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Back to the price people said I should have covered at. I knew I could count on NWBO to CONTINUE to mismanage expectations. The trend is your friend.
Continuing the journey down again, I'll be at 70% short gains here pretty soon. Still hasn't hit my covers stops, which are currently at $3.87 or $5.33.
Bet we hit the former before we see - if we ever see - the latter.
"AF's article was made so easy for him to write..."
Exactly!
With an investigation by a former FBI agent? I would hardly call that either addressed or resolved on NWBO'S part.
People may absolutely hate it, but I challenge anyone to see how AF isn't right. I bet nobody here is willing to forward these questions to Les and Linda and ask - no beg - them to respond (per AF article). I bet because everyone knows that there will be no response. And that, and this is why I am (successfully) short:
"There are important questions that Northwest Bio and its CEO Linda Powers have avoided answering for a long time, but should now.
1. Why are approximately half of Northwest Bio's R&D expenses ($28.4 million year to date) paid out in cash to Cognate BioServices, the cell processing firm controlled by Powers? [Powers negotiates with herself.] Northwest Bio says it relies on Cognate to manufacture its cancer vaccines and that the contract is fairly valued, but where are the independent audits to prove it?
2. Historically, Northwest paid Cognate with company stock and cash. Putting aside the fact that Cognate receives Northwest Bio shares priced at a discount, the company claims Cognate's stock ownership in Northwest Bio aligns the interests of the two companies. But starting this year, Northwest Bio is paying Cognate in all cash. That is cash ($28.4 million this year) which ultimately flows to Powers because she owns Cognate. Why was this change in payment terms made and how does it align the interests of the companies?
3. Northwest Bio is required to pay millions of dollars to Cognate if the company's cancer vaccine programs are shut down. That's money that could go be returned to shareholders if Northwest Bio was forced to liquidate but will flow instead back to Powers. Would Cognate, a paid provider of manufacturing services, be eligible to receive generous payments from Northwest Bio if not for Powers' ownership of the company?
4. What were the names of the investors who loaned money to Cognate but were repaid subsequently with discounted Northwest Bio stock? What, if any, was the relationship between these favored investors and Powers?
5. It's been more than three months since Northwest Bio disclosed a "temporary" halt to screening of patients into its phase III study of the brain cancer vaccine DCVax-L. What was the reason for the suspension of patient enrollment and why hasn't it been resolved?
6. Northwest Bio promised to complete enrollment enrollment in the DCVax-L phase III study and start phase II studies of a related product, DCVax-Direct, this year. Does the company expect to achieve these promised milestones?
7. In March 2014, Northwest Bio promised to generate revenue from compassionate use sales of DCVax-L in Germany. Why hasn't the company delivered on this revenue promise 20 months later?"
Want to know why the stock is down? Because if the company was not hiding anything, then the answers to these question would be out there. Every person I know who makes a living trading stocks has told me just about the same thing.
By the way, to my long time fans and avid readers of my posts, AF's questions are exactly what I have been saying for 4 months now. And I'm not the only one (hence the $5 share price). Time to open the kimono.
Because my trading platform allows me to hold stops in pre-/post-market.
By the way, this is what I use:
https://www.tradestation.com/trading-technology/tradestation-platform
I almost got taken out on that climb to $5.19 the other day. Fortunately, I did not.
This is all about setting up rules that protect your investment. That's how you don't get killed. You get out when your "rules" trigger. Period, end of story. You don't hold on for pride or sell for fear. You trade on what makes sense.
And as far as it "opening" at $20, show me a single significant PR that came out from NWBO before 8:15 am on any trading day and I'll reconsider the risk.
See...I'm all good.
Volume and a lack of break in the resistance level of $5 would indicate this is a weak move that will probably be wiped out by end of the week.
If I'm wrong it will be the first time in 18 months on this stock - rode it up (94% gain), now riding it down (another 65% gain as of today). And my short investment is protected at about a 55% gain with a stop...I'm totally, totally ok with all that.
Not rubbing it in, just hoping people listen to me next time. That's the point of one of these boards, isn't it? When to buy, when to sell? To get investment advice?
We are now on Day 100(!) of the very best short I have ever executed. That's 100 days of management failure. And no surprise, today we continue the downward trend...heading into the $3's pretty soon. Still a great opportunity to get in short....looking for a 15-20% decline from here.
Stock is trending very nicely, humping over to go back down (like I said it would).
NWB0 is still a great short opportunity as we head into the $3's.
Another green day in my account for NWBO. I'm a happy camper as it looks like we are setting up for another wave down. Will we break below $4.50 this round? I think so. Management will be mute until 2016 at this point. So yes, I still see this hitting $3's. Great short opportunity here. One could see 20-25% gains shorting at this point, although that would be 70% gains for me. Awesome stock...easy to see how to trade this one!
Nope. I have my entry and exit plans that have served me well over 20 years of investing. I rode it up from $6.40 or so to $12's and shorted it back down to here. If it hits $5.30, I'll be stopped out. Doing just fine without anyone's input. Thanks.
Whew! Almost got stopped out there. Good thing the market is realizing nothing to be excited about. Just some tight stops taken out. Back down we go. Still short, still making money in NWBO.
I read them. What I am trying to say is that seasoned investors...meaning people who have been doing this a while and know what kinds of things will kill your portfolio...first look for red flags before they rely on anything management might say. Inexperienced investors do the opposite...they look for beams of light, even if they are simple rhetoric from management, that they can use to blind themselves to the obvious issues. That is a dangerous attitude to take as an investor, and frankly that is why the share price is where it is. People can come up with more outlandish reasons like a single bloggers comments or some behind the scenes conspiracy theory against this tiny company, but ask yourself this: "What is more likely?" People think executives at large pharma companies are sitting in corporate board rooms plotting the destruction of a small company like NWBO. I've been in those rooms, and I assure you they are concerned with bigger things.
I attribute the drop to a company unable to manage investor expectations and provide sufficient transparency to make this a reasonable investment...even in BioTech. There are 2,000+ other companies investors can put money into? Why risk it here? Smart people don't risk their investments unnecessarily. I got out of this when the risk went off the charts (when they halted but gave ZERO explanation why) and went into something less risky...like Oil...that has good upside potential and lower risk and isn't going to ZERO like this could.
I shorted it because everything I saw told me I wouldn't be alone in thinking this was too risky right now and people would sell...and I was right. Not anything too complicated here...just understanding how the market works.
By the way, for those of you looking for education on how to trade stocks, another great indicator of a good stock to short is when investors use conspiracy theories to justify a stock's decline. Means the price is being held up from declining further by an irrational exuberance and beliefs held by bag-holders that can't be sustained. Short to the $3's...that's my advice.
Excellent article this morning about NWBO on the Motley Fool. Why? Because it shows just how badly management has managed the investment communities understanding of their product, progress and potential. Don't blame the writer, he's just reflecting the impression management has left. This continues again today as a great short investment!
Waiting to hit $3's before I consider covering. I am sure management will pull though for me and deliver my target price of about $3.80 for covering.
Unbelievable, I know, but I'm seeing this probably touching the 52-week low pretty soon. Wow...from $12 to <$4 simply because management fails to provide information or transparency?!? Shows you that the management of a company...as I have always said...matters more than any other aspect. Hope everyone else bet the right way on management's incompetence. NWBO continues to be a great short investment. No reason to buy this until we hit the $3's.
Waiting for it to hit $3's (not $3)...I'm satisfied with a range of $3.65 - $3.90. That's where I think it will go given the management team's current capabilities to run a BioTech business. Of course, as a reminder, I've protected my investment with a nice stop at about 45% gains. Investors need to protect their money. I would also would be comfortable with that outcome.
NWBO seems to be continuing it's path into oblivion. Short position still strong. Will start to think about covering and putting all these gains into a new summer home once NWBO executives successfully drive the PPS back into the $3's through its horrible management of investor expectations.
I completely agree. Unfortunately the only help investors get are "stay tuned"...which is what TV stations say when they don't want you to change the channel knowing there is something better on another station.
Investing in management's inability to properly manage investor expectations has been the driving force of my short gains. Hope it continues.
Been short for quite some time if you look back on my posts. Best short term investment in my portfolio right now of things I have positions on! Up about ~55% on this short and have a relatively soft stop on if it takes off...I can't lose.
Nothing positive has driven sustainable investment in this stock...I don't see that changing anytime soon. So the trend is your friend until that changes...and that trend is down.
Short investing in bad management is almost always a win.
Definitely the start of a leg down. My short position is working well. Relying heavily on the company's failure to address real investor issues with buying the stock. Great short play continues!
Look at the daily chart for the past 6 months. Just another bear flag forming...getting ready for another leg down. Probably triggered by Linda announcing the start of Direct trial without any update on -L. This will send more fear into the market that -L's problems are serious.
This continues to be an excellent short play. I think CEO Linda Powers will continue to fail investors and be the primary driver of fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the investment community because of their inaction, shady arrangement with Cognate, and failure to properly manage public relations.
I'd say go short until we hit 3's again, then cover and move on.
What fundamentals??? You do realize nothing...not one thing...has proven this is a viable company with a viable product yet.
There are no fundamentals to go on. Only speculation and blind hope. What a great investment strategy.
Sure she has. How much money has she made in salary, current share price and payments passed through cognate. Lots more than you...
No, she is the real fudster...and the market is reacting to it.
Nobody has created more FUD around NWBO than Linda Powers herself. You want proof? Look at the stock price, market cap, and short interest. None of us here on the board did that. It was all her. And it is her incompetence that shorts -and I - are betting on. So far, a lucrative and winning investment!
Sorry, but true.
From AF: "$NWBO issues statement blaming short sellers for steep decline in stock price. Typical. Almost 8 wks since ph3 screening halt, no update."
Yep. That is exactly right. Why is Linda scratching her head? Because she is clueless about what it takes to create confidence in her company.
"Who is selling?" That is very easy to answer: People who believed in the company and lost a lot of their hard earned money. Good thing you were there to take advantage of their tragedy...that NWBO management caused.
Down 32% - management says nothing. Anybody called Les lately?
WOW! At this point, I think it is kind of sick that some people think Linda is doing you a favor by destroying your investment. I've actually reached that point that I really, truly feel sorry for some of you. That's coming from someone who barely feels anything for anyone.
Sorry everyone...and that's more than you'll get from Linda or Les who have taken your money for the last decade to pay their salaries and living pretty cushy lives right before they retire.
If by "same old same old" you incompetent management, then yes. That's all it is.
HA! As the stock plunges. Fantastic response today.
Turtle isn't the subject here. So if YOU can't control your reaction to him, put him on ignore and move on.
Linda is my dream CEO! Seriously. I've made more money on the way down than I did on the way up. GO NWBO! <- Seriously! Investing in their incompetence - through a short position - is turning out to be my best investment of 2015! Thanks to Blue and afford and others who kept me questioning and allowed me the confidence to exit/turn my position at the right time.
Good to see that I am finally becoming an investor who knows how to make money. A can of grapefruit juice for everyone who would like to send me their address...it's on me!
Why the #$^#^& else would I post here? If you say to make people sell to move the stock price, I might just put you on ignore. The pitiful number of shares that would change hands if EVERYONE on this board sold their positions wouldn't make a wit's bit of difference.
Besides, the stock is moving in the direction that I want every single day no matter what I say! So why bother to post if not to try and help people take advantage of what I think will happen (which, I should point out again, IS happening)
So yes, I post here to tell people what I think will happen so they stop making mistakes investing. Do I do it harshly? Yes, but that is what it is. Period.
I really don't care if anyone believes me or not. And on that note: Please stop talking about me. The topic here is NWBO...not ME.
I am giving my opinion of NWBO as an investment. You call it FUD, I call it analysis.
If I can keep some suckers from buying this as an investment and seeing that this is a good short play, then I am doing EXACTLY what an INVESTMENT message board is supposed to be used for.
Sorry that it doesn't support your position, but that's not my problem. If you and others had listened to me 90 days ago, you would have a lot - let me repeat...A LOT - more money in your accounts.
You may not like that I was right...but I was right none the less. Meaning: I gave good investment advice on an investment message board.
There's your "value".
One might think Linda wants to milk as much salary and payments to Cognate before lifting a blind. Also a very good reason that nobody can deny.
Let me guess...no reply.
Apparently Les only contacts certain posters here...which makes me think maybe certain posters are lying about talking to anyone at the company.
There is nothing in the way the stock is behaving that would indicate NWBO has anything that works. A lot smarter people (than anyone here) could be buying this stock and are not.
Don't judge Turtle for his concern...lest you would like others to address your blindness to what is happening.