I was going to procrastinate, but decided to put it off.
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A pile of shares traded in the mid to high 20's. IMO something strange happening.
I think we are going to see the 20's soon unless MAJOR news like a buyout comes in. Dec is usually weak for the penny stocks, from my experience anyway.
.335 I called it, LOW 30's. Now I think we could possibly see high 20's.
Potash Corp slashes 18% of its workforce because of weak demand:
03/12/13
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/03/potash-corp-slashes-18-of-its-workforce-as-demand-weakens/
Most of the cuts are in its potash and phosphate units.
I expect further weakness due to the December effect on juniors stocks, we could see high 20's. But I still feel we see low 30's soon.
I don't believe in TA for penny stocks this low. I think if the weakness continues we see mid to high 20's.
That day it hit 34 cents, it was almost like someone was pissed off at the stock and did a massive market order to drive it down.
Just gut feeling, they must have a pile of shares to burn.
We are heading into Dec, usually a slow time for mining stocks.
I keep remembering a penny stock guru's advice, his message was never average down on a losing position.
Not sure if this applies to AAA, but at this rate we could see the high 20's.
I bet tomorrow we close low. Holiday in the USA.
Posted all the trades here:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=29253069
Could not format it this way in iHub,
A pile of shares were dumped in the 34 cent range. Wonder whats up.
LOL, getting closer to 33 cents than 40. I still think we see low 30's. Hit 34, 33 soon?
Hopefully a buy out offer.
I will be happy with 3 dollars a share.
Most of the shorts covered:
2013-11-15 228,800 -1,622,800
2013-10-31 1,851,600 1,676,300
Short position for Oct 31 2013
2013-10-31 1,851,600
2013-10-15 175,300
.34 is low 30's. Have a good day.
It came close, I still stand by my prediction. Lets see how the stock preforms this week and next.
Share price, what do they know that we don't?
I said low 30's, I picked out .34 cents if it gets that low then I was predicting right.
The market still sucks, potash stocks still out of flavor, most mining companies in the toliet, slow season coming in a month.
No major news on AAA. So I can see weakness in the price. But things could go the other way and it could go up, its a crap shoot right now.
I predicted low 30's so around .34 would be spot on. If we hit that number, is either a screaming buy, or the end of the world as we know it.
Potash is out of flavor, the rest of the juniors still struggle. Coming into Dec, that is another slow time of the markets.
Production is still years out, so a buyout would make me happy.
We may hit our low 30's prediction I made.
Shipping potash in a year or a year in a half???? I would call the company and ask them, IMO I think we are years out yet. Only a buyout will pop this puppy in the short term. I don't want to hold till production.
Allana Potash Corp (C-AAA) - In the News
Globe says Cantor's Prattas upbeat on Allana Potash
2013-10-10 07:51 ET - In the News
Shares issued 276,915,751
AAA Close 2013-10-09 C$ 0.47
The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Oct. 10, edition that Cantor Fitzgerald Canada analyst Peter Prattas is bullish on Allana Potash (47 cents). The Globe's Darcy Keith writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. Prattas is holding firm on his "buy" recommendation. The analyst, however, boosted his target price on the shares to $1.15 from $1. Mr. Prattas notes that Allana Potash has announced the Ethiopian Ministry of Mines has issued a mining licence for its Danakhil potash project. Mr. Prattas says, "This event marks the achievement of another key milestone thereby further derisking the project and paving the way to complete financing." Loewen, Ondaatje, McCutcheon analyst Michael Fowler maintained Allana Potash at "hold" with a $2 price target in the Eye column on June 15, 2011. The shares were then worth $2.12. The Globe's David Milstead was somewhat upbeat on Allana on Aug. 1, 2013. It could then be had for 46.5 cents. The Globe's Ian McGugan figured Allana was bargain priced in the Number Cruncher column on Aug. 9, 2013. The shares were then worth 46.5 cents. The Globe's Brenda Bouw was a bit bearish on the potash sector on Aug. 22, 2013. Allana was then trading at 47.5 cents.
We need a buy out offer or this will be a long term play.
Good luck averaging down on AAA. Serious penny players never average down, its a sure way to lose your shirt.
I wonder what AAA had to pay to be interviewed?
Do you really think the scale of corruption is higher in Canada, than in a 3rd world country like AAA is invested in?
Apples to oranges.
Google is full of articles about corruption in Ethiopia. I am sure we have risk, would like to see the license approved, so we can move on.
https://www.google.ca/search?q=ethopica+curruption&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&gws_rd=cr&ei=Hw8qUp7bNMXNigLNqoCoDw#q=ethiopia+corruption+mining+license&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&spell=1
Lets hope.
Environment, Natural Resources and Extractive Industry
http://www.business-anti-corruption.com/country-profiles/sub-saharan-africa/ethiopia/corruption-levels/environment-natural-resources-and-extractive-industry.aspx
Business Corruption
According to a World Bank 2012 report companies state-owned drilling companies benefit from political favouritism, whereas private companies face high market-entry barriers.
Corruption is not uncommon within environmental and natural resource administration in Ethiopia. Accordingly, as reported by Global Integrity 2010, business inspections by government officials to ensure public environmental standards are generally carried out in an arbitrary and ad-hoc manner, and bribes are usually extracted from companies in return for favourable treatment or expedited processing.
Political Corruption
According to a 2012 report published by the World Bank, the mining sector in Ethiopia is a high corruption risk sector. The report identifies the risk of corruption to lay with licencing authority officials who issue mining licences through extortion and bribery. Officials also overlook breaches of mining conditions such as environmental, health, and safety regulations, or the extent or area of mining permitted, in return for bribes, ranging from ETB 500 to ETB 100,000. This heightened corruption risk in the issuing of licences has been associated with the small number of inspectors available to audit and inspect mining operations and to monitor compliance. Furthermore the absence of detailed guidelines outlining environmental, health and safety, and social conditions causes uncertainty both during inspection and the issuing of licences, which in turn increases corruption risks. Nevertheless, the same report notes that the Government of Ethiopia is addressing licence corruption in the mining sector through the establishment of a new computer database in order to improve access to license information, as well as the implementation of business process reengineering (BPR) to speed up the license issuing process.
Corruption on the Rise in Ethiopia
http://addisfortune.net/articles/corruption-on-the-rise-in-ethiopia/
Mining is also another industry that Plummer’s findings say is gaining ground in corruption. The risk areas undermining the industry, include; licensing, operations and mining revenue, whilst the absence of policy and regulatory framework in land management deterred regional states from implementing the law in the same way.
Thats a silly thing to say. Compare USA, Canada to Ethiopia. You can't compare a 3rd world government to ours.
The government is corrupt in Ethiopia. Do some research on it.
Thats why when newsletter and annalists do write-ups AAA, they mention political risk.
Most of them left the party, so I guess there is not much downside to the stock anymore. Knock on wood.
My only concern now is the license, as the Ethiopian government is corrupt, don't want to see any games being played with the license....as in holding back for better royalties, taxes, etc.
Looks like approximately 90% of the shorts covered:
2013-08-31 198,529 -1,300,000
http://www.stockwatch.com/Analytics/Shorts.aspx?action=go&symbol=AAA®ion=C
I will, its 3 business days to get the new positions, so today is the 2nd day. So Thursday late in the day or Friday.
New short position out by Friday. That could give us an indication of the share price in the short term.
I thought it was last month? So you say *Last month to go*, what do you think will happen to the share price, once the license is granted?
I guess I was too conservative for my price prediction for AAA, missed it by 1.5 cents.
See:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=91467348