why is QQQQ almost ready for a turn?

or do you mean up?

apologies if you feel that way, I have basically been doing what you've been doing, but from a contrarian perspective....no, I didn't use all kind of charts and T/A, I basically followed the trend and stuck with it...sometimes analyzing and re-analyzing until you see what you want to see actually impairs your judgement and the real story is smacking you right in the face, but you refuse to belieive it b/c you are so busy trying to prove yourself right....I've contributed, gave up some nice LEAPS and some retail plays before the same store sales numbers, in fact Dress Barn is up over 10% in two days...so I'm not just here bashing you or anyone else...nor did I ever say I was better than anyone else, it was keithk who came on here belittling my efforts ...if anyone was saying "I'm better than you", it was him...whatever, hope you get your 5% correction soon.

what was that Homer Simpson quote about facts? I forget it, but it was pretty funny...

and re: apple, IMHO, I think your missing the boat if you truly believe it's an "ipod" story...it's much bigger...visit an Apple store sometime as part of your DD...incredible vide and always PACKED...the story is intact and developing..jmho...

won't waste any of my 15 posts a day posting here anymore, I'm long Marvel, but there's better opportunities right now.

and we all wonder why the stock is in the shitter....

want great management?

I'm heavily invested in Whole Food Market, despite the loftly PE. The ceo, John Mackey has his own blog on ther website:

http://www.wholefoodsmarket.com/blogs/jm/


read it if you have time, take a look at what the company stands for and where they are headed...not pumping the company, I believe in the mission.

I don't either, I have been pretty much singing the same tune since I started posting, others have called the top 5 or 6 times now and have thrown every reason out there why the market is going to go down "next week" and even threw in the towel at one point and posted they were closing all of their put positions and going long oly to reverse that stance two days later....and then reverse it back the next day. You can't wish the market up or down and for every bull there's a bear...I'm just along for the ride either way...

the market, more than ever, is a game of extremes..a ponzi scheme to some degree based on the split second availabilty of every press release, earnings revision, product announcement, global event etc.

thanks for the info...

yes, definitely not complaining, I'll take it as a nice supplement and hopefully they'll keep the medical perks until I'm ready to go...

lots of paid time off too...need to factor that into the equation also, for sanity purposes (financial aid in higher education)

you must have a really nice pension...I'm in a state pension system; I have 14 years in and 11 to go to retire with a lifetime medical and a pension I can collect 100% of at 55...I'll actually be here 25 years at 52, but the pension is reduced 1/4 of 1% per year for every year before 55....

the calculation takes your number of years divided by 60 x the average of your three final years salary...I'm only thinking 45,000 annually:(

Take a look at SBUX...


people are back to buying $7 cups of coffee...hmmm..higher SUV sales can't be far off...lol..gotta love this "spoiled rotten" country..

I bet alternative energy is taking it on the chin w/o even looking...two month drop in oil prices has everyone forgetting aboutthe future...what a shame..jmho..

look at the 10 year...
look at the huge drop in the prices paid indicator portion of today's "bad" news...lower inflation worries?

re: the numbers today, the market looks out 6-12 months, could they be pricing in a...dare I say...rate cut?

Inflation is now in check...if the economy shows signs of slowing too much now, the fed has the flexibilty to cut rates, something it DID NOT have two months ago with oil at $78 a barrel and inflation numbers beyond their "comfort zone"...

summer worries...hard landing with increasing inflation..

fall worries..hard landing...

how do you prevent or minimize a hard landing? You cut interest rates...if you can...and if you can, won't that spur some buyers back into the housing market? You'll always have some people out there willingto take a risk that they've "found" the bottom and jump back in...jmho...

From the same article Syn posted...contrarian view...Lutz is also buying AKAM...we read the same stuff syn..lol..it's the glass half full/half empty scenario again..

The fact that the Dow hit a record high is not a factor in our bullishness, and it could well be a cue for a brief sell-off, but it does reflect the fact that trends are up," says Timothy Lutts of Cabot Heritage in Salem, Mass.

Lutts believes that one of the best things the market's current rally has going for it is prevailing doubt on the part of individual investors, many of whom sat out the substantial run in stocks over the past two months.

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"What has yet to come, and we're confident it will, is the irrational enthusiasm of the individual investor," says Lutts. "We're very bullish on the next few months, partly because of the buying power we saw back after the bottom [in June], and partly because of the four-year presidential cycle."

Dan Sullivan, editor of The Chartist newsletter, is also optimistic that the Dow's push to record territory will help awaken individual investors and compel them to commit fresh funds to the market. "It's just one index, but it does attract attention," he says.

only because you're on the wrong side of the trade:)

syn,

he didn't say nail down a timeframe, the naz could be 5% higher before that...jmho..

btw..check his track record over the past 10 years...he even mentions today that the spike in oil today was due to OPEC concerns, please...what a media pundit...has he ever heard of shortcovering after a major move to the downside...

guy's a hack...he'll get his correction, but he certainly didn't nail a timeframe...

May/June was the same thing the other way...the trend was down with low volume "pullups"...happened just as fast as this ride up..

yep...

and every bear can oull up charts that can be countered by a bull with a different chart

and every "expert" market reader that issues a bearish stance in a newsletter can be countered with a bullish one...

I didn't come on here quoting McClellan's or Haggerty's adversaries, I came on here with one simple strategy....

the trend is your friend, and until that changes, you should be buying pullbacks, setting trailing stops and keying in on support and market volume. Not rocket science, no fancy analogs, charts and historical happenings...just the trend.

That trend has been UP since early August, regardless of what past history dictates, regardless of what the "talking heads" are saying..

I posted here that Naz would find support at 2225 and it did...right there...and immediately moved higher..."wishing" the market up or down based on overanalyzing will get you killed everytime...the market will pullback again...and will correct again, but M,cClellan was wrong, the oil barron was wrong with his Sept 14th pick...and maybe Haggarty is going to be wrong as this rally picks up steam, no one is right 100% of the time, no one....up or down, as retail investors we're only here for the ride....jmho..

How about housing?

seems as housing cools, investors will find a need to put their money to work elsewhere....and housing certainly is cooling. The DOW on the otherhand is only back to 2000 levels and lower than that inflation adjusted...the naz is a completely different story and was one of the biggest bubbles in history so it's completely irrelevant here as far as new highs are concerned.

naz needs some new leadership.

rcp..

do you feel the naz can breakout w/o semi participation?

Financials, big pharma and retail....

are leading this rally..

COH, DBRN, ARO

GS

MRK

Notice how...


since the market trades on techicals, it now completely ignores North korea and their nuclear threat..

If the trend was down, this little media stunt would have been good for a $3 rise in a crude and a $100 drop in the DOW...

go figure...

not sure who the bigger crooks are, the media or wall street..

Some LEAPS...for 2007..

I'm long the BA Jan08 $105 calls at $2.00 and the WFMI Jan08 $80 calls at $3.15...

Some LEAPS...for 2007..

I'm long the BA Jan08 calls at $2.00 and the WFMI Jan08 calls at $3.15...

Anyone notice the volume on the spikes?

on the NYSE ans Naz?

Compared to the low volume sell off of the past few days...

Also look like the naz successfully tested the 2225 support..

sorry, no charts keithk, I try to keep things as simple as possible and trade with the trends..

report out this morning states that holiday "big" ticket items are showing signs of having the strongest sales in 5 years...."hot" toys are ALREADY flying off the shelves at retailers..according to the retailers..

I agree this will come back to HAUNT the consumer and the eonomy, but I don't think it's going to be this season...gas prices dropping as fast as they have is having a BIG effect on consumer sentiment going into the holidays....an average to mild fall without any major artic outbreaks will reinforce that...

how many players lost a BOATLOAD of money betting on $100 oil and $15 natural gas due to the hurricane season that is now almost over and going out with whimper? That's all I heard this summer..oil to $100, wait until a hurricane enters the gulf....it's only July, hurricane season rally doesn't crank up until Aug/Sept..blablabla.

Everyone's buying I-macs:)

good points, my big worry is the loss of credibilty with the street...I remember they raised guidance earlier this year only to lower it again today...on top of the other BS, it may take this company awhile to earn trust again...

reminds me of my glamour stock Foundry Networks, that I still hold today and watched drop from $30 to $8, run from $8 to $18 over the last year and right back down to $10...now back up to $13...all over the place.....lots of rev misses and lowered guidance, but a strong balance sheet...

double whammy tho...

restatement is one thing, part of it was factored into the price...10% drop in revs is huge...that's missing by a mile...jmho...

what a POS....

This stock deserves to be delisted...

Looks more like an orderly consolidation to me...is this part of the pullback before lift off?

You're 0 for 2 on the "crooks" of Wall Street spin and it sounds like your making predictions based on emotion now....jmho, not bashing...but you said the same thing last week about Friday.

Oil back down despite Dr. Charles Nenner's prediction of a bottom on September 14...#'s weren't that bad this am...earnings warnings have been muted, technicals still point up...

Naz 2225 is support...

What I find hilarious....

is that market watch headlines are already predicting a down week next week...

and then you go and post a chart that states "might" be a bullish....but "could" be a bearish...so you use a chart to use the same logic....nice chart either way.


lol

oh and metalfillboy...

re: semi slowdown...remember, opinions are like a-holes...everyone has one...this guy has a diffeent outlook than your link, go figure...and time will tell...as always, it's best to do your own DD...


http://www.forbes.com/2006/09/07/semiconductors-0907markets03.html?partner=yahootix

point well taken...

but semi's don't encompass all of tech, new leaders emerge everyday (past goog etc)...

I'm currently long SMSI (11.40) TRID (17.30ish) WFR (36.80) and FDRY (10.82)....speaking of foundry, will telecom lead the NAZ to 2300-2350?? I also own AAPL at less than $35 and recently sold NVDA calls for a nifty profit...has the NAZ run out of steam short-term?

Tie will tell...

Upcoming earnings are going to mean a lot to this market and slowdowns are not democratic affairs. Economic weakness is very real, but its impact will vary from stock to stock, and sector to sector. For example, LEN guided lower this week, but after the bell last night, RIMM blew the doors off and gave positive forward guidance. The market has been saying for some time that tech should fair OK.

At this point, today's lack of huge volume is actually a plus for the bulls. It indicates no climactic, blow-off top has happened yet. This could change of course, but for now the market is saying, Pullback? yes. Top? no.

JMHO...

great post...

my feelings regarding the cycle low differ slightly...I feel we saw it in May/June...

since then, the market has advanced and I agree is overbought...but every pullback is met with buying and today's pullback was on very low volume.

Where from here?

As the market churns higher and higher, the eventual pullback, even if significant, would would have to be more and more extreme with each uptick to eclipse the May/June low...or even the July lows at this point. In other words, everyone was saying DOW 10,700 AND nAZ 1750 as 4yr cycle lows...then DOW 11,000 and naz 1900...now?

DOW 11,500 and naz 2200? who knows, but as the market churns higher absent of any really negative catalyst..the lows become higher....and all those people waiting for NAZ 1750...NAZ 1900...NAZ?...will have to cover at some point. And all those waiting to enter (time the market) based on all the TA coverage of 4 year cycle lows will at some point realize that it may not happen (ALREADY DID) and also pile on.

JMHO....and of course all this is out the window with some catstrophis terrorist event or legitimate nuclear threat by Iran.

SYN..

you suggeted the other day that the crooks on wall street would run the DOW to an all-time high on Friday for the greatest amount of media exposure over the weekend...looks like that isn't happening and the market is pulling back.

Does that change you sentiment for next week or do you see further declines in the overall market?

And to think....

all you had to do was invest in GM this year for incredible returns:)

I think the market needs a healthy pullback( not read correction), but the uptrend is intact...

an excuse for a pullback? Earnings warning season...which, as usual, will be blown out of proportion by the media..they Loooove to spin things..

I still feel we'll see double digit earnings growth (again) for the s&p and with undervalued large caps leading the way (more weight on the dow), the uptrend will grab investors attention....investors who may be waiting on the sidelines for the big Sept/Oct correction.

The trend is always your friend...

The trend since early August has been higher, regardless of what past years say about AUG/SEPT...there are ALWAYS exceptions...

the trend in September has been higher REGARDLESS of what past history says about how moths that start higher end...

if you're too busy looking at past history and analogs, sometimes you miss the obvious...it's overanalyzing...weather people do it all the time too with their silly 90 day forecasts...

You're falling for the same old bear trap that constantly gets repeated over and over.

The market goes down not because of rising rates. The market goes down because of declining corporate profits. There is no sign of that right now.

If housing takes a dive, and I think it will too, then maybe down the road that will happen because of consumers getting killed by forclosers.

But until that happens, you can forget about any major market decline other than the cycle stuff I talked about in front of us between around late Aug through Oct.

Look at this stuff in a different way ----

Money needs to be invested. There's tons of it out there. People have basically three assets to invest in -

1)Stocks
2)Bonds
3)Real Estate

(commodities aren't considered a true viable investment because of their risk profile)

Bonds are in and have been in a bubble (low rates = high prices)

Real Estate - Well, we all know the picture there. Real Estate has entered its downphase that will most likely last about 10 years or more, just like all previous downcycles. But right now, it's still WAY over priced.

That leaves stocks. Are stocks a good investment right now? Well, in 2000, the S&P traded around 1500 and change and traded at a combined PE of 32. Right now, it's trading at 1240 or so and has a FORWARD PE of 14!

That means that stocks keep getting compressed in value as the prices go down or flatline as the companies keep making more and more money (growing).

This 'coil' in the market is going to explode one day. Probably come Nov will be the beginning of one of the largest stock bubbles in history (probably larger than '98 through '2000.

Being a bear has always been a loser position because the overall trend is always up due to the ever growing population. Market declines are simple anomolies that are just market excess washout events.

There's nothing wrong with wanting to short the market here and there, just be nimble.

CNBC is a media outlet...they'll have a different guest on every hour that says something that contradicts the prior guest...if you're relying on that information to trade stocks/option, I've lost a lot of respect for you...

you've been calling the top and a major correction every week for 5 weeks now using analogs from past history...even a broken clock is right twice a day...not bashing, but do your TA, gather the evidence...and stick to your guns.

Eventually the market will pull back, it's long in the tooth...but for every CNBC pundit out there screaming "correction", there's another saying that "on an inflation adjusted basis, DOW 11,750 in 2000 is DOW 13,000 today.

The market doesn't go straight up...the market has been going straight up....the market needs to pull back...

jmho

not today...market too strong, again, every sell-off was met with buying....

eventually, the market HAS to pull-back, no?

maybe after new highs *shrug*