUG and they just need to cross the goal line. I'm actually very pleased with Alex's BOD's including Berg who did what he was told.
I know for a fact because I've corresponded with Alex he's not anything like what's getting posted here which makes me ponder peoples' motives.
Alex researched Vascepa long before he purchased and he entered at a really excellent point demonstrating his savvy. He has his team in place and his view about the LEGACY aspect of Vascepa hasn't changed. Some of you, maybe more than a few, need to read up on Bhatt et al who published what they perceive could be Vascepa's advantage beyond CVD. It's compelling reading.
At the same time, Hull, Budoff, and others are a part of my own confidence and why I wait. Everyone! Have a great day!
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7537800/
IMO Vascepa will prove useful in multiple uses one being blood flow. Amarin has a LEGACY DRUG and not all of WS is ignoring the truth. Our doc friend Matt Budoff already proved 'mechanism' as a start EVAPORATE, but WS says 'show me the money' and BRAVE will be a huge BIGGY IMO Even corresponding as I did with Matt before EVAPORATE results. I mean Matt already demonstrated it reverses arteriosclerosis and that has major implications for body organs including the brain. I also picked up enthusiasm via personal correspondence from doc Hull in Leeds about Vascepa's potential beyond CVD--he's been doing research as well. The current problem among investors is too many are allowing temporary discouragement from seeing the big picture; trust me Denner sees the big picture as we also corresponded last year before he made his move; the guy's not being fairly portrayed here IMO
Given low volume trading and decades of investing experience, running Amarin into double digits isn't rocket science. I'm being honest here when I think Vascepa may prolong the onset of Alzheimer's based on research I've been doing for a few years. If that were the case, here comes $100/share and honestly that's part of why I hang in here... Just being honest.
I'm inclined per my own research that Vascepa is one of those legacy drugs with more than one major application. I seriously think Alzheimer's is the biggy here and it's why I stay.
Sarissa's silence is really what is troubling investors. They communicated non-stop, won the election, saw the BOD & CEO resign, and yet Denner's been completely silent ever since. That's what's troubling investors.
IMO Berg did a reasonably good job and withstood plenty of heat from the Q&A drill down who I thought was close to being hostile. I'm surprised Berg maintained his composure, but what's readily apparent is WS doesn't think Amarin is big enough to do the kind of roll out a BP would--no surprise there! So what's the end game? Keep gaining approvals, maintain costs, and build out the reason why no one like me wants the company sold for anything less than $15/share. IMO what needs to happen is for Sarissa to issue a PR regarding Amarin explaining what they are doing and how they have growing optimism--Sarissa (Denner) needs to say something.