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Charts - This is now completing the same formation (head and shoulders) that characterized the market action around June of '21 and Jan of '22 before ENZC returned to downtrend.
Head and Shoulders is a bearish reversal pattern. Relating to ENZC specifically, the pattern has shown itself during ENZC's temporary market corrections every 4-6 months for two years. Barring any catalyzing news, the October/November '22 market cycle is looking par for the course.
I've also drawn a triangle using recent highs and lows. There's a chance trading is trapped in this range for a few more days as investors wait to see how the company handles its filings due. The triangle apex is 11/21, but we should see candles breaking before then as a critical mass of investors realign their expectations to company performance.
News can redirect a chart. Will we get news?
Included the 50 day moving average line to show where this could go next, if it breaks down.
Well, can't take IPF Immune for it, sadly! Haha
Charts are very mixed. We've now got the right shoulder of a big head and shoulders reversal pattern in play (bearish), so it's a good last chance for bears to claw back control before a move higher - though they're running out of time.
Still think there's a lot of hype for this week / next week, and so far we're forming a bowl toward the highs on 10/19 (bullish). The chart has some good potential if prices can hold at these levels.
I'm very skeptical about news, but always hoping. The ducks look to be in a row, but we as retail can't will the company to act! Gotta wait and see.
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Saw this too late to guess!
My guess is more of the same tomorrow to close the week near .0525
I do think the election is influencing market volume. ENZC ought to wait until after the election to drop news, else it could get buried under other events.
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31% of 30 day average volume, so far today.
Today: 2,177,478
30 day average: 7,045,962
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Right on, and good info.
I probably could have picked a less emotionally charged example. What I was trying to show is that retail currently seems burnt out on all the missed expectations, even given facts about why things like the audit are delayed.
ENZC's performance this year has been frustrating, missing the timelines they projected at the end of 2021 and during the interview in January. Audit and uplist, ITV-1 for Africa, IPF Immune in stores and e-shops, even the new website haven't happened on schedule. Along with Tom Nelson into July '22, the company has a track record of not communicating about setbacks, blocking people asking questions on twitter, being late on its filings, and all of that slowly chips away at its reputation.
Makes sense that some retail could be waiting to see ENZC follow through somewhere before risking more money. (At least the ones not looking bigger picture with this.) Things could get interesting if big news finally drops and all those investors suddenly want back in!
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Nice post.
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ENZC has talked a big game and systemically underdelivered. I won't rehash the list, because we all know what's on it. I think many retail traders are waiting for an obvious loading zone, or any one promised milestone to finally hit, before they hop back on.
Saw this on stocktwits earlier and it summarizes the sentiment pretty well, in my opinion. Read past the hyperbole and look at the gist of his argument.
$ENZC This company has lost it's credibility with MOST investors due to constant pushed back milestones, can't complete an audit and want to blame it on every auditing firm in the world instead of what the truth is, continuing lies and misconceptions, nobody trusts this anymore....it is 100% DEAD MONEY and with the bloated share structure people will have PLENTY OF TIME to get back in IF any REAL NEWS ever comes out. (source)
MAGA, finally circling back to your question. I'm hoping this will actually trade sideways this week and maybe close somewhere near .0525
When I last shared charts I was watching a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern emerging on the daily, and thinking bulls would make another attempt and fizzle at the gap near .065 to form a well defined right shoulder.
We did ultimately get a H&S pattern, but the right shoulder was almost nonexistent since bulls were apparently out of steam. The market then retraced as bears took over, as the pattern usually suggests.
Hourly chart (intraweek)
I'm watching for reversal patterns in particular to help validate if the market is behaving like in prior runs; ie whether ENZC is still likely to be in long term downtrend barring any news; ie will "Groundhog Day" likely continue. Head & Shoulders is most common, but ENZC has also seen a lot of the "Cat's Ears" pattern.
Some reversal patterns have well defined price targets that might further help gauge where this may be headed next, if price takes a downturn. All of these are only measurements - they don't drive any action on their own, except for technical traders who prioritize charts over DD.
What's different about this run? For that, I turn to the weekly chart..
First, this is the first time since January '21 that ENZC actually had a run that touched the weekly bollinger band top edge.
Also a difference, the 50 week moving average line is approaching the 200, and a crossing to the downside would be a "Death Cross" (the opposite of a "Golden Cross".) Death Cross is very bearish. The current price range would be a reasonable place for the market to push back against the last two years of sustained price weakness, even if just temporarily.
Also a difference, weekly RSI got closer than it's been in years to "oversold", and on the rebound it slightly outperformed its trajectory from previous runs. It's a subtle thing, but also an important one. Now there's a chance RSI might reflect upward off that pink line in the chart below.
Weekly chart (intraweek), omitted bollinger bands for clarity.
Back to reversal patterns, now I'm seeing a much bigger Head & Shoulders appearing, but currently missing a right shoulder. If trading forms that pattern during this week and the next, it might actually be a good thing:
- The longer ENZC trades mostly sideways, the more time it buys us into November when catalyzing news may drop.
- The slow drift upward suggests we may be seeing the beginnings of a bullish pennant (bullish continuation pattern)
- Price may indeed revisit that earlier gap area around .065 to form the right shoulder of the head and shoulders. That'd be a nice short term push.
- If we trade sideways from there and bears can't take over, the technical setup will be favorable for more upward movement.
Here's an illustration of all that:
Hourly chart (intraday)
And what a bearish case might look like (assuming bulls don't fizzle early like in that earlier H&S):
Unrelated, I've seen a few people wondering if ENZC could have an explosion in PPS without a prior jump in volume. I think the answer is yes, but with a caveat.
There don't seem to be millions of real shares up for sale at these levels. I think it's mostly just shorted ghost shares! However, with this ticker, there are about three billion chances to take profit during a strong run, so that should stifle any runs back to the old high unless the news is shockingly good. Every sell order is a chance for MMs to split up sells and target the bid. Short term pop, but bloated don't fly.
GLTA
I'll get back to you on it. Was up all night and have to crash for a few hours. There's some interesting differences on the charts compared to prior runs so it's better to look at it fresh.
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Looks like they just waited a few minutes!
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afaik = "as far as I know"
I was pointing out that ENZC went from being "on track" for Africa by end of March early April, to finally being "in progress" on animal toxicology phase 1 in late August, to announcing "planning" for the Repeat Dose toxicity study in the 10/5 PR. Hopefully there are no more delays, since they've said all the toxicity studies must be finished before beginning the ITV-1 trials in Africa.
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ITV-1 in Africa was supposed to happen in late March or early April. That morphed into "as soon as possible" in the August 22 PR. Now they're saying Africa can't even begin until all toxicology studies are completed.
Do we know if they have actually started the repeat dose toxicity study? The 10/5 PR only says they're "planning" it.
The ITV-1 therapeutic has succeeded in the clinical investigation earlier, and the Company is planning additional trials [...]
[...] the ITV-1 therapeutic will be provided to the Central and Eastern regions of Africa once all toxicology study phases are completed.
ENZC PR from 10/5
A quick look and I spotted five posts about profit taking (as in, people here taking profits) during the run last week. Easy to find, if finding was the goal. :P Traders made good money! (And yknow what, I didn't see any posts insisting this was a scam headed back to the trips either! Weird.)
The thought that people wouldn't celebrate during a run is one of the most absurd things I've ever heard! Comedy gold!
Anyway, posts about other people or their reasons for posting on the board are against the rules. I suggest we stay on topic and talk about ENZC!
Got any new DD on these lawsuits?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/manage_msg.asp?message_id=170297001
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You should see 'em while reviewing the week!
I'm happy for the bounce! I picked up some free shares to add to my core. As people here discussed, this cycle has been repeating every 4-6 months and timing the market corrections can be profitable.
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Welcome back! Several people posted about selling into this run. For those who bought low, it was a great time to take profits and pick up free shares!
Of course there was celebrating as it trended up, just like there's gloom when it trends down. The cycle continues!
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It's been flaking out / coming soon since at least July.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169479141
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I haven't been following closely either, but it looks to me "Enzolytics Inc v. Nevada Agency" is still ongoing.
Latest I see is this August 11 2022 tweet from King Of Prussia:
$ENZC The Enzolytics v. Savov case in the Delaware Chancery Court has been reassigned to a new Chancellor. No explanation was given but I do see that a Chancellor retired and he was handling lots of high profile cases so that may have caused a big shift in caseloads for everyone.
$ENZC The Enzolytics v. Savov case in the Delaware Chancery Court has been reassigned to a new Chancellor. No explanation was given but I do see that a Chancellor retired and he was handling lots of high profile cases so that may have caused a big shift in caseloads for everyone.
— King of Prussia (@ImKingofPrussia) August 11, 2022
There's a head and shoulders reversal pattern emerging on the daily, easier to see it on the hourly. Just missing its right shoulder. There was also a gap on the daily around .065, and though that's already had some filling I expect that's where we're headed next. Watch to see if bulls can push this higher or if the run is about to fizzle.
Hourly chart, dark blue is 200 hour moving average. Gray stripes are extended hours trading.
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What indicator are you seeing on the daily?
If you are a charter you see that the candle is about to break through again on a very important indicator.
It went a little higher than I expected, but my price guess was based on eyeballing the bollinger band and moving averages on the weekly chart compared to the last few big runs. FYI the 50 week moving average is currently near .074 and 200 week is near .067, and the current candle is currently wicking at the 200. You can see some extra annotations on the chart below.
It's all just a guess, and while it's hopefully informed by accurate TA, my charting doesn't take into account changes in sentiment or company fundamentals. Which certainly play a role!
Intraweek weekly (this week's candle hasn't closed yet!) Bollinger omitted for clarity.
If it's following the 4 month pattern noted here, IMO this run's just about over and price will soon be flirting with mid .04's again as sellers regain control. But does the past carry any weight? Not if something's fundamentally different this time. (And there's some indications ENZC has turned an important corner in its business since the last run.)
If there's lots of shares to dump, MMs might let the market breathe sometimes to foster interest and encourage retail to keep adding money. Volume analysis supports the idea somebody's been gently unloading all the way up and sold off another few tens of millions for their client at better prices than they got last month. I'd be surprised if MMs crash this tomorrow, and instead think they'll let it trade choppy to give more time to dump shares, before closing the week around .066 or .073 (important moving average cutoffs on the weekly chart). Biggest volume would come in when bulls fail the next rally, then this could dip hard in a week or so when buyers find themselves exhausted.
Admittedly, this run's been a little different than the past few, and in a good way. Check out the chart below and look at how past runs have behaved around the bollinger bands and 200 day moving average. So far this run's been well outside the bollinger with some spicier upward pressure. Wish we'd see big news from ENZC, but given the past history of these regularly spaced market corrections, it's possible this particular run isn't connected to ENZC's PR timeline at all.
Here's hoping something's different this time and this breaks decisively higher!
Daily chart, dark blue is 200 day moving average, dashed pink and light blue are bollinger bands.
It's definitely up in the last few days and PPS is trending up. But the scenario I'm hearing proposed is that many of the big fish were selling off (do they not believe in the company? or is securing profits now more important than holding for bigger profits later?) and you can compare the volume on a chart that spans several years and see it steadily diminishing. (No new big fish loading yet at these prices?) Kind of a head scratcher.
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I stickied it, good food for thought!
We can see the charts bowling out which supports the idea there are fewer big fish still unloading shares. Big fish selling say a billion shares is also a viable explanation for what MAGA has tracked for us with the MMs working together to sell so many shares for so long. (With say a billion shares to unload, perhaps they'd coordinate the drops with one another to keep from crushing this.)
In your analysis, don't forget Livingston had restrictions on how many shares it could keep. Also don't forget to consider the volume in and after October 2020 as ENZC had some nice pops and then the big run - big fish with shares surely would have sold many then. The 3/16/22 disclosure lists share issuances; it tells us nothing about whether people held or sold or rebought after they received shares. (Except for the increasing float.)
The reorganization and housecleaning stuff is interesting, it doesn't have immediate payoff in PPS so why would ENZC go to the trouble if they were running a P&D scam or not looking to be around long term. I personally don't think the selling is done yet, because I haven't noticed a noteworthy volume uptick or clear loading zone yet. I also think whopper news or a news cascade that sends this skyward to old highs is unlikely. But very excited to see what happens in the months ahead!
Nice post!
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Nice week for ENZC!
I'm still jet lagged from a recent work thing, but I'll try my best to show a couple charts real quick!
For the last couple years ENZC has been trading in a cycle that repeats approximately every four months. Prices slowly drift down until RSI shows oversold, then the market rebounds up with slightly higher volume, with the highest volume coming in just before the end of the run.
On the chart below you can see (part of) the rhythm. We were a little overdue for this latest cycle for whatever reason. Notice the RSI reaches oversold and MACD crosses over into green a few days before the next pop.
Daily chart. Dark blue is 200 day moving average.
Study where RSI typically peaks, how the end of each run has behaved relative to the 200 period moving average, where the highest volume hits, and how many bright green ticks we've seen on MACD for each run before MACD cools and goes red again.
Volume is still very low compared to the earlier runs. There's lots of room between today's close and the 200 day moving average. RSI is as high as a couple of the other runs, but sometimes it's risen higher into overbought territory too. MACD already has nearly as many green ticks as it has in previous runs, but no tall ones yet.
Incidentally, today's candle resembles a Shooting Star (tall upper wick. See explanation here) which is usually seen as bearish; but today's candle is also green, so it's a mixed signal.
This week's run coincided with a FINRA short interest settlement date and those dates have been meaningful in the cliff drops MAGA_PATRIOT has helped us track during these two years.
There was also an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern in play. Today's trading hit the profit target for that pattern. That doesn't imply the run is over, just that an ideal profit target for trading that pattern was in fact achieved. (And sure enough, lots of people took profit there.)
4h chart. Dark blue is 200 period moving average.
Will be exciting to see what happens Monday and through next week.
From what I'm seeing here, a dime by end of month is possible, but maybe overoptimistic. Depends if the overall market trends hotter and how aggressive MMs are about driving this down again. A brief pop to around seven and a quarter and then a new downtrend is my guess.
ENZC could drop news as well and add fuel to the fire, but keep in mind all the news they've dropped so far hasn't dramatically altered this cycle. If they can impress us with something huge, this cycle can certainly be broken.
Would love to hear your thoughts. Have a happy weekend!
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Haha, sorry if it's clear as mud! XD I'm massively jet lagged from a work thing. GLTY
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MM's have shown repeatedly they can crush this whenever they want. I wouldn't count on retail having much sway unless retail gets a major reason to bring bigger money.
Just spotted your edits! Yes, I hope there is a measured strategy to ENZC holding cards so close. Right now the NDAs are not a mark in their favor, since they've yet to deliver on any of the stuff they've talked about, and consistently missed the projections they've given.
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Great call on today's close. From a charting perspective, here's some notes:
(see chart below)
Yesterday's engulfing green candle coincided with:
- the recent MACD crossover
- the crossover of the 9 day moving average (MA) with the 20 day.
Notice how the 9 day MA has been stuck under the 20 for a looong time. Often there's a pop or drop nearby a moving average crossover, especially the shorter ones which have less lag. RSI has also been oversold for an extended period, so we were overdue for a market correction as bulls retest resistance levels.
Bollinger bands are shown here as bold blue (midline) and dashed pink (bands). Yesterday's candle escaped the bollinger top band which is a bullish signal. Usually bears answer the next day, and there'll be a red candle as they deny the breakout. Then if trading is still near breakout level (ie bears are too weak), the breakout happens next. (In rare cases there are two sessions of flat trading in between.)
Today's candle stayed green and above the bollinger band, but trapped under the 50 MA. It resembles a "hanging man" candle with a long shadow showing bears made a strong attempt to pull this back but were (temporarily?) denied. Due to the long wick, today's candle suggests bulls may lose control of the market next session. The fact it's a green candle makes a Friday rally hopeful.
https://www.ig.com/us/trading-strategies/16-candlestick-patterns-every-trader-should-know-180615
Agreed, good news from Africa could make this pop. Really, any of ENZC's catalysts hitting now could send it.
Even without news, charts still look supportive for a bigger uptrend. If we get another strong day people might feel they've missed the bottom and help chase it higher.
I'm a little leery that whoever was selling so hard last month is just letting the market breathe for a week or two before continuing the push downward. I guess we'll see!
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Cautious optimism here since it's rare this holds its gains. And because this is moving on low volume with no news. But nice to see some green days finally. :)
(Yes, today was red. Still held yesterday's gain nicely.)
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I see Form 25 filings on 9/26 and 10/3. First is for Class A Common Stock, second is Class A Warrants. Class B Common are derivatives of Class A.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/foxo/sec-filings
So I guess they're looking to delist.
Disclaimer: Being a fox is coincidence. I'm not affiliated with $FOXO in any way. ;)
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Good food for thought in here, thanks.
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I Fear in no Uncertain terms there's Doubt from some about whether ENZC will succeed.
Truth needs no hyperbole. We can list where ENZC has delivered and underdelivered (with links and support), and today, those are facts. The future and how ENZC fits in it, is speculation until it happens.
The past, ie Reputation, matters! It's how ENZC might lose its credibility and disappear by repeating old errors; or become more credible as it overcomes technical, market and internal barriers to work with industry leaders like Samsung, GenScript and Twist in spite of its problems.
Here's to the investors looking for better weeks ahead. :) GLTA
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Awesome DD. Thanks!
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Exactly.
And exactly what independent test results data would the SEC or FDA have access to prove saying it's a cure wasn't true!
Its not saying they agree that it is a cure!
The SEC wouldn't take action unless ENZC's claims were demonstrably false.
ie People filling a complaint that ENZC doesn't have the cure would need to bring links.
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We have the running total of every share issued, adding up to O/S.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/323613/content
All these shares (except 32.5 Million from this year) are shown in non-company hands. ENZC as a company was holding none (unless they bought some back in Q3 2022) and Harry is the only insider listed as personally having owned some. To pay Livingston, ENZC must draw from some pool of shares. This implies Livingston was already paid (or very nearly paid) in 2020.
Another clue is Restricted shares - only about 8M shares have become unrestricted during 2022. So if there were shares already paid to Livingston for the settlement, but stuck in Restricted until 2022 pending some SEC or negotiation detail, it was still far less than 115 Million.
Why is this important? Because it implies Livingston could only be a factor today if it was selling previously converted shares it's held onto since 2020.
I agree with you, we don't know when/if Livingston's shares were sold, just converted.
It does seem unusual that Sep 7 date was mentioned outside the quarter. Its significance could be, rather than a final block shares being paid to Livingston, perhaps that was the date ENZC could conclude with certainty the settlement agreement was indeed fulfilled. (ie It could be related to an audit event or some kind of sign-off from parties involved in the agreement.)
Agreed it is impressive how fast the new team has restructured this mess! It still seems a mess. But hey it's getting better. :)
So who's selling now? I mentioned the Unrestricted count growing 675 M in 2021 and that some of these entities (Livingston is on the list too) may have taken profit but not fully liquidated. We know Livingston could only keep 9.99% of O/S at any given time according to the settlement agreement. (4.99% if they want to avoid filing a 13D). I think it's important to look broader than Livingston when trying to guess how many shares we're dealing with in the current selloff. Livingston could still be a factor, but if so, seems it'd most likely be from holding shares acquired back in 2020.
How many are to be sold? Risky to cap expectations at 115M and the declining price can have a compounding effect from rattled investors. Doesn't matter either, if we get news that decisively reverses it. That's the gamble.
Let's see!
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Do you think the 115 M shares were paid to Livingston using shares ENZC already owned? There hasn't been 115 M increase in O/S this year; rather only 32.5 M.
Supplemental Information filing lists the running total up to 2,797,935,953 Outstanding. (Which equals the current O/S minus 32.5 M)
Of these, I only see 50 Million owned by anyone in company management. (Harry.)
There are also shares issued to Livingston after 3/31/2020 but we don't see from that Supplemental Information filing whether or not these were related to the 563 M settlement.
Even if ENZC issued 32.5 M new shares and Harry donated the other 50 M (though he probably didn't) to pay Livingston, that's still only 82.5 M.
So would that mean one of:
1) ENZC bought back some shares and used those to pay Livingston?
2) Livingston was already paid, or otherwise got paid less than the 115 M difference between the Sep 7 22 date and Mar 31 20 date?
Both possibilities seem plausible for different reasons. 1) seems plausible if ENZC wanted to prevent new dilution. But wouldn't the buyback show up on the books? 2) seems self evident, but then what about the Sep 7 22 disclosure? And who's selling so many now?
From the same Supplemental Information filing, I counted 675,815,876 shares that were moved from restricted to unrestricted in 2021. If some of those people only took profits last year and didn't liquidate - but for some reason are cashing out now - we could be talking tens or hundreds of millions of shares in the mix today. Perhaps.
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Right on, thanks. Those are the only two data points I know of as well.
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This seems plausible and here's some additional data:
1. In that Supplemental Information filing we see restricted shares becoming unrestricted throughout 2021. At the beginning of 2021 there are 1,127,105,441 restricted shares and by year's end 2021 there are 451,289,565 restricted.
At present on OTC markets, there are still 443,789,585 restricted shares. So not a lot of new unrestricted this year - but from December 31 2020 to December 31 2021 I'm counting 675,815,876 shares that were moved from restricted to unrestricted!
Maybe not everybody sold, and maybe some kept a few shares for a rainy day, but at whatever point they lifted restrictive legends, they could have sold. The Supplemental Information filing also mentions it's possible to "elect" whether to remove restrictive legends if SEC requirements are met. So if these guys elected to move shares to unrestricted, they probably wanted the option to sell.
It might take a long time for brokers to slowly bleed out 675 M shares. They also have to balance the orders of everyone in line to sell.
2. Livingston may have been converting up to 9/7/22. But it's confusing because only 32.5 Million new shares appear in the O/S so far in 2022. It kinda suggests ENZC paid Livingston in Common shares ENZC already owned; or not much of the settlement remained.
3. If The Zhabilov trust shares are in that supplemental info filing under "Zhabilov, Dannie TTEE" they are probably part of the total shares that were made unrestricted. If not, they'd only add to the selling pressure.
Agreed flippers have not been significantly dragging this down!
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