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RE: Tinker industrialisation
Exactly Tinker I totally agree!
Industrialisation is the keyword for AM processes.
With serial production of high quality parts in aviation, production systems have to comply the special demands of this sector:
Continuous production
Guaranteed quality
Guaranteed speed
Little downtime on service or adjustments
In-house service and repair on a 24 hour basis
Some quotes:( see link below)
The problem they attempt to solve is, how can additive manufacturing, an infamously tricky process to master, be made to produce quantities of parts repeatably, day in and day out?
With this new production cell, Airbus and GKN Aerospace intend to prove that AM is capable of full-scale production as an alternative to producing the part subtractively, machined from a forged blank.
From a GKN Aerospace point of view, this part is going to push the technology almost to its limits. We’re going for high volume parts, the highest volumes in Airbus aircraft [42 A320s roll on to the runway every month]
Provided GKN Aerospace is awarded the contract, and that the part produced can be approved by Airbus, and assuming they both succeed in getting it qualified to fly by civil aviation authorities, GKN Aerospace would add this cell’s output to its monthly consignments of A320 failsafe brackets.
Initially, most of the brackets would be made the tried-and-tested way, machined from a forged part. As AM part production ramps up, GKN Aerospace would reduce its conventional manufacturing volumes
That’s not all; the team also discovered that parts made in the Arcam machine can perform even better than cast and forged parts, in terms of fatigue life. “So far, for all of the materials we have got [in the project], electron beam melting produces the highest performing parts of all,”
http://www.machinery.co.uk/machinery-features/airbus-and-gkn-aerospace-have-both-together-and-separately-developed-metal-additive-manufacturing-processes-to-an-advanced-stage-their-sights-are-now-set-on-flight-qualifying-a-part-as-will-dalrymple-reports/110930
What draw my attention in the conference call:
In the 27th minute:
In answer to the question about system advancements, the answer was that building speed and accuracy has no first priority.
Industrialisation of the process for continuus production is the first priority. For example to make the systems more robust.
I think I have understood what he meant:
You need different system qualifications when you are producing large series of the same product, compared to small series or single products in every building cycle.
We have read about it in the partnership announcement with GKN as well.
With continuous use, knowing the high chamber temperatures, I can imagine calibration is often needed.
Building under vacuum and these high temperatures could cause failures of the seals.
With what I have read earlier, heating up of the production chamber, and cooling down of it takes longer than the building time of the products!
I suppose the next generation EBM System is a production line with multiple chambers, all connected.
In my believe the first step would be a connected cooling-down chamber
Additive Industries has a system like that, a connected stress relief unit (needed with SLM production)
http://additiveindustries.com/Industrial-am-systems/Metalfab1
http://www.gkn.com/media/News/Pages/GKN-Aerospace-agrees-strategic-%E2%80%98additive-manufacturing%E2%80%99-partnership-with-Arcam.aspx
In many ways Arcam is my kind of business:
A wonderful tecnology, protected by patents.
Not the biggest player in the market, but a niche player, very strong in a selective market.
The company is growing fast, without generating lots of debt.
Cash position is good, margins are good, net income is growing within boundaries.
The company is expanding production capacity, but still every system build is sold in advancement.
R&D is well supported by national government and the European community.
R&D is isn't burning all profits.
Management is flexible and willing to move / bend with the demand of each market that is interested in using EBM systems.
Management is straight forward, no fairytales, no predictions or promises that are out of reality.
30% growth YOY is more than 370% after five years
Imo one of the best companies to invest in fot the coming five years
Swedish metal 3D printing expert Arcam sees big growth in 2015
A nice article, it reflects my personal opinion.
http://www.3ders.org/articles/20160208-swedish-metal-3d-printing-expert-arcam-sees-big-growth-in-2015.html
This growth has also led to significant changes in the company’s infrastructure, with a new UK office opening in Warwick, and another in Woburn, Massachusetts. A new 3D printer production center also opened its doors in Mölndal, Sweden, doubling their production capacity. A new US-based marketing organization also opened its doors over the last year. Arcam’s financial situation is also in excellent shape, with Oppenheimer Funds buying a large holding in Arcam and 1.8 million new shares being launched. “After those transactions we have a new ownership structure and a very strong cash position. At the end of the third quarter we had approximately 452.9 MSEK in cash. The strong balance sheet provides financial stability that is much appreciated by the large clients we work with in long term projects,” René argues.
All this growth was also reflected in a strong fourth quarter (sales increase of 28%), which led to excellent overall results. “We reached net sales of 576.1 MSEK and an operating profit of 50.2 MSEK for the full year. Sales increased by 70% and operating profit increased by 131%. During the year we booked 58 new EBM orders, an increase of 38% compared with the previous year. We enter 2016 with an order book of 27 systems,” the CEO says. Things are, in short, looking fantastic for Arcam, which is becoming a very important player in the global metal 3D printing market.
Year- End Report 2015
Strong growth and significant investments
Net sales increased by 70% to 576.1 (339,0) MSEK
Operating income increased by 50.2 (21.7) MSEK
(including non-recurring costs of approximately 0 (9.3) MSEK)
Net income amounted to 24.3 (57.7) MSEK
(including tax effects for 2014 of 15.8 MSEK
Earnings per share increased to 1.18 (3.10) SEK
50 (35) EBM systems were delivered during the period
Order intake amounted to 58 (42) EBM systems
For the fourth quarter:
Sales increased by 28% to 176.0 (137.1) MSEK
Operating income amounted to 14.0 (15.3) MSEK
Net income increased to 2.7 (15.8) MSEK
Order intake increased by 29 (21) systems
16 (15) EBM systems were delivered in the fourth quarter
Not a quote
It's a "suppose that"
tomorrow you might call it a "wish it was"
It is my explanation of "little do we know", and that is mainly because most of the big companies that are buying AM systems wants to stay ahead of their competitors in implementation of new / better production systems.
Maybe GE has an agreement with Arcam; a reservation for 10 systems every 6 months?
Suppose this is true, do you think anyone will tell us?
Thks guys, our estimations are close,
I hope the truth isn't far away.
My estimated 80 systems at that time was a wild guess.
And a sneeky way tot start this discussion.
And still, it is a possibility.
“We did have more multiple orders in the fourth quarter, we were asked not to make it public until this report. And in respect to these customers, the company names involved will follow later this year”
Thanks for the corrections "Flash"
i.m.o. A very realistic estimation
A wild guess, there is little we know
With what we know about GE; their decision to choose for EBM in actual production of a small selection of engine parts and brackets.
In my opinion others (Safran P&W, GKN, Boeing, Airbus, Alcoa) will follow within two years.
Probably some of them are waiting for an advanced EBM system (a combination with SLM for the finishing touch?)
There is little we know about new developments in production, re-design of parts, choises made in quality / costs in the aviation business because there is a lot of competition.
All lips are sealed.
In my believe, within two years, SLM is used for 70% in AM, other systems 30% .
Probably Arcam EBM (advanced) systems could take a big chunck of that 30%.
A wild guess; 20 to 40 systems for all of the mentioned aero companies, and other turbine producers (Siemens etc.)
My estimation for 2015:
In this business the 4th quarter is in general the best quarter in system sales.
(See Arcam 2014, SLM Solutions group, etc)
And when I take a look at the graphics, it looks logical to expect sales of 50 to 70 systems for 2015.
With what we know of the sales in the first three quarters, 70 systems sold is not really possible because multiple system sales would have been made public.
Our focus is on aviation, but the orthopaedic sector is also still growing, and advanced EBM construction parts are used in many more sectors.
So 55 to 60 systems sold is a good estimation.
For me, a long term investor, the numbers sold in 2015 are not that important.
40, 50 or 60 in 2015?
More important is what 2016 and 2017 will do.
Is the technology well accepted or not? Is EBM often the right choice?
My guess is 200+ systems in 2017
300+ systems in 2018
http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2015/12/13/qdspxarcam_sales.png
http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2015/12/13/lnrfcarcam_sales_YOY.png
Thanks Chalie. Finally an indication for a price per system.
Ih ve been looking for days to find the selling prices with no actual results.
So my estimation was at least 100% lower than actual?
So analists of Remium are expecting less than 40 systems sold for 2015?
Do they know the actual selling price per system?
Do they know what GE is paying per system?
My conclusion: we know very little about the company's financials, because the company it not willing to share it with us.
The company has stopped sharing new sales with us.
So in fact we are kept blind in knowledge for the sales over 2015, and the revenues.
All we have is knowledge over the proces quality of EBM, its chances and its threads.
Not much more than a SWOT-analysis of a company we do not really know?!
In fact we don't even know what the costprice is of an EBM produced part, and in relation what the costprice is of the same SLM produced part.
I am happy to know lots of qualities of the different technologies in the am field, and I really see lots of chances (in a specific market) for Arcam with EBM.
I have lots of expectations of fastebm / highpower ebm / mulibeam ebm / etc. because the technology in not mature yet.
But without that the company is shaded with gray, lots of rumors and expectations, and no facts that will support any investor to invest.
I am confinced this company has a great future, and is well worth investing for the coming years, but at this moment, and for the last year, the leadership of the company has not given me any sign my estimations are worth investing.
I.m.o Remium is on the downside of net sales.
Sales price of one system is more than 250.000 USD (correct me if I'm wrong), equals 2.210.000 SEK
Suppose 70 systems sold
Revenue for service contracts 500.000 USD
Net income for AP&C 1.000.000 USD
Totals 168 million SEK
This is close to the estimated 177,5 million SEK
Nobody knows, but I still expect sales of 75 to 80 systems
http://www.aniwaa.com/product/3d-printers/arcam-q20/
RE Tinker Why EBM?
This is the opinion of Zenth Technica a pure EBM manufacturer (4 systems)
http://zenithtecnica.com/#home-section-4
http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2016/2/5/kiwjwzenth_technica.jpeg
RE pdb2 Siemens
When you see in the video (the maquette) that they are shifting 10 to 12 systems around (mainly EOS and SLM Solutions equipment), than it sounds to me logical they also need one or two EBM machines to start with.
Siemens 3d metal printing Sweden
Siemens invests EUR 21.4M to open first metal 3D printing facility in Sweden
http://www.3ders.org/articles/20160203-siemens-enters-industrial-metal-3d-printing-production-with-first-metal-am-facility-in-sweden.html
SLM Solutions to begin metal powder production
http://www.ipmd.net/news/003761.html
Webinar Honeywell Aerospace / EBM
In this Webinar, you’ll hear firsthand from Honeywell Aerospace experts on the advantages additive manufacturing provided Honeywell for development of metal components made from the nickel-based superalloy Inconel 718.
Honeywell officially used Inconel 718 and electron beam melting to make the first Aerospace component which was an experimental design of an existing tube used on its HTF7000 engine. Don and Brian will explain how this process holds the promise of reducing manufacturing costs by 50 percent and dramatically reducing production / delivery time.
http://www.techbriefs.com/component/content/article/ntb/webcasts/upcoming-webinars/23835
SLM Solutions: joint venture with powder producer TLS Technik GmbH
LÜBECK (IT-Times) - Der deutsche 3D-Druckerhersteller SLM Solutions Group AG hat bekanntgegeben, mit der PKM Future Holding GmbH zusammenarbeiten zu wollen.
http://www.4investors.de/php_fe/index.php?sektion=stock&ID=99921
Why is this posted again by Tuan?
https://twitter.com/ttranpham
Application Engineers needed in the UK (for Arcam)
http://www.tctmagazine.com/jobs/application-engineers-arcam/
Long Arcam and short DDD
My porto is very happy with this combination
http://shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=ddd
http://shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=amavf
Ignore Stratasys Ltd.: Here Is 1 Better Stock
Motley Fool
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/02/ignore-stratasys-ltd-here-is-1-better-stock.aspx
But still, every single printer sale in a competive market is a confirmation that there is a niche market for EBM in advanced metal production, and in many sectors.
No company spends that amount of money for a new production process if they do not have securities the new process will gain money for the company.
For example:
Stryker will buy 2 or three printers (to start with)
Airbus will buy five or more systems
Siemens, GKN, Pratt & W, Boeing, Alcoa, etc.
We are all waiting for FAStEBM, or LARGEEBM, it could make the difference, but still EBM has a well deserved spot in a niche market of AM
A sale of a single printer is not shared with the press, not even with us
A sale of two printers isn't shared
In my believe, at this moment, more than 70% of the parts (for serial production) printed for aircrafts / rockets are done by SLM because SLM delivers a better quality.
It is expensive, but with a new production method you don't want to take any risk.
It's what we have seen in the past with over-dimensioning in strength (i.e. security factors for bridges 100% overdimensioned)
SLM is a finer proces of AM than EBM; a tiny faillure in the production-proces has less impact than the same tiny faillure in EBM production.
We choose for the best, and we will control every production step. Later when we know all do's and dont's we will decide what is good enough to do the job.
In my opinion, at this moment EBM in aviation is accepted as the best solution for 5 to 10 percent of the printable parts (fear for failures) but when quality control is guaranteed,then price / quality counts.
And by far EBM is then in favour.
So, sales of more than two printers at once won't be common, but I do believe we will sell lots of single printers in the future, because this production technique is welcome (price / quality) in a lot of sectors.
No wishful thinking
There are chances enough, see Stryker new factory, Airbus in Filton; new center for engineering and design, GKN, etc.
http://3dprint.com/117456/stryker-3d-printing-facility/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/airbus-to-build-70m-business-park-2252937.html
Aerospace takes to additive manufacturing
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/aerospace-takes-to-additive-manufacturing/
SLM: Tire Technology Expo 2016: Selective Laser Melting (SLM®) für neue Reifenformsegmente
http://stage.slm-solutions.com/index.php?news-recent_de
Mit der Quad Laser-Technologie (4x 400 W) und der patentierten bi-direktionalen Beschichtung erreichen diese Anlagen eine Steigerung der Aufbaurate um bis zu 90 % gegenüber der Twin-Konfiguration (2x 400 W).
Means: 90% faster than the older system!
FDA Approval For Bioarchitects’ 3-D Printed Titanium Cranial Plate - See more at: http://www.odtmag.com/contents/view_breaking-news/2016-01-28/fda-approval-for-bioarchitects-3-d-printed-titanium-cranial-plate/#sthash.1vPTTENX.dpuf
Sigma labs and Materialise are working closely together in building THE superior software for AM production systems.
Collecting production data, translating the data tot product qualities, finding the failures in settings, trap these failures and find a way to correct / prevent these failures, recognise these failures in future production data / find a way to correct the data to optimized data.
Measure all data during the production process (feed back) and automaticly correct the data for the next cycle of production (self learning)
Store all data of the production cycle for certification of the production process.
A lot of work and investment in data and money.
There is not one set of designing software for AM, There is not one production system. There is not one production material.
In my believe; risky business to invest in.
AM investors / psychology / expected sentiment
What I see and hear in Europe, many investors in “3D printing” have very little knowledge of the diversty in AM and its sub-markets.
Most of them see it as a one market with many opportunities, are not aware of the differences (risks / opportunities) of the sub-markets (professional plastic printing – desktop plastic printing – professional metal printing – etc.)
Most of them are focussed on DDD and Stratasys, and non of them have ever heard of Carbon 3D or the CLIP technology.
In the coming year I expect a lot of frustration of these investors:
Most of them are invested in DDD and SSYS, and they still believe both companies will ......+++++
Suppose within 6 months it is obvious that Carbon 3D is recognized as the winner in the plastic AM market.
DDD will probably announce it will transform to a pure metal and ceramics printing company.
Etc.
Probably within six months all investors are aware of the submarkets in AM:
Metal / ceramics is hot.
Bio-printing is hot.
Plastics is not.
I believe the hype cycle for metal printing starts in about six months. (Arcam, Voxeljet, SLM, etc)
Build speed build rate SLM/EBM
Arcam Q10 max 80 cm3 / hour
SLM 280HL max 35 cm3 / hour
http://www.multistation.com/ARCAM-226
http://www.stage.slm-solutions.com/index.php?slm-280_en
LBM versus EBM
Slideshow, very educating.
See load tme EBM for cooling; 8 hours! (LBM = 2 hours)
New systems with inside transport to cooling chamber after production??
http://www.slideshare.net/carstenengel/selective-laser-melting-versus-electron-beam-melting
LPT1, 2, 3: It's all about price / quality.
We all know that production by SLM will give better product qualities than production by EBM.
(accuracy and Surface finish)
The production time of SLM is approximately 100% longer than EBM.
Productivity has a direct relation with the price per produced product.
What will the costprice per blade be produced by EBM versus SLM?
Costs are: machining time; the costs of the used production system per time unit.base material, power, inert gases (when needed). handling(hands), finishing, quality control,
Suppose, when produced by EBM, the percentages of the total cost per product are:
machining time 68%, base material 20%, power 5%, handling 5%, finishing and quality control 2%.
When produced by SLM, most of the costs are the same, eccept for the machining time, that is doubled!
So producing by SLM is roughly 68% more expensive.
In my believe, within the quality limits EBM is the first choice.
When product-quality demands are out of the limits of EBM, SLM will be the next choice.
For example take a look at Linear Mold & engineering.
A big player in 3D printing, they do a lot of prototyping, very small series of products.
All what they use is DMLS and SLM systems (the best quality / everyting is possible).
Companies that that use AM for larger series have EBM systems as well (limited in quality, but the price is much better)
SLM / EBM
http://image.slidesharecdn.com/828a36d1-9eed-46e3-8606-ff3293422d08-141223034123-conversion-gate01/95/selective-laser-melting-versus-electron-beam-melting-17-638.jpg?cb=1419327770
Linear Mold & Engineering
http://www.3ders.org/articles/20151204-moog-buys-stake-in-metal-3d-printing-firm-linear-mold-and-engineering.html
Moog / linear Mold
http://www.3ders.org/articles/20160113-moog-us-air-forces-contract-to-advance-launch-vehicle-booster-tech-metal-3d-printing.html
Re: Mauser
Dear Mauser, I share your opinion.
But there are risks as well.
For example; DDD and Stratasys are (for the moment) strong players in plastic printing.
Suppose a new company is born, a new proces, and prints 25 tot 100 times faster! (Carbon 3D)
When a part of your company is going out of business, you are putting more effort in the remaining parts.
Both companies are working hard to improve the metal printing division.
The other risks are new start-ups in metal printing.
For example:
Toshiba
http://www.3ders.org/articles/20151125-toshiba-to-unveil-metal-3d-printer-that-is-10-times-faster-than-competitors.html
Xjet
http://www.3ders.org/articles/20151109-xjet-to-develop-worlds-first-direct-3d-metal-printing-jetting-system.html
It is good to see Arcam is working hard on new improvements (with the help of the Swedish Goverment, universities, and the European Comunity)
RE:Dunwoody Joe Superalloy
Excellent post DJ
ATI is working on the production of this superalloy
http://3dprint.com/74000/ati-nickel-based-superalloy/
RE: Mauser commercialization
Excellent post, and I totally agree.
EOS is working with laser sintering for twenty years.
Arcam was founded in 1997.
EBM has a lot of similarities with Laser sintering, so many steps in building the perfect technology were skipped (copy-paste).
90% of the energy / money Arcam has invested, is spend on what differantiates them from the other technologies.
Laser sintering is in the forth inning, but with a lot of competition, and nobody knows who will win this competition.
EBM is probably in the third inning, in a different sport, and with little competition.
Best news resource on AM
After 2 years of gathering information, my opinion is that Tuan Tranpham gives us the best update on the development of the 3D printing market, and with a special focus on EBM.
Because he is a member of the Arcam staff, he will not bring the latest company news, so you have to read between the lines.
Articles in Capitals have a direct relation with EBM.
https://twitter.com/ttranpham
RE: tinker, 3D nesting
Google on 3D nesting, here one example
http://www.moldmakingtechnology.com/articles/reimagining-implants
Construction parts?
What I mean with construction parts:
As you know every car has a frame / chassis, so has an airplane (and the smaller version; drone).
This frame is build out of hundreds of different parts, bigger parts and smaller parts.
The most crucial parts are in places where main body-parts are connected:
Wing-body, engine-wing, ailerons-body, etc.
For example the engine is connected to the wing with brackets (will probably 3D printed very soon)
When you take a look at those airplane frames, you will understand what I mean.
http://www.hunterverein.com/userfiles/downloads/huntercutaway.png
I know that Messier-Bugatti-Dowty (Safran) is working on 3D printed parts for the landing gear of several planes.
http://www.safran-group.com/company/messier-bugatti-dowty