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Article in this mornings NY Times addresses the political aspects facing
President Obama regarding the Keystone XL Pipeline.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/10/us/keystone-pipeline-nebraska-supreme-court-transcanada.html?hpw&rref=us&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region®ion=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well
SHL468,
Great article!!!! If the Dow hadn't lost over 300 points today I'm sure we would have had an UP day. As it was we gained 1/10 of a penny on over a quarter of a million shares traded.
Not bad given the circumstances. I am so excited about what is about to happen.
The tax loss sellers are not selling this week. IF they do, they won't be able to buy the stock back until Jan. 29 or after waiting 30 days from the day they sold. There is a pretty good chance that we may get a significant announcement before the end of Jan. so those smarty-pants people may not be able to buy back in until after the stock has appreciated significantly. All that risk to save a couple thousand on your taxes falls into the "not so smart" category.
The smart tax sellers sold on Nov. 28 betting that we probably wouldn't get any news for the rest of 2014. Selling on Nov. 28 which many of them did i.e. volume on that day was 331,000 and the spread was huge at .46L and .57H. Those folks can now buy back in on the first trading day of 2015 in front of the announcements thereby making that move look very smart.
For the rest of us we can expect a decent volume on the buy side on the first trading day of 2015.
Hello ZERO321,
Do you think you might be able to swing by the XL site in Udall before the end of the year to see if the status of the AOT there has changed?
That would be awesome and greatly appreciated.
Happy Holidays
Article today in the LA Times
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-keystone-20141216-story.html
The main argument being presented is "Is the Keystone pipeline still economically feasible with the current oil glut and depressed prices.
The article is very pro-pipeline and has some very interesting quotes from TransCanada's management.
A good read...check it out.
IF you took the time to look up Joule Heating on the Wikipedia you would see that Joule Heating is very simply the heating takes place when you run a current through a conductive material. The amount of heat is proportional to the amount of current and the resistance of the conductor.
Its why and space heater heats and an incandescent light bulb gets hot. Not real rocket science basically. So if you are putting an alternating current through a grid to create an electric field you are also going to be generating heat. The AOT is probably a grid engineered to generate a maximum electric field. A joule heating element may use different metals in a different geometrical array to generate maximum heat in the confines of working oil pipeline. Each application probably requires different engineering.
I have got to believe that the NDA is only in effect as long as a potential deal is pending. Once both parties agree that no purchase is or will be forthcoming I would think that the restrictions of the NDA would be over.
STWA has a right to that data and would have never negotiated an NDA that would preclude them from access to that data at some point. Originally the NDA also protected STWA in the event that the performance of the AOT was not successful.
The key to this whole poker game right now is that the data from the on-line testing of the AOT on the Keystone pipeline is good and compelling enough to validate the technology and the company. Gregg now has a very strong poker hand to leverage in his favor. He is no longer afraid of THE DATA. That's why he is challenging TC's hand right now.
KM is ROTFLTAO watching their major competitor about on the edge of making the worse decision in their company's history if they don't buy the AOT.
The fact that a unit has shipped to the KM site in TX has added a huge amount of coal to the fire currently burning TC's ass off to sh*t or get off the pot.
I once had a very difficult customer. He was a chinese fellow who was relentless in his efforts to get a super low price on anything we sold him. All the salesmen in my office referred to him as "Ming the merciless".
Over time however, we learned that this particular poker player had a very definite "tell" that let us know when he was serious about making a purchase. When he needed another system, his level of complaining about the systems he already had would go way, way up. Your systems don't work like they used to, your competition has you beat technically, your service is no good....etc.etc. His strategy was to keep us so off balance that we would be afraid to enforce our normal pricing strategies so we wouldn't loose his business or his company as a major account. Does this sound familiar?
I think we are at a stand-off with TC and its all over price. They are doing their "Ming thing" by saying that the eval went well but your power supply needs to be tweaked for better performance and results.
No order will be placed until then.
I think Gregg has reached the end of his rope. In the shareholders letter, he is basically saying to TC, hey, you guys are a wonderful company and we thank you for all of your help, we love you to death blah, blah, blah, but we are ready to move on at this point if you don't agree to purchase. He has emphasized this point by naming them in the letter. This is a bit of a threat by saying we are not affraid to name you in this letter and if there is no deal we will remove the unit from Kansas and ship it elsewhere. It also kind of says we will no longer be bound to the NDA since there is no deal pending.
Basically its saying, thanks for playing along but now we need a PO or its goodnight and goodbye.
If the AOT gets moved from KS its because Gregg has decided to move it not TC.
These negotiations just got ratcheted up in their intensity and it looks like we are near a conclusion of one kind or another.
If a system has been shipped to KM in Tx can someone provide the Gps coordinates so we can google earth the site and have a look?
My bad. I thought he was a Senator.
I agree with the other posts by our faithful longs. TC needed to know where it stood with regard to the Keystone XL at least in the short term. They obviously couldn't commit a hundred million or so to implementing the AOT if they thought they might need to throw that money at the XL before the US changed its mind again.
Now they can commit. The Senate was one vote away from passing the bill. IF TC can go public with its committment to save the environment by the use of the AOT and if junior Senator Ryan Zinke can spread the word on the floor of the Senate, and if in Jan. when the republicans get control of the senate this legislation will pass.
Govts. work by compromise. Obama can then save face by telling the environmentalists that the Keystone XL pipeline is now a environmentally
acceptable solution to transporting oil due to the addition of some new technology developed in the US at an American University. He couldn't vote for it before but now he can tell the world that due to his insight and dilligence America will now get a much safer solution with a smaller carbon footprint, creating more jobs, strenghthening our relationship with our closest ally and making America strong and less reliant on Middle Eastern or Russian energy.
These last two issues will grow in importance as we watch Putin continue to misbehave and we watch ISIS behead a few thousand more innocent people.
Tedco,
I don't think its against the law to ask a question. It might be problematic if you got an answer with corporate sensitive information and then ran out and bought a million shares of stock. At that point you might
think about retaining counsel.
If I lived in Casper WY I would go and talk to the CEO of Power Services.
You make it sound like we live in China where having lunch with a corporate
exec could lead to an arrest and the firing squad for corruption.
Just meet with the guy and ask how he's doing and if he's even heard of STWA and yada yada yada. You would probably learn more by what he doesn't say.
On another tack, if all of that piping laying around the yard was purchased over the past year or so one might want to check the last few 10q's filed by Power Services. I don't think PS has the legs to go out and purchase all of this metal on their own dime. Some kind of deposit or pre-payment must have been made by somebody in lieu of future purchase orders. I'm sure there must be an income spike sometime over the past year or so to accommodate this large acquisition of material.
Keystone Pipeline has been approved by the House of Representatives.
Could go for a vote in the Senate as early as next week. As we know, The Republicans now control the Senate so you expect it to pass there too.
Obama will have to approve it as this is the first piece of major legislature to hit his desk since the elections and if he vetoes then he will expose himself to be the main reason why Washington has been a quagmire of partisan politics over the past 6 plus years and that would not bode well for the legacy he may wish to leave on his Presidency.
Once Keystone passes the order from TC will soon follow.
Nobody said anything about an NDA between Power Services and TC or STWA.
So our friend goes over and starts a communication. There is no harm in doing that.
If Power Services is restricted by an NDA I'm sure they will make that known and not divulge any sensitive information.
josnyder101,
Why not go over to Power Services and take the head guy out for lunch?
Tell him you are an investor in STWA and see if he opens up and begins to tell you all about way back when they built the prototype system that was first tested down the road at the Rocky Mountain Oil Testing Center, etc. etc.
See if he has even heard of STWA etc. etc. Ask him if he is a shareholder.
Ask him what all those big sections of pipe are doing lying around their property.
Become this guys new best friend.
You could have an awesome conversation if you ask the right questions.
Footer,
Those pix of the Power Services site in Casper, Wy are awesome. Some may remember that Casper is also the location of the DOE's RMOTC site. Coincidence? Probably not.
Does anyone know if Power Services was the company that built the AOT that is currently on the Keystone?
There certainly appears to be quite a large quantity of pipeline inventory spread around their property ready to be used for something.
Coincidence? I don't think so.
all in all its just another brick in the wall....
All of these developments are leading to only one thing. STWA is for real.
Footer,
Thanks so much for the pictures that you posted regarding the pieces of pipeline that look like could be the parts used to build more and multiple AOTS.
The have Google maps coordinates in my lap top for the Udall, KS site but you are right that photo hasn't been updated since April. It was pretty cool seeing it for the first time however.
We can in all likelihood assume that Senator Zinke's new position precludes him from being on on BOD. Maybe some conflict of interest issues there.
Good to have a solid STWA aficionado in the US Senate. Maybe he can bring some of our environmental benefits to the Keystone pipeline to light on the floor of the US Senate before its next vote to approve. Exciting stuff and great visibility.
In spite of all the bad publicity proffered by our negative "guardian angels" on this board some of the biggest companies in the oil business are running to STWA not away from STWA.
TransCanada, Newfield Exploration and Kinder-Morgan are some of the biggest names in the business and they are lining up at the water trough called STWA. These are facts my friends. TC never said they were going to send the system back. That was just some standard boilerplate verbiage that was part of the contract written back in 2013.
The Aot is still on the Keystone Pipeline which is an irrefutable fact.
Maybe our cyber-sleuths should help us out here. There has been sizable volume of the shares traded over the past few days as the price has dropped. Somebody is buying this stock and they are getting it for a song.
My feeling is that the bashers work for pipeline insiders that know the stock is going to rocket and have been paid to do whatever is necessary to get the price down.
SOMEBODY IS BUYING THIS STOCK IN LARGE AMOUNTS FOR CHEAP!!!!!!
Footer,
Can you please send the link to the photo that shows the piping outside of
a building presumably waiting to be fabricated into multiple AOTS?
Would love to see the pix.
10Q
We have seen in the past that when the stock price takes a hit, STWA produces some kind of press release to right the ship. (remember the Seeking Alpha debacle). If its not today it will be before the end of the week.
If I was a cynical person I would say that all the bad hype from the 10Q report was merely to set the table for an announcement. The jackals shake the tree and can now pick up shares at an awesome premium in anticipation of the big upward move.
Icantstop, you are right on the money. Everybody is getting all upset over nothing.
The one simple truth is:THE AOT IS STILL ON THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE.
The only piece of information that is relatively current is the report by outside testing firm that published that the results could be improved by an "unconstrained" power supply. That's it.
The BS about instructions on how to ship it back and Gregg not knowing what to do with the system once its returned is just that. Those return instructions were part of the T's and C's of the original lease agreement and probably resent to TC when they cancelled the lease July 15.
July 15th was a long time ago and still the AOT is on the pipeline WHY!!!
TC can't figure out whether to use Fed EX or UPS??? IS that the delay?
Why wasn't it sent back on July 16th the day after the termination was announced?
Gregg statement about what to do with the AOT once its returned was a strategy move. You don't tell your current girlfriend who you are going to sleep tomorrow night when you're trying to close the deal with her tonight. I'd wager Enbridge, or Kinder Midstream or one of the companies in Europe or Africa can't wait to be the next to evaluate the AOT. They can't because ITS STILL ON THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE.
All these statements about "Its over" are nonsense. IF it was over why would Gregg uplist the stock to an exchange that is going to give the company much much more visibility? Oh, so more people can find out that the Keystone evaluation failed. Seriously?
If Keystone was a failure the AOT would have been returned TWO MONTHS AGO. It wasn't so ask yourselves why.
The only piece of information that is new is regarding the power supply issues. All the rest of the crap you are slinging has been known for months. If you focus on the wording in the outside testing company's report it reads quite positively really. That information may be fairly recent for all we know. I think TC ain't shipping anything back until they see the performance after a new power supply is installed. They know that if they ship it back prematurely they will lose all of the pricing and prestige advantages of being the first customer. It might also jeopardize their chances of getting the Keystone legislation through Congress which is looking better since the elections.
I think this 10q was Gregg's way of suggesting to TC that they fish or cut bait because KInder and Enbridge and all these other outfits are looking for a chance to get their hands on an AOT. UNfortunately, they can't and you know why?
ITS STILL WORKING ON THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE. Wake up people.
The Report also determined that the
efficacy of the AOT Technology was constrained due to the limitations of the electric field applied by the power supply installed on our
equipment, concluding that maximum viscosity reductions could be achieved by modifying the installed power supply.
The conclusion of the report states that the maximum viscosity reduction could be achieved by modifying the installed power supply. This reads to me that a marked improvement would be seen when the proper one is installed
The wording also sounds like the power supply was either on-site before hand or was one supplied by TC. Whichever one it is/was, it doesn't sound like it was shipped by STWA with the AOT and wasn't right to begin with.
Power supplies are transformers and transformers tend to be very big and extremely heavy. The one needed to drive 4-AOTS may need to be custom made which may take awhile.
A new one was probably spec.'d and ordered by TC and STWA back around the time TC cancelled the order. TC agreed the AOT could stay on-site until the new Power supply arrived and was installed. I think we are still waiting for that to happen.
So the key to watch is this: When the trucks arrive in Udall are they making a delivery (new power supply) or making a pick-up (aot going off site).
I think there is just a massive over-reaction to the 10q based on heightened expectations that an order was forthcoming.
This may explain why the lease was terminated when it was back in July. The system worked but maybe not as well as they knew it could work. Maybe when they arrived at the site they saw that the power arrangements weren't ideal but they decided to put it on anyway. Needless to say, I don't think you can make a statement in a government document that the system "works" if it doesn't work. To what degree it works is now the question. Maybe STWA had to go back to its suppliers and order a new, custom built, power supply and its taken some time to get this thing to be made. TC agreed to keep the AOT on the pipeline running probably because its working well enough to save TC more than the $20,000/month its costing them every month on the lease.
But its my guess that TC and STWA both decided it could do better and now they are just waiting for the new power unit to see if if makes an improvement that may well determine maybe not so much whether its a keeper or not but rather how much they are going to pay.
My guess is that TC said back in July, "we see that the system works but we aren't going to pay X millions of dollars for it". STWA came back and said, Will you pay X millions if we put a better power supply on and increase the performance by y percent.
These are the kind of negotiations that are probably going on and may take a few months to sort out.
So the reason we have not seen any activity on the pipeline station in KS is because we are waiting for a new power supply for the grid array. If trucks show up at the site and are carrying something we can assume its a fix for the system. If they show up empty, then they are there to dismantle the unit and either take it back to STWA or move it to a different location on the TC pipeline. 321 will need to help us by keeping a watchful eye on the site.
Isn't this the same news that we received last Friday? Why is there a
second announcement? Did I miss something??
Three PR's in the last week after going a month or so of hearing nothing.
I took that as a good thing and picked up another 15K of stock @.59.
I am now officially tapped out so let's get this party started.
Fantastic news about the up-listing. Thanks to all at STWA central for making it happen.
Question: Will some of the better/larger mutual funds now be able to consider ZERO as a legitimate investment opportunity?
Can we expect larger daily trading volumes?
My guess is that TC and STWA cannot come to an agreement on price.
This contract should be done by now, so whats the holdup.
What would JR Ewing do in a case like this? He would say, We (TC) are a big company and we can afford to wait this thing out. STWA needs revenue and will come around to our way of thinking eventually. We'll just starve them out.
Let's get on with the Kinder test. Start that eval ASAP and let TC stew on the idea of loosing the preferred status of being the first customer.
This Haven announcement is just Gregg throwing out a bone to divert everyone's attention away from the TC situation that has hit the wall.
This is what I like.
1. An AOT device times four on every 50 miles of pipeline on the planet (otp).
2. A modified AOT device on every well head in every oil field otp.
3. An AOT device on any pipeline moving oil anywhere otp.
4. An Aot device on every oil supertanker otp. (increase off loading speed)
5. An aot device at every port of call that transfers oil from oceanic transport to land-based transport.
6. A Magnetek device on every internal combustion engine OTP. (already successfully tested on Mercedes Benz truck engines in Europe). Magnetek provides a more efficient combustion leading to less fuel consumption and fewer hydrocarbons in the exhaust. Already successfully tested on US Naval ships operating with conventional diesel engines (i.e. non-nuclear).
7. A Magnetek device on every jet engine otp (see above).
The list goes on my friends. Those of us in our later years may not live long enough to see all the applications of the products made by STWA but this technology will become so ubiquitous in its utility that it will become almost transparent to its users.
So maybe when we up-list we won't have another ridiculous trading day like we enjoyed today. Over 100K shares traded and at the end of the day we see an appreciation in price of 3 one hundredth's of a penny. Are you freaking kidding me? What trader would even bother. I can't sell my stock today because the bid price missed my limit price by 3 one hundredth's of a penny.
Seriously??
Anyway, just a comment or two on one poster's concern over the lack of activity at the pipeline site. Yes the video showed no moving parts, no people crawling over the unit hammering or sawing or tightening bolts. In fact it appeared like nothing was happening at all except for one thing.
There was a humming noise coming from the AOT and that my friend was the sound of money.
The beauty of this thing is that it can and does work without any human interaction. Sure maybe the grids need to be cleaned every six months or so but other than that it just sits alone and quietly does its thing.
A thing of wonder.
TC doesn't need any cold weather data as that was acquired by the Department of Energy at the RMOTC site last winter or was it two winters ago.
I think the science stuff is over. Now its a negotiation of dollars and cents. It would be great to see a huge appreciation in stock price but it would be even better to get a sizable dividend check every quarter from now until the end of time. Good luck Greg and give them hell to you get what we want.
The time it takes to get approval to up-list will probably fairly closely
match the time it takes us to get that first order.
Coincidence?, hardly. Its called planning.
Why would STWA management even bother if they didn't know that the order
was in process.
This seems like a pretty big hint to me.
This waiting is the pits. Unfortunately we must remember that by definition with any disruptive technology there are no road maps or precedents on how this product should be sold or leased or whatever. This becomes more complicated by the fact that we are talking about potentially hundreds of millions of dollars on the proverbial table.
Here's my guess FWIW. TC and STWA have reached an impasse because TC realizes the best deal for them would be to buy-out the company. That way,
they can shut out their competition or better yet sell it to them at a higher profit margin. They would also avoid the issue of having to pay STWA continuing revenues on the savings incurred on each barrel pumped using the AOT. This could also be millions of dollars of lost profits (in their eyes) that they would lose each year from now until whenever.
Gregg on the other hand, will refuse to be bought out for exactly these same reasons. IF he sells the company to TC they lose all additional sales to Kinder, Enbridge, Europe, Africa and the rest of the world. Selling the company outright may mean a huge payout immediately but then that would be it. Gone would be the all the future residual payments that would make STWA an unbelievable legacy investment.
This whole idea of continuing payments on a percentage of savings enjoyed by TC (or any pipeline company) is truly where the focus of these negotiations needs to be. It also must be difficult to calculate.
Will it change when the grade or kind of oil is switched? What is a fair percentage to pay STWA on each dollar saved by using the AOT going forward. Take your time Gregg because you may only get one chance to get it right.
I'm betting TC has hired an army of MBA's to run all the numbers on all the different scenarios i.e. buy lease or whatever and I bet they don't like any of them except for the concept of buying it all outright.
Hence, the stand-off at the AOT corral.
We won't see anything tomorrow. I'm saying this because my predictions so far have all been wrong.
You're welcome.
Alkaline,
I am not a basher so please do not take this the wrong way. We have evidence that the system works however, we have no indication that it works well enough to cover the profit and loss considerations of adoption onto an existing pipeline. The AOT is not a product until somebody buys one and that still worries me.
I think Oct. could be a very big deal. If nothing else happens except for the system being turned OFF then we need to worry as it could indicate that TC is backing out. It could also mean that more time is needed to finalize
the deal.
If the system is left ON then I think we can assume some kind of lease extension or purchase order has been negotiated.
Reflecting on my last message I have another question. If the system is left ON after the 15th does that mean we have a deal?
Just some thoughts and concerns regarding Oct. 15th. What's going to happen on that day specifically? For many of us this will be the climax to a movie we have been watching for over ten years. The suspense is beginning to surpass anything Hitchcock could have ever dreamed up.
Something has got to happen. At the very least, because the lease has officially expired, the system will need to be turned off. I would think liability issues would preclude it from being used after the term is up.
Maybe a work crew will show up on-site to begin the dismantling process. Maybe our spy in Udall can update us as to any changes regarding that.
I don't think TC or STWA is under any legal obligation to announce the issuance of a purchase order. Maybe a form 8 needs to accompany an extension to the lease but I am no expert on governmental requirements.
So my guess is that Oct. cannot come and go without either the system being turned off or some kind of announcement being made.
Warren Buffet ain't buying anything that has anything to do with pipelines as long as he has a huge investment in ATSF railroads. In fact, Buffet is the enemy as he is also putting millions of dollars in to stop the Keystone pipeline approval.
Please don't mention his name on this board again. He is the anti-christ.
Moorea,
Thanks for your awesome breakdown of stock price vs. earnings vs. P/E ratio etc. It's been my experience that future earnings and projections get factored into a stock price fairly early on as the news gets out and causes a feeding frenzy. I don't know if you remember a company called Celera and the sensation it caused back in 2001 when everyone thought that it would be the sole owners of the human genome. I don't think the STWA story is quite as compelling but still is a pretty good story.
So, from your calcs I'm thinking its reasonable to see the stock price go to $13.00/share with the one PO from TC before the end of the year. If at that point, the stock can get up-listed to a credible market (NASDAQ) then the analysts at the big mutual funds will start running the numbers on the what if's and we will see the stock take off in 2015.
Alkaline,
I worked for a company that manufactured Capital equipment and it was pretty much the rule of thumb that if your EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) was around 15% you were doing pretty well. 15% of $200 million is $30 million and that's where that number comes from.