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New Job Posting - Director of Simulations – Orlando
https://web.archive.org/web/20211229193941/https://www.virtra.com/job/director-of-simulations-orlando/
"The perfect candidate will use their ability to set up, support and maintain a new office location in the research park area"
"We provide high quality, high value, simulation solutions to customers in the Private, Law Enforcement, Aerospace & Defense industry. We are widely recognized for innovative technical products."
https://www.virtra.com/simulator/law-enforcement-v-100/ & https://www.gsaadvantage.gov/advantage/ws/search/advantage_search?q=0:0virtra&s=7&db=0
Don't think an individual portable sim is going to be the money maker. A lot of them with everything that comes along with them, including the larger simulators.
Depends on discounts and pricing, right? Would expect there to be some discount given at this volume. And Bob on last cc shied away from guiding towards bouncing back to 60% margins.
But in general, I tried being conservative. Assuming they literally buy 200+ simulators at close to regular price, they buy warranties, they all need recoil kits and threatfire devices, and some need custom content, I could easily see a world where we pull in $30-40m over 5 years.
Then assuming the entire country has VirTra simulators set up in 2027, it's not unlikely that they continue to use them and VirTra continues to upgrade or sell new equipment for a long time, like teeroy mentioned.
VirTra awarded Canada Simulation Training contract
Links
Award Link: https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/award-notice/PW-QT-006-27974-001
RFP Doc & Requirements Link: https://buyandsell.gc.ca/cds/public/2021/03/22/1cae00626dea353376e8d5844b55c190/ABES.PROD.PW__QT.B006.E27974.EBSU009.PDF
RFP Website Link: https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/tender-notice/PW-QT-006-27974
TL;DR
This is a 3-5 year contract for (as per the RFP requirements) 100-200+ portable & stationary simulators, 500+ recoil kits, threat-fire devices, and likely warranties as well. My estimated value for this quantity of items is in the $20M+ range. There are currently no details on the actual contract value nor delivery dates at this time.
Relevant Quotes
From https://buyandsell.gc.ca/cds/public/2020/12/23/93861c24fff927d1c8e584c311125a27/ABES.PROD.PW__QT.B006.E27974.EBSU003.PDF:
"As a result of the number of potential training sites, coupled with the
modes of transportation needed to move portable simulation training
units from one location to another, there is a need for both the portable units (i.e., hundreds for use in smaller remote locations), to needing permanent simulation systems (i.e., ~one hundred for larger detachments, urban centers, etc.)."
??"1. Q: Is there a rough estimated quantity on the amount of weapon kits needed? A: Approximately 560 (pistols and carbine) over the first 3 years. No minimum order guaranteed."
"9. Q: What will be the minimum number of portable or fixed systems that may be required upon award. A: Approximately 150 between fixed and portable. No minimum order guaranteed."
"2.1.8 Electric Shock Haptic Feedback. This Mandatory Requirement is also subject to point-rating. See Point-Rated Requirements"
Two interesting new products entering the market.
1) Decision Points: https://www.policedefense.org/decisionpoints/
One more possible 2022-Interregional Directorate of Prison Services in Paris
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/julien-formisano-a07047157_gendarmerie-police-securite-activity-6875442297467633664-V67V
FTPA France possible 2022 order
https://www.instagram.com/p/CXT_xM1MAgK/
[award] 11/18 $210k - TECHNICAL COLLEGE SYSTEM OF GEORGIA
https://ssl.doas.state.ga.us/gpr/eventDetails?eSourceNumber=2241500SN-SoleSource-41500-2377&sourceSystemType=doas
I don't see a delivery date.
Georgia Department of Corrections award award cancelled on 11/23...
due to a successful protest by VirTra
RFP:https://ssl.doas.state.ga.us/gpr/eventDetails?eSourceNumber=46700-GDC0000979&sourceSystemType=ps
Cancellation:
1 simulator RFP - SAVANNAH/CHATHAM COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOL SYSTEM
https://ssl.doas.state.ga.us/gpr/eventDetails?eSourceNumber=2262600RFP22-21&sourceSystemType=doas
Requirement for 300degree simulator, Electronic feedback system, must be simulator and not headset, tetherless recoil system. Seems very well suited for VirTra.
Award set for Feb 2022 board meeting with delivery and installation by Feb 28, 2022.
The other talk to watch is this one with Director of STE CFT, William Glaser
(there's also more mention of SiVT @ ~31:00
“Now that we have the brighter systems, PM STE will start to address the other battle drills. We had a technology issue, it was the brightness, we couldn’t do it outdoors but now that we’ve got that, I think we’re going to get there.”
This was my take.
Curious if what was discussed today allays some of the fear that IVAS wouldn’t hit their deadlines for testing and LRIP in 2022. Presenter positively touched on all of the issues I recall hearing about (FoV, parallax, brightness, and moisture) from the delay PRs
— SharpChiCity (@SharpChiCity) December 2, 2021
not really related, but last I saw Meggitt was the program of record in Canada https://www.meggitt.com/news/25m-training-systems-contract-with-canadian-armed-forces/ & https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/contract-history/W8486-149965-001-QF-13?order=award_date&sort=desc#award_date.
Next time I talk with CEO, i'll ask him what the plans are for the future. It seems like to me that there are a lot of opportunities for recoil kits integrated into a bigger training system as opposed to screens (VirTra sims) or COTS headsets (InVeris DTS). Think IVAS, RTES (UK), or MILES here in the US. Being able to turn a real weapon into a "controller" would be a good selling point especially as ammo prices have gone up. Integrating this into a marksmanship simulator, then, is a great cross sell.
Unfortunately, I don't think any of these recoil kit opportunities have been talked about yet. Hopefully a buyout doesn't happen until these opportunities, which hopefully VirTra wins, land and start generating significant revenues and net income. I imagine Bob knows what he's sitting on and won't sell out early after 20+ years!
How do you tie Nautilus to that 1.1m order? I’ve never been able to determine if it’s them or Mondial Groupe.
Q1 ‘21 was when 1.08 international simulators were delivered (from 10q) and @virtra_france started tweeting images of new sims in January then began giving lots of demos starting in April.
Comparatively, Nautilus began tweeting about working with VirTra in late 2019
implying a relationship was formed prior to the March ‘20 order. Nor have I seen anything of theirs that makes me think that Nautilus has lots of VST pro sims whereas Mondial doesLooking forward to working alongside @bpcmedia Creative Digital Media tomorrow. Find out why by following this story. ..#simulation #training #definingfuturetechnology pic.twitter.com/73JJV7FgTq
— Nautilus International (@Nautilus_Intl) December 11, 2019
Interesting that the video was just posted now. (Additionally, worth calling out that nautilus and VirTra have been partnered for quite some time. Maybe 2020 or 2019. And I don’t have a link on hand, but I believe Virtra already provides simulators for MoD)
Original notice of future tender went out in Nov ‘20. Tender released and due in April ‘21.
http://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W14/748487163
Some interesting quotes:
RTES is a training system that does not require blank ammunition. Initial procurement and support of five or more units. Each unit is expected to contain: — 60 x electronic blank systems, — 60 x lasers, — 60 x sensor suites, — 3 x AAR systems
Value
£7M-£79M
ten (10) years consisting of an initial five (5) year contract duration for the equipment delivery and Contractor Logistic Support (CLS), and a further five (5) x one (1) year contract options. The Authority reserves the right to change and take the option years as a combination, or as one (1) year increments.
The RTES requirement will support training exercises conducted at training locations initially in the UK, with potential for deployment overseas. The capability is intended for use as widely as possible (the service may be provided in a variety of environments and climates) without the need for fixed infrastructure. The RTES capability initially intends to deliver equipment units of a training system (quantity to be determined) through live instrumented training. The RTES system will require After Action Review capability which is anticipated to be delivered by the user.
RTES will enhance the delivery of Battlecraft Syllabus (BCS) training through the realistic representation of personal weapon operation and effects, increased ability for Force Elements to access measurement and evaluation systems, and a reduced dependency on blank ammunition and training estate resources. RTES will bring a capability into service from 2022.
Wonder if it’s only for British
First blush, this is a Live training system? Need to go reread those RFPs. I thought LTS was doing laserless, though.
.... but they could just get a loan :)
---
in reference to requirements, VirTra obviously is the only company to meet all of them, especially when you consider they want electronic feedback devices (threatfire) and drop in recoil kits with jamming capabilities. There is no other competition in this space. As TEEROY said, it'll all come down to price as from the technical merit perspective, VirTra should be the clear winner. The biggest positive to me is that somewhere in these docs (maybe Q&A), Canada mentioned that they want the vendor must meet all of these requirements. So maybe they'll be the only vendor in the running at the end of the day.
FWIW, bob mentioned at some point that an agency ( military, international, local, i don't remember) is no longer happy with their current supplier for simulation training. Maybe it applied to this. I'll see if i can find the quote and follow up
i do not believe so. Ti Training is a competitor offering similar services to VirTra. My take on the "interested parties" list is that not all submissions are public.
That said, I reached out to someone at Ti Training and they mentioned that the company never heard back from the Canadian government after their submission. So I don't think they are going to win the award.
https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/tender-notice/PW-QT-006-27974
I checked in with the PoC on this tender via email and she replied that no award has been provided (as of early November). Reading the requirements docs will help you understand the potential dollar value scope. I might be misremembering now since it's been a while since I read it, but I recall reading the need for "hundreds of portable simulators" and the initial order being quite large.
I don't really understand why a decision has not been made by now for a tender that closed in April, but hopefully we hear something soon.
They have 21.8m in cash. They raised 18m. So without that raise, they'd have a $3.8m buffer.
Imagine for a second that they're selling $20M/yr+ in recoil kits for SiVT. Where do you think they'd get the money for that if they only have $4m in cash? What if they win that $20m+ contract with Canada where they need to supply $10m of simulator and recoil kits relatively quickly... They don't have the cash to do both and as of May, it was not out of the question that they were going to have to do both.
there's commentary in the recent conference call about it. It is what it is. Good business practice, hopefully any usage of it is because it's beneficial for shareholders long term (e.g. allows for growth which is greater than dilution)
$1.37m Middle East order
$1.7m europe (spain) order
$2.54m US federal/gov orders
====
$5.6m bookings from this alone
which leaves $5.4m police + commercial + other bookings. The last few quarters have been ~$4m/quarter in this segment.
Need to look closer, but this is a good sign about orders picking up!
i think it's a mix as to how people responded to IVAS. Some sold out completely, others sold and bought back in (me), others never sold because they missed the drop. My perspective is that they are still interested in the name, but until there are forecastable catalysts (IVAS, large int'l contracts, etc), people are less inclined to sit tight on a large position. There's too many other stocks being talked about with more near term upside.
That said, most people don't disclose their holdings. This is only my perspective based on some of the people that have.
To follow up on Fish's comment, if earnings are good, there is probably enough money on the sidelines to move the stock up a bit, but ultimately storytrading people invest based mostly on fundamentals and catalysts. If Bob doesn't give any clarity into upcoming revenue growth, then i doubt anybody buys. If he talks about winning the $20m Canada contract which will be delievered in Q1, then sure, people on storytrading and off of it will buy in
I don't see any lumpy deliveries that make me think we'll be much higher than this revenue number. The PPP forgiveness will hit in Q3 (which will be an added $0.12c) and therefore I expect we'll see $0.15+ EPS numbers. I do expect bookings to be ~$8m for the quarter and therefore a growth in backlog.
Will be curious to hear what updates they give. Hopefully we get more details than a rehash of what we already know transpired in the quarter regarding IVAS delay and international deals.
Lastly, caveat to the above that there's still the overhanging deferred revenue which could drop to revenue at any time.
"Savannah-Chatham County Public School System" RFP
https://ssl.doas.state.ga.us/gpr/eventDetails?eSourceNumber=2262600RFP22-21&sourceSystemType=doas
"1 300 degree, 5 screen simulator with electronic feedback devices" are being sourced with an award date in Feb '22. Georgia is already a strong buyer of VirTra systems both at a police level as well as likely the Georgia Department of Corrections who had an RFP earlier this year.
impressive searching!
On the other side of the coin, one could argue that if they were ramping up for IVAS and then in July/August they learned that the program was going to be a year delayed. Now they've stopped hiring. Headcount is because hiring might be difficult. Some of the current job postings have been posted for quite some time and others are from Sept/Oct.
No way to really know, but stating a different perspective. Obviously growth from 90 -> 118 is still significant
18 open headcount.
Interestingly a headcount of 118 means they have net dropped 1 employee since last earnings call when they had 119 employees.
From what I have deduced from looking at bookings and backing out military, international, and federal orders, VirTra's bookings from US Police is growing at something like 18% y/y.
I'm glad to see these orders continue to come in, especially from grant funding. My current believe is that we're going to need more grant funding to see this growth rate accelerate much faster than its current pace.
Good find! Since it's CBP, my take was that this notice is for construction of the facility itself. And once built, it's going to house a virtra simulator. So a VirTra-contianing training facility.
3000 sqft doesn't seem like a large building, and i imagine at this point, it's probably 12mo away if they haven't broken ground yet. I'm not expecting much $$$ from this.
I don't disagree.
But I was hoping we'd at least see in the senate bill "$42,000,000 but no restrictions on needing to ban chokeholds, etc."
I also agree that there may have been some other parts that could be used for simulation training, but I didn't see anything that would match this quantity.
As Bob would say, "I'm cautiously optimistic."
I'm not too familiar with appropriations, but my thought is there will be some further discussion between the house and senate committees to come to an agreement on these differences, but who knows where they end up. Will have to react to news as it comes out.
Senate's Justice Department's Appropriations bill - No de-escalation training
https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/CJSFY2022_Final.PDF
the writing was kind of on the wall a few weeks ago saying talks fell through, but officially there is no money in the Senate's appropriation bill being directly applied to de-escalation, implicit bias, nor use of force training. If you recall, the House of Representative's proposal from July called for $42m specifically for these types of training: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4505/text?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22hr+4505%22%5D%7D&r=1&s=1
My guess is the competition is moving towards VR because VirTra is years ahead of them in screens and content. Is VR the future? Everybody says so, but then articles like this come out (https://www.janes.com/defence-news/c4isr-command-tech/latest/ausa-2021-us-army-pauses-ivas-programme-fielding-on-hold) and you're left wondering, is it really ready? My position is not that they should keep doing screens, just that the company has taken a stance on their product and why it's differentiated from the competition and their VR products. CEO has a long history with VR, so I trust that when he's comfortable with the tech being good enough, he will add that to the product line. Highly suggest reaching out to the company or IR and asking them directly!
Also on slide 12, it states "STEP –potential to expand to all 18,000 U.S. agencies." STEP can get as low as ~$10k/yr which is cheaper than most competitive products as far as i'm aware.
Appreciate the conversation and differing view points!
There are lots of posts/white papers on virtra.com with their reasoning.
As i've seen other simulations, I come back to videos like this. see the difference in the user's reaction in the
Apex simulator (@1min mark) :
I'm assuming you're not lumping me into your "storytrading guys are hilarious" comment :)
The only change to the VTSI story now is that IVAS related revenues are likely delayed. We are only going off one quote, so it's not perfect info, but we were supposed to have IOC now but instead more testing is set for January and IOC sometime after that. If one thought we were going to have $20M+ revenue in 2022, that's likely no longer going to happen. It could, but there's more risk, and therefore a lower share price. I don't see anything wrong with price action today.
My favorite part of this story is that all of the research is out there if one spends the work doing the research. I made money on VTSI today.