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TNXP TA thoughts 8/9/15 - Update
From last few days, I have been watching this stock closely. I am not quite happy with the stock movement in last few days, but it helped me to get a detail of what is going on. The whole bio sector had a nice drop last week ( You can look at IBB ). Next few days, I am hoping for serious turnaround on things for TNXP.
For those, who missed my previous analysis for this stock, here is the link:
TNXP TA thoughts 7/29/15 - Update
General Updates:
a) On daily chart, we are seeing resumption of buying. Whenever the price dropped down, what we saw is big players loading money. Institutional holdings have gone from 48.41% to 48.49% in last 1 week.
b) The trend line which we predicted in last write up didn’t hold. I had also stated profit taking zone around 8.7ish area. There were 2 reasons I predicted this movement – without the news, the interest among the public would be slightly lower. BB and Fib lines showed some resistance around the zone. On 8/3 recorded high was 8.68. So if people did take profits around this area congrats. I did also warn for pull back below 8.0ish area. If your stop losses got triggered, you have an opportunity to enter at lower price. I was hoping for 7.8 to provide some support, however, when IBB fell 3 points in matter of few minutes, MM did bring the ask/bid down. ( Remember MM’s also get paid in form of commissions for executing trades ). I wasn’t smart to sell it, but I did average the price down on Friday, and added at 7.21. If you look at intraday chart pasted below, you can see the areas where MM’s have played sensibly to drop the price down.
2 min chart
c) Weekly chart as I have said in the past, is still very bullish.
d) Immediate support points would be 7.2ish(very strong support) and 7.5ish (not so strong support). 7.8ish and 8.2ish will form immediate resistance zone.
My views:
The price as it stands today is favorable price to load this stock (and forget about this stock for a month’s time). With the release of data being imminent, this stock can climb to 9$ plus. I am looking to take some profits in 8.5$ zone. This area should be in watch, because any volume can make this stock climb to 9$ with ease.
Regarding the PPS movement, I would expect some consolidation to take place here if IBB continue to provide sharp drops. I am also expecting for a PR from the company. One thing you should keep in mind is that bottom is not yet formed as of today. Watch out monday’s price action, and what we need to see is a bullish indicator in daily chart.
Fundamental analysis, charts and my analysis favor consolidation to bullish movements (with bullish movements more likely in short term).
Overall, i believe this stock is low risk/high reward at this time.
One indicator I would like to cover is – Balance of Power indicator. This indicator typically shows if there is systematic accumulation or distribution. When used with certain other indicator can tell if big players are loading. I try to follow this trend considering less risk. Other technical indicators like RSI/stochastics/MA etc would be secondary. From last 3 days, I can see there is some buying by big players, and I would like to see improvement in PPS in coming days. One reason retail sector may not be sure whether to add a support is, because IBB broke MA50 for the first time since May, and they are still waiting for the confirmation that it is headed up. Incase IBB does drop, i hope institutional holders to load this stock and provide support.
Before signing off, I would like to repeat not to take my words for granted since I could be completely incorrect. Do your due diligence. Trade smart, and importantly learn from your past mistakes. Buy low and Sell high.
Daily chart
TNXP TA thoughts 8/9/15 - Update
From last few days, I have been watching this stock closely. I am not quite happy with the stock movement in last few days, but it helped me to get a detail of what is going on. The whole bio sector had a nice drop last week ( You can look at IBB ). Next few days, I am hoping for serious turnaround on things for TNXP.
For those, who missed my previous analysis for this stock, here is the link:
TNXP TA thoughts 7/29/15 - Update
General Updates:
a) On daily chart, we are seeing resumption of buying. Whenever the price dropped down, what we saw is big players loading money. Institutional holdings have gone from 48.41% to 48.49% in last 1 week.
b) The trend line which we predicted in last write up didn’t hold. I had also stated profit taking zone around 8.7ish area. There were 2 reasons I predicted this movement – without the news, the interest among the public would be slightly lower. BB and Fib lines showed some resistance around the zone. On 8/3 recorded high was 8.68. So if people did take profits around this area congrats. I did also warn for pull back below 8.0ish area. If your stop losses got triggered, you have an opportunity to enter at lower price. I was hoping for 7.8 to provide some support, however, when IBB fell 3 points in matter of few minutes, MM did bring the ask/bid down. ( Remember MM’s also get paid in form of commissions for executing trades ). I wasn’t smart to sell it, but I did average the price down on Friday, and added at 7.21. If you look at intraday chart pasted below, you can see the areas where MM’s have played sensibly to drop the price down.
2 min chart
c) Weekly chart as I have said in the past, is still very bullish.
d) Immediate support points would be 7.2ish(very strong support) and 7.5ish (not so strong support). 7.8ish and 8.2ish will form immediate resistance zone.
My views:
The price as it stands today is favorable price to load this stock (and forget about this stock for a month’s time). With the release of data being imminent, this stock can climb to 9$ plus. I am looking to take some profits in 8.5$ zone. This area should be in watch, because any volume can make this stock climb to 9$ with ease.
Regarding the PPS movement, I would expect some consolidation to take place here if IBB continue to provide sharp drops. I am also expecting for a PR from the company. One thing you should keep in mind is that bottom is not yet formed as of today. Watch out monday’s price action, and what we need to see is a bullish indicator in daily chart.
Fundamental analysis, charts and my analysis favor consolidation to bullish movements (with bullish movements more likely in short term).
Overall, i believe this stock is low risk/high reward at this time.
One indicator I would like to cover is – Balance of Power indicator. This indicator typically shows if there is systematic accumulation or distribution. When used with certain other indicator can tell if big players are loading. I try to follow this trend considering less risk. Other technical indicators like RSI/stochastics/MA etc would be secondary. From last 3 days, I can see there is some buying by big players, and I would like to see improvement in PPS in coming days. One reason retail sector may not be sure whether to add a support is, because IBB broke MA50 for the first time since May, and they are still waiting for the confirmation that it is headed up. Incase IBB does drop, i hope institutional holders to load this stock and provide support.
Before signing off, I would like to repeat not to take my words for granted since I could be completely incorrect. Do your due diligence. Trade smart, and importantly learn from your past mistakes. Buy low and Sell high.
Daily chart
Nope - nothing new. We need to wait for data release
Earnings should come with in 45 days of quarter end if I remember the rules - that means August 15 is due date. Based on history they tend release 1-2 days prior - so expect next week wed - Friday.
And on results, trails are expected to complete this month and results to be out in another week or 2. May be by August end - September beginning. Expecting ER report to talk about the same.
Watch for reversal symptoms here. I expect the same.. Suggest not to add anything more here. Let's see. Other strategy that would work is to sell some at 7.5ish level and see whether there is opp next week. Nothing to loose and smart way to average pps down.
Should get bounce at 7.2 ish levels
Lol - amazing call
Lol this is no penny stock..I am sure uplisting is in works
Appears TNXP bottom is found unless IBB drops towards 330ish level next week that could trigger consolidation at this levels. Still watching
AQXP new HOD
I am just watching to see where the bottom is.. Hence didn't update the charts despite the price going below 8$.
AMRN - fed court rules in favor - possibly headed to 2.4$ +. Last price 2.2$
Jembers - if IBB drops further - that too with volume, retail sector could short TNXP or lead them not to enter TNXP longs. This often leads to low volume with just darkpools. My opinion is to hold until you see a trend reversal. TNXP will rebound stronger in all possibilities. The only question is to see where the bottom is..
Guys wait for bottom - IBB taking big hit.. Will update with charts later today. This provides serious opportunity to make big money.
In my opinion we should see some strong rebound coming. Added more today.
Well appeared not to have hold MA200. I got out at 8.3ish earlier today. Important thing if you noticed is that it broke ma200 up and down quite easily this would mean that this stock can move up very easily through MA200. Below 7.75 will be your SL. And again things need not go as I saw. Because there are large group of people out there manipulating stocks.
There is your breakout!!
Can you please sticky post ongoing plays so that it's easy for us to see it?
RPRX breaks MA200 on third attempt - watching here
Have posted on 29th... You may refer to that...
I agree, need slight volume increase. I was hoping for wave 'c' continuation. So far wedge is being held. Imho we would start to move up in c
2-3 days.
I didn't post charts in ihub, I was using stocktwits to provide realtime updates. Tomorrow RPRX is on watch. Have my S/L below 7.75.
Nice call jbem. Added this morning at 7.8...
SNGX S1 out
SYN TA updated in SYN board
SYN TA thoughts 08/01/15 - Update
As requested here is TA update on this stock. As you may be aware, I try to do extensive DD from TA perspective, and also use various relevent indicators. I will also talk about different time frame charts, and would let you know on things you should be aware of. Please note that any news/ fundamental change in stock can effect the stock price.
General Updates:
a) This stock has shown symptoms of momentum breakout in last 1 year. As you may know, momentum indicators like RSI stochastics or MACD may be of little use, incase stock shows momentum breakout. Please look at marked area on chart to illustrate this. The pattern is more prominent in hourly chart.
b) Daily chart shows symptoms of bullish to consolidation to bearish movements. Allow me to explain here.
1) What we are possibly seeing here is the dark pool controlling the price. There is some nice selling going on by big players (investment managers/mutual funds/ other big funds). Much of the selling is coming from those who loaded this under 2.5$ till March 2015. This also would possibly explain the reason this stock is trading under tight price range after offering period was closed. Basically it is a war between small investment funds vs large players who wanted to control the price. In last two days, the selling seem to be reducing, which is nice for this stock. I haven’t been watching trading action for this stock close enough.
2) The daily chart also shows formation of nice trend line. The lower end of the trend line as it stands right now is 3.0ish zone. At this price, and point of time, any move below 3$ can be considered bearish short term. Move above 3.5 can be considered bullish movement ( if so 3.8$ area would be a nice profit zone to begin with ).
c) Hourly chart shows symptoms of bullish to consolidation pattern.
1) Hourly chart shows respecting fib arcs/fib fans levels nicely. We are on lower side of fib fan.
2) Possibly showing breakout pattern, with nice trend line support.
d) Weekly chart is very interesting. This also supports what I said earlier, that big players would try to sell around this area. Any move above 3.5 with volume will be very bullish move. We are on resistance zone.
My views:
We know recently SYN raised 45.9$ million in cash. The Company anticipates using the net proceeds from the offering to fund its clinical programs including Phase 2 clinical candidates, SYN-004 for the prevention of C. difficile and SYN-010 for the treatment of irritable bowel syndrome with constipation (IBS-C), research & development, potential licensing and acquisition of intellectual property, investments in and acquisition of complementary businesses or partnerships, and for general corporate purposes.
It doesn’t come as a surprise with lot of big players selling their position, considering it is a big resistance zone. They are playing it very smartly, because they loaded the stock when the price was at bottom. Now daily and hourly chart shows something that supports very bullish move in progress - Increase in volume many times , and big interest around this stock from retail side. Hourly chart also support formation of big move in next few days. ER is also around corner.
My opinion would be to watch this stock and play accordingly. Any move above 3.5 with volume, would result in very bullish moves, while below 3, can lead to pull back. This has to be watched closely. Volume is very significant as well which comes from small investors and retail side on one side, and tutes on other. Basically this stock is on breakout zone. We will see big momentum when breakout happens that would last for days.
Before signing off, I would like to repeat not to take my words for granted since I could be completely incorrect. Do your due diligence. Trade smart. Buy low and Sell high. Feel free to post your comments, thoughts or any criticisms.
Here are the charts.
Daily chart
Hourly chart
Weekly chart
Any thoughts on why company would take this arrangement instead of offering to raise capital?
"There is ‘change of sentiment’ visible in the chart formed today. The change of sentiment would go through tight price zone (yesterday today and another couple of days), before big players can make this stock bullish. I would explain about this more on this in future. "
On hourly chart what I saw was retail buys coming in and that made the price go up today. Tight price zone was broken today when the price steered to 8.4ish.
Can you also explain me in simple terms why wouldn't company go for public offering instead? Haven't heard a structure like this before ( pardon my ignorance here )..
TNXP TA quick update...
Price steered well into 8.4ish area. 8.2 area wouldn't act as support area logically speaking ( under low volume / with significant professional side interest )... Do watch 8.6ish - 8.75 area next week. If it reaches there on Monday or Tuesday more like it could go towards 9$.. Follow trend line here. .. Else we could see testing ma200 / trendline ( which I hope to be closing by then ).
What I don't understand here is what benefit would it give to company when they buy discounted shares and sell later, as opposed to public offering.. Still trying to understand the terms
Mort19 - could you also share your analysis ?
Appears dilution... :(
It will slowly go up. I am not much worried here. There is nice underlying current which will make this stock go up, and this is developing for moving up. Updated my trailing SL to 7.9...
Highly possible
Just broke 52 week high
"c) Intraday chart – You would see a nice trendline showing how bears have been riding this stock down. The breach of trend line with pps dropping above upper trendline should be considered end of ‘bears’. " - this line is from the old write up - do ignore it. Sorry.
TNXP TA thoughts 7/29/15 - Update
From last few days, I have been watching this stock closely. As you may be aware, I let you know what my strategy would be in the hope that someone may benefit and can apply to their present trading skills. I was hoping for bulls to take over today, however, it hasn’t happened yet. Next two days are going to be crucial for this stock. Based on what I see, we could likely see bullish movements from here on.
For those, who missed my previous analysis for this stock, here is the link:
TNXP TA thoughts 7/24/15 - Update
General Updates:
a) The daily shows bullish to consolidation symptoms.
b) We have a new trend-line formation as we predicted in our hourly chart. I have entered a new position at bottom trend-line today. Hourly chart hasn’t made up its mind on whether to go bearish or consolidate or go bullish here. This is a normal behavior when stop drops more than 20% in few days.
c) Intraday chart – You would see a nice trendline showing how bears have been riding this stock down. The breach of trend line with pps dropping above upper trendline should be considered end of ‘bears’.
d) Weekly chart as I have said in the past, is still very bullish.
f) Immediate support points would be 7.8ish(very strong support) and 8.0ish (not so strong support). This we have already established in the past. Lower trendline could act as solid support.
g) Following would be immediate resistance area for this stock – 8.4ish, 8.7ish and 9.0ish.
h) Now the question is where this stock moves to from the current PPS.
Points favoring consolidation:
1) Let us rewind couple of weeks, and ask ourselves what made this stock go up from 7.5$ to 9.89$ in span of 2 weeks. The answer would be POC, Form 4 and seeking alpha articles…. With the offering, TNXP is ready to proceed with their next trails. Before the offering price, TNXP was trading around 8.2-8.5$ (consolidation zone ). Hence this could be treated as consolidation range.
2) Above point also highlights that this stock likes news update from TNXP team.
Points favoring bullish Movements:
1) This stocks likes to leave some footprints telling the possible future movements. One such footprint is formation of ‘patterns’. TNXP just love making and breaking patterns. I have drawn on hourly chart, a triangular pattern.
2) This stock is very impatient ( i.e volatile ). It just likes to move around. Considering we had a 20% drop, the chances that bears dominate here is slimmer.
3) There is big drop in selling pressure, as you may witnessed in last 2 days. This also would mean, the volume would be lower than last week, but 'significant'.
4) Anticipation of +ve trail results.
My views:
7.75 – 8.00 still remains nice loading zone in opinion. Basically I am looking to load near the lower trendline. Whenever PPS moves around 8.7$, I would be watching the action closely, and may opt to sell some shares.
Fundamental analysis, charts and my analysis favor consolidation to bullish movements (with bullish movements more likely in short term).
We saw lower trendline being tested multiple times, and trendline is still holding our PPS. I cannot say the stock can move 10% or 20% in next few days, but I hope this stock to be hovering around this pattern. Basically, I am play this stock according to charts at this stage. Any move below 7.75 would be bearish, so that would be my stop loss position.
There is ‘change of sentiment’ visible in the chart formed today. The change of sentiment would go through tight price zone (yesterday today and another couple of days), before big players can make this stock bullish. I would explain about this more on this in future.
Overall, i believe this stock is low risk/high reward at this time. Any news around this stock would make it climb to 9$.
Before signing off, I would like to repeat not to take my words for granted since I could be completely incorrect. Do your due diligence. Trade smart, and importantly learn from your past mistakes. Buy low and Sell high. In the coming days, I would slowly introduce other indicators I look for, to predict some movements.
Hourly chart