Nobody KNOWS anything including you. Like 99% of the posts on this board it's a prediction.

Not worried about the science. Worried about ability to communicate to FDA and other reg. bodies to obtain approval. Best science and poor execution means failure.

Partnership is fine and that likely ultimately the answer, but that gives much of he value away. So, no $1249 per share, more like $25 max.

I agree.
Missling will update his big shareholders right up the reg FD line, but except for earnings calls and trial readouts everyone else gets nothing.

At this point Missling is saying to himself: "F" these guys, there's no way to please them short of FDA approval so I'm going to stop trying.
I think shareholders can expect minimum updates from here on out until any approval and that's all.
The only way I'm wrong is if isn't aware of all the blow back, but I doubt it.
This is dead money for a long time.

Unfortunately, I agree. Missling doesn't seem to appreciate that he has do it WAY better than the big boys. He has to be perfect or Anavex gets thrown away with the trash. He needs to live in the real world and NOT in his research bubble.
There's a small chance he can fix some of the mess tomorrow, but I don't think it's in his DNA to do what's required. The first of which is to acknowledge the mistakes at CTAD, acknowledge the criticisms and directly address them one by one. He should start with the missing ADCS-ADL primary endpoint data - create the same exact slide as ADAS-Cog. If that data can't be created he has to clearly explain why not. Some (cynics) will assume there's a problem (myself included), but at least there's an attempt to deal with the issue.

Does anyone REALLY believe Missling is going to present anything new Monday morning?
All he will do is re-read the press release and re-read the CTAD slides.
He won't directly address any of the reasonable criticisms.
This is who Missling is.
Reminds me of the old quote that I will paraphrase: when someone shows you who they are, believe them.
Missling has been the same, predictable CEO since 2015 when I first became aware of Anavex.

The longer it takes to post a corrected ppt deck the more likely there are more and major problems with the data.
Up to and including oops we didn't meet the endpoints afterall.

Yep, Missling would screw up a bake sale.
He did have a few days to pull together less than 10 data slides so there's that...
That said, his options were: go with a hastily pulled together deck with McFarlaine complaining about it OR cancel the presentation.
The natural inclination is to plow ahead, trusting your people to get it right which I respect.
I think canceling would have been disastrous for reputation and the stock price and perhaps should have been done to be certain of the numbers.
Until a new deck comes out with a corrected press release the stock may be up, but muted somewhat.

Filed 8K with press release. Risky to do that when there is problems with the data.
I don't know what to think about these guys. Almost no matter what they do in the end there is doubt.
If it turns out that the math mistakes mean a miss anywhere God help them.
McFarlaine should have kept his mouth shut about timing of data.

Then Anavex needs to walk up to the podium tonight with the partner.

The thing you're forgetting is that Anavex is small unknown baby bio. The bar is WAY higher for Anavex than Biogen, Lilly, big pharma in general. Anavex has to overcome that pull which means they have to absolutely crush it. It sucks, but it's the truth.

Anything short of that is the yawn I'm predicting.

First slide has to say:
WE BELIEVE WE HAVE THE CURE FOR ALZHEIMERS
Second slide:
FROM WHAT I HAVE SEEN IN THE DATA AND REAL LIFE I WOULD GIVE THIS DRUG TO MY MOTHER, FATHER, ETC. ETC. RIGHT NOW
Third slide:
LET ME TELL THE STORY THROUGH DATA WHY I BELIEVE WE FOUND THE CURE

There's always a first time.....however....

There's absolutely NO evidence to suggest Anavex will deliver epic, earth shattering results this evening. I think a big yawn with a comment "ok, maybe that's interesting" is all they will get. A big key for me will be how many people are in the room for the presentation. If it's packed that will be important.

The net, net is Missling just doesn't know how to handle these moments and more often than not the company completely botches up these announcements.

Maybe McFarlaine can handle it differently. I will say that the chief investigator delivering is a good call given that he's not an officer of the company so he has a bit more leeway to be more positive and hopeful if it's warranted without risking stepping over the line. Missling would have to be way more careful like he is at investor conferences and earning calls.

It will all be over soon. Thank the good Lord.

Wish I knew what that meant.

Remember last year when AVXL released earnings on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving with the call being after the market closed that evening. I don't care what anyone says in the company's defense - that was about as sketchy as it comes.

If Missling doesn't show up at CTAD I strongly believe it's because he doesn't have anything to present.

Which by the way is joke as it doesn't take 5 months to produce TLD.

The fact that it he doesn't have or won't present data should give everyone pause.

It doesn't mean disaster, but objective investors should at least question what is going on at the company.

This is why Missling needs to f'ing hurry the F up.
Richard Engel of NBC news son died of Rett.
Engel is really good dude and this is heartbreaking.

Henry Engel is not alone in battling and losing this fight, but for today because of who his father is he's the most public.

https://texaschildrens.site/duncan-nri/henry.html

Here's what real board do. Buy 100,000 shares for $2 million. SAVA stock now up $5 bucks on the news

If clearly not the case means your 2 examples then fine.

There are many many more examples of biotechs geting bought for $2 to $3 billion before any meaningful results in the clinic. A couple this week as a matter of fact.

This is a lie about SRNE's lead independent director on the website. Mr. Followwill is no longer with Frost and Sullivan as of 2020. The 10K has is correct, but no one bothers to read the 10K. I wonder why he left and to this day doesn't have a job.

He has been Senior Partner, Transformational Health at Frost & Sullivan, a business consulting firm involved in market research and analysis, growth strategy consulting and corporate training across multiple industries, since 2016

My premise is valid. Your premise is anecdotal. I see 2 on your list. Plus you prove my point. If you can get anavex for $3 billion today why pay $10 billion later.

Isn't it strange that no big pharma is willing to take a flyer on Anavex?

They could offer 3 X today for $3.0 billion and Missling would have to seriously consider it since it would be a major value creating event for shareholders.

A fairness opinion would be required from Missling's board and I don't see Morgan Stanley saying "nope $30 undervalues the company you are worth $1249 and should hold out for that price."

The fact that "many long biotech managers who only know that AVXL is pursuing ALZ drug" is an indictment of a significant part of Missling's job.

They're NOT. Just buying cause they have to in index and ETFs.

No analyst unless he wants to get fired is at a desk at Blackrock advocating the purchase of SRNE shares. It's not happening people.

The shares owned are increasing dramatically because the weight has to remain consistent and the stock price has cratered. Just math.

40% dilution since 12/31/21. What a complete cluster.

Any remaining bulls MUST throw in the towel.

Henry Ji MUST be fired. If he had any self respect he would QUIT.

Merck's new Alzheimer's strategy. Probably didn't look at AVXL.

Why not Dr. Missling?

https://cerevance.com/2022/08/09/cerevance-establishes-strategic-research-collaboration-with-merck-for-the-discovery-of-novel-targets-in-alzheimers-disease/

Getting LPC off the books is a consequential event to me even if just optically. Missling didn't have a lot of choice when he set up LPC and an open ATM isn't great, but no more toxic financing was a big step. So was the big private placement at $25 or so.

I wish people would read AVXL's SEC reports. They would find that the LPC financing deal was closed last year. I think reported in the 6/30/21 "Q" but I can't recall exactly.

If you said tapping Cantor today that would be a possibility although I doubt it.

2 comments on that statement:
1. I don't believe that statement since I didn't hear it myself and MB are not a source of truth.
2. Even if true, that's still a negative because that's what CEOs say when he or she is stalling, distracting investors away from real issues, hiding the truth, etc.

One of you should use that line on your spouse tonight and see how it goes and report back. My guess is not well.

Yesterday Missling let the market know that he expects Rett to be first to commercialization with his statement that AVXL has enough 2-73 for the rollout of Rett treatment. That implies that either he expects to run a phase 4 trial for Alzheimer's OR failure in the current Phase 3 trial.

The other thing that bothers me is that regulatory agencies as part of the approval process have to inspect the manufacturing facilities so my mind that Rett 2-73 inventory is worthless since it was made pre-approval and inspection. Note that even if the facility has been inspected for other drugs, the FDA and others require inspection - seeing 2-73 being made - as part of the application for approval.

Lastly, I see nothing on the balance sheet that would indicate any inventory of 2-73. The dollar amount may be immaterial so it's buried in another line like prepaids, but as technical accounting matter that's not correct.

So you didn't believe what Missling had on the corp. deck slide that data was coming in 2H22?

Maybe acknowledged, but implications not reflected on 2022 catalyst slide. Still said data 2H22 until last month. The current corp. deck published yesterday has the change.

Missling must think investors are stupid. He's been saying Rett readout by end of the year and now he's just finding out about the 3 month wait for vaccine - something he said on the last call. This guy truly sucks. From transcript below:

Dr. Christopher Missling

We reminded last quarter that we had the situation that the vaccines were approved for pediatric population. And since the trial requires a three months of constant or consistent medication, a vaccine is a trigger for this three months duration. So, when a patient or participant in the study or a willing participant to join the study has a vaccine taken, the last dose will be or that vaccine will be triggering a three-month period before somebody can join the trial. And we noticed that would lead to some slower enrollment, and we just are made aware of that. And that’s part of this process. So, there’s really not anything else, but that we want to make sure that we follow the guidance of the protocol, which requires this three-month period.

As good an explanation as any as to why the stock is $10 and not $100. No one is willing to hold the stock as dead money into 2024.

Thoughts on why Missling buried the last patient last visit announcement in the earnings PR? Same for PDD OLE?

No separate PRs for either one. He didn't specifically promise that, but it was certainly implied.

Great CFO you hired Henry. Can't deliver the simplest of responsibilities on time.

Could also be because the competent members of the Finance and Accounting staff have all quit and all that's left are D players. CFO is recruiting hard, but no one will leave a current job to go to SRNE.

If as you suggest Missling's plan is to drop TLD in October with a detailed presentation at CTAD in November that would ABSOUTELY work for shareholders assuming unambiguous positive data.

Great! We all get to debate what "Fall" means for the next several months.

Kind of like what is "soon" or what is "mid year" or my favorite what is "year end."

My question is why didn't we know about today's poster PR? Who is falling down on his/her due diligence responsibilities?