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FONR scanner sales
Per their 10-K recognize the sales on a percentage-of-completion basis. When I was looking into the company in the $9's I assumed they had been gradually booking the revs for those orders. Could be wrong--I would have to go back and compare the numbers from their medical equipment sub before and after. I was giving the medical equipment sub a $0 value so I didn't look into it too closely.
FONR makes you wonder if they pushed expenses forward to make their numbers
GV That is a nice catch hweb. I really don't like the sound of that d-word being thrown around in a discussion of GV's industry.
FONR well the idea is that the last Q didn't change much, unless you give them full credit for reducing SGA by 27% in one Q, saving over $1.3M. I don't understand how that's possible with accurate accounting. So basically the entire rally in FONR has been PE expansion, or change of sentiment.
I went back and their SGA does fluctuate quite a bit, but never this much. I wouldn't be surprised if SGA returns to normal and they report earnings in the $.30 range next Q. Then again the stock price has been detached from reality since about the $13s so who knows.
Id be careful with that kind of strategy. A lot of copy cats have gotten killed this year. See AIQ, SUNE, ZINC..not to mention KERX and MU, better to invest in situations you understand.
Wade if I were you I'd stop watching the daily price fluctuations - it's a play on next q earnings anyways
FONR too strong, covered -- no opinion on where it goes from here
unfortunate timing for a short as october is shaping up to be quite nice with the optimism about FED rate increase delay
FONR could be an interesting short here in the 13.5s, based on my reading of the tea leaves. It's never held this level for long, and Q4 was not especially great. Then again I am probably a little biased because I watched the stock get sold indiscriminately for the prior 2 months. I started a short, but I am playing with peanuts compared to many here.
UVE
UVE scares me. Does anyone understand why their ROE is so high? They must be taking big risks and I would be worried that they are under-reserving. Look what happened to UIHC after 1 bad season. If UVE were to fall to the same price to book the share price would be under $10. It does have some nice momentum though.
It's weird to me for these guys to be up so much when there is a cat 1 hurricane over the Bahamas. I guess the models say it should turn north but these things can be unpredictable.
If you buy cheap companies and hold into earnings (or news) I think you can make money. If you buy after earnings and expect to profit off of bull market optimism/liquidity intra-quarter, I would be worried that the bull market is over, or at least in temporary decline. If you notice this is how SSK has been making money (i.e. holding into news).
BTW wade you are not alone. See Lsig's latest post or 2 at reminiscencesofastockblogger.com -- The buy-after-news-and-soak-up-bull-market-liquidity strategy has not been working for the last several months
UIHC acquisition
Pretty neutral on this one. According to the PR the purchase price is about 1.4x book, probably a roughly fair price for a 100 year old insurer, and it's all cash. I get that they are expanding aggressively, but I would rather see them buy back their own stock at 1.25x book.
Shouldn't affect Q3 which in my estimation should be good. I don't know if anyone noticed, but in the Q&A of the last CC they said as of Aug 3rd their cat losses for Q3 were in line with reserves. So it seems likely they may not have a large charge against earnings like they did in the last 2 q's. Remember that the losses in the last 2 q's were due to winter storms in the NE (snowfall record) and the rain this spring, specifically Texas (80% of the Q2 cat loss - nationwide May rain total was also a record). Also, they had "very elevated losses" in their Florida operation that was cleared up part way through Q2. I think if we see EPS in the .4s with 20+% growth the stock should at least get a pop. Hopefully by November the market improves. I'm holding off on purchases to see where we go this October.
GL all
Note: this post is not investment advice - do your own research
whoa did SSK just make a post without saying it is only his opinion???
personal account
If GV goes into the 1.5s i'd consider putting my entire PA in it
GV -- a quick point
I think the chances of another issue popping up - similar to the one GV had 3 quarters ago, stretching into Q2 - is being overestimated. One has to separate the Texas issue ($10.1M in 3 quarters, now complete) from the other issues (roughly $3M+ total over 3 years). Even if you assume they continue to have suprise "issues" of $1M per quarter they will earn roughly $.17 EPS, based on TTM earnings power ex-Texas -- that would be a 10 PE with free growth. The ending of the Texas projects is key. My position is that another catastrophe on the scale of Texas is unlikely to pop up, based on the fact that it has only happened once in the recent history of the company.
As always this is not investment advice.
CETX might be worth a buy when it gets dumped back into the low 2s again by those late the party who are stuck with overpriced shares when liquidity dries up.
UIHC back to 13. I loaded up in the 13.0s
FONR yea this one hurts a bit -- had it all figured out but sold early around 11 due to the question marks; wanted to see the 10-K. Market is giving them a lot of credit. If it gets back to the $9s again with the same fundamentals like it has done multiple times I will be interested.
never mind
OK nvm, thanks for checking
SSK -- to be fair, it looks like i already froze PESI in May
Thanks,
UIHC looks interesting around $13 -- selling at 10x depressed earnings, due to cat losses of ~$.62 per share in the last 2 quarters. Check them out.
GV - Well the idea is that all of the "one-time charges" are part of the same problem (Texas) that is going away (completed in Q2). What interests me is the fact that outside of the Texas projects the rest of the business has done extremely well.
thanks for the kind words
I'm buying GV here
I find management's explanation of the Texas issues convincing. Management has been consistent that these projects will finish in Q2 and they finished on schedule.
Now, there is probably a systemic problem in GV that allows for a project in Texas to turn into a total disaster, so I would not pay 15x earnings for GV, but I think it is excessively cheap now.
Also note that the losses to discontinued ops (for remediation) are ending & were complete by the Aug 14 PR. If you ex that out they actually made 10 cents in Q2. In other words, Q2 really was a blowout quarter, their 2nd best ever, except that the true earnings power of the business was hidden by temporary losses in an old project. If you ex out Texas and remediation (both ending) they made $.27 EPS in the TTM - so an adj PE of 6.5. I think this more accurately describes the earnings power of the business.
I bought some at $1.74-6. Will be adding unless it goes way up from here. I would be surprised if it went much lower as there was support at 1.70 during the aug crash.
As always this is not investment advice but a teaser to get people to do their own research.
SLGD & FONR I'm learning a lot about how quickly sentiment can change -- sold early on both.
I don't mind if a director wants to take profits, it's completely understandable. But IMO if you want to cash out you should resign your board seat. I agree with the CEO on this one.
wade you can't compare your record to other's because you don't calculate it correctly. Also you can't arbitrarily start your performance record after the 90% hit you took in 2003.
sorry, someone had to say it
BSTO Q2 out
Post #2000 get
Looks nice. 17 pips EPS ($.0017), GM% way up. Management optimistic "This trend is seen as continuing in early Q3 as both July and August are proving to be even more profitable"
http://www.otcmarkets.com/financialReportViewer?symbol=BSTO&id=144409
SLGD - seems there is a lot more attention on the buy side. I'm watching this one closely.
SLGD decided to sell into strength today. Funny how much of an effect a simple SA article with no new info had. Looking to buy back after the indiscriminate selling kicks in.
China GDP growth
2010 10.6
2011 9.5
2012 7.7
2013 7.7
2014 7.4
1H 2015 7.0
I don't think China GDP growth declines explain a whole lot. Neither do the fluctuations of the Chinese stock market. IMO a better explanation is nervousness about fed tightening. It's been a nervous market ever since QE ended, so we got some increased volatility in the month before the first expected interest rate increase.
Wade - I took a look at gv and yes it looks interesting with their money losing projects ending. There are a lot of question marks tho and for a small company they have a complicated balance sheet that I haven't gone thru in detail. I'm keeping my eye on it. Like others have said I am worried about their past disappointments. If there are no suprises it is undervalued.
Sorry for the typos lol I'm on my phone, haven't figured out how to edit on the ap
There is a breakdown by country in the 10-k I'd u search for "segment" - In one of the footnotes I think.
From the 10-k China tax rate is 15% thru sp 2017. Taiwan tax rate by Google search Is 17%. Multiply NOLS by tax rate and discount to present. I get something like $16m present value for all the nols, rough calculation
OK wade I'm not going to argue with you if you're just going to say "because China" and misrepresent what I say.
Lol someone should make a log of these crazy predictions from wade. Under what scenario does the dow go to 12k? I mean we're talking about an economic crisis at that point