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It is purely anecdotal, there were two many variables to control for,it was not part of the cancer study protocols.
Dr. Alkon, and his team at BRNI noticed it. It may have been mentioned by Dr. Alkon, at other AD conferences over the years, but I have no knowledge of that.
BRNI would have reviewed those cancer studies perhaps a decade or more ago and while significant to the Bryostatin research team at the time was not supported by any hard data.
McMagyar, you state: "Surprised not more cognitive anecdotal evidence from the 1500 previous takers of bryostatin.."
That is a great insight and that is a question I asked Dr. Alkon at the Sachs Neuroscience Biopartnering & Investment Forum (3-27-17).
He told me that his team at BRNI reviewed all of the Bryostatin cancer studies and what they noticed was that Chemo Brain symptoms were absent in the treated patients. ("Chemo brain is a common term used by cancer survivors to describe thinking and memory problems that can occur after cancer treatment. Chemo brain can also be called chemo fog, chemotherapy-related cognitive impairment or cognitive dysfunction" - Mayo Clinic)
The Mayo clinic lists Donepezil (Aricept), a drug used in people with Alzheimer's disease as one of the treatments of Chemo Brain.
http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/chemo-brain/diagnosis-treatment/treatment/txc-20170248
Dr. Alkon, ever the researcher, stressed that it was purely anecdotal evidence and not studied.
Benzinga is now making a media event out of the data release with AF live:
Benzinga: We'll be joined by adamfeuerstein on PreMarket Prep tomorrow to analyze $NTRP's trial data. Tune in at 8… http://premarket.benzinga.com.
Benzinga article: Neurotrope Alzheimer's Phase 2 Trial Data Coming On Monday
April 28, 2017
Shares of Neurotrope Inc NTRP 24.24%, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops therapies for the treatment of Alzheimer's and neurodegenerative diseases, shot higher by more than 15 percent early Friday morning.
Neurotrope announced it will be releasing Monday top-line data from a Phase 2 clinical trial exploring its therapy Bryostatin-1. The trial consists of 148 patients suffering from moderate to severe Alzheimer's Disease.
Bryostatin was developed at the Blanchette Rockefeller Neurosciences Institute and has shown promising signs of success even in patients with gene mutations.
What To Know
Benzinga had the opportunity to chat with Neurotrope CEO Dr. Susanne Wilke earlier this year.
Wilke explained there is a "current hypothesis" of treating the disease by focusing on neuronal loss. Instead, the company focuses on regenerative methods to replace lost synaptic networks that are consistently associated with the breakdown of human cognitive functions.
"In the current hypothesis," Wilke explained, "we take amyloid plaque and tau tangles - which kind of strangulate the neuron and then you have neuronal loss - as being causative for Alzheimer's. What we are saying is, maybe that is true, but it may not be causative."
Wilkes noted that before you get to neuronal loss, you probably will have synaptic loss and that's where Neurotrope's Bryostatin looks to be revolutionary.
Analyst's Take
Analysts at Aegis initiated coverage of Neurotrope in early April with a Buy rating and $31 price target under the belief that the company's Bryostatin could address several important pathologies of Alzheimer's
"If the Phase IIb trial is partially successful (meets some but not all of its endpoints) we believe it could still have therapeutic value in AD (Alzheimer's Disease) and other neurological diseases where cognitive function or development is affected," the analyst stated.
The stock traded recently at $15.61, up 3 percent on the day.
https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/17/04/9366312/neurotrope-alzheimers-phase-2-trial-data-coming-on-monday
Your safety concerns are not relevant.
As you well know there was a safety module in the Ph2b study.
The Data Monitoring Committee, (DMC) an FDA mandated component of the Neurotrope study, would have picked up on any drug safety concerns with the AD patients.
If there were serious concerns they would have intervened and changed the study protocol or halted the study.
The DMC did not do that in NTRP’s Ph2b study.
"The level of side effects acceptable in cancer patients who are already suffering under chemo is different from what is acceptable in an elderly population."
Really, can you back up that statement??? Any FDA ruling???
I noticed that yesterday, also, on Yahoo. That figure is an estimate and would have come from the Transfer Agent. I'll email IR and see if they have a take on it and let you know.
If accurate, it is still a very small number of tradable shares compared to many other micro biotech stocks.
It appears that you are now expecting positive results in the Ph2b study and that yes, the science will be validated in humans.
"Reading Alkon's papers is like following a scientific detective story, where the truth turned out to surprise everyone, the principal researcher included."
Well put Boogins. The more Dr. Alkon and his team at BRNI uncovered the biochemical mechanism of Bryostatin's efficacy the more astounded they were that in addition to stimulating PKCe and synaptic regeneration it also reduced amyloid plaque and tau tangles.
Dr. Alkon said as much at the Bio CEO Investor Conference. At minute 17:06 he says “something that we couldn’t anticipate, in addition,(of Bryostatin’s stimulation of PKCe and synaptogenesis) is it takes care of the degenerative changes of toxic soluble A Beta Amyloids and toxic Tau.”
https://www.veracast.com/webcasts/bio/ceoinvestor2017/18111483071.cfm
I strongly recommend to anyone who is a NTRP investor to listen to this 28 minute presentation.
Maple tree, I am confident we will see the Ph2b study showing significant improvement in advanced AD patients.
We have a coherent causative theory expounded by a top scientist in the AD research field, Dr. Alkon, and we have a safe drug, Bryostatin, that in animal and Compassionate use patients has shown efficacy.
Neurotrope has not sold any stock into the market prior to results, there is no insider selling, and the recent modest incentive stock option grants to Dr. Alkon and management were not discounted to market price.
The company has mentioned in public forums of applying for fast track FDA status, an open label continuation Ph2b study, a Phase3 study, the Fragile X study and has completed licensing of synthetic Bryostatin from Stanford University research chemists.
Dr. Wilke and Dr. Alkon have publically indicated they would welcome a BP partner and have taken steps to make that possible by increasing the authorized share count allowing the company to sell shares to a BP for equity in NTRP.
All of the above reflects the confidence that the company has in the results to be released Monday morning.
Adam Feuerstein is running a poll on twitter (what a nice guy).
Of course the results are meaningless as maybe 5% of those voting have even a minimal grasp of the underlying science (but heck I voted):
"Predict outcome of Monday's $NTRP bryostatin Alzheimer's study":
https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&q=%24ntrp&src=typd
Thanks for posting that. With the insight we have as a result of Dr. Alkon's research Lisa Genova's focus on synaptic loss, in her presentation, is prescience.
By definition, Neurotrope is a low float stock. This article is a good primer on the topic and discusses many issues that could affect trading in NTRP next week:
A Conversation About Low Float Stocks and Why Traders Should Understand Them
• By Stefan Cheplick (@scheplick) editor @stocktwits |
• May 19th, 2016
As a recent example, John McAfee’s new company has caught everyone’s attention. Most of that interest comes from the fact its stock price has been spiking since McAfee took $MGT over through a reverse merger. At one point, it had climbed more than 1,000% in just 2 weeks. But why was it spiking like this? One reason could be its low float. The following message was shared while $MGT was just starting to trade higher:
What does this message mean? Why should we understand it? The following Q&A details our conversation with Dave Kelly (the trader who shared the above message and one who has a fairly extensive background in trading). We hope this talk can help new traders and investors better understand the market.
1. In your opinion what defines a low float stock?
For me any stock with a float fewer than 15 million tradable shares is low float. Keep in mind that the float is different than the shares outstanding. The shares outstanding include restricted shares that are given to insiders and require permission from the SEC to be traded. So the shares outstanding is usually a higher number than the float. The float is the number of shares that the public can trade.
2. Do you think there are risks AND rewards to low float stocks? What are they?
RISKS: Low float stocks can be very risky to hold because they can have violent moves in either direction. With so few shares available to trade, the impact on supply and demand can be significant. This is especially true if the company behind the stock is involved in a newsworthy event. Because news can drive the price, they are susceptible to organized “short and distort” campaigns. In addition to this, low float stocks are usually micro caps or very small caps; this adds additional risk for anyone considering holding them long term. In my experience, many of them are not even investable but they can become very tradeable under the right circumstances.
REWARDS: Because the moves to the upside can also be dramatic, there can be great reward in trading them. A few examples that come to mind that I’ve traded are MGT (the last week), DGLY (in late 2014), and APT (also in late 2014). I can’t think of one from 2015, which illustrates that the really good opportunities don’t come around that often.
If you are trading a low float stock, it’s important to look for liquidity; you don’t want to get stuck holding shares that you cannot sell (prior to a news event, these stocks do not generally have much liquidity – which is trading volume). However, since news is what usually drives these stocks to be tradeable, there tends to be a ton of liquidity in the ones that are good trading opportunities. In the three I mentioned above, you have John McAfee announced as Chairman of the Board and CEO (MGT), civil unrest due to police shootings and a call for body warn cameras (DGLY), and the Ebola crisis (APT) – these are pretty big news events and they usually cause me to look at the float size of any stock that may benefit. I don’t short low float stocks. I’m not a fan of infinite risk.
3. One common thing we see about low float stocks is this “hard to borrow” or “shares unavailable to short” message sent by brokers. Help new traders and investors understand this.
In order to short a stock, you must borrow the shares from a broker. Since the available shares in low float stocks is so small, there is often nothing available to borrow. It’s similar to a stock with a high short interest; at some point the shares that a broker can loan out become scarce. I do suspect that there is “naked short selling” in some of these low-float stocks but that’s another story – and another risk, come to think of it.
4. Do you think activity in low float stocks is the sign of a cycle beginning or ending – a market top or bottom?
I believe the Dow Theory says something about a rally in low quality stocks that is not confirmed by a rally in high quality stocks is a bearish signal. I think I read that in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (which is a great book by the way). Ok, I digress, I see rallies in low float stocks as news driven, so I don’t make any correlation to the overall market.
Any final words of advice for anyone who finds themselves watching,
trading, or analyzing these stocks? Be very cautious! I always shorten my timeframes and try to never hold them overnight. And as always, practice a good risk management strategy. You can read about my risk management style right here.
http://blog.stocktwits.com/lets-talk-about-low-float-stocks-a-conversation-with/
It could be for one day, one week, etc. It just reflects the demand from shorts, Hedge Funds, day traders. You never know.
McMagyar, investing in Neurotrope is all about the science.
The company was created and capitalized based on the research of Dr. Alkon and his team.
I have yet to read any post on this board that can refute the underlying assumptions of Dr. Alkon’s research. Other detractors, such as Adam Feuerstien at The Street, while skeptical, never address the data. So here are three statements for any would be critics that question the science to challenge:
--Dr. Alkon has spent a good part of his career at the NIH and at BRNI demonstrating the relationship between the decrease in synaptic density and the progression of Alzheimer’s disease. Can that relationship be disproved?
-- Dr. Alkon has established that increasing protein kinase C epsilon (PKCe) in the brain encourages synaptic regeneration. Any proof to the contrary?
--Dr. Alkon has shown in animal models and in Compassionate Use patients that Bryostatin-1 in activating PCKe and promoting synaptic growth can treat/reverse Alzheimer’s symptoms. Any cogent arguments to the contrary?
Really, where did you get that bit of misinformation? I hope it wasn't from Lane Simonian on Seeking Alpha.
Not exactly, the interest rate is what the Broker charges. That is not what you get. Schwab, for example, splits the borrow cost with you so you would get 50% in your example. Also, divide by 365 days. Schwab makes out like a bandit - half of the interest on your loaned shares.
Did you ask how much the borrow was? Your broker will pay you about half what they charge the day traders and Hedge Funds. Recently, it has been over 100%.
Judging from the three quarter of a million shares traded today most of the short position has been liquidated. The smart Hedge Funds and day traders covered. They will be back after data release if they see an opportunity.
As for Adam Feuerstein, Alfredo Fontanini, and fellow travelers who is to say they will not go from skeptic to believer on study results if there is money to be made.
Looks like a mini short panic. Shorts are on the wrong side of todays trade.
Holding a short position through the data release is plain dumb.
One disgruntled employee - so what.
They are one of the top firms in the field:
2017 CRO Leadership Award
Worldwide was recognized by Life Science Leader’s 2017 CRO Leadership Awards. This program recognized performance in five core categories (capabilities, compatibility, expertise, quality and reliability) across three groups – “Big Pharma,” “Small Pharma,” and “Overall.” Worldwide came away a winner in 12 of the 15 categories.
They have won many other awards in their field. Here is the link:
https://www.worldwide.com/about-us/awards-recognition/
The most bullish thing I have read about Neurotrope today is Adam Feueerstein's tweet this morning:
Adam Feuerstein?
Verified account
@adamfeuerstein 44m
44 minutes ago
More
About $NTRP — We’ll know Monday morning if they found a reporter willing to take the news under embargo. I’m hearing they’re shopping it.
The last sentence says it all. Ask yourself who the heck would be shopping a story if the news was going to be bad??
Don't you have any opinion on the research of Dr. Alkon and the science that led to the founding and capitalization of Neurotrope?
It is all about the science.
So what. If the data is positive it will change the entire research field for AD. That is something you will have to address.
NTRP Pre Market up on volume: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ntrp/premarket
NTRP is not an OTC company. NASDAQ
What is your prediction on the study results?
You got it backwards. First the PR and then the CC. That is how it is usually done.
The press release says: "will issue a press release announcing results of top-line data from its 148 patient, Phase 2 clinical trial in moderate to severe Alzheimer's Disease, on Monday May 1, 2017, at 6:30 am, Eastern Time. A conference call will follow at 8:30 am Eastern Time on that date."
If the data was poor there would be no CC.
New Seeking Alpha article:
Neurotrope BioScience: An Interesting Binary Event
Must Read|Apr. 26, 2017 3:28 PM ET| About: Neurotrope, Inc. (NTRP)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4065660-neurotrope-bioscience-interesting-binary-event
Looking ahead a forward split of the stock will be imperative if we get good Ph2b study results. The float is still probably 3 million shares or so. Miniscule!
I doubt many of the outstanding warrants have been exercised prior to the news release. If the news is negative the warrants will be worthless. If you were holding for the news why pay up just to have the shares in your account. Of course, some have been exercised for sale or to sell on the news.
A forward split will increase liquidity. That will allow Funds to take a position and with the Russell Indexes due for rebalancing give the Market Makers inventory to work with. I am not sure Neurotrope would qualify for the Russell indexes with such a small float.
Retail investors also will be more likely to invest if the stock price does not appear to be stratospheric. Good optics are important for small investors.
As someone posted, a 10 to 1 forward split would be welcome.
I don't place much significance on Pre Market trading but the last trade was up $2.21 on 500 shares.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ntrp/premarket
Both Adam Feuerstein and Alfredo Fontanini on Twitter tweeted negative comments on NTRP's chances of positive Ph2b results.
Neither of them have ever understood or addressed the science of synaptic loss and the mechanism of Bryostatin in treating AD.
I predict they will be proved wrong.
https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=default&q=%24ntrp&src=typd
Exactly donsker, once the Top Line results are out it is a new ball game.
Rather than obsess about charts and the stock structure of Neurotrope would be critics should address the science of Synaptic Loss and its consequences and treatment.
NTRP now subject to FINRA Rule 6190
(RCB) Effective April 2013National securities exchanges and FINRA implemented the "limit up/limit down" mechanism (FINRA Rule 6190) to combat market volatility. The regulation mandates that trades are not allowed outside the specified price band in listed equity securities. The price band will be set at a percentage level above and below the average price of the security over the immediately preceding five-minute period.
This will give the Market Makers more control (and help prevent big losses if they do not have enough stock in their inventory and the price has a big upside move).
If the data is good all the cheap shares in the float will NOT be looking to take profits.
The big money will be made when a BP invests in the company.
Retail has already bought and profited. Some of us are up about 300%.
Investing in Neurotrope is all about the science. The company was created and capitalized based on the research of Dr. Alkon and his team.
I have yet to read any post on this board that can refute the underlying assumptions of Dr. Alkon’s research. Other detractors, such as Adam Feuerstien at The Street, while skeptical, never address the data. So here are three statements for any would be critics that question the science to challenge:
--Dr. Alkon has spent a good part of his career at the NIH and at BRNI demonstrating the relationship between the decrease in synaptic density and the progression of Alzheimer’s disease. Can that relationship be disproved?
-- Dr. Alkon has established that increasing protein kinase C epsilon (PKCe) in the brain encourages synaptic regeneration. Any proof to the contrary?
--Dr. Alkon has shown in animal models and in Compassionate Use patients that Bryostatin-1 in activating PCKe and promoting synaptic growth can treat/reverse Alzheimer’s symptoms. Any cogent arguments to the contrary?
Torchlight Announces Successful Vertical Test in its latest Midland Basin Well
MarketwiredApril 24, 2017
PLANO, TX--(Marketwired - April 24, 2017) - Torchlight Energy Resources, Inc. (TRCH) ("Torchlight" or the "Company"), today announced that it has successfully tested the Flying B Ranch #2 vertical well in the Lower Wolfcamp A and Upper Wolfcamp B sections. The well is still in the flowback process and improving during clean-up of the 2000 barrels of frac load remaining. The well is currently testing at ~20 barrels of oil per day with associated gas which has yet to be measured. This test provides confirmation for the second horizontal bench in the Hazel Project. Results from the first two Flying B Ranch wells have established the Lower Dean/Upper Wolfcamp A and the Lower Wolfcamp A / Upper Wolfcamp B formations.
Next steps for the Flying B Ranch #2 well are to test the Leonard interval and frac it to prove up a third horizontal bench. Once the frac is completed and the Leonard zone tested, the Company expects to place the well back on pump and produce sales. The frac procedure is currently being scheduled.
"This vertical test was a very important and successful milestone for Torchlight and its partners," stated John Brda, Torchlight Energy's CEO. "This test validates our theory that commercial production of oil and gas from horizontal development in multiple stacked pay zones across different areas of our lease is achievable.
As we approach the Leonard we are hopeful to prove up the potential of a third bench in our Hazel project, which will add significant value to the acreage. We are very pleased with the results and excited to move forward on our next horizontal target in June. Our vertical tests to date are from a single stage frac, whereas, our horizontal wells may have as many as 50 stages depending on the interval."
The Flying B Ranch #3H is being permitted and will be spud sometime in mid to late June. This will be the first horizontal test in the project for Torchlight. The Company plans to begin with a vertical pilot to collect scientific information and then immediately drill a ~7500' lateral leg.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/torchlight-announces-successful-vertical-test-120000633.html
Due to the fact that there is no science to refute any of Dr. Alkon's research.
If you believe the rest of the AD research field is not aware that NTRP is on the cusp of a paradigm shift in the cause and treatment of AD you would be mistaken. They are all watching, particularly the BP companies that have had discussions with NTRP.
We will know results next week.
Momentous Alzheimer’s Disease Readouts
Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 10:01AM | by Michael Bigger | Comments Off
Neurotrope (NTRP) will release its Bryostatin Phase 2b top line data this week (company’s guidance). The primary efficacy endpoint is based on Severe Impairment Battery Scale (SIB). Entry criteria was based on the MMSE score. Secondary efficacy endpoints were based on – Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI), and Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE).
Considering 70% of all phase two drug trials fail, and even more so with Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) indications, this will be a cage fighting, raw, win or lose, zero or hero event.
We are long NTRP and we wrote about our thesis right here. We are comfortable with our position given our utility curve, our assessment of the situation, its risk and reward potential.
We have the utmost respect for investors going into the event with a short or long position based on their assessment. This is not easy; it shows conviction with a position under imperfect information.
Given the history of AD trials results, it is understandable that many label this situation as a failure from the get go. To be clear, we are handicapping the probability of success and its associated payoff much differently.
http://biggercapital.squarespace.com/biggercapital-investment/2017/4/23/momentous-alzheimers-disease-readouts.html