Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Talking about India, if one gets a chance, the book "Behind the Beautiful Forevers" by a Pulitzer prize-winning writer from the New Yorker is a must read. It will jolt one's soul to the core.
Jammy, I'm just curious. Do you own this stock ?
Not a chance. Can a hyena become vegetarian ?
Yes.
I laughed.
At your post.
Senti, I have this recurring thought. Could it be possible that they are seeing complete tumor remission in the alive patients ? Could this be the reason for allowing the data to mature? Could this be the "homerun" that LP was referring to ?
https://molecular-cancer.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12943-017-0597-8
"MSCs have been implicated in the promotion of tumour growth in numerous cancer types such as follicular lymphoma [24], head and neck carcinoma [25], glioma [34], breast [26], gastric [35], colon [36] and prostate cancer [27]."
Could LP be pushing for conditional approval for all cancers with mesenchymal subtypes ? Or is that too far out on left field ?
Smokey, thanks very much for introducing us to MESO (another cell therapy company) a few months ago. I looked into it, liked it, and bought it :). Fast track for aGVHD last week and RMAT designation today for chronic heart failure. Early Christmas present. Now I can wait for a belated Christmas gift from LP in Q1 :)
Cheers !
Some closing thoughts to taunt the shorts:
Point 1:
Potential market in US: 30,000 patients
Let's say market penetration by 2020: 50%
Price per treatment: $120K
Revenues: $1.8B in US alone.
Ex-US: add 50%
Total revenue: $2.7B (for GBM)
Current sales multiples for cell therapies: 7 times revenues for 2020 estimates.
Market cap: 18.9B
Share price: $20.32
If you own 50,000 shares, value = $1,016,000
If you own 100,000 shares, value = 2,032,000
Point 2:
CAR-T therapies are being approved with phase 2 results.
DCVax-Direct + Keytruda will show blow out results.
2019 top line; 2020 approval.
Make your own estimates on the revenues :)
Have a good night.
And what exactly have you learned from these investigations?
The last stock compensation to Cognate is a good scenario for stockholders given that everybody is still waiting for news. Much has been said already about the bullish signal it sends. Cognate goes down with NWBO if the trial fails. You can continue to rehash the same arguments all you want.
The fact is that securities laws provide for certain protections for shareholders. One of them is the requirement for an annual audit by external auditors. I know that they pay close attention to related-party transactions. The other is quarterly reporting to the SEC that will make them liable for any wrongdoings. For now we can only go with those assurances. Yet you prefer to ignore those and prefer to act like a lynch mob with "lock her up" type pronouncements.
A nine digit number can run between 100M and 999.99M. So it's not a ballpark. So be more specific.
Raising capital in 2018 shouldn't have any tax implications. However, NWBO should have approximately (I'm doing a rough guess) $800M in tax loss carryforwards which they can use to offset future income. This will also be a sweetener for any potential acquirer.
Agreed !!
I read it and it doesn't say it.
I have an hypothesis, though not entirely new, but a slight variant of what's already been discussed.
The 8-k stated something to the effect that they are "continuing to collect data". So data is being collected. Blinded or unblinded we don't know. LP has access to blinded data. But the FDA could be collecting unblinded data directly through the CRO/DMC. There is a possibility that LP could also be looking at unblinded data because frankly (and please correct me if I'm wrong), is there really a concern about the placebo effect more than 1 year after the last patient has been treated? The trial is not recruiting anymore. Normally she would have an obligation to disclose unblinded data, but what if the FDA is the one asking for data to mature because of the cross-over confoundment? I feel there is definitely a behind-the-scenes dialogue with the FDA. They just approved Avastin today and for what benefit? They better be cutting some slack for NWBO. LP has to do the capital raise because she does not know when our speedy (pardon the pun) FDA will actually make a decision. Also getting the Direct Phase II restarted and starting the DCVax-Opdivo combo trial is now a priority in the unlikely event of something negative happening.
My much vaunted patience is beginning to fray. Now I need to buy another 100K just to keep up with the dilution.
Didn't Gilead pay 12 big ones for Kite, with no approved drug? The FDA approval came several weeks later.
Thanks Vator. That was the point I was making to Mr. Aboobmove. NWBO has little or no debt. If the IP was sold in the event of a bankruptcy, we shareholders will still come out ahead. There are so many companies wishing to be in the IO space. That's how ridiculously low is the current stock price.
Okay, forget the comparison. Do you think there is no residual value to NWBO ?
Just a thought here. The reason the share price is in an upward trend, I think, is because of the payment of dues to Cognate in shares rather than cash. In the event of a bankruptcy, Cognate has a higher priority than share holders. Let's say that if DCvax-L fails, there is still some value in Direct and that will be enough to compensate Cognate. Remember that Dendreon was bought out for about $400M when they announced bankruptcy. The fact that Linda has chosen to take shares is frankly a hugely bullish sign. Another subtle message so to speak.
Nevermind.
It's called "on-a-fully-dilutive" basis. Let's say there is news tomorrow and the stock runs up to $10 (which is what most of us are hoping for). Then all these warrant holders will or may want to exercise and the company will be compelled to issue shares for those warrants. Another example, let's say there is a buyout tomorrow at $3B. All of us shareholders will have to split that $3B with the warrant holders.
It's a trade off between what reasonable amount you can get now versus what you think it may be worth 5 or 10 years down the road along with all the execution risks over that timeframe.
Since you're asking for opinions, here are mine:
The FDA is already looking into it, and I think Linda wants the FDA to speak first. Something seems imminent.
And, Gilead will buy NWBO before October is out. That's why they're hanging on to their pile of money - waiting just like the rest of us. Buyout for $6B. :)
Shares issued as of June 30, 2017 = 237M
Potential dilutive effect of outstanding warrants = 120M (see footnote 8 of the 10Q)
Total potential issued = 357M.
But I'm assuming some or most of those warrants may not get exercised.
Here's my take: market cap = $50M. Price per share = 0.25
Shares outstanding = $50M/0.25 = 200M shares.
Marc 2017 10-Q states 185M shares issued. So I'm presuming 15M of warrants were exercised in the most recent quarter. Warrants issued during the first quarter was 53M. Warrants issued in prior periods I'm approximating at around 40M. Does anyone know how many were issued in Q2 ? As someone said, there is no way to say how many will get exercised.
So, fully diluted shares on news: range = 200M to approx. 350M.
Fidelity is now offering 39.5% to borrow NWBO shares.
I still tend to believe in the following possibility (previously espoused by Sentiment):
The DMC recommended am early halt to the study based on observed efficacy, as early as last year.
Linda refused to accept the recommendation. She has previously gone on record that she wanted the trial to go to completion. Various reasons on why she may want to do this have been discussed here in the past.
DMC shares information with the FDA, or FDA maybe asked for information from the DMC (remember the "extensive regulatory filings" sentence in their 10Q) ?
FDA decided to wait till required events have occurred. If 248 events have occurred of late, then the FDA probably already has this information.
I believe that the next announcement that we get from the company is that DCVax-L has been approved (isn't there a precedence for this, as posted by someone several months ago?). No need for top line, bottom line, data analysis, formal filing for approval.
Just another opinion. Go ahead and bash me - fire away :)
Reason and AF are like oil and water; they don't go together.
Fidelity wants to borrow my NWBO shares. This is the email I got today. I'm amused they consider me a high-net-worth client :). I guess they believe I will become one soon :) :)
Hello Mr.____,
I would like to make you aware of a unique opportunity that Fidelity offers to our high net-worth clients. Attached is some information on Fidelity’s Fully Paid Lending Program. The program helps clients potentially add incremental income to their portfolios by entering into a direct securities lending relationship with Fidelity. I have attached a document which describes how that program works but in essence, in a “fully-paid” transaction, you lend a specific security (or securities) to Fidelity. In return, you receive collateral in the form of cash and securities held at a custodial bank independent of Fidelity. In addition, you receive an interest rate–based fee which is calculated by multiplying the agreed upon interest rate by the market value of the securities on loan. The fee accrues daily and is automatically credited monthly to your Fidelity account.
Currently, the following positions and rates could apply:
NWBO – 15%
Please let me know if you are interested in learning more about the program.
I'm sorry bro. You haven't been keeping up with the discussions>
Recommended reading for you: Flipper and Senti posts over the past few months.
The info arm is the only data out there that gives an idea about whether p3 will succeed or fail. Yes, it's not indicative of what will actually happen. But it is data. What do you have? Only speculation and running rings around and around. Yes, I read the 10Ks and 10Qs religiously. That's why I'm still invested and still buying.
As for the TOS, yes, I'm fully aware of the risk of getting booted from IHub. But I can live with that. Unfortunately for you, IHub seems to be your livelihood.
I know you will come back with time-wasting arguments; so be aware that I don't have time for that.
Look who is being silly :) :)
Yes, there is only one truth. And opinion does not equal truth.
opinion: a view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge
Agreed. Let's not get silly. You said:
Okay, good :) I'm glad that we clarified that. So your statements are indeed opinions; not facts. They almost always appears to be desperate attempts to push them as facts. As for bear arguments being stronger, they are based on speculation. The information arm is real data. That's the only point I was making. Thanks for the super fast response :)
In the spirit of full disclosure, you should consider ending all your posts with "all this is purely speculative".
Yes, some of the long views are also speculative. But are you saying the information arm is a lie too?
That's right Adam. But you should take credit where credit is due, since you are the one providing the entertainment :)
Not really sure. But I remember they would talk about the same rationale, that it would help enrollment. And it was widely understood that the OS of 4 months would have been much better if not for the crossover.
Just as a reminder to everyone, the FDA approved Provenge with a crossover of the control arm. This was built into the trial and SPA. So there is precedence to this. I don't understand why this is still such a big concern.