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Northam43
Great call!
Can't understand all the criticism.
Quilland Penn,
E-minis and options are not the same. I would encourage you to learn about options and here is why.
Let's take your stock CLNE.
Using your 13/50 xover the buy signal was 7/31.
Assuming you bought it around 13.00, you are showing an approx. profit of 45%.
Instead of buying the stock on 7/31, you could have bought the Jan 15 Call for .70 cents. You can't lose more that .70, that is your risk....and you can sell at any time.
This same Call closed at 3.32 last Friday, giving you 270% profit so far. You must sell this call before the third Friday of Jan 09....but you are not required to hold it that long. Many traders just day trade call/puts for quick 10% - 30% profits on their favorite stock every day.
Ofcourse you can do both, buy the stock and buy calls on the xover. You could sell the call on the next price label using your profit to lower your cost basis in the stock and buy the call back at a lower price on the next price label that signals up. If you continue to do this on a sustained up trend, you will eventually be holding the stock for free, because your profits from the Calls or Puts have purchased the stock for you. Here's what I mean....
Many investors just go to cash in bear markets because there is a lot of risk in shorting stock, especially in bear market rallies. But to me buying Puts makes a lot of sense. I get rewarded when the market is tanking and my risk is only the price of the Put, I can't lose more than that.
QuillandPenn,
Thanks for the information. Yeah, I did understand the mess, lol.
I am curious about your moving averages. I have been doing something similar using 8/50EMA buying options a few months out. I just run a scan in the evenings on the up and down crosses of these moving averages on stockcharts and put in conditional orders to be filled the next day while I'm at work. I am very risk adverse, so I have only been buying puts since the overall trend is down. I realize that I have missed good opportunities on the up side since the July 15 low. But can't get past my own psychological barrier to go against the trend....which for me will not change until the 8/50 cross on the indices. CLNE did come up on my scan in July, but I assumed (maybe wrongly) that it would fall under the EFT - PBW unbrella which was (and still is)bearish. Perhaps you can correct my thinking or misinformation on this.
Anyway I always struggle with when to take a profit and I think your price labels will help me with this, so I thank you.
I see that some of your charts use 13/50 and some use 7/21. What is your criteria in deciding which ones to use? Which one do you use for EFTs?
I apologize for the long post, but really appreciate any information you will give me from your trading experience.
QuillandPenn
At what point does the price label reveal itself?
Is it during the day or end of day?
How do you play it when you have price labels back to back like on DRYS? (sorry I can't get a chart to post for some reason right now) But DRYS had a price label on 9/10 and a reverse price label 9/11.
Do you play the price labels in both directions or do you stay with the primary trend of the MAs?
Thanks!
Mongo,
Will you share some of the things you learned from that site when you have time?
Thanks
Gleno, your last statement can be read two ways. Expiration is next Friday, Aug 15.
http://www.cboe.com/AboutCBOE/xcal2008.pdf
Are you saying down tomorrow and up next week?
If so, I agree.
I "see" a fall also, but don't know if it will be today....within 48 hours, LOL!
Blasher
I vote for the book option, lol
Nice call Blasher!
I sound like a broken record every few days, lol.
farooq
When you say we're "suppose to take out 45", are you getting that sense from the chart you have posted in the ibox? Just trying to understand and see what you're seeing.
Thanks
No reply from stockcharts, but Q charts working now.
Gleno, are your QQQQ charts stuck at 11:00?
Mine are stuck. Have emailed stockcharts.
I'm wondering if $QVV would be better for AAPL since it is such a big % of the Qs.
Qs down 1.65% now
AAPL down 3%
Just thinking out loud
Hi Blash,
$QVV was on a sell at the close yesterday, so that was a pretty good signal. Just tracking it.
Looking at your chart, there seems to be a little gap at $42. Don't know if you saw it and just haven't highlighted it yet.
Gleno
I think you may want to try changing the ATR to a point value (like pt 1) for QQQQ. The results look a little better to me.
Nice call John!
sammy
I believe you have to double the set ATR to switch back long or short.
MVV 1.5 x 2 = 3.00 change directions
MZZ 1.1 x 2 = 2.20 change directions
Leftyg correct me if I'm wrong please.
lefty, keep posting.
leftyg
Thank you for sharing. I am preferring your type of strategy more and more....less trading, less stress, more profits.
Learning,
Yes I have become quite enamored with the Renko charts. I like to get the ATR off a candlestick chart and then apply it to the point value on the renko. Here are two examples for the daily. As you can see I set AAPL to $3.00 and QQQQ to .50
There is no doubt about the trend, and I like that.
Sorry John, I couldn't get the chart to post right. Signal went long @ 45.50. Looks like it is turning down now. I just know that BE likes to counter trend trade, so I mentioned it.
Leaving for vacation Monday, so I am content to sit in cash until I get back.....and then I will see if the daily Renko has changed trends.
You are one heck of a trader John!
Be,
Signal on 5 min Renko.
TicTac
My passion is equal to the task.
Hey John,
I'm glad to see you doing so well. Great job!
BE
There is a new Renko board and you can read about thm here:http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=12855
or at Stockcharts.
The Renko board is using many indicators to jump on at the beginning of a trend on various time frames. Many are penny stocks which does not interest me, nor does using a lot of indicators. I don't see why just using simple moving averages and changing the point value to a set average true range wouldn't work well on any timeframe. Here are the charts you asked for. The 5 min said to go short about 3:30 yesterday and the 15 min still had you in long EOD. But I think it is best if you are going to use these intraday to only trade with the trend which we know on the Daily Renko is down. So looking back the conservative play yesterday would have been to step aside until the 5 min confirmed the overall down trend @ 3:30 and then jump on and stay on until the MAs cross, then go back to cash....which may be happening now. I hope this makes sense.
Hi BE
I'm around. Just not into the intra-day trading as much. SPY board drives me a little crazy with people prediciting a move every few minutes.
I do better when I tell myself, "I have no idea what the market will do....just change directions when the chart says to change, lol.
Trying to play the trend with longer term options for greater profits and less work.
Really liking the Renko charts. Daily still says trend is down for now. 60 min says UP.
TicTac
My passion is equal to the task.
leftyg
Sorry you feel that way. We only make fun of Gleno's one million indicators around here, LOL.
We have gotten many good ideas from each other by sharing. Maybe in time you'll change your mind.
All the best!
leftyg
I saw your post yesterday when you mentioned this change of trend. Will you post a chart please, so we can see what your talking about?
Thanks!
Roy,
The box size choice is right under "chart attribute", then under "type" where you chose Renko.
You can either choose an ATR or Point.
Let us know what you come up with.
Blasher - or anyone
I have never been good at figuring odds. Tell me, if you take this renko chart and buy calls on the first white box, then sell and buy puts on the next red box, etc.....would you make money? It seems like the coin toss theory that has never made sense to me, but in the end it works out.
Farooq
You're welcome. Just note that the box size will change based on the ATR...and then the MAs will move. You can change the box size to a set price to make it more stable. I like that better and I think .12 works well for the QQQQ.
The QID/QLD would probably need a set price more in the .30 range. You can play around with it.
This is a great board. Thanks for sharing.
Yes stockcharts. You can read about them here.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:renko
Roy
I've been messing around with these new Renko charts and it got me to thinking about our trend discussion. I know you don't need it, but I thought it might be worthwhile for others.
The crossover of the MAs on this chart seems to get you in fairly early and keep you in the short term trend.
Looks like you're right. Signal has gone to cash. Waiting for it to give me a buy signal.
You're way ahead of me BE, nice job!
1 min chart went on a sell signal about 11:15
BE I hope you got out of longs. Nothing on this chart said it was safe yet.
BE
I have found RSI2 to be a good WARNING Signal.
I think Farooq shows a lot of wisdom with his 5 min 34 EMA chart. Read his post to Beerworld #51093. The price hasn't dropped below that 34 EMA YET, until it does, this is what lefty was talking about ... fighting the trend.
Just my humble opinion.
OT: From LA to NY on one gallon of gas
Roy,
Thank you for responding with such a well written and thought out answer. I appreciate the time you took to answer.
Ofcourse, whenever you have time.
Roy,
I know you directed these questions to smartone, but I am curious how you would answer them and what indicators lead you to your conclusion.
Thank you.