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Hi Toofuzzy, You said:
Hi Is7550, What is the username and password to log in to ftp://ftp.jfholdings.hol.es/newport.zip? It won't let me in.
Allen
Hi lostcowboy, Thanks for pointing out the book. Alas, Kindle doesn't let you print it out when you read it on a computer, however, if you go to:
https://sites.google.com/site/professionalinvestmentcoach/home/downloads
you can download the tables and see what they say. My first impression is that his PIC approach is basically the same as AIM except that his buy/sell price is roughly double AIM's, that is to say Ngu's sale at 150% and buy at 70% as opposed to standard AIM at approximately 125% and 83%.
Starting with a $10,000 Portfolio Control and a minimum % of share for a transaction at 10%, if you raise the sell safe to 23.5% and the buy safe to 33% you get (using the online calculator):
Close enough for me.@ Stock Value Above $15038
Min Sell Order Size $1504
Min Sell Price $15.04
Min # Shares Sell 100
@ Stock Value Below $6993
Min Buy Order Size $699
Max Buy Price $6.99
Min # Shares Buy 100
Hi Can Ray, Frankly the cannabis market scares me half to death because of the extreme volatility. In addition, in the US, it is still quite unclear what is going to happen as the Feds are still trying to crack down on any form of transaction while many states are opening up the market for it.
And California and cities local local to me are demanding such high registration fees that the small producers/vendors are in a pinch. There was an article about one person in the SF Chronicle today where it was going to cost over $20,000 to get all his permits and business licenses in place to run what amounts to a car garage size growing facility, and he got an exemption for a bunch of permits because he is small. This means that the large companies. which have big funding available, will be in a better position to handle cannabis and we all know what that means going forward, sort of like a Ponzi scheme. Yeah, some people will make money but not many.
In a way it resembles the cryptocurrency marketplace in that is so volatile it is almost beyond belief. Funny tidbit is that Bitcoin and Erutherum (sp?) are supposedly using so much electricity to create them that the amount is roughly equal to 3 small, poor countries yearly consumption. Yikes!
Best,
Allen
Hi Tom, Yep, AIM is wonderful in high volatility times, it's just those long stretches between them where it doesn't seem to do as well as your seat of the pants method. The hard problem is trying to figure out when to sit on your hands and bide your time waiting for AIM's signal.
The 0% Sell safe you've suggested helps during the lower volatility times, but when do we switch back to the 10%?
That's one h@#% of a puzzle.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, Yep, one could do that and actually make $0.05/share more than just selling the PUT, but my PUT expires before the July dividend so, for an accurate comparison, I'd only get $0.52 in dividends. However, if the price does not drop to $8 then the sell is a straight cash income.
Using the 0% AIM sell safe the price of the stock would have to go to about $9.44 to get a sell of 10 shares for a net of $9.40 per 100 shares in the AIM portfolio, assuming 100 shares in the pile. To get a decent return above the commission, one would need to invest roughly $17,000 to get a net sale of $188 before commissions.
However, if one gets the shares at $7.512, as I said, one could get a sell at $8.34, a figure I think is more likely in this very long bull run. In addition, using the extra purchased shares I'd get more dividends and a larger sale of 15 shares/100 shares of the option because I'd have 150 shares in hand.
The other thing is that the IRA that I'm doing this in is less than $20,000 so it would not make much sense to put nearly 100% of the value in just one position.
Then again one could buy now and sell a CALL, bringing in a bit of cash on top of the dividends.
My approach of selling the PUT, getting it assigned and then selling a CALL at, say $10.00, that gets assigned one would net about $2.60/share over a year's time, not counting dividends, almost 25% on an investment of about $1150. Not at all bad.
And if the CALL is not assigned one would still get about another $20/100 shares. Not all that much, true. However, if the PUT is assigned then I'd get $1.04 in dividends/share prior to the expiry of the CALL or about $156, given I'd have 150 shares.
All in all this seems reasonable for the small amount of dollars at risk.
And if I buy the extra 50% of shares at the assignment of the PUT I can AIM it like I talked about before so I'd be double dipping, using both the options and AIM.
We'll see how it goes.
Best,
Allen
Hi Bob, I suggest that you consider selling a PUT if you wish to continue to add shares of AMZA to your portfolio. The real virtue of selling PUTs and CALLs is that, if the PUT sale completes, it adds the shares to your portfolio at a net price that is lower than you sold the PUT at. As I said about AMZA, the $8.00 PUT will reduce the net price to $7.512/share. Add that to the shares you already own and it lowers your overall price which helps AIM get sales.
If it is not exercised, so what? You made a bit of money anyway. In a way this is "interest" on your cash reserves, much better than letting it sit in plain cash.
If it is exercised, then you got in at a bit lower price which allows for a sale sooner.
I've back tested several possible choices, however, the amount earned via selling the PUTs is not necessarily accurate as I could not find actual prices to use. If someone knows where to get past option prices, please let me know.
Anyway, assuming relatively low dollar amounts for the monies brought in by the sells of the PUTs, using the whole number of shares in the AIM spreadsheet and 2/3s of the number of shares to sell a CALL on works better than AIM alone, even if the CALL is never exercised because you can keep selling future CALLs bringing some cash that adds to the money brought in by AIM alone.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, I forgot to add that a minimum sale of $500 would not have had any effect in the examples I used in my post as the smallest dollar amount would have been $833. The $500 minimum buy/sell I use is simply to avoid small amounts when back testing with a share price that is lower than about $7-8 when looking for possible new positions.
On another note, thanks for the info about AMZA as I was able to sell an $8 PUT for $0.50 today, dropping the price to $7.512/share, if the PUT is exercised. Taking the figures from the prior post of an 11% gain to a sale, that would only be to $8.35 to get a small number of shares sold for a bit of extra profit.
I was a bit surprised my sale happened so fast but then looking at the overnight drop from $9.005 to $8.50 it makes sense. Since the sale was done in my quite small inherited IRA it added a bit over 2% to the total. Nice.
And if it is exercised I'm going to do what I found when analyzing the GUSH transaction I mentioned before, sell a CALL on 2/3s of the total shares and run AIM on the total number of shares.
This will be especially nice if it takes a few months for the whole process after the PUT is exercised because of the rather generous dividend of $0.52/share quarterly over the last year or so.
I'll let you know what happens.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, I'm using the AIM spreadsheet that I have modified somewhat but the basic formulas are the same. What I added is being able to enter the cost of commissions, the dividends received, and the calculation of the % gain.
The spreadsheet has both a % of stock to buy/sell and a minimum transaction size. This helps reduce the % of the transaction that is for commissions.
The "standard" settings, per Lichello, are 10% buy and sell safe. I've been using 0% sell safe since Tom suggested it a while back. I've played with the minimum buy safe and have found that an entry of -5% gets better results, on the average, than the standard +10% in my back tests. As I said in my last note, -10% did even better than -5% for the back test of AMZA. I can't do the math in my head so I'm not sure how to explain it more clearly.
My understanding is that the old settings of 10% buy and sell safe as used in the online calculator: http://web.archive.org/web/20120609073103id_/http://www.aim-users.com/calculator.htm, created the following with a Control of $10,000, 1000 shares and 10% each for buy, sell safe and minimum % shares to buy/sell:
This results in requiring a 25% increase in price to get a sale and a drop of almost 17% to get a buy while a setting of 0% sell safe, -5% buy safe and 10% minimum share trade gets:@ Stock Value Above $12500
Min Sell Order Size $1250
Min Sell Price $12.5
Min # Shares Sell 100
@ Stock Value Below $8333
Min Buy Order Size $833
Max Buy Price $8.33
Min # Shares Buy 100
This reduces the sell price to 11.11% and the buy to a drop of 4.8%.@ Stock Value Above $11111
Min Sell Order Size $1111
Min Sell Price $11.11
Min # Shares Sell 100
@ Stock Value Below $9524
Min Buy Order Size $952
Max Buy Price $9.52
Min # Shares Buy 100
Hi Toofuzzy, I took a quick look at AMZA and if you had started when it first was on the market you would lose a bit over 3% per year.
However, if you did not start until they started paying dividends you'd make a bit over 12.5% per year using 50% cash, -5% buy safe and 0% sell safe and a $500 minimum trade size with $6.95 commission rate.
If you changed the buy safe to -10% you'd make a hair over 14% per year.
Happy New Year,
Allen
Happy New Year and best of luck with AIM and the market.
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, You'd be better off to sell PUTs to create new positions. If you select a price only a small amount lower than the current price then you would get it for less than the average current price, and if it rockets up so the PUT is never assigned to you, you still get the money you sold it for.
As to selling covered CALLs, selecting a price that is higher than AIM would have you sell a portion for would allow you to make more money than AIM, by itself, would earn you. Yes, the price might rocket up well beyond what the CALL price is but given my experience with GUSH, the amount collected from the PUTs and the CALL was more than just AIM would have gotten you.
The other advantage to selling PUTs and CALLs is that you do not have to monitor the price on a frequent basis to get the price you chose. It happens or it doesn't, but you get the money from the sale regardless.
Where you have to be extra careful is selling PUTs when a position enters a long term down trend. Selling a CALL in that situation is just collecting gravy but a PUT might get you assigned a position that would not turn back up for years to come. Take a look at the history of ProShares UltraPro Short MidCap400 (SMDD) as one example of the potential problem.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, Here is exactly what I did:
For a net of $4,200.39.Date Description Amount
06/26/2017 Bought 400 GUSH @ 19 -7,600.00
06/26/2017 Sold 6 GUSH Sep 15/17 17.5 Put @ 2.5 1,490.83
06/29/2017 Sold 4 GUSH Dec 15/17 22.0 Call @ 4 1,593.88
09/14/2017 Bought 6 GUSH Sep 15/17 17.5 Put @ 0.1 -69.12
12/18/2017 Sold 400 GUSH @ 22 8,784.80
12/18/2017 REMOVAL OF OPTION DUE TO ASSIGNMENT (GUSH Dec 15 2017 22.0 Call)
Hi Gang, As I reported on GUSH a while back, the price declined to 23.43 as of the close of market 12/15 so the CALL I sold at $22 was exercised. Had I done AIM alone I would not have made as much as I did.
Bought 400 shares at $1900: -7600
Sold 6 PUTs at $17.50 that I bought back: +1490.83 & -69.12
Sold 4 CALLs at $22.00 that were exercised: +1,593.88 & $8,784.80
Net Total: $4200.39
This started on 6/26/2017 and ended 12/15/2017.
As I stated before I would have done better still had I bought enough shares, ~200 more, to do both AIM and the options trade.
I've been busy with the Credit Union, I'm President of the BoD and the one who knows computers, getting in an upgrade to equipment and the Internet and phone connections. Still not quite done with it, Monday I have to run new wires for the DSL and the POTS (Plain old telephone service} lines as the old wires, probably 25-30 years old, are giving us a bit of trouble, static, etc., so I haven't had a chance to chose another 3x ETF to try the same routine with, but this time along side AIM.
I welcome any suggestions you might have.
Warmest Regards,
Allen
Hi Gang, I did some digging on Vector Vest and about 2/3s of the reviews were negative. Most of them had a comment about too much information to be able to select wisely. A few said the made mone with it but not all that many, so out the window with that one.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, I got a mailer from VectorVest and from one of the charts it looks like a variation on AIM. Anyone know anything about it?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Tom, Please explain the "Ouch!!!!" Is it the Oscillator? If so, I still don't really understand its significance except in a general sort of way. High is bad and low is good, or have I got that wrong?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Gang, In looking at Yahoo I noticed two things: The first is that they are claiming that Google is deleting or has deleted portfolios that people might have there.
The other thing is Yahoo has a new set of screeners listed under the Markets link. One for ETFs under that listing is:
https://finance.yahoo.com/etfs?offset=100&count=100
which has the parameters of: Price (Intraday):greater than 10, Morningstar Performance Rating Overall: ????? and ????, (Stars) Region: United States.
402 meet that criteria, however you can edit the criteria somewhat to be even more selective.
It looks interesting and may provide some potential positions to watch. BTW, one can select them and download to a spreadsheet.
One thing I did notice is that they have a little chart on the right side that shows you where the current price is compared to the prior 52 weeks. What is particularly interesting is that a high percentage are at or very near their 52 week high. I don't know is that might be a clue to the potential market direct over the next few months or not but it is interesting.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, Yep, read that and some stuff about Dollar Value Averaging as well as "The Complete Guide to Option Selling" by James Cordier and Michael Gross. Plus I have downloaded and read a bunch of other stuff on various theories of how to work the market.
I tend to read a wide variety of stuff, for example, "Grifftopia" by Matt Taibbi. Then there is "Liar's Poker" by Michael Lewis of "Moneyball" and "The Big Short" fame.
"Liar's Poker" is all about Salomon Brothers in the mid '80s to late 1988 when he was an employee. He digs into the credit default swaps and other crazy financial activities and even gets into what likely caused AIG to crash in 2008 because of the way they handled the various financial instruments they insured. Great book. I highly recommend it if you want to understand what was happening out of sight at the time.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, I've been playing around with a slightly different approach to AIM. First of all I bought 400 shares of GUSH at $19/share. GUSH is a 3x ETF. I had a free trade so it cost exactly $7600. Then I sold 6 contracts of a PUT at $17.50 to bring in $1,490.83 after commission. I chose a PUT price to be below what AIM would buy some more shares. On a monthly basis I should have sold 49 shares on 7/1 at $21.65 and then bought 114 shares at $16.95, the price on 8/1 but didn't. I just let them ride. Based on the price on 9/1, $24.32, I should have sold 113 shares but just let it ride.
Based on today's price of $27.03 I still don't show an additional sale using minimum sale of 10% of shares, $500 minimum trade size, Buy Safe of -5% and a Sell Safe of 0%.
Assuming it won't go up all that much before the CALL I sold at $22 for December 15th, and using today's pricing, AIM alone would make 95%/year but the straight selling puts and covered calls will gain 155%/year. Not bad.
So, I'm guessing that some combination of the two approaches would be even better with a high volatility ETF. In this particular trade if I had bought 600 shares of GUSH and did the AIM trades as well as the PUT/CALL routine I'd have gotten ~175%/Year and would still have 75 shares to sell to clear the trade. This would add ~$2000, upping the total to about 225%/year. Wow!
I'm going to play with another one and see how I do.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang,
Here is an article worth downloading and reading that compares Dollar Value Averaging (somewhat similar to AIM), Dollar Cost Averaging, and Random Investing:
http://www.studyfinance.com/jfsd/pdffiles/v13n1/marshall.pdf
Best,
Allen
Hi Tom, Yep, there are several approaches to capturing volatility over time and each of them has some limitations.
Anyway, thanks to the reference to Thomas Phelps' book. I'll get it and see what he has to say.
Talking about books I highly recommend "Liar's Poker" (1989) by Michael Lewis who also wrote "Moneyball" and "The Big Short."
I can't say exactly why but the history of Salomon Brothers from when he was a trader for them from the middle '80s until the end of 1988 feels a lot like the current financial world, at least from what I can sense from the tidbits I read or hear.
I also suggest "Griftopia" (2011) by Matt Taibbi which covers what what was behind the 2007-9 crash and the manipulations via credit default swaps and similar "games."
The contents both books are amazingly similar.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, As Toofuzzy says, you can trade some ETFs for free - there are restrictions as to how often and others to watch out for - but, beware that lots of them have not done all that well since inception and very few even are close to the index that they attempt to approximate.
Here is the list at TDAmeritrade.
ACWF iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor
ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF World Large Stock
ACWV iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Global
AGGY WisdomTree Barclays Yield
AGND WisdomTree Barclays Negative
AGZ iShares Agency Bond ETF Intermediate Government
AGZD WisdomTree Barclays Interest Rate
AIRR First Trust RBA American Industrial
ALD WisdomTree Asia Local Debt Fund Emerging-Markets Local-Currency
ALTS ProShares Morningstar Alternatives
AOA iShares Core Aggressive Allocation
AOK iShares Core Conservative
AOM iShares Core Moderate Allocation
AOR iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF Allocation--50% to 70% Equity
AUSE WisdomTree Australia Dividend
AXJL WisdomTree Asia Pacific ex-Japan
BAB PowerShares Build America Bond
BIL SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 1-3
BTAL AGFiQ U.S. Market Neutral
CARZ First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto
CEMB iShares Emerging Markets
CEW WisdomTree Emerging Currency
CHEP AGFiQ U.S. Market Neutral Value
CIBR First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity
CJNK SPDR® ICE BofAML Crossover
CWB SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays
CXSE WisdomTree China ex-State-Owned
CYB WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund Commodities Agriculture
DDEZ WisdomTree Dynamic Currency
DDJP WisdomTree Dynamic Currency
DDLS WisdomTree Dynamic Currency
DDWM WisdomTree Dynamic Currency
DEM WisdomTree Emerging Markets
DES WisdomTree SmallCap Dividend
DEW WisdomTree Global High Dividend
DFE WisdomTree Europe SmallCap
DFJ WisdomTree Japan SmallCap
DGRE WisdomTree Emerging Markets
DGRS WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Quality
DGS WisdomTree Emerging Markets
DIM WisdomTree International MidCap
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap
DNL WisdomTree Global ex-U.S. Quality
DOL WisdomTree International LargeCap
DON WisdomTree MidCap Dividend Fund Mid-Cap Value
DOO WisdomTree International Dividend
DRW WisdomTree Global ex-US Real
DTH WisdomTree International High
DTN WisdomTree Dividend ex-Financials
DVEM WisdomTree Emerging Markets
DWIN PowerShares DWA Tactical
DWM WisdomTree International Equity
DXGE WisdomTree Germany Hedged
DXJ WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity
DXJC WisdomTree Japan Hedged Capital
DXJF WisdomTree Japan Hedged
DXJH WisdomTree Japan Hedged Health
DXJR WisdomTree Japan Hedged Real
DXJS WisdomTree Japan Hedged
DXPS WisdomTree United Kingdom
DXUS WisdomTree Global ex-U.S. Hedged
DYB WisdomTree Dynamic Bearish U.S.
DYLS WisdomTree Dynamic Long/Short
EDIV SPDR® S&P Emerging Markets
EDOM WisdomTree Europe Local Recovery
EEMX SPDR® MSCI Emerging Markets
EES WisdomTree SmallCap Earnings
EFAX SPDR® MSCI EAFE Fossil Fuel
EFG iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF Foreign Large Growth
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF Foreign Large Value
ELD WisdomTree Emerging Markets
EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging
EMCG WisdomTree Emerging Markets
EMDV ProShares MSCI Emerging Markets
EMHY iShares Emerging Markets High
EMLP First Trust North American Energy
EMSD WisdomTree Strong Dollar
EMTL SPDR® DoubleLine® Emerging
EPI WisdomTree India Earnings Fund India Equity
EPS WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund Large Blend
ERUS iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF Miscellaneous Region
ESGD iShares MSCI EAFE ESG Optimized
ESGE iShares MSCI EM ESG Optimized
ESGU iShares MSCI USA ESG Optimized
EUDG WisdomTree Europe Quality
EUSC WisdomTree Europe Hedged
EWX SPDR® S&P Emerging Markets
EXT WisdomTree Total Earnings Fund Large Blend
EZM WisdomTree MidCap Earnings Fund Mid-Cap Blend
EZU iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF Europe Stock
FAAR First Trust Alternative Absolute
FALN iShares Fallen Angels USD Bond
FAN First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF Miscellaneous Sector
FBT First Trust NYSE Arca
FBZ First Trust Brazil AlphaDEX® Fund Latin America Stock
FCAN First Trust Canada AlphaDEX® Fund Miscellaneous Region
FCEF First Trust CEF Income Opportunity
FCG First Trust Natural Gas ETF Equity Energy
FCVT First Trust SSI Strategic Convertible
FDN First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index
FEU SPDR® STOXX Europe 50 ETF Europe Stock
FGM First Trust Germany AlphaDEX®
FIW First Trust Water ETF Miscellaneous Sector
FKO First Trust South Korea AlphaDEX®
FLM First Trust Global Engineering and
FLN First Trust Latin America
FLOT iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF Ultrashort Bond
FLRN SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays
FMB First Trust Managed Municipal ETF Muni National Interm
FNI First Trust Chindia ETF Miscellaneous Region
FONE First Trust NASDAQ Smartphone
FPA First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan
FPE First Trust Preferred Securities and
FPEI First Trust Institutional Preferred
FSZ First Trust Switzerland AlphaDEX®
FTAG First Trust Indxx Global Agriculture
FTGC First Trust Global Tactical
FTRI First Trust Indxx Global Natural
FTSL First Trust Senior Loan Fund Bank Loan
FTSM First Trust Enhanced Short Maturity
FTXD First Trust Nasdaq Retail ETF Consumer Cyclical
FTXG First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage
FTXH First Trust Nasdaq Pharmaceuticals
FTXL First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor
FTXN First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF Equity Energy
FTXO First Trust Nasdaq Bank ETF Financial
FTXR First Trust Nasdaq Transportation
FV First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5
FVL First Trust Value Line® 100
FXD First Trust Consumer Discretionary
FXG First Trust Consumer Staples
FXH First Trust Health Care AlphaDEX®
FXL First Trust Technology AlphaDEX®
FXN First Trust Energy AlphaDEX® Fund Equity Energy
FXO First Trust Financials AlphaDEX®
FXR First Trust Industrials/Producer
FXU First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX® Fund Utilities
FXZ First Trust Materials AlphaDEX®
GAL SPDR® SSgA Global Allocation ETF Allocation--50% to 70% Equity
GII SPDR® S&P Global Infrastructure
GMF SPDR® S&P Emerging Asia Pacific
GNR SPDR® S&P Global Natural
GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF Intermediate Government
GRID First Trust NASDAQ® Clean Edge®
GSD WisdomTree Global SmallCap
GULF WisdomTree Middle East Dividend
GWX SPDR® S&P International Small
GXC SPDR® S&P China ETF China Region
HDG ProShares Hedge Replication ETF Multialternative
HDMV First Trust Horizon Managed
HDRW WisdomTree Global ex-U.S. Hedged
HEDJ WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity
HEWJ iShares Currency Hedged MSCI
HEZU iShares Currency Hedged MSCI
HGSD WisdomTree Global Hedged
HYLS First Trust Tactical High Yield ETF High Yield Bond
HYMB SPDR® Nuveen S&P High Yield
HYND WisdomTree Negative Duration
HYZD WisdomTree Interest Rate Hedged
IAGG iShares Core International
IBND SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays
IDMO PowerShares S&P International
IEUR iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF Europe Stock
IFGL iShares International Developed
IHDG WisdomTree International Hedged
ILTB iShares Core 10+ Year USD Bond
IMTM iShares Edge MSCI Intl Momentum
IPAC iShares Core MSCI Pacific ETF Diversified Pacific/Asia
IPE SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays TIPS
IPFF iShares International Preferred
IPKW PowerShares International BuyBack
IQDG WisdomTree International Quality
IQLT iShares Edge MSCI Intl Quality
ITE SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays
IYLD iShares Morningstar Multi-Asset
JPGB JPMorgan Global Bond
JPGE JPMorgan Diversified Return Global
JPHF JPMorgan Diversified Alternative
JPHY JPMorgan Disciplined High Yield
JPST JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF Ultrashort Bond
KBE SPDR® S&P Bank ETF Financial
KIE SPDR® S&P Insurance ETF Financial
LALT PowerShares Multi-Strategy
LEMB iShares J.P. Morgan EM Local
LGLV SPDR® SSGA US Large Cap Low
LMBS First Trust Low Duration
LOWC SPDR® MSCI ACWI Low Carbon
MCEF First Trust Municipal CEF Income
MCHI iShares MSCI China ETF China Region
MDYG SPDR® S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth
MDYV SPDR® S&P 400 Mid Cap Value
MEAR iShares Short Maturity Municipal
MOM AGFiQ U.S. Market Neutral
MRGR ProShares Merger ETF Market Neutral
MTUM iShares Edge MSCI USA
MUB iShares National Muni Bond ETF Muni National Interm
NEAR iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF Ultrashort Bond
OILK ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil
ONEO SPDR® Russell 1000 Momentum
ONEV SPDR® Russell 1000 Low Volatility
ONEY SPDR® Russell 1000 Yield ETF Mid-Cap Value
PCEF PowerShares CEF Income
PDBC PowerShares Optimum Yield
PDP PowerShares DWA Momentum
PEX ProShares Global Listed Private
PFIG PowerShares Fundamental
PGF PowerShares Financial Preferred
PJP PowerShares Dynamic
PRF PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1000
PRFZ PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1500
PSK SPDR® Wells Fargo Preferred
PSMB PowerShares Balanced Multi-Asset
PSMC PowerShares Conservative
PSMG PowerShares Growth Multi-Asset
PSMM PowerShares Moderately
PUTW WisdomTree CBOE S&P 500
PXH PowerShares FTSE RAFI Emerging
PZA PowerShares National AMT-Free
QABA First Trust NASDAQ® ABA
QCLN First Trust NASDAQ® Clean Edge®
QEFA SPDR® MSCI EAFE
QEMM SPDR® MSCI Emerging Markets
QTEC First Trust
QUAL iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality
QUS SPDR® MSCI USA
RALS ProShares RAFI® Long/Short Market Neutral
REET iShares Global REIT ETF Real Estate
RFAP First Trust RiverFront Dynamic Asia
RFDI First Trust RiverFront Dynamic
RFEM First Trust RiverFront Dynamic
RLY SPDR® SSgA Multi-Asset Real
RWO SPDR® Dow Jones Global Real
RWX SPDR® Dow Jones International
SFHY WisdomTree Fundamental U.S.
SHAG WisdomTree Barclays Yield
SHE SPDR® SSGA Gender Diversity
SHM SPDR® Nuveen Bloomberg
SHYG iShares 0-5 Year High Yield
SIZ AGFiQ U.S. Market Neutral Size
SJNK SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays Short
SKYY First Trust Cloud Computing ETF Technology
SLYG SPDR® S&P 600 Small Cap Growth
SLYV SPDR® S&P 600 Small Cap Value
SMLV SPDR® SSGA US Small Cap Low
SPAB SPDR® Portfolio Aggregate Bond
SPDW SPDR® Portfolio World ex-US ETF Foreign Large Blend
SPEM SPDR® Portfolio Emerging Markets
SPHB PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta
SPIB SPDR® Portfolio Intermediate Term
SPLB SPDR® Portfolio Long Term
SPLG SPDR® Portfolio Large Cap ETF Large Blend
SPMD SPDR® Portfolio Mid Cap ETF Mid-Cap Blend
SPMO PowerShares S&P 500 Momentum
SPSB SPDR® Portfolio Short Term
SPSM SPDR® Portfolio Small Cap ETF Small Blend
SPTL SPDR® Portfolio Long Term
SPTM SPDR® Portfolio Total Stock
SPTS SPDR® Portfolio Short Term
SPYD SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 High
SPYG SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 Growth
SPYV SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 Value
SPYX SPDR® S&P 500 Fossil Fuel
SRLN SPDR® Blackstone / GSO Senior
STIP iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF Inflation-Protected Bond
STOT SPDR® DoubleLine® Short Term
SUB iShares Short-Term National Muni
SYE SPDR® MFS Systematic Core
SYG SPDR® MFS Systematic Growth
SYV SPDR® MFS Systematic Value
TDIV First Trust NASDAQ Technology
TFI SPDR® Nuveen Bloomberg
TIPX SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 1-10
TOLZ ProShares DJ Brookfield Global
ULST SPDR® SSgA Ultra Short Term
USDU WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar
USFR WisdomTree Bloomberg Floating
USMF WisdomTree U.S. Multifactor Fund Large Blend
USRT iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF Real Estate
VIXM ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures
VRIG PowerShares Variable Rate
VRP PowerShares Variable Rate
WDTI WisdomTree Managed Futures
WFHY WisdomTree Fundamental U.S. High
WIP SPDR® Citi International
XAR SPDR® S&P Aerospace & Defense
XHB SPDR® S&P Homebuilders ETF Consumer Cyclical
XHE SPDR® S&P Health Care
XMLV PowerShares S&P MidCap Low
XNTK SPDR® NYSE Technology ETF Technology
XSD SPDR® S&P Semiconductor ETF Technology
XSHQ PowerShares S&P SmallCap Quality
XSLV PowerShares S&P SmallCap Low
XSOE WisdomTree Emerging Markets
XSW SPDR® S&P Software & Services
XTN SPDR® S&P Transportation ETF Industrials
Hi Gang, Found two interesting listings of stocks/ETFs/etc that you might want to use if you are looking around for other possible positions to explore.
The first one is based on NASDAQ: http://www.nasdaq.com/screening/companies-by-name.aspx?letter=0&exchange=all&render=download
This one has 6774 symbols.
Then there is http://www.investexcel.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Yahoo-Ticker-Symbols-September-2017.zip
Which is:
Hi Gang, Found out what IVR stands for: Interactive Voice Response (IVR) Phone System
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, If you use TDAmeritrade, here is the new commission schedule they have allotted me as of 7 am 11/15/2017:
Hi Gang, Due to an oddity in my quite small inherited IRA I had some options on MAT and when I was closing the position I made a small profit, $225, but what was really odd was what they were going to charge per contract. Prior to today they listed the commission at $6.95 base plus $0.75/contract. Today they wanted to charge me $0.00 base and $1.50/contract. I got them to back off on that but the guy said it was supposed to change to the $1.50/contract on Wednesday.
If they do I may well look for a different place to put that portfolio since I sell puts and calls with about half of my funds in that portfolio. The other half is in 2 positions with 18.1% dividend and the other 9.6%.
Anybody got suggestions for a better place for small options trading?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, HASMAT LOL!
Allen
Hi Tom, You are quite right, the software is well beyond my skill to implement the display.
The display in your post is a part of a larger package, right? What package is it and what is its cost?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Tom, I looked at your link: https://www.stockmarketeye.com/tour and then went to their blog where they say:
Hi Ken, I've found that Reuters - http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/topPerformers.asp can give some info but I haven't figured out how to download into a spreadsheet yet.
They also have other screeners at: http://www.screener.reuters.wallst.com/Stock/US/Index?quickscreen=gaarp - gaarp stands for GROWTH AT A REASONABLE PRICE (GAARP).
There are a whole bunch of criteria to use to select what is displayed.
Best,
Allen
Hi Tom, What tool are you using for the display in your post?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Tom, I, too, have been using Netstock for about 3 years and it is dead, alas. Value Stock Selector, V4, is also dead. And Google, plus a couple of other I have checked, don't give a single day's price to work with, nor do they do multiple symbols like Yahoo did.
What I was using the direct Yahoo download for was for about 25 indexes and a few ETFs/Stocks to see if I could put together a sense of the market direction. I tried a half dozen from June of 2007 until the end of 2008 and it seemed like one could get a sense of where the market was headed a tiny bit before it headed down. But it is too painful and time consuming to do it one symbol at a time which is why I put together a long string query to capture the data and then copied and pasted the results into a spreadsheet to compare with a base price and get a CGR - Compund Growth Rate - automatically calculated. I had it set up so I just entered the current date along with the pasted data and it did all the calculations.
Oh, well.
Allen
Hi Gang, Well, you can totally ignore what I posted about getting stock price data from Yahoo. They just turned it off, apparently because some people were getting the data and the spreading it around. This is what you get when you attempt to use ones like this: https://finance.yahoo.com/d/quotes.csv?s=BIV+^GSPC&f=sd1t1l1vc1pn
Okay, Firebird, how does being 60 sync up with retiring in 2017 at age 56? Are you a time traveler?
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, Holy Guacamole!!! When I awoke I looked at the Yahoo finance app on my cellphone. I have about twenty five of various sorts - only a couple I have in my accounts, BIV and BND, to sort of keep an eye out for market changes. It mas mostly been up here and down there, changing days by day, but today every one is down except ^VIX and all of them have stayed down all morning. It's 2:07 PM EST now. We'll see what the day is like in a couple of hours.
Meanwhile, if this is the beginning of a bear - panda, brown or grizzly - market, if it follows the typical of the past it will go back up in a while before heading for the cellar. Keep your powder dry!
Allen
Hi K, I noticed the report about AIEQ day before yesterday but as of last night could not bring it up on Yahoo or TDAmeritrade. Today is the first day it actually traded and showed up on Yahoo. TDAmeritrade displayed it today and says it started on the 17th.
The idea behind it is interesting given that the study done on ~6000 forecasts done by "experts" showed them right only 47% of the time.
There have been a couple of the "experts," Tom Gentile is one that springs to mind, who've said that a market crash was just around the corner. Gentile said "On September 18th, the Markets Will Turn - Here's How to Protect Yourself." And then he goes on to try to sell you some sort of "intelligent" service.
As we all know, it didn't happen but he is still out there promoting himself as an "expert" with special tools to predict the market.
At least with AIEQ we will avoid two big hurdles, the "expert's" emotions and their need to sell you their "services" at ridiculous prices. I'm guessing it might be worth throwing a few bucks into it, or maybe just paper trade it as a potential marker for market direction.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, Following up on looking for indicator for market bottom I tried EMA, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 intervals.
4 EMA shows the market change direction two months after bottom and stays that way through the end of 2009 with a couple of dips in 2010 for SPY. 6 EMA takes 3 months and stays that way until May of 2010. It then recovers above the EMA in July, 2010. 8 EMA takes three months as well, but SPY goes up the next month and then finally EMA stays below the current price until May of 2010 and then recovers. 10 EMA takes 5 months for the current price of SPY to pass above the EMA price and stays there until June of 2010 where it dips for one month and then stays above the EMA as far as my chart goes, October 2012. 12 EMA takes until July 2009 to dip below the current price and then dips again in June of 2010, current recovers in 3 months and the EMA stays below current price until August of 2011 and then recovers in two months and stays below the current price until the end of my chart in October of 2012.
I'm guessing, based on this data, that a combo of the 6 EMA and 12 EMA is the best indicator that the bottom has passed. The 6 is a bit to volatile to be a reliable indicator but the 12 delays things a couple of extra months. I'm also guessing, given the bull market history over the last 60+ years, that the minor dips are of no great consequence as bull markets typically last an average of 58 months.
I'm not sure how this coordinates with Orcroft's method but one might consider using both as indicators of when to start getting back into the market.
Best,
Allen