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stkjunky......not looking for a reversal here, but a bounce and not a big one either. I appreciate your word of caution as well as your couple decades of experience trading and fundamental observations. I'm not convinced I'll get that bounce beyond the current 15 pips that's already occurred, but I'm watching and waiting with a tight stop.
Ok, well it does look like A/U is possibly close to a good reversal......so maybe next week can offer some substantial pips on it. I'm long now but have a tight stop at 89.5 and am not looking for the big reversal yet, just 20 pips or so.
Well it's definitely not a "textbook" TDI setup forming to my recognition, but both price and TDI fast line have crossed their trend lines on the 15 minute chart so it makes me wonder if we aren't in process of starting a move up on A/U. That's why I asked.
pennies......is the TDI showing a good bullish reversal setup pattern on A/U on the 15 minute chart beginning to form here now? Price is at the ADR low at this price point.
stkjunky......I won't further waste your time unless it pertains to one of the dollar pairs. Best success to you as well! I should say.....if I am successful, I can thank pennies and SG for it. Pennies especially because of all the time he has devoted. If not, well I can only blame myself I suppose. That or kick the dog and blame him, but he's chocolate lab and really is as good natured and well behaved dog as I could ask for, and is such a good hearted soul that I don't have it in me to do any more than scold him when he lays down on the floor in front of my path at night when lights are out and it's too dark to see him. I've tripped over him a couple times now and again, but again...I have only myself to blame. lol
stkjunky......I won't further waste your time unless it pertains to one of the dollar pairs. Best success to you as well! I should say.....if I am successful, I can thank pennies and SG for it. Pennies especially because of all the time he has devoted. If not, well I can only blame myself I suppose. That or kick the dog and blame him, but he's chocolate lab and really is as good natured and well behaved dog as I could ask for, and is such a good hearted soul that I don't have it in me to do any more than scold him when he lays down on the floor in front of my path at night when lights are out and it's too dark to see him. I've tripped over him a couple times now and again I have only myself to blame. lol
pennies and stkjunky......fundamentals aside, E/A is just under the weekly 38.2 fib level so I'm thinking that with the previous weekly high support being 1500 pips below current price, there's plenty of room for a pullback here even though there's thousands of pips between the 38.2 and the 76 or 88 fib levels on the weekly chart following any pullback that occurs whether near this 38.2 level or the 50% fib level 1500 pips above current price. Lots of opportunities on both sides of this weekly fib level.
Another thing to mention is the weekly horizontal line of support which was broken in the 1.54/1.55 price range. We are 655 approximate pips below that major weekly line of present resistance. Just something to consider.
pennies......"there it is" for me was "there it was"! During the twenty minute window that it took place......I had to leave the house to pick up my son from band camp! I totally missed it!!! Not only that run to 1.4675 but the following 100 pips as well. I was so demoralized when I got home to see that I'd missed the pop, that I shut the computer off for the rest of the evening and didn't go back to it. So I'm just now back on after taking him TO band camp. Seems like the runs more often than not happen during the hours when I'm taking kids to school or picking them up or doing the honey-doooos......and if it isn't scheduling issues the rallies take place while I'm asleep at 3am! And I thought it would be easier once I "retired", and was supposedly free to trade. Not to whine or anything but !@)(*$#!!!
Ok, so moving on......at least I did see the setup and the only thing that kept me from taking the trade just 5 minutes before it rallied was having to get my son and not just doing it anyway while setting a stop loss for safety sake. I guess I'm just afraid that a gap could lock me into losses or that it won't trip. Any thoughts there? I really need a tight stop of only a couple few pips below the previous 5 minute candle low on a trade like that.
pennies......"there it is" for me was "there it was"! During the twenty minute window that it took place......I had to leave the house to pick up my son from band camp! I totally missed it!!! Not only that run to 1.4675 but the following 100 pips as well. I was so demoralized when I got home to see that I'd missed the pop, that I shut the computer off for the rest of the evening and didn't go back to it. So I'm just now back on after taking him TO band camp. Seems like the runs more often than not happen during the hours when I'm taking kids to school or picking them up or doing the honey-doooos......and if it isn't scheduling issues the rallies take place while I'm asleep at 3am! And I thought it would be easier once I "retired", and was supposedly free to trade. Not to whine or anything but !@)(*$#!!!
Ok, so moving on......at least I did see the setup and the only thing that kept me from taking the trade just 5 minutes before it rallied was having to get my son and not just doing it anyway while setting a stop loss for safety sake. I guess I'm just afraid that a gap could lock me into losses or that it won't trip. Any thoughts there? I really need a tight stop of only a couple few pips below the previous 5 minute candle low on a trade like that.
pennies......last post I can make today so here it is.....
Firstly, your first chart on continuation was hugely enlightening! I need to spend more time with it but it's what I was asking for.
Second, it seems to me looking at your zone chart that if a candle doesn't close well into the new zone then there isn't necessarily a new zone to trade from yet even though a candle may have moved outside its current zone. Is that right? And aren't we going to find defined zones on each different chart time frame like 1 minute versus 15 minute?
Thirdly, I can't reply anymore today but hope you'll check in and update the E/A trade as it unfolds here this afternoon when you return and have the time.
Okay, that's all that comes to mind right now but I'm sure I'll be wishing I had more posts available as soon as I click send. Thanks pennies!
Simple! I only have one more post with my free status after this but I had to apologize for the error and say hello! Btw, I knew the 377 replaced the 441 and need to change mine but I mistyped. My brain said one thing and my fingers said another. lol Good to see you posting even if it's only to correct me! LOL
Can you post a chart illustrating how you are using the TDI setups for continuation? Down to 2 posts after this one.
That last candle prompted me out with small profits. I'll wait and watch and hopefully get in again before it does move up to your TP mark. If price breaks that price action trendline I'll probably jump in again and will definitely look to reenter at the 240. I hope I didn't screw up by exiting too soon....
Only 4 remaining posts so I have to be conservative now with the frequency.
I'll be looking for that TDI trendline break and retest as the best reentry at this point. Thanks for the mention.
Yep....I've got it on my radar. So far, price is respecting SGs 441 even though he's modified it to 337 I think he said.
I'm up now a few pips at half-o-buck a pip but I could sure use that 1.467 to counter my EA losses.
Oh, right......I've got SGs 441 MA on my chart and the 62ema but not the 240. I'll be adding it now though.
If the TDI trendline is broken topside, what's your next plan of attack? I'll go with the TRIX/BB bearish crossover on the 5 minute chart unless you have a better plan.
Ok, I'll be doing the same! Tx! eom
Everything you say makes good sense. I'm long again with the TRIX/BB crossover here. I'll keep another tight stop though. I'd sure like to see that sharp and quick move up happen here.....
Ok, well the 88fib was playing in my head as the expected outcome and granted the price action didn't actually quite touch until your C wave, but it was so close to touching that I would have been thinking it had hit it on my own.
Oh man.......I'm just not convicted enough to go long again here.....
Thank you for clarifying though. So you see strong resistance at the lower horizontal trendline then?
I closed out at the break of the trendline with minimal loss. I'm still curious what your stop is/was....
Is the pattern still good btw?
Pennies.......what's your stop your EA continuation position here?
pennies.......I cut and run on my EA position though it was a few percent loss to my account. I'm just not seeing where it's ready to reverse bearishly so I'm out to play the TDI setups.
So considering your "EU Hourly Chart".....something that's always been a hurdle and tripping stone to me when looking at your a,b,c,d,e patterns, is the fact that I can obviously see where price action has hit your top trendline in between your wave B and wave C which would cause me to interpret your wave C as wave E. And after price touched the top trendline it quickly touched your bottom trendline wherein I would have seen a wave D. So how are you able to distinguish a wave C where you did vice the previous top trendline hits? There were actually 3 price spikes before your wave C where I might have put my wave C annotation at. Not only that but there's two more price spikes to that top trendline immediately after your C annotation which would cause me to think that your C annotation should be the highest of those price spikes.
And one more thing.......if you believe your wave D to be wave D, then why not take a long when posting your chart to gain from the 100 odd pip move up to the top trendline again or at least the 88fib level at 1.33385 that you've marked on the chart? Your stop loss could have been the bottom trendline itself or the previous low of 1.32321 which would have prevented any large losses.
Thanks pennies.....I figured if it wasn't the topmost line then it was the one labeled 1st potential target.
charger..........alright, I'm finally on the same page with you. Unfortunately I can't help but assume that if it was worth their bother, stockcharts.com would have already made 24 hour forex charting available but it isn't so it will never happen. Have you read rumors or other where they stated an intent to make forex charting available 24/7? If the brokers don't need it then who else would pay them enough to make it worth their time. I hope I'm wrong.
For now, I'm going to search for the CCI, stochRSI and others you use in MT4 coding that have the "previous indicator data" setting.
Ok charger.......while attempting to duplicate some of your indi overlays on your EATS chart, I found that most indicators didn't allow for "previous indicators data" option in the "apply to" window if that window was even available on the indi. So, I wasn't able to produce your overlays on my MT4 chart. Figures.
I can't afford to subscribe to stockcharts.com and frankly they charge too much. Once I fund my stock trading account then I'll probably be forced to resubscribe but I'll resent it just as I resent the Clearstation platform being dropped by Etrade or at least that is who I think funded and supported it. Whatever.
I'd sure like to find some technicals to confirm the reversals that your TRIX (4,3)/BB overlay indicate. That's my main focus at this time. That and finding some expertise at interpreting the TDI indicator.
pennies......had to take my son to band camp or I would've replied sooner.
I am unable to put any kind of a firm wave count to either the daily or weekly chart myself and I was hoping you could where I was at a loss to. However the patterns are probably more important anyway, so your chart here helps.
Now I can see what looks to be an inverted H&S pattern forming but I'm not sure which trendline you are referring to when you mention "first trend line" for the neckline. You don't mean the topmost line do you? Or maybe you do since that's a major point of resistance that price must break above before the pattern can evolve further as I see it.
Ok, I gotcha! I was complicating thing in my head. lol
Not sure what you mean by "the TDI to begin curling up" so I'll have to see it after it occurs on the chart. You may have to annotate a "point out" to me though. lol
I'm still very interested in what you'd have to say about the daily and weekly patterns on the USD/DKK chart. I understand though if you have to get your work day started and don't have time. But at some point over the next couple days I'd love to see a wave count from you on those two time frames.
Oh so you're fine tuning the TDI setup by using a secondary trendline off the latest couple of TDI fast line waves. And I wasn't even considering a 4 hour reversal candle so that applies with TDI setups on all time frames and pairs. Would you then be looking for another TDI setup on the 15 minute chart to coincide with the next hit of the TDI trendline on the 4 hour chart? Appreciate the enlightening here!
Look forward to the 4 hour chart pennies! That TDI on the 4 hour has me a little confused.
Btw pennies......based on the move up overnight on USD/DKK, are you still expecting that 5.59 bottom? I ask also because I see now where the 4 hour chart shows that same TDI trendline bounce setup in play now.
pennies.........my 15 minute chart shows one of your TDI reversal setups playing out textbook perfect on USD/DKK overnight. Would have been 166 pips so far of possible gains from the TDI trendline I have to the 441 MA on SGs tunnel. Maybe I can trust my TDI afterall.
charger........ back from the weekend camp trip. I've just caught up on board posts and I see that pennies has answered your "what if" question or at least part of it. So now we know that you can at least use Stockcharts.com for forex. So what is stockcharts.com giving you in the way of indis and overlays that MT4 doesn't really? My eyes must be tired from the drive 'cause I'm struggling to make glean anything from your EATS chart tonight, so I'll revisit it tomorrow.
pennies.......headed out camping with the family here in the next few hours for the weekend so I won't be around again until Sunday but wanted to mention that the inverse pattern relationship with E/U to USD/DKK is definite and remarkable. Thanks for pointing it out to the rest of us! We'll see if your ABCDE pattern is correct next week but I'm curious as to what kind of a wave count you would put to the 4 hour and daily charts on USD/DKK to correlate to your 1 hour wave count. I think the daily shows a long expanding wedge but I don't know for sure. Looks to me like U/DKK is between the 76.2 and 88 fib levels on the prior daily wave up from mid june to mid july. Would you expect a bounce at the 88 level based on your 1 hour wave count? I have the 88 fib priced at about 5.590 btw and my ADR shows 5.595 for the ADR low on my daily chart. Maybe a good area for long position and a bounce on the daily?
And if you look at the weekly chart you can easily see a ascending bearish channel but I can't post a chart with the wave count or predicted price projection so maybe you can. Appreciate all that you share here. In case you haven't read my last post to charger, I'll suggest you put a TRIX (4,3)/BB overlay on your chart below your TDI to watch for divergence on the overlay that the TDI won't always present. Looking back historically on the U/DKK chart you can see many times where the TRIX overlay shows divergence that the TDI does not.
Enjoy your weekend!
Charger......I have been studying the TRIX (4,3) and BB overlay since you brought it to my attention yesterday and one thing I am seeing about it that I really like is that the (4,3) lines will show divergence against price action where the TDI indicator won't at times and that's especially important with long price action rallies at end of final wave tops or bottoms. I see where there are times that neither the TDI nor the TRIX/BB overlay will show divergence before a reversal in price action but more often than not, the TRIX/BB will show the divergence when the TDI doesn't. That's a huge revelation for me! It's definite and dramatic too.
I should also mention that at times in a bearish wave down on price action , the (4,3) lines will reverse and come back down through the upper bollie while the price action will begin to reverse at the middle bollie line on the main chart which strongly indicates trend continuation of price action. Same would hold true for the (4,3) lines reversing back up through the lower bollie on a bullish trend up where price is trading at mid bollie on the main chart.
I'll share more as I discover more.
Charger.....I haven't offered much to this board in the past so I can see why you would only follow me based soley on my having communicated with crable for a short period of time on his board, but I hold fond feelings towards him as a good hearted soul who's also a talented chartist. I only quit corresponding with him because of my diverted interest into forex and my lack of funds to adequately trade stocks at the time which unfortunately continues to be the case. I was frustrated with my slow gains in trading the penny stocks at the time as I am now with forex, and I moved to this board hoping that forex would be the get rich quick rich game that I'd read others speak of. Anyway, it's good that you mentioned him because I'll definitely seek cradle and his board out once I am able to fund my stock trading account again. That probably won't happen until after the new year but hopefully it will happen, barring any sudden and undesired or ridiculous expenses and hit's to my credit card! Credit is evil! lol
Good deal.....I'm seeing a bit of a setup on my TDI and I see price is down near the ADR low now but anything can happen and I'm not really seeing divergence or anything else yet to indicate high odds reversal here. We'll see how it plays out.
pennies........were you getting a buy signal from the TDI at all for your USD/DKK long trade? And what's your stop set at?