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Not at all, ERHE board much healthier open debate
Dadd: This board is a potentially great resource for ERHE stockholders, with some very astute experienced investors and oil industry knowledgeable people present.
But it is disquieting to me - and even sign of unhinged behavior - for any normal investor to post as frequently as the Meridians do and addditionally bombard posters with personal messages, move to JDZ when ERHE gets too hot, etc.
I would like to see no more that 15 posts/day from ANYONE, run off the likes of Meridians, and a test to limit posters to ERHE stockholders with 10,000 shares or more. Maybe identify folk on sign up to discourage abuse via the anonymity.
Intent is to get generally back to development of ideas and exchange of useful views and information for serious investors in a professional way, even with a little humor thrown in, but discarding the BS and acrimony.
Stay the Course - but this board sure does try one's patience.
Crazy: Now you know the board will expect thereafter for you to sign off with a photo of the romantic tete a tete, just like LFG has his big horny goat.
And if it were not to go so well, you could always have the dinner image on the right and the machine gun cat on the left.
Alrright: Glad to hear you have done better than alright on ERHE SP! OK, so ERHE then stays in essence a holding co. Could still do well on SP henceforth.
Common company play is to build a portfolio of non operated assets and work into operating, which along the way does call for E&P talents and their presence signals investors.
Not clear to me if ERHC plans for this to happen later, hence somewhat clouds the future view for SP.
Which comes back to the communicating thing.
Fishdog: I am a modest Afren stockholder and am happy with the situation. Broad range of projects, normal that it takes time to get the Block 1 clarified.
Afren does communicate with the outside world.
Nothing like the Possible-Probable-Proven reserves position of ERHE, but they do a lot right and have a Board and management team of real E&P people in contrast to Offor and henchmen.
SP of ERHE is indeed low but holding on patiently and attempting to Stay the Course.
LC: Learning something today! This is a lot better than the tiresome BS on ERHC at the moment.
Anyone know what they call oilfield newbies in Nigeria?
Trade2much: IMO, wild speculation to offer any kind of timeline . . . I just don't know. If they chose to put an EPS in, might start flowing oil in 2-3 years but otherwise 5+.
Point is that we don't know how it flowed, how the reservoir(s) is/are arranged, pressures, just huge unknowns other than all initial clues pointing to something very good.
I have listened to people in the business that may know, and altho they never break the rules, by considering many clues, what is said adn nto said adn dne adn not done, the dots do connect and I justify to myself an unprecedented (for me) investment in ERHE. Trust this might help a little.
I don't think anyone in the industry or even the CVX hands on the project can say just yet. All IMHO squared.
Fishdog: Just not practical normally to borrow an FPOS for a month or so, and usually can accomplish the production testing for some weeks in other ways - attempted (maybe unsuccessfully) to make that clear in my earlier post. Usually an FPSO means lot of advance planning and then operation for mutiple years.
One or two options around to accelerate a bit if enough money on the table, but struck me as lot of speculation at this stage.
All just takes time and hate to see wild speculation from very little basis that IMHO is a waste of time to the serious longs here.
LFG: Wow, next time a customer has a crazy unworkable idea for an FPSO, I'm going to tell him he will end up with an FPOS.
Naturally will give you proper attribution for the moniker.
Hmm, and conjures up a new descriptor for certain calibers of posts . . .
Stay the Course - and learn all kinds of good stuff on IHUB
Dadd: Where is the machine gun attack cat when we need him?
I fear I am showing my age: when I first went to work in the oilfield offshore Texas, "weevils" was the traditional term used by experienced hands for what people would call "newbies" today. A weevil was a hazard on the rig floor, could get himself (no women then) hurt or others. Had to be taken in hand trained.
Manti: You are right, planning and options thinking naturally is going on by CVX right now with their partners on drilling and field development programs.
"FPSO on B1" to my mind was stating the obvious, as much value to us stockholders trying to get clues on where the SP may be influenced to go, as saying it is a mile deep out there and expensive. JMHO as posters like to say. I kind of enjoy BWTFDIK too.
What happened to that machine gun cat? Glad to see that monkey and the big horny goat are still around to lighten up the board.
Stay the Course
Commonly to run a Drill Stem Test (DST), maybe 10-20 days, or even an Early Well Test (EWT), say 30-180 days, done with the deepwater drillship or semi there and could use a barge for the production, maybe even a tanker on DP. All takes many months of planning. But highly unlikely an FPSO at this stage.
Additionally in these water depths it takes serious investment in buying and installing the risers (the high pressure flexible or rigid pipes) that bring the oil from the subsea wells to the FPSO a mile or more above at sea level, and needed for FPSO use.
"FPSO on B1" perhaps 2-6 years from now. The implications drawn on the board this morning from Oilphant's cryptic post were way premature, IMO. But probably difficult to avoid in a forum like this. Classic situation of off the wall unrealistic snap conclusions but not seen that way if not in the business. Which is one reason why the board is here to clarify.
Stay the Course, if you have the patience
Bayfisherii: Happy to hear there is another from Texas on board, may counteract all the oilpatch weevils from up north.
Fishdog is dead on about CVX / XOM actions validating the prospectivitye for ERHE interests. But even with the unprecedented incentives from OBO-1, these CVX and XOM behemoths getting into a full run to chase the elephant herd in the ultra deep waters of JDZ is a challenge, takes time. And they have careful internal hurdles to jump over too.
Sure wish ERHE would do the equivalent of an ECL report like Afren did in early 2005 to show what we expect we have and provide a basis for investors staying the course until production - and the SP headed upwards along the way! The ECL report shows up on this board regularly, in fact someone posted it again today.
Several excellent companies in Houston that do that kind of thing.
Similarly Tatneft (TNT) had a problem 2-3 years ago with confirming reserves, a company in a next door building here did the necessary which helped reassure NYSE that TNT had XOM like reserves. Their PR was about as bad as ERHE's, and their ADRs were threatened with de-listing but look at them go now.
Stay the Course, if you can
Bayfisherii: Have had dealings with SYNM over the years.
You are right, a player in Nigeria. But not is JDZ.
By the way, how did you come up with your nom de plume?
Oilphant's "FPSO in B1" post has little significance. Just another sparkling lure in the water to get posters to snap at. And fish do snap at such lures.
An FPSO is the obvious development solution for JDZ B1 !
There is only one well drilled and part evaluated and maybe another underway. Does not mean an FPSO is going to be there pronto and ERHE producing in 2007. Even with an EPS maybe late 2008!!
Takes some time to find and get an FPSO, commit for B1 and more time to get on location. Not the same as Deepwater Discovery sailing in for a 60 day drilling program and leaving.
FPSO market is hot these days and deliveries long. Tough to find an existing FPSO on short notice.
This kind of post and the reaction does a dis-service to the board in getting folks' hope up on unrealistic projections, IMHO.
Now if Oilphant were to come out and say that "XXX" FPSO is under consideration by CVX to go on contract at YYY time for an initial contract of ZZZ years and cite sources, then that would be a useful contribution to the board.
Am in the business and could speculate on XXX, YYY and ZZZ but would be totally irresponsible.
If insider wannabes want to leak clues, IMO they risk getting run off by their employers, and in the event of a serious dispute, the discovery process would quickly identify them.
And after that serious stuff, any jokes now, e.g. scapegoats and low float goats and other big horned critters?
Balance Builder: Hang in there, board needs your influence.
Board is a microcosm of a democracy. Never works perfectly. But have to listen to the nuts and wade through all the chaff and somehow it self corrects and works.
The "HDY Guinea" is maybe 1000+miles away from the JDZ and well off the map at the head of this board. If one counts in HDY then one should logically include all the oil cos. active from there to JDZ (meaning all of Nigeria, Cote Ivoire etc.)and that would to defeat the purpose of this board in focusing on the unusual situations of the JDZ.
Just a hundred or two miles to the east in the Gulf of Guinea one would then include Marathon, ExxonMobil and Hess but they are rightly not listed here.
It's instructive to take a map out of West Africa - all gets clear in a minute.
JDZ is an interesting growth scenario that benefits from this kind of board, with multiple investment opportunties in the list of companies identified at the top of this board. All is fast moving and good information for taht aprt of the world often difficult to get. A board like this can help everyone, IMHO, and applaud Instructmba's efforts.
I only question HDY and SYNM as not fitting the JDZ profile although both are interesting plays.
Understand SYNM has an interest in some Nigerian blocks but do they qualify as an interest holder in JDZ like the other companies rightly in the list on the board header?
SYNM has been a pioneer for some years in Gas to Liquids (GTL) technology and not an E&P player like the other interest holders in JDZ.
Anyone clarify on rationale for their inclusion?
Understand SYNM has an interest in some Nigerian blocks but do they qualify as an interest holder in JDZ like the other companies rightly in the list on the board header?
SYNM has been a pioneer for some years in Gas to Liquids (GTL) technology and not an E&P player like the other interest holders in JDZ.
Anyone clarify on rationale for their inclusion?
Have to cry "Guinea Fowl" at including HDY in the JDZ as there is a gulf of difference between where it is and the Gulf of Guinea.
It's all in darkest Africa and so difficult for moderators to see where the guineas are.
Then there is Papua New Guinea with a lot of petroleum activity there. And of course there are all these guineas in New York.
Doubt if I'll get a guinea for this caliber of puns.
If you like it and read this far - obviously a guinea pig.
Homeport: Yes, I have to be there at Rice Global E&C Forum, in fact I invited Phil to talk.
Always happy to ask questions and have a reputation for doing so, but cannot guarantee you answers!
However in fairness this is an event about strategy, directions and the future for the E&C business and not any kind of "ERHC progress report" situation. You can get a flavor from the presentations at last year's Forum that are on the website: www.forum.rice.edu Thus if Phil or any other stockholder got off in that direction would respecfully guide them back on track.
Maybe his movie deal will answer your questions. More fundamentally we need Afren like corporate communications.
Stay the Course
Magic: Much appreciate your time in explaining Energem role and hence nothing to bother about.
Homeport: Certainly, will post the link to Engr. Funsho Kupolokun's presentation at Baker Institute at Rice University as soon as I get it.
Incidentally Phil Nugent of ERHE fame is due to speak at Rice on 17 October at the Rice Global E&C Forum on "Significance of Events & Policy Shifts in Nigeria" www.forum.rice.edu for more information on this organization, program not posted yet - we finalized program it last month. This is a group of major Engineering & Construction contractors, mostly in petroleum industry, some upstream and lot downstream. High caliber event.
Stay the Course
STP with Energem as advisor on JDZ development: I stumbled across paragraphy below in a Quarter ended 31Aug05 report by Energem Resouces (ENM on TSX). Anyone on the board able to educate me on the relevance of this vis a vis the ERHE position? Help? Conflict? Irrelevant?
3.3.4 SAO TOME
In February 2004, the Company entered into a joint venture (JV) with the Democratic Government of Sao Tome et
Principe to manage and develop on their behalf their oil allocation contracts with oil producing African countries.
The Company has a 70% interest in the joint venture and whilst to date no active trade has taken place in terms of
the JV, the relationship with Sao Tome is considered strategically important to the Company’s presence in the West
African oil region for the long term.
Homeport: I was there at the Baker Institute to listen to NNPC's CEO: overflow crowed and fascinating story of NNPC recreating itself as a modern integrated oil company and at the same time taking a responsible interest in the country.
He provided much new information I for one had never seen before, substantially beyond the material cited in the "This Day" story about gas for GOG.
I asked Baker Institute about later access to his presentation, was told it is to be on their website in a few days at www.bakerinstitute.org
Stay the Course
Art: That FPSO is not going to Block 4 and I asked Addax at the OTC last week about plans for a rig to drill in Block 4 and nothing is in place as far as I could see, i.e. drilling in Block 4 in this market for ultra deep water drilling rigs may take a while.
Nevertheless Addax has increased their equity production to 94,000 bopd a fortnight ago, good sign for them, I bought a little more AXC.
But patience is a prerequisite for ERHE longs . . . what's new
Meridian/Dane: All the re-filings and delays do make one wonder but it could also be African muddle.
Sometimes even here in the US companies do things that do not make sense to many others but that is the way the guy in power does it. Factor in African priorities . . . Just no telling IMHO.
Stay the Course, if you can tolerate all the fog
The cultural spectrum on this board is fantastic, from Gunsmoke to the Sirens of Greek mythology, to Chinese chess.
Even herds of big horny sheep, raging bulls and bears. Of late I do miss that cat and the monkey.
More seriously the entertainment does offset the bickering and calculations of SP and reserves dreams. IMHO the judgement and informed guesses of the savvy traders and oilfield investors here is worth reading for one's own considerations of weighing trends.
Stay the Course, if you can
A typical Chevron discovery PR when they choose to disclose something of what they found can look like that below, and may clarify some of the speculations on this board. But expecting an idea of X billion bbl is nuts IMHO.
ChevronTexaco Announces Discovery in Deepwater Gulf of Mexico
Discovery Continues String of Exploration Successes
SAN RAMON, Calif., Sep. 7, 2004 -- ChevronTexaco Corp. today announced a new deepwater oil discovery at the Jack Prospect located in Walker Ridge block 759. The block is approximately 270 miles southwest of New Orleans.
Operated by ChevronTexaco, the Jack #1 discovery well is located in approximately 7,000 feet of water and was drilled to a total depth of 29,000 feet on July 29. The well encountered more than 350 feet of net pay oil sands. Further appraisal drilling is planned to determine the extent of the discovery.
"The Jack discovery is our latest success in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, where we have had a greater than 50 percent success rate in our 16 wildcat wells since late 2001," said Ray Wilcox, vice president of ChevronTexaco and president of ChevronTexaco Exploration and Production Co. "This string of discoveries is the result of properly executing our focused, high-impact exploration program."
"Jack follows our earlier success at the Saint Malo discovery and is confirmation of further potential of our exploration acreage," said Kathleen Arthur, vice president of ChevronTexaco’s Gulf of Mexico deepwater business unit.
ChevronTexaco owns a 50 percent working interest in Jack. Partners are Encana (25 percent working interest) and Devon (25 percent working interest).
Currently celebrating its 125th anniversary, ChevronTexaco is the fifth-largest energy company in the world, based on market capitalization. With more than 50,000 employees, ChevronTexaco conducts business in approximately 180 countries around the world, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas, and marketing and distributing fuels and other energy products. ChevronTexaco is based in San Ramon, Calif. More information on ChevronTexaco is available at chevrontexaco.com
ChevronTexaco Announces New Discovery in Deepwater Gulf of Mexico
NEW ORLEANS, Oct. 29, 2003 -- ChevronTexaco today announced a new deepwater oil discovery at the Saint Malo Prospect located in Walker Ridge 678. The block is located approximately 250 miles south of New Orleans.
Operated by Unocal, the Saint Malo discovery well is located in approximately 6,900 feet of water and was drilled to a depth of 29,066 feet. The exploratory well encountered more than 450 net feet of oil pay over a gross interval of 1,400 feet.
"The Saint Malo discovery is a very positive result. Our interest in the prospect was secured with a trade and is an example of our long-term strategy to acquire strategic assets and deliver superior exploration success from our Gulf of Mexico deepwater portfolio," said Ray Wilcox, president of ChevronTexaco Exploration and Production.
"We are excited by the results of this well," said Kathleen Arthur, vice president of ChevronTexaco's Gulf of Mexico deepwater business unit. "We have a good acreage position in the area and look forward to additional exploration drilling next year."
Further appraisal drilling is planned at the Saint Malo Prospect to determine the extent of the discovery.
Dadd: Great pictures of "Deepwater Discovery". Thanks.
Perhaps you can confirm for our theoretician oilfield experts how these cranes are are used to dunk bashers head first at high speed, and how they are additionally used for practice with trainee crane drivers for landing loads on a service boat in rough weather, i.e. the basher risks bashing the deck or immersion.
"Offshore Rig 52" offshore Nigeria was rumored to have a long plank out over the water. That was before bashers, used to deal with these weevils that would not learn. But technology has advanced in 2006.
Stay the Course, but watch for weevils and bashers
Dadd: Just right!
"Another deepwater drillship en route to drill on ERHE blocks in JDZ" as byline? . . . Or . . . "A true African elephant hunter" ?
Properly equipped for the job (for benefit of all these well meaning weevils out there).
Stay the Course
Dadd: That Jackup!!
I do seriously appreciate your contributions but that jackup grates on my sense of deepwater propriety when we are in 5-8,000 ft. v. jackup for 100-400 ft. w.d.!!! How about a picture of one of the Transocean drillships, even the one that drilled OBO-1?
Stay the Course, have to with ERHE
Gas market for JDZ: A matter of doing due diligence, dig into it a bit more yourself and find out what progress is underway in Nigeria LNG, and see how not all will go to us in the US!!! European market this year has been diverting cargoes there.
Market at play even in today's world of shortages when the economics are there, witness MODU day rates last 12 mos. and same principle for production related equipment.
This board talks again and again for DD . . . Woudl suggest that the boe are indeed worth counting in today's world.
Stay the Course, despite day rates
Remember Oscar Wyatt in South Texas 40 years ago? Made a fortune collecting and selling "useless gas in small quantities".
He had vision, like the founders of ERHE 8 years ago, oh yea of little faith.
Stay the Course
Maestro: Try $130,000 per inch mile, say a 16 inch line for maybe 200-300 mmscfd for 150 miles (don't know richness or compression) but ballpark is then 16 x 150 x 130,000 = $208 million, lay it in a season, ready to go say 2008-2009, i.e. consistent with plans for export via LNG and gas field developments by indies.
Good then for 20 years, based on GOM. Very economical way of delivering gas ashore, worthwhile when long term gas export now expected.
Stay the Course, even for gas
Maestro: Gas is no longer worthless over there - Nigerian LNG trains under construction may take much of associated gas, witness EEL exploring for gas for these. It is a side effect of capitalizing on elimination of flaring and exploitation of gas reservoirs in Nigeria - it becomes very doable to lay pipe 100-150 miles from offshore locations to LNG liquefaction trains. Parallel would be Gulf of Mexico where such lines hook into trunk lines to consumers across the US.
A couple of years ago the perception was indeed one of gas being worthless. But believe that "Times are a changin'" as Bob Dylan would sing, even for Nigeria. All JMHO.
BB, Oilman57: More fundamental than "tarting it up" with IR, PR and lack of it in ERHE. Look at Afren and their slate of officers and directors, a real operating oil co. altho just started, mostly good prospects but the credible team of strong horses is there to make it happen, and obvious by oilfield standards.
No wonder that multiple mutual funds are buying into them.
They even go an independent consultant (ECL) to do a report on their prospect.
Value is there in ERHE but a quite different animal.
Stay the Course, if you are patient enough.
Balance builder: My impression from a little discreet DD with these ex partners prior to adding ERHE to my holdings is that the dealing with local indies, there for a fast buck, who cannot continue beyond the initial bid round was a strong negative from ongoing future aggravation and economic viewpoints of US partners and that the FCPA side had much less to do with it.
Stay the Course