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need a major event to change the dynamic, otherwise, price will stay in a narrow band.
BTW, with regard to 2017, I wrote this in a post back in May after the 10K or Q was out:
<<Yes, and sadly, this tells it all (unless someone has something to the contrary):
Drilling requirements:
PEL 112: Drill one well - January 10, 2019
PEL 444: Drill one well - January 11, 2021
I'd like to qualify the above by saying: "Un-Freakin' Believeable"
Anyone who puts a positive spin on this is delusional.
GLTA>>
Also wondering out loud if the data sharing agreement will generate some interest from the other parties' investors and followers?
Slow day, just musing...
OT, but interesting...
I read somewhere that Occid Petroleum is starting to dust-off their rigs in the Permian. Cost of extraction is $40/bbl. My un-learned opinion is that oil will settle into a narrow range for the foreseeable future.
Also, a report from Texas indicates that there is now a shortage of oil workers after having laid-off 350K of them.
prima facie, TGC is looking more interesting; but I'd never discount HENC's ability to come through. To TGC's credit, they do talk in a more dynamic and forward thinking tone; whereas, HENC has a more knee-jerk, push-come-to-shove sensibility, for me, at least.
From a true outsider's viewpoint, I'm scared cr#pless of both. I wonder if a joint PR peace offering could smooth things over, if for no other purpose than to appease investor or potential investor fears resulting from this protracted animosity.
it would be nice if you and tchauncy can concur on something positive vis a vis next step(s), instead of reliving the Civil War.
price-wise, we're not out of the woods by any means. too much time from now until a major event. But...i agree, it would be nice to have a weekly check-in by someone in the know.
I didn't check, but are you sure about the sells? They seem a bit favorable for a MM to let them go at that price.
interesting activity today...
updates are always welcome....
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/terra-nova-completes-data-exchange-130000255.html
well....when HENC finds a new partner, our WI will go down; but will giving up a piece of the action cause the pps to dip or go up?
has it been baked-in already?
too man questions ---- and too much time from now until 2019.
there you go again, making me think too much.
I don't know where the pps will go, but you will find supposed "bargains" all along the way until 2019. Today's a good example...looks like 76k, or so, were sold and gobbled up at an alleged fire sale price. From .0212 to .024. Say you picked up 50K at the low of .0212. With the way everything is going, there's no way you can call the bottom...ESPECIALLY since we have to go through FOUR tax selloff dates!! Dec 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019
So, that .0212 could end up going below a penny. I don't really want to calculate the percentage drop....oh well.
Driving myself nuts whenever I dive into this.
GLTA
there's no shame in what buc said.
He reacted, as I'm sure many others here would have also, to the fact that the Pels are now smaller and the must drill by date is now 2 years later.
I could think of more choice words to use, but I'll refrain.
I commend buc for his honesty.
Don't forget, if one's source of info is constantly saying all this pie-in-sky stuff and then the thud of reality hits home, it's only natural to have a less-than-tempered visceral reaction.
The reality from where I sit is that I'd be grateful if we ever drill, and that it can be at the 11th hour (2019)....BUT, the hope is that TGC forces their hand. That about sums it up.
yes, indeed, those are the facts.
But...and not that I'm putting a positive spin on this - perish the thought - linear facts/info oftentimes do not result in the anticipated solution. That is, I've seen it too many times where one thinks a+b=c and it turns out d, f or g. I'm fairly certain that there will be some twists along the way, so I don't mind seeing TGC hastening a drill program and forcing HENC's hand....whatever happens, happens.
Re Drill one well - mgmt knew they would get an extension from 2017 to 2019 once they abandoned a portion of the lease.
Yes, and sadly, this tells it all (unless someone has something to the contrary):
Drilling requirements:
PEL 112: Drill one well - January 10, 2019
PEL 444: Drill one well - January 11, 2021
I'd like to qualify the above by saying: "Un-Freakin' Believeable"
Anyone who puts a positive spin on this is delusional.
GLTA
yes...and, your point?
Do we hit the snooze button until 2017?
very informative.
Are we to gather that you know for certain what the Governing Laws part of the agreement states? Does it stipulate specifically that any disputes must be initiated in Alberta? I find it almost impossible that an attorney would miss that clause in the contract.
thanks again for filling-in some of the gaps, though.
hey gump, yeah, time flies....
I think we paid our dues, it's about time we got something out of this.
Ha! Congrats!
Well...don't expect you to be a daily contributor...just a timely one.
Thanks
follow up....
Your current strategy of averaging down requires a significant spike in the SP before a 4th ptnr is announced. that's so there is cushion in place for the inevitable decline in price to a level that is still higher than your purchase price after the deal is done. (my sense is it will not be directly relational to percentage ownership after the deal closes)
I don't doubt that this can happen...but I'm very curious how HENC would value the deal? Extremely curious, in fact, at what equivalent SP the deal gets done.....
read this article...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-5-million-barrel-per-215123378.html;_ylt=AwrC1CjMDCpXe0sASWqTmYlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTEyNHZhZWZrBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMyBHZ0aWQDVklEMDNfMQRzZWMDc2M-
it's more about large E&P's, but still has meaning to us.
basically, this gist of it is, keep drilling no matter what!
I appreciate your keeping us informed. There's no question about the value you provide.
as for the company...yes, they appear to be on the up-and-up and wanting to do the right thing; but the right thing may be to hasten drilling (which I mentioned in another post). That's where logic and reality clash.
interesting and thanks for the update.
A few points....
Fourth partner = dilution for HENC holders --- why would you average down at this point? it can only go lower.
Logic re not drilling:
If you assume that oil prices will NEVER recover....DON'T DRILL.
If you assume that prices WILL recover....DRILL BEFORE THE RIG COSTS JUMP!
it's that freakin' simple.
the fact that you were unaware, highlights further your abandonment of this board.
whether you like it or not, everyone here follows what you say because of your proximity to HENC mgmt. as a result, you have a greater responsibility to pass along whatever you deem to be newsworthy. that's just how it is.
that said, I appreciate your surfacing and look forward, as I always did, to your insightful posts.
wish I could tell you.
on the flip side of this....
the only thing I can think of at this point is for TGC to force HENC's hand by moving rapidly to drill.
All in all, we're in the crapper, and more stuff is being piled on top of us.
Need some clear-thinking leadership; not hunker-down-for-a-long-winter types.
josey -
I'm not an IHUB subcriber; thanks for your message.
just glad it's not December.....price would have vaporized.
since mgmt will not move at all on drilling, expect December price to plummet to unimaginable depths.
selling at this point gets you very little.
say you want to unload 500k shares....and you're lucky enough to sell 100k at .025; then another 100k at .015; etc. average SP = approx .01 (generous)
so, for 500k shares, you'll net 5K
gar-bage
glad the company was looking out for our interests....
They could have sped things up by forcing the action as far as drilling goes; instead, they took the low road.
what a disaster.
at least we have until the end of July to stay on OTC.
a lot could happen from now till then...they could remain silent - par for the course - or, create a buzz - by some miracle - and engage a rig. or, whatever....
oh....and by the way...I see that Tchauncy is no longer a moderator.
there's a sad and telling commentary.
GLTA....I really mean it.
delisting = hibernation
obvious that they are no where near drilling, otherwise, they would not have delisted.
Is TGC next to hibernate?
Interesting that there are no rigs around....
true about caring....which leads me to this:
It would also be nice if a board moderator kept a regular schedule and threw out a bone every once in a while.
crazy rain.
get back safe.
I'd have been surprised if you heard any earth-shattering news.
I think it's radio silence from now until the required drill date.
Look out for the head fakes, but don't forget to wake me when oil passes $60bbl
Hey Buc,
Sad commentary about this board....no one gives a darn.
My 2 cents: they can engage anyone they want, give up a portion of their shares and drill. If the other party (TGC) does not pay their pro-rata share of costs, then tough toenails.
Part two of this is, no one in their right mind would buy-in at this point unless it's a fire-sale. Giving away the farm would not sit well with the dusty shareholders of HENC.
Back to hibernation until OPEC gets organized and endures the pain of freezing output...so they can inflict pain on the rest of the world.
Good night......
keep creeping....
I saw that US oil inventory was down "unexpectedly" by about 4mill bbls.
more un-expectations like that should make things interesting.
rig counts are way down.
good day, and GLTA
yes. Of course, I'm always open to being proved wrong!
yeah, it shows a commitment to drill, but I think it's pretty clear that we have to wait till 2017.
need to change our mindset....
HENC/TGC will likely not do anything until the next drilling deadline.
if, by some miracle, oil goes over $60 and stays there, things will change.
don't count on the miracle.
as oil goes to 40, 50 then 60.....all the frackers will be drilling, fracking and pumping away, thus tempering the price rise.
opec knows it, russia knows it, every oiler knows it.
GLTA
This was true when oil was $100+ bbl....their attitude has not changed with $40 bbl oil.
Hamil -
I'm not being slick or a wise guy.....they (HENC) are not motivated to do anything, nor have they EVER been motivated to move beyond a snail's pace.
HENC will not budge before the deadline. Our only hope is with TGC....yes, believe it! If TGC decides they want to move faster, then HENC has to react.
What else is unsettling is the the fact that our resident pundits (you know who they are) decided to go on hiatus.
Dysfunctional is a good word for this entire debacle.