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wow....just tuned in....did the b of a analyst say something on the call?....all i know is....idc has had many opportunities to "jump the gun" on earnings in the past....and theyve never taken the bait....im pretty confident that if they reported it....its a done deal...it makes no sense to go out on the limb....they have accountants and lawyers that have to sign off on this kind of stuff...their behavior with the tender offer....probably could have predicted something like this.....full steam ahead!!!!
vegas....i hear you....they are playing russian roulette....but so far it hasnt hurt them on the new shares shorted into tender....they had 4myn short...now 3myn...thats still a lot for 27myn outstanding
it would for your shares....the main impediment is that institutions own the vast majority of the shares....and lending is a source of incremental return for them...so they do it freely
i agree...they are susceptible to squeezes on unexpected good news....but right now ...they are laying on the stock like a seal on the rocks.....and they usually win on low volume slogs....i understand it ....and accept it....ive been here a long time...and have seen a lot.....
vegas....there are also almost 3myn shares that are being provided by the shorts...which the institutions freely lend them shares to do so....i know its not part of the float...but they are there.....and the shorts always have outsized short term influence when they are active
im going to say it was accumulation....mostly in the form of the 2.8myn share tender offer
small increase in short interest as of 3/15...now 3.992myn
the legal outcomes....as always are as clear as mud...the patents involved here are a small fraction of the total portfolio......i do know that this decision moves the needle forward on infringement....and nobody in their right mind would award a rate lower than apple pays idc per unit for the whole portfolio...thank god we're not silly enough to go sit in a courtroom and watch this krap unfold...anymore!!!!
idc offered 337myn for a six year license....which 6 years and when did they make that offer?.... and the 138myn is only through the end of the year......and lenovo will have to negotiate a new license
Let's keep an eye out for any analyst comments
Sounds good to me....that's a very explicit ruling!!!!.
cat....you took the words out of my mouth....short term treasuries are yielding 5%....the coupon on the converts is 3.5%.....that is the textbook definition of positive carry.....good work if you can get it...especially in this market!!!
short interest now 3.8myn+ as of 2/28....in the words of marvin gaye...LETS GET IT ON!!!
Still trading above tender....market is weak....although today's news about LIBERAL west coast bankers not obeying the rules of banking....will put an end to the tightening cycle....the good comes with the bad that leads back to the good.....idc is in good shape...like I've said before...it's a great bad market stock
its a no brainer...div will be increased at least ten pct...which would keep current amount idc spends on dividend equal to last qtr...my guess is...minimum of 20% increase....my target would be 50c per qtr 2 dlrs per year for a yield of 3% at 75 per share...over the next year or so
volume is a problem for the shorts....no non -sellers remorse from missing out on the tender...volume only 125k as of 3.55...
short interest seems a little out of control....volume is starting to dry up....only 163k so far today.......a little more good news....and we might get one of them fabled "short squeezes" ....its happened here before....it can happen again....i hope idc continues to press the buyback....give them no room to maneuver!!!
cat....there are so many moving parts here right now that im having trouble keeping track....but we know the shorts have a big ally....and he;s not afraid to put his rep on the line...i think he winds up with tire tracks all across his back....but right now its happening in front of our eyes...i must admit...i used to own 20x the shares i own now.....but im having more fun with this stock than i ever had....it feels like the 25 year baby is about to be delivered!!!
upon further analysis ....that was Tuesdays trade of the 85 puts....everything else stands...26 myn shares....and delivery into the variety of options and tender needs....is becoming a problem....the short interest report as of 2/15....will be wery wery interesting!!!!
glen....there are no shares traded today...less than 100k and the stock is up almost 2 points....versus all those options changing hands....something has to give and its the price of the stock
you can if you want them to...you have to sign up....but they cant do it automatically
that doesnt sound very high..what is regular rate... 1.5%?
so you have to pay 1.5% in order to borrow the stock....what would be a regular rate?
vegas....i like that....what type of rate are they assigning to the borrow?
mucho volume today!!!...tape reads well...my guess is the ramifications of the tender are yet to come....you can PUT off your concerns...but schtuff is eventually gonna happen...stay tuned space rangers!!!!
chill...dont worry about this guy....he's been good for us....because he woke up the sleeping dog.....and he only has one move he can make on the chess board at this point
big cat...i hear ya ...been with with ya....i think its about time we delivered this baby .to somebody who can care for it and bring out its true potential......think of how lonely SHERWIN must have felt on that beach in 1974....now thats some vision...he was only looking to trade stock from his beach blanket...just goes to show you how foolish the true geniuses are!!!
dueling analysts....fighting it out in the middle of the street...jeffries and boa/merrill are the two most high profile analysts idc has ever attracted....and they are on opposite sides...whoulda thunk....jeffries has always been known for their sharp elbows...merrill not so much....especially when it comes to analysts
vegas....im wondering if some of this option stuff is due to the convertibles....i saw that idcc mentioned they would look to buy the converts alongside the stock
point of interest....largest volume day leading up to tender was 1.17 myn on 2/14...closing price 72.94...live and learn.....i must say...ive witnessed stuff i never saw before.....how many companies have bought back 10% of their stock in one shot?
it was close to 30% of total shares outstanding that were sold....thats not a rebalancing
and bingo was his namo
what happened in the 4th qtr to cause institutions to sell 8.5myn shares?....i have a good idea...anybody want to venture a guess?
im not sure i trust this data....if this is the case...id say these boys missed out on a big move in the stock....wonder where all these shares went??
im flattered!!
vegas.... a trade like this is used for purpose of leverage.....think about it....you can control a million shares and generate a positive cash balance....but you still need to have a large marginable portfolio to back up the margin requirements of being a put seller ..which are substantial....its definitely a hedge fund type trade....if you're the dealer your main thing is the financing rates along with the time decay and the underlying volatility...and thats all baked into the spread between the current price of the stock ...and what was paid synthetically .my guess is the dealer is now clear or fully hedged.....most likely he had a working order....as it was done in pieces and at different strikes.... the risk now lies with the put seller...because he is long the stock...fancy shooting....thanks for pointing it out to the crowd
dave...im still using that line when im breaking chops
just wanted to be sure that you knew....those shares had to come from somewhere...if i was the trader at the options firm....my most direct hedge to to buy the shares from someone....there easily could have been a million share seller out there right before the tender
vegas....one thing....you cant create synthetic shares on an options trade....and not have it effect the market....by selling the deep in the money puts....that effectively buys the shares from the market.for the put seller...the calls are a minor part of the trade being deep out of the money..although the dealer is also short those calls....so the dealer taking the other side of the trade...is not going to stay short shares and calls of idcc just because somebody wanted to buy idcc stock....most likely the dealer will hedge by buying other idcc options and shares to hedge his short position in idcc.... the flow definitely finds its way to the market in one way or the other....i know how this stuff works...my son works for the aforementioned options firm as a sales trader