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They did not look like straight sells. There was some buying as well. About 400+K just passed. The PPS dropped from $2.70 to $2.63.
Not sure what to make of it yet.
Another 100+K
Another big block. 82+K
210+K shares just went thru. No real change to PPS.
Personally I think this might be the most significant (and possibly impactful) decision under Lombardo to date.
Good stuff from multiple posters today on both sides of the issue. I appreciated the different viewpoints and arguments.
Again, very well articulated.
Smasse, again I totally respect where you are coming from. I can argue my position but I won't argue that I'm right but that you, or Mortmann, or FBG, etc, etc are wrong.
I have no love lost for this BOD, or even Lombardo, as I'm still not exactly sure what to make of him. But I think the biggest difference between us is that you see risk only in authorizing shares. I see the risk on both sides. I also know that giving the company more shares gives them the ability to leverage a direct placement or secondary as a legit option to counter lowball offers they may be receiving from other companies right now.
Voting to authorize more shares does not mean I trust them to do the right thing. It just means I understand how negotiations like this work and how beneficial having options at the bargaining table can be. It's a potential Joker card in one's hand.
Will they squander those shares? It's possible. I'm still voting YES to the share authorization.
All the best to you.
But does your position have to be mutually exclusive?
I actually agree with you that the hill ahead is too big for ADXS to climb. I don't believe they will ever achieve what is possible with LM science because they are too small, too poor, and have no powerful friends willing to help and protect them. This company should be sold before they create a spaghetti bowl of licensing deals that create confusion and dilute the overall enterprise value just to collect dimes on the dollar today to remain independent. I'd rather issue another 20 Million shares tomorrow than do that.
But does that automatically mean one votes NO on the share authorization? What if those shares are part of the bridge needed to get the company to a sale?
I totally respect the principle behind the position to vote NO on the share authorization. However, even though I know they may hose investors again, I believe that reality and pragmatism demand a YES vote on the share authorization under these circumstances.
Beware a Pyrrhic victory.
Well articulated FBG. I think yours is the best argument yet to vote against the share authorization.
I voted for it, because I feel Lombardo should get what he is asking for. While I am not yet convinced he is the guy to get ADXS out of this mess, like it or not, at the this point I feel we are all at the stage of "in for a penny, in for a pound."
In case he is the guy who can right the ship, we'll never know if we restrict his ability to maneuver and negotiate from a stronger position. He can't threaten with something he doesn't have.
Absolutely. Regardless of one's personal opinion of DOC, or the hypothetical debate of whether or not his strategy might have worked if the PPS hadn't been relentlessly crushed, the reality is that the BOD went all in on him. They gave away almost 5% of the company. They all paid themselves generous compensation packages, and then failed.
The entire BOD deserves to go. Even if retail can't dictate their removal with their votes, every retail investor should vote NO to the entire BOD even if it only ends up being symbolic. Collectively the entire BOD has failed every investor...retail or institutional.
I voted. NO to the entire BOD. They need to be sent a message that Investors recognize their relative worthlessness. Most of this gang has been around for 10+ years and their track record is not impressive. The BOD desperately needs new blood. If this current BOD stays they might as well just sell the company now for whatever they can get. Because I have zero confidence these guys will ever lead this company anywhere.
YES to the share authorization. Don't cut your nose off to spite your face. As I mentioned yesterday, Lombardo is currently engaged in a game of chicken. We need him to win. Now is exactly the wrong time to limit any of his options.
YES to the employee stock purchase program.
YES to the auditor.
Oh I totally agree. That would also be the final confirmation they were getting ready to run this thing back up the flagpole. If Adage got a placement I would double my position the morning of the announcement.
If Adage somehow gets a private placement down here of a few million shares then we'll know for sure.
Just an observation...the volume across most of Biotech has been incredibly tepid the last couple of trading sessions. Many of the Bio names I follow are flat to down pennies on very low volume.
So this is not just an ADXS phenomenon.
Just to make myself clear, we may not see an immediate surge in the PPS. In fact we should expect the shorts to attack this hard. So this isn't about today.
The key to this announcement is that the timer on the pressure cooker has now started. The shorts realize their opportunities to cover at this low level may be coming to an end. And companies that ADXS is negotiating with may feel some added pressure that the competition could be raising their bids soon.
This is why I am voting YES to the share authorization and NO for every BOD member.
Now is the wrong time to do anything to restrict Lombardo's negotiating leverage. He is engaged in a very complicated game of chicken right now. We need him to win.
Exactly my point. This treatment option has $1B annual potential. The marketing rights could be very valuable to the right company.
I'm sure they have offers. This sounds to me like ADXS is telling interested parties they need to raise their offers.
Let's see what the next week brings. No guarantees but I could see why they would allow a gap in between those announcements (assuming they had a deal or were close to one).
Finally at least, this is a positive and tangible step in the right direction.
I also thought today's PPS action was quite weak considering the overall market. The only caveat I guess is that volume was light across the entire biotech sector, especially the small caps.
It's interesting that in a year where Big Pharma is flush with cash and chomping at the bit for M&A, that many small and mid cap Bios are still being shorted and suppressed and closer to yearly lows than yearly highs.
As I have said previously, I will be disappointed if they don't submit in February. I see no good reason for them to keep moving the goal posts.
Isn't the Fidelity selloff old news? This was reported here on the board last November? We knew Fidelity was down to 600k shares or so. I think they sold out during that last leg down from $4.50ish to under $3.
Somewhere the claim was made that Tony Lombardo's approach is to under promise and over deliver.
So I will be disappointed if they don't file the EU submission this month. Moving the goal posts from end of year to 1st Qtr, and then not filing until March would not be over delivering on anything. That's taking the slow boat to China.
Iggy, GBrown, Blue,
Absolutely agreed. The shorting and manipulation of pre-revenue bio's is a travesty.
When you watch the market swing so violently in such short time periods you know there are machine algos colliding with each other. What a freakin abomination.
I meant in relation to the speculation surrounding the EU filing, the proxy decisions, the retention bonus expirations, etc, etc all happening between now and the end of March.
But there are a number of events that will take place over the next 50 days. Things may have completely changed by the end of March, or not.
We will find out either way.
Agreed. We will know more in a month or so either way.
I have personally been a part of 5 M&A events. 5 out of 5 times the "retention bonuses" were paid to key individuals they wanted to retain for a period post M&A, to help with the transition...or wanted to retain pre-M&A while it was known the company was actively shopping itself to keep the business running smoothly.
However, this is the ADXS BOD we are talking about. So no guarantees they just weren't in panic mode when they decided to, or were forced to, terminate DOC and didn't want the place to crash and burn from a mass exodus of senior management. When those bonuses were given out it may have just been about business continuity and an attempt to firm up the PPS at that moment, with no specific future M&A event discussed or planned.
I don't know the exact answer to your question, but they did time their moves almost perfectly. They timed the crash to coincide with fiscal year end for most funds, followed by actual year end (additional retail tax selling).
I do know that if the speculative theory about Adage and friends is true, and if they actually do plan on running the PPS back up the flagpole at some point, they will keep some of their short shares remaining short until they are ready.
Then they will start covering a big chunk to start the run and as the volume surges and the chart is allowed to start repairing itself, they will begin to suck in all the retail and professional momentum traders. They will also time this in the hope that retail shorts then panic and start covering their shares and use that covering to add additional boost. Think of it as rocket fuel sitting on standby waiting for launch and they hold the match. What they are waiting for is some announcement by Advaxis that appears significant enough to justify the launch.
But for now that is just a speculative theory. We can only wait and see if this happens or not.
You keep saying that, and certainly you have the right to your own opinion.
But for those monitoring the PPS action over the last 3 months there have been a number of events that one might expect to have a more noticeable day to day or month to month impact on the PPS...
- Institutional fiscal year close
- Institutions dumped shares
- Institutions added shares
- Year end tax selling
- Tax reform bill that will lead to repatriation of Billions in Pharma
- Rallies in IBB and XBI
- Canine approval (proof of concept)
- Pending EU submission
- Pending launch of NEO partnership w/Amgen
- Preliminary anal results
- Request for authorization of additional 30M shares
- Dwindling cash position
- Pending CMO hire, possible CEO hire
- Etc
Many of those events could be spun as negative or positive, and typically in most stocks from Qtr to Qtr, one group or another will try to push their agenda on a stock and retail will follow that lead.
But here in ADXS no matter what the PPS remains locked down. It doesn't rise and it doesn't collapse. It just treads water.
My point isn't whether this is Good, Bad, or Indifferent. My point is that a much bigger fish has a plan, and when they are ready they will release their vise like grip on the PPS. I am not sure what will happen but I am curious to see how it unfolds.
We can certainly agree to disagree. No problems.
Sure, no problems. Take the puritanical hardline in the absolute sense if you want. Your choice. Just don't wonder why ADXS can't compete with other biotechs for the best talent, and if that might cost them somehow progressing the science. For better or worse the reality is that options are a big part of compensation packages in corporate America.
Personally I think it would be much more beneficial for investors to target their wrath over the PPS where it's warranted.
On stock options:
Just my opinion but I think it's wrong to suggest or even try to prevent rank and file employees from exercising their stock options unless the PPS is at a certain price. It could also impact the talent acquisition and retention abilities of the company.
If someone wants or wants to try and build conditions around RSUs or even Options for Senior Management and BOD, that's one thing. But the employee options should be left alone. They have the right to count on that potential income if needed whatever the PPS is.
So from a cursory reading of this board one might have assumed that on Thursday ADXS cured anal cancer but then on Friday, OMG they are dropping 30M shares on us at $3 or lower.
My position…
I fully support the share authorization. I get the bitterness over the PPS, but if you are against this then you are either willing to cut your nose off to spite your face or you might have zero understanding of how pre-revenue biotechs operate. This is par for the course. The company has a fiduciary responsibility to be in position to maintain itself as a going concern. This is also strategic in that it most definitely does help them in negotiations with other companies who might be trying to get them to bite on lowball offers.
Here is a statement that might upset some. I might actually prefer dilution offering shares versus "Interim CEO" Lombardo selling off pieces of the company. I’d rather raise $60M dollars selling 20M shares at $3 than raise $60M dollars selling off the prime rights to HOT, AXAL, and HER2.
Here's why.
ADXS is very close to submitting for EU approval. That will start the clock ticking. In addition, as with canine and anal results, along with prostrate later this year, ADXS appears to be inching closer towards enough proof that their platform works, increases a patient’s chance for survival, and is SAFE (as Hovacare explained so well). So I am not sure this is the time to sell off the technology for dimes on the dollar just to avoid a dilutive offering.
Notice in the paragraph above I didn't say definite proof...I said ENOUGH proof. There is a threshold of proof a biotech can reach BEFORE commercialization and revenue that provides enough evidence to Big Pharmas that they have a valuable platform and products and are worth the gamble of a sizeable investment. ADXS appears to be very close to that threshold.
On the other side of the coin…
The entire BOD deserves to be replaced. All of them. They have been on the job for about a decade or more. Their handling of the DOC situation alone makes them worthy of replacement. They decided to allow him to gain ownership of almost 5% of the company…BEFORE his leadership or strategy proved to be successful…and then fired him with no real succession plan in place. So yeah, IMO at this point they have all proven they deserve to be replaced.
I will vote YES on the share authorization but NO for every single BOD member.
And for all the breathless drama over the last 72 hours…ADXS PPS ended the day at $2.95. For those keeping track…
11/15/17 - Closed at $2.98
11/30/17 - Closed at $2.99
12/14/17 - Closed at $3.05
12/29/17 - Closed at $2.84
01/16/18 - Closed at $2.92
01/22/18 - Closed at $3.01
01/23/18 - Closed at $3.06
01/24/18 - Closed at $3.03
01/25/18 - Closed at $3.18
01/26/18 - Closed at $2.95
For anyone who sincerely believes the above is just the natural laws of supply and demand at work, I have some bridges in the desert for sale. I am promising you a 1000% return on your investment if you buy one from me.
As I have mentioned several times in recent months, they have this pegged at $3 (give or take 10% in either direction). So far today is more of the same treading water trading.
They could take this to $4 or $5 in a couple days if they wanted. Just like they crashed it more than $2 in September by strategically timing and deploying only about 500k short shares.
Hmmm, Adage is not a 10% owner. They are at 9.87%.
Adage - 9.87%
Amgen - 7.34%
BlackRock Fund Advisors - 5.12%
Dan O'Conner - 4.24%
Unfortunately they've been doing this for 2 1/2 years. This is par for the course for them.
They refuse to allow the chart to repair itself. They want to keep it broken.
When ADXS was at $27, I measured in about 6'7". In recent months I am down to 5'2".
I think for me the bigger question is what higher price can we hold? Right now the gang pinning us at $3 have demonstrated total control over the PPS.
Absolutely. The shorts successfully attacked the Amgen deal and took the PPS right back down in 30 days. These kinds of pops have easy for them to push back down.
In order for any sustainable PPS rise to happen they need a big deal. If they can't or aren't finding that deal then they should just sell the brilliant science to a company actually capable of moving it forward.
Well thought out points. I would be lying if I said I didn't find it puzzling / concerning as well.
Professional hedge fund shorts aren't always right, but in general they are smarter, have better information, have the rules rigged in their favor, and have "bigger guns" than retail investors.
Usually a company with a stubborn short contingent dug in like ticks needs really strong management and powerful institutional friends...real protectors. I'm not sure ADXS has either of those at this moment.
Ironically remember during the weeks leading up to the Amgen deal where the buying volume appeared to pick up but the PPS was still pinned at $8 for what seemed like forever? It was weird action and several of us commented on it at the time.
Later we found Amgen was buying during that period, and likely so were others with knowledge of the deal who were loading leading up to the announcement.
It will be interesting to see if Lombardo is capable of delivering anything of lasting value.