Making Marijuana Millionaires
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09/26 Monday a discussion on interstate commerce , a boon for Lowell if it happens, as well this would be very intersting for Shwz in regards to the Lowell 35's that not part of the Lic deal , The lowell 35's are game changer in the price point per stick
We are hosting guest speaker Adam Smith this Monday, 9/26 @ 12:30pm, to discuss the implications of interstate commerce for the cannabis industry. You can read about our take on the newly signed bill below:https://t.co/0FZnJ9Qfvc @HowardWPenney pic.twitter.com/Kc3JKJYSla
— Hedgeye Cannabis (@HedgeyeCannabis) September 21, 2022
09/26 Monday adiscussion on interstate commerce , a boon for Lowell if it happens
We are hosting guest speaker Adam Smith this Monday, 9/26 @ 12:30pm, to discuss the implications of interstate commerce for the cannabis industry. You can read about our take on the newly signed bill below:https://t.co/0FZnJ9Qfvc @HowardWPenney pic.twitter.com/Kc3JKJYSla
— Hedgeye Cannabis (@HedgeyeCannabis) September 21, 2022
In response to the chart i just put up , This is why Colorado is the best state to do business there is barely any illegal cannabis competition according to this pic New Mexico aint to shabby either . SHWZ is so contrarion its not on anybodys radaer except the usual pump and dump fools over on twitter
Never seen this interview in Regards to the NEO
HMMMMM
If only there were a recession-resistant sub-sector with a mostly USA supply chain that won’t get clobbered by Big Money ? Hmmmmm I wonder ??
We all got PTSD "Pot Trading Stress Disorder"
“the pot war already happened man; anyone who’s left has PTSD.”
Schumer: "working on it"
Booker: "SAFE+ post-midterms"
Joyce: "SAFE+ Nov/Dec"
Merkley: "time to seal the deal"
USA Treasurers: ? 76%
USA Community bankers: ? 65%
Perlmutter: "I've got a nuclear option"
Republicans
Market: "I don't believe you" or "I don't care"
Cosmic Polarity in Action = Equal and Opposite Reaction
Roth Capital
Cannabis 2H22 Outlook: LT Story Intact, NT Headwinds Expected
With U.S. cannabis expected to now grow 7% -9% in 2022, we believe tempered expectations for 2H22 are priced in against an increasingly difficult macroeconomic backdrop and ongoing price compression, while warming up to federal legislation progress. Valuations remain compelling for U.S. operators, primarily those with strong balance sheets generating cash flow, and we believe the long-term bullish thesis remains intact, despite near-term headwinds. We expect pricing will compress margins but will be offset by regulatory easing, operations efficiencies/scale, and illicit market conversion, while institutional access/volume should increase as incremental federal policy reform improves capital access. We see more pressure on smaller operators (lack of capital) and ancillary players (weak end markets) with further consolidation expected. When compared to traditional CPG, MSOS trade at roughly half their valuation (2.0x vs 4.0x 2022E EV/sales) despite having higher estimated revenue growth (15-20% vs 5-8%) and similar margin structures.
Cannabis remains a compelling secular growth story, macro headwinds and legislative delays a near-term issue: We remain bullish on the cannabis story both in the U.S. and globally, viewing the $65B+ U.S. illicit market as a material market conversion opportunity. We believe as the industry matures, pricing will compress naturally as access improves, bringing new consumers into the legal channels, while cultivation/vertical scale offsets margin pressure. We still expect the U.S. to reach ~$100B in sales at maturity and believe these stocks will trade in-line with CPG peers at ~4.0x NTM EV/sales, with MSOS currently trading at a 50% discount at ~2.0x multiple. The same narrative can be applied globally, with the timeline now pushed out due to geopolitical uncertainty, but remain constructive around the need for tax revenue generation within countries impacted by macroeconomic pressure. Cannabis legalization on both a state and country level should accelerate as neighboring jurisdictions legalize, followed by U.S. federal movement which will improve capital inflow and current trading liquidity conditions. We believe 2022 sales will come in below pre-year expectations but still remain positive on the long-term opportunity.
Warming up to U.S. federal reform, several avenues to improve the cannabis investment environment: Several factors unique to cannabis continue to plague U.S. operators, including limited banking access, secondary CSE/OTC listing status, and punishing high tax rates. While momentum in the Senate continues to build for SAFE Banking, we remain cautiously optimistic about its passage. We expect near-term compromise/progress to create banking with social equity measures to form SAFE+ and champion incremental cannabis reform with its passage potentially during the lame duck period at year-end.
Building a defensible market by” Going Deep”
The following is part of the transcript from Jd’s recent interview
(In regards to the top 5 MSO’s) There seems to be a lot of support for other companies and what they're doing and the space more broadly so we'll see where that goes , and it feels like a massive inflection point is coming ( Big MSO’s to spread out ). If it does happen, it's just a waiting period. In the meantime we continue to look after the real estate that we've got and expand the footprint that we've got and make sure that it's that it's profitable it's it's all about getting to 100 Stores
Let's just take Colorado Colorado's roughly a 2.2 billion dollar addressable market for cannabis we're 120 million dollars in that state roughly that's six percent ! I think we can certainly build a four to five hundred million dollar business with wholesale and with retail and branded products and services I think that's very achievable for us over time and continue to do what we're doing doing being really disciplined around Capital allocation how we invest our capex making sure we're getting good returns making sure we're doing the right acquisition deals continuing to broaden our product capabilities for wholesale and being able to offer that to the 630 stores that we don't own.
That's a huge opportunity because we can really make life easier for them if they want to
stay independent and do their own thing that's great we can we can help them create value lower their costs make life easier for them to take care of those customers in towns where we're not in
I think in New Mexico I think we can build a couple hundred million dollar business down there it's a 400 million dollar total addressable market today it's going to a billion so I think we can easily build a market like that there with retail and wholesale and uh and then you you know then you've got other states out there as well.
My goal my goal is build a great company that's different that has real energy behind it that is innovative that does the right thing and we're sticky with communities we're doing the right things what we're doing better to help our customers
At the end of the day when I go to sleep at night I feel good about that can it be a 1 billion dollar Revenue company could it be a 2 billion dollar Revenue company , We could buy somebody merge with someone and have it be much bigger than that down the road
It’s finally happening!! Join us for the celebration 🎉 #RolledSuperior #Lowell35s #L35s pic.twitter.com/B9WJ9Aw29k
— Lowell Farms (@LowellFarms) September 21, 2022
Buying any cannabis stock right now means you buying at or near 52 week lows or ATL's.
From a real estate perspective SHWZ is like buying the worst house in a great neighborhood . The Colorado Cannabis trade gets knocked because all most people do is parrot the industry mouth pieces . Most people overlook the good stuff , they just glance at the exterior and drive on . It takes a skilled buyer to see what potential SHWZ has in CO . At some point these type of buyers end up with the most equity over time as it doesnt take much before the entire neighborhood is awesome . and SHWZ owns 20% to 25% of it 25 dispensaries , approx 75 more to go, 100 dispensaries coming up
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxipN8kALsaVHB5V0lIazdezYzCky7etIv
Safe has huge shot passing in the next few months
70% of the Republicans are fully for this safe banking initiative over 55% actually consume cannabis according to Boris Jordan from curaleaf and this interview , I just added a little 60 second teaser clip of the conversation he had With the Dale report
There are many people out they're speculating ( including BoJo ) that the big mso's are at a huge advantage and will have the possibility to buy all the smaller tier-2 tier-3 mso's because of a lack of potential financing if Safe banking doesn't pass . Except there is one huge problem they are at their Max Capacity and many of those States because these are not fully legal states like Colorado and New Mexico.
Once again Justin Dye and his team @ SHWZ have been far ahead of the Curve of issues like this. As time goes on I see their strategies being the most sound and the entire industry when it comes to a fully vertical operation that grows processes and dispenses.
SHWZ is about to enter a period where they are expected to generate free cash flow FCF from operations , JD has said these exact words in his recent interviews. Many new Dispensaries coming online that have already been paid for . New synergies with the wholesale warehouse in Colorado. New premium lic deals Lowell Farms . So many positives on the horizon . I have so many shares already , but frankly at this price i welcome the games people play , weak hands , whatever it is , Its a GIFT. Buy Low sell HIGH ... way higher in my opinion , just a matter of time.
Lowell 35's rollout in Cali
You're invited! pic.twitter.com/bZquMDJwoz
— Lowell Farms (@LowellFarms) September 19, 2022
Guess my point about you being a Bot has been proven with you over and over ?
This is what I read
"we believe limited recent capex spend will help improve supply demand economics as we head into 2023, which coupled with new states legalizing should drive growth. Overall, we continue to believe up-listing and improved retail access is the primary catalyst for stock performance, and believe the 2023 outlook is shaping up nicely."
Roth on Cannabis
Weekly ReHash: Cannabis Sector Performance Analysis
The cannabis industry remains in a bear market, with limited institutional access, ongoing structural issues and a difficult macro backdrop holding sentiment low. Trading multiples are at or near COVID lows, which served as a near-term bottom for the stocks in 2020. While we believe legislative progress will take time to play out, we have seen a pickup in volume among the MSOS in August, indicating potential optimism from investors around progress being made ahead of the midterm election period. While a difficult macro environment has led to a reset in estimates, we believe limited recent capex spend will help improve supply demand economics as we head into 2023, which coupled with new states legalizing should drive growth. Overall, we continue to believe up-listing and improved retail access is the primary catalyst for stock performance, and believe the 2023 outlook is shaping up nicely.
Jd said in an interview back in FEB
" I draw an analogy if you look at if you look at the food retail grocery business it's still filled with independents because as a local business it's who has market share at that city and in that
state and who has brand awareness and who takes care of the customer whose cost structure is better .
Just because just because we're in a couple of states ( its not a negative at all) as long as we have access capital markets as long as we're very efficient at what we're doing and and really listening to the consumer giving them the brands and products that they want , and at a fair price you can you can compete in this business it's all about being efficient and it's about market share
I love our strategy and have loved it since we've really started this in 19 it's taken us a little while to get these deals through regulatory hurdles which is frustrating but you know the
team's executing and we've done what we said we're going to do so i think there's multiple winners here. "
60 sec clip of JD talking about super regional strategy
https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx1oZjMTvxBjTGAyt9bnGZSNJ6WOEncUVi
Doc , are you a real person ? Your posts are so off target , i assume thats because bots get confused on how to reply with any rationale , especialy when there is a contrarian mso like SHWZ with a super regional strategy. Going deep is so different no one else is doing it , so i can see where NPC/Bots get lost on how to reply.
Unlike most other top growth stories in the space, Growth for Schwazze is not dependent on the integration of any large assets or looming legislation catalyst that could ultimately be delayed through factors outside management’s control. Schwazze growth is about enhancing efficiencies in operation and gaining customers within existing markets.
Jefferies Equity Research
September 16, 2022
Global | Cannabis
Highlights from Benzinga Cannabis Conference: Overall Optimism Around SAFE+
This week we attended the Benzinga Cannabis Conference, where we were also on a panel. Key takeaways: 1) General consensus (although not overwhelming) is SAFE+ will pass, likely in the lame duck, but without capital market protections 2) Many tier 2's and below are likely now "hanging on," business wise, in hope of SAFE 3) No real improvement in consumption trends in 3Q vs 2Q 4) Medical incumbents in NY will be wiling to pay a fee for rec, but with guarantees.
Likely to get SAFE+, but without capital market protections: On a positive note, while not overwhelming, there was a broad consensus among MSOS we spoke to (say 65/35) on SAFE+ passing, likely in the lame duck, and likely part of another package, probably the NDAA. The view is it will be current SAFE language with a number of social equity provisions added, most notably the HOPE Act. On a not so positive note, with the language not changed, and CLIMB Act unlikely to be added, it won't immediately lead to uplistings to NASDAQ of NYSE. There was a view, though, that it will be enough for the TSX. This, in turn, in our view, could possibly influence the US exchanges near-term. Further, it is also possible, remember, required updated FinCEN language may be broad enough to provide protection to the exchanges.
Many smaller businesses are hanging on: A much repeated view among the larger operators was that many smaller players, both cultivation and retail, are struggling to stay in businesses. It seems many of these smaller players are hoping if they can "hang on", then SAFE will come and provide relief. If SAFE doesn't come, the larger operators expect many more to fail, or potentially look for a sale at increasingly depressed prices. To this, it appears many larger operators are prepared to wait longer to pick up these assets. As an example of the growing pressures, we heard of retail in certain states offering terms of "their bills and a month of inventory" to take the assets of their hands.
Consumer trends not seen any improvement over 2Q: The pressured consumer trends from 20 have continued into 3Q, with little signs of improvement, and in some cases worsening. Discounting is also increasing, with this seemingly the main driver of any share traction across states, particularly so in Florida.
Incumbents in New York happy to pay, but with guarantees: We wrote in a recent Weekly (here) about how there has been a stand-off brewing between regulators and medical incumbents over a possible $20mn per operator fee to be able to switch to rec. We heard how negotiations are about to happen, and the incumbents appear generally prepared to pay the fee for certain guarantees/concessions, such as more stores (perhaps co-locate rec in all potential future 8 medical stores), a larger cultivation canopy allowance, and ability to supply retail directly, as opposed to via a distributor/wholesaler.
280e unlikely to go away any time soon: No conviction that 280e could go away any time soon, and even if it did, it would likely be replaced with something else, like a federal tax. On this, and as perhaps a lifeline for smaller operators, we are now hearing that an increasing number of companies are being allowed to defer payments over multiple years (up to 10 yrs), while more court cases are being pursued seeking tax relief along the same grounds as the recent State House ruling (here). Larger players are watching these developments. Related to this, it was brought up in a discussion with Curaleaf how it will be able to allocate expenses to its international business to provide some tax relief. We'd note other MSO's do not have this ability, but perhaps this is a reason to also look abroad, especially given near-term German rec as well.
NOBLE CAPITAL 09/16/2022
Schwazze
Expanding in Colorado
Another Acquisition. Wednesday, Schwazze announced the Company has signed definitive documents to acquire certain assets of Lightshade Labs LLC, which contains two dispensaries located at 503 Havana St. in Aurora and 2215 E. Mississippi Ave. in Denver’s vibrant Washington Park neighborhood, which includes the University of Denver. The proposed acquisition is for $2.75 million in cash with an expected closing in the first quarter of 2023. Operating financials were not provided
The Dispensaries. Both dispensaries are highly rated by Leafly and Weedmaps, with the Aurora location receiving 4.9 out of 5.0 ratings from each and the Washington Park store
receiving 4.9 and 4.3 scores. With Schwazze already operating dispensaries about 2 miles away from each location, the acquisitions continue to fill-in existing white space on the map, in our view.
Detail on Lightshade Labs. Founded in 2011, Lightshade Labs has opened 11 dispensaries in the Denver area of Colorado, with 8 being in Denver, 2 in Aurora, and 1 in Federal Heights. The Company also owns several growing facilities, according to press reports. The company markets flower, concentrates, edibles, pre-rolls, tinctures, and vapes among other products.
Continuing to Build. The acquisition will bring Schwazze's total Colorado dispensaries to 25
once closed, and will bring the total amount of dispensaries to 35, along with 7 cultivation facilities and 2 manufacturing assets in New Mexico and Colorado. Schwazze is continuing to
build on the goal on deeper market penetration through the acquisition, and we believe that the Company will continue to expand on the goal with New Mexico
Maintaining Outperform. We are maintaining our Outperform rating and $4.00 twelve month price target. At our price target, SHWZ shares would trade at 14x projected 2022 adjusted EBITDA, a premium to the peer group's 11.5x but warranted given our expectations for faster
growth at Schwazze.
Equity Research
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst
561-999-2262, jgomes@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate - jzoepfel@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Trading: (561) 998-5489 Sales: (561) 998-5491
www.noblecapitalmarkets.com
Cannabis Talk 101 and Advanced Nutrients visit Lowell Farms
Pedalfast is a caanabis marketing team , a little perspective on Lowell 35's
This guy on twitter knows what he is talking about and great idea he had to send his intel to Cashflowfree on twitter as he usally does his own math should add 2023 Revenue of 10 to 12 million per year and 900,000 to 1,400,00 in EBITDA
@cashflow_free $SHWZ updates announced in a PR and ABC NM Local News some new dispensaries...now at 33/43. On your previous spreadsheet posted, I replied to you with the NM link for +8 dispensaries. Today: +2 in CO-- totaling 10 additional: https://t.co/3IKSMrJCYy
— Ried Bridges (@Ried_Bridges) September 15, 2022
Doc , Dont you think speculation is half the fun of a new announcement ? When you consider both locations are less then 2 miles from existing Starbuds then all one has to do is pull up a map and see how close the remaining Lightshades or any other dispensary for that matter are within 2 miles , For example the Aurora Starbuds has another Lightshade 2 miles to the north.
Going Deep is for Real, no other MSO has this strategy, Not even Trulieve with 120 dispensaries in Fl , none are any where near that close on the map
Going Deep is no BS , the newly renovated Starbuds Glendale is 1.9 miles to the north and another Starbuds 1640 E Evans Ave, Denver is 1.8 miles to the south
A quick goggle search on the Light Shade Location at 2215 e mississippi ave denver co , and it pulls up multiple other dispensaries names beside LightShade - Lucy Sky , Sweetleaf and Meadows . It clearly is a very sellable asset location wise and quality of the dispensaries interior is very high end. Interesting to note that it is above a beautifully decked out Garden Restauraunt . It's surrounded by a super posh Retail/Restaurant/Spa District.
Lots of additonal exposure for lowell 35's coming
"Those victories alone would add purchasing options for more than 15 million residents in the three combined counties." A market of 15 million opening up for legal purchasing of cannabis sounds significant to me. I'm a bull on California cannabis. https://t.co/YisvoyaCUV
— Aaron Edelheit (@aaronvalue) September 14, 2022
Ceo George Allen on Lowell35's
https://open.spotify.com/episode/58f1SAlOpI9EioyfDAd8Yv
I know this is not SHWZ but it would be great to get the lowell 35's into the SHWZ arsenal
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540973-focus-on-flower-pre-rolled-cannabis
Lol you cant even spell his name correctly ,
I searched youtube for R.Greenleaf
I copied part of the transcriopt from the video
JESSE HUNT IS THE SPOKESPERSON FOR SHWZ THE COMPANY THAT OWNS OUR R.GREENLEAF.
SHE SAYS BUSINESS IS BOOMING AFTER TWO RECORD BREAKING MONTHS OF SALES IN OUR STATE.
THE NUMBERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES AND ANYONE WHO WANTS TO HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT IT.
I THINK WE JUST CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO GO UP
SHE SAYS SHE DOESN’T EXPECT TO SEE THIS SPIKE IN SALES SLOWING DOWN ANY TIME SOON.
IN TERMS OF A CEILING, I DON’T FEEL LIKE WE’VE IDENTIFIED THAT YET.
I THINK THERE’S A LOT OF OPPORTUNITY FOR US TO CONTINUE TO EXPLORE NEW MARKETS
I Meet Bret 7 yrs ago in Orlando back then MDCL was there ticker and Bret was a great Consultant that won many Lic for Canna Co's around the country. Everyone spoke very highly of him he was a straight shooter. He never got to see the transition from consulting firm to MSO status he would have been very proud of what it has become .
TILT Wins Benzinga Cannabis Award for Best Cannabis Partnership
September 13, 2022 07:30 ET | Source: TILT Holdings Inc.
...
PHOENIX, Sept. 13, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TILT Holdings Inc. (“TILT” or the “Company”) (NEO: TILT) (OTCQX: TLLTF), a global provider of cannabis business solutions that include inhalation technologies, cultivation, manufacturing, processing, brand development and retail, today announced that TILT won “Best Cannabis Partnership” at the annual Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference held in Chicago this week. The industry accolade spotlights TILT’s partnership with the Shinnecock Nation to develop cannabis operations on sovereign land.
“TILT is a partner-centric company at its core. In early 2019, we pivoted our strategy to essentially build our business around true partnerships starting with cannabis brand deals to bring popular brands to our markets. As the industry turned its focus to brand partnerships, we were already finding immediate successes and went even deeper when thinking about how to enter new markets which brought us to the Shinnecock Nation. We approach partnerships – whether partnering with the Shinnecock Nation and Little Beach Harvest in New York or with our brand partners across Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Ohio – with a lens of intentionality and impact, and we actively seek out opportunities that create growth and expansion in our evolving industry,” said Gary Santo, TILT chief executive officer. “We are proud that the industry recognizes our collaboration with the Shinnecock Nation as a prime example of that partnership value. From the beginning, our work with the Shinnecock redefined business models, as well as working relationships, to build sustainable growth through cannabis. Thank you to Benzinga for recognizing our efforts.”
The Benzinga Cannabis Awards celebrate new, creative, innovative, and outstanding people, solutions, and companies in the cannabis industry.
TILT and Shinnecock broke ground on the dispensary, Little Beach Harvest, in July 2022, and are planning a Q1 2023 opening. Plans for Little Beach Harvest include a 5,000 square-feet of dispensary space and a drive-through service along the main Southampton roadway, connecting the tribe with the Hamptons community. For more information on TILT, visit www.tiltholdings.com.
Doc here is the other part of Pablo's notes
Cantor note comments:
Pricing normalization: Operators are finishing CAPEX cycles. Smaller operators cutting growth spending. Seeing increased CoC. Companies shifting to a more defensive balance sheet stance.
MA/PA/IL/ etc. are not overbuilt vs. their A/U demand. Most nascent A/U states still need to increase their dispensary counts by 2-4x+ in order to adequately service their entire market.
This should translate to a leveling off of pricing pressures as dispensaries come online and the cultivation base is not expanding sufficiently.
Increased verticalization: Why we are focused on operators w/ high-quality product.
Verticalization will increase traffic to the dispensaries that carry the brands that consumers want; inverse is true Verticalization will also mean that stores need to carry the popular brands (high quality brands within each price point); we try to invest in these brands
Also heard comments on verticalization from smaller operators, noting that they tried to turn off wholesale and many customers still wanted the products, so they had to bring them back