Workin' on it
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Out of the poop comes the flowers.
The environment small biotechs have to mature in isn’t favorable until the adversaries get their arms twisted. That is coming and many here will enjoy it.
There might be a short, short squeeze but it won't be astronomical. When it hits 35 or 40, with all the millions of shares out there in impatient hands, it will be a fire sale. The hedges will get their 15m shares without too much fuss.
imo
This is a fair understanding of the 2b/3 data, most here are in far better shape than they thought. Ignore the FUD, logical fallacies and firehoses of falsehood sprinkled into the Anavex narrative.
Thanks to Piotr Peter work here.
Here's an observation from the Adult Rett Syndrome trial, by Dr. Randi Hagerman. You can read her full report by clicking on the yellow sticky post above.
One patient that stands out that I just recently saw, was able to swallow her food better. She didn’t have any problems choking now that she’s on the active medication.
MJ has to listen to his experts.
His experts must have their reasons.
But MJ has his reasons too. At least, that's the MJ I'm used to seeing.
No RCT has been done with dosing at bedtime. This would allow a greater percentage of participants at higher doses.
The OLE might be introducing this regimen?
Remember the greater improvements seen with the higher dosing speech in 2020.
Remember the better than expected ADL comment after Ctad, 2022.
Your report was appreciated.
We're in the enviable position of holding shares in Anavex but like the employee who stares at the clock when it get close to quitting time, sometimes think they see it running backwards.
Yes, the many guises of distortion vary but we can't expect things to change as long as social media can invade the sanctity of any enterprise.
In this alternate reality, the complex challenges of changing a paradigm can just be blinked away with a message board post. It is a sad and endlessly disappointing world where good news is constantly twisted into bad news.
Thank you powerwalker,
Your contributions to us and the Company are important to me.
Thank you Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes
Your report gives substance to the reality of real people tackling an impossible disease, doing well, amid all the noise the Media promotes about gun violence. But they have no time to report on history making science breakthroughs.
Shameful.
Anavex is moving at glacial pace. Their AI data analysis is nuts but works and doesn't kill you.
More than anyone can say about the mabs.
If we're lucky we'll have a few brain cells left for something to try and save.
Institutional investors should be comfortable no matter the wait, their ranks are replaced when some fade away.
If I were Dr. M I'd make anyone over 50 go through a metal detector before entering. Or maybe appear on a screen from backstage with an effigy at the lectern. At least wear some kevlar, these people are desperate. It's like bringing a busload of starving people to a buffet and saying, doesn't this look and smell good? Sorry, but we're not serving any today.
A circumstance not fully understood until it arrives but then it's too late.
Suspect the inhale of shares for the exhale needed for the day's downward manipulation? Looking at other promising stocks that have much lower volume, I don't see that late day volume. I think a lot of the volume in Anavex is shorts playing ping pong.
What are your thoughts?
Guessing MM making a large bid ask spread to either discourage retail from grabbing shares or if they do, making it easy to profit off them.
If there’s volume, then something else. ?
Dozens of Super Responders with Blarcamesine.
Safe, orally available, affordable, convenient.
Don’t overthink it.
9 bucks a share today, going, going, gone in a short time.
Anavex Life Sciences. Welcome to the New World.
Troubling facts, Tred.
Dr. Missling’s moves are well thought out. I believe Blarcamesine is as good as he says it is.
Now he wants to sell it.
Once it gets a foothold in the market, it will not stop. People will demand it.
Upwards of 20% or more Super Responders with Blarcamesine.
Safe, orally available, affordable, convenient.
Don’t overthink it.
9 bucks a share today, going, going, gone in a short time.
Anavex Life Sciences. Welcome to the New World.
The FDA can delay or promote whatever they want, whenever they want. They have opportunities or tools to accomplish this during the Trial Process.
There may have been times delays were encountered when BP's might have suggested to them, delaying the advancement of something might be a good idea.
An important factor, not always determining is, whatever is being advanced actually works and does the job it was designed to do, ie; it's not garbage. Then there is the Fickled Finger of Fate effect which can only be overcome by advancing the product at least a half dozen time zones away, preferably, a dozen. An example of this is Australian TV promoting Anavex, while Main Stream Media in the good ole' USA hasn't heard of it.
Hence the strategy voiced by Dr. M years ago, you'll see why we did it this way when it's all done.
Rett will be first, the landscape will miraculously change for AD after that.
As frol points out the blood biomarker will speed the NDA and AA for Alzeheimer’s. In the meantime, there is cash, plenty of new trials and more data to mine.
Sorry Nidan
Any data given tomorrow will be received in the usual fashion, longs enjoying, others just ripping it.
There is really nothing major that needs to be added to what we already know. What statistic is going to move the needle if dozens of Super Responders, great safety and multitude of other positives hasn’t?
The Market is acting like a 2 year old with it’s eyes closed pretending Anavex doesn’t exist. They despise good news from Anavex because it means they are losing the CNS race to the prize, Alzheimer’s. They keep making false claims about their mabs and bold predictions about coverage but it hasn’t happened and it won’t. Those things are just horrible.
I look forward to hearing what ever Dr. Missling has to share with us. Mostly I would like to hear the words, NDA and licensing, preferably together.
We know we have a winner but we would like to know where the finish line is. I don’t think that’s too much to ask.
I agree.
No one has had a better shot at it.
20 to 100 Super Responders, best safety in CNS, orally available, upregulates good genes, down regulates bad, I’m leaving out a lot of stuff.
Ok, let’s see if he has good data. Good idea.
When 10 out of 11 Scientists on the Adu Advisoty board reject and the FDA approves, then 3 Scientists resign in protest, it’s hard to make sense of that, you know?
What the FDA wants? We’re starting to learn it isn’t good Science.
The enemy is convincing the skeptics on the FDA panel to vote for approval.
The fact is, there are Super Responders. Along with an excellent safety profile, Blarcamesine is in a different category than the mabs.
They need to be compared so people can see the difference but with the Markets denial Blarcamesine even exists, there is just the B.S. we see here on the boards, non stop.
Truth is, the mabs are garbage and the Market wants to profit from garbage because that’s all it has, so they focus on keeping Anavex out of the spotlight.
The denial at CTAD, statements like “never before seen results,” when talking about Adu, Leq, and Don.
You rig the game, millions, suffer and someone will notice.
Super Responders, more than a few, excellent safety record over eight years in different populations, huge unmet need, ancillary positive side effects, the list goes on. There will be a New Drug Application to the FDA but there are other things happening too.
Please allow me to introduce myself, I’m a man of wealth and taste..
If six million people have a life threatening disease and there is no adequate, approved or available alternatives?
Would the FDA consider approving a drug that shows a good percentage of efficacy and safety to help six million people from continued suffering and certain death?
You must be right. The chart is preventing, not only the effect of good news on the pps but the possibility of good news itself.
Someone should notify Investor Relations to let them know good news isn't possible this week.
Re: oldandintheway post# 414199
Sunday, May 07, 2023 10:51:51 PM
Post# of 414230
Does the chart negate the positive affect good news can have on the pps?
Oh I don't know, use your imagination.
Really? The run up in December, June 2021?
He also likes to throw in a twist, usually quite positive, when revealing after a long wait. The most recent that comes to mind is the genetic response from the PDD trial. That was very powerful stuff that puts blarcamesine in a different brighter light.
I don't think he can make things like that up or create them out of thin air but might come as a bonus for the extra time taken to analyze data between trials.
Like Blarcamesine itself, well worth waiting for. Not that I want to wait longer, sooner the better, Anavex can continue to improve things after approval too, I hope.
Does the chart negate the positive affect good news can have on the pps?
I don't think so.
Some of us guesstimated on how many Super Responders would emerge from the P2b/3 last year.
I guessed 93. My reasoning was along the lines of the 80% WT Sr1, the mild or better AD diagnosis and more stringent selection of candidates for the trial. Possibly other factors having to do with how the P2b/3 trial was run compared to the P2a.
The fact is there are Super Responders. That along with the safety profile puts Blarcamesine in a different category than the mabs. They need to be compared so that people can see the difference but with the Markets denial that Blarcamesine even exists, there is just the B.S. that has been permeating this board for 8 years.
All this B.S. that Anavex hasn't proven anything. Anavex hasn't submitted an NDA, that is true.
The more pertinent truth is, the mabs are garbage and the Market wants to profit from garbage and keep Anavex out of the spotlight for as long as possible, so it can.
This is why you maintain Anavex will need another P3 trial.
Yes 76 super responders defined as improving over baseline is a lot and very likely highly unrealistic.
20’ish would do and a great signal on which to design the next P3 PM trial, or with much lesser chance a P4 on the back of an accelerated approval supported by disease specific biomarkers.
It would seem to contradict a regulatory authority whose stated purpose is:
FDA is responsible for advancing the public health by helping to speed innovations that make medical products more effective, safer, and more affordable and by helping the public get the accurate, science-based information they need to use medical products and foods to maintain and improve their health.
https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/what-we-do
And with two approvals for Mabs, that produce zero super responders, plus the risk of brain bleeds and death, you make this dire prediction?
Please share your logic for this confusing statement.
That is a lot of super responders, george. That would be great if it came to pass.
One thing that is also great is, there are ANY SUPER RESPONDERS.
What would ONE SUPER RESPONDER BE WORTH TO THE MAB MACHINES? Yes, just one from the whole combined lot of them.
Anybody? Anybody? Bueller?
And they want how much for their...let' see, what to call it?
A therapy? No.
Certainly not a cure.
A treatment? Yes, it's a treatment, or a mistreatment, better yet.
And how much are they asking, for this, mistreatment?
Ooooohhh. Ouch!
And from the Naysayer Choir, Dr. Missling's big crime is, we have to wait a little longer?
I'd say, Blarcamesine is worth waiting for. But if you're really in a rush for something, you've got 30 or 40k you don't need and you don't mind risking a brain bleed or worse, there's a mab out there that will tide you over.
Good post. Anavex is not blowing smoke.
I enjoy yours as well, thanks.
Tred,
Nice post.
Hi 273forme,
Any particular likes or dislikes you could share with us about what Anavex is doing?