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But who is to say the European partner is BP. If the company said it was going to hire a massive sales force and truly GIA that would be different, but doesn’t look like that’s the direction. The US market doesn’t need BP to succeed, the rest likely does.
Ah my mistake then. I thought it was posted as a 18 call and 21 put strike price. The 18rh was the date which I see
Jan 21 isn’t the strike it’s the expiration date. Again have to be for same strike and expiration date
To be a straddle both need to be at the same strike, these aren’t. This is a strangle
To follow that up. A straddle would be used when you saw volatility coming but didn’t know which direction
That’s not a straddle. A straddle would be buying the put and call at the same strike.
Which market maker? Doesn’t sound like a straight trade.
Hi JL,
Unlike yourself I don’t have direct medical background. I do however work for a large MSO for the last 15 years, which has over 1000 physicians. I am a finance guy, so i have dealt with many of the doctors in a personal level for years. Maybe it is just these set of doctors but they do seem pretty up on the latest happenings and the overall group provides a lot of information. Where I’ve found doctors tremendously lack is business acumen, which is why this group was very smart to partner for that expertise many years ago.
For the cardiology side, for personal necessity sake I know or have dealt with almost the entire department of Brigham and Women’s and Mass General and have always been impressive on their knowledge base. Maybe overall these 2 areas are still too small to make a generalization, but then I feel lucky who I am dealing and working with even more.
People I think are getting far too caught up in the personality of Bhatt and Thero. With all due respect it’s the doctors and the FDA that need to be impressed with the data and presentation. Doctors can see bullshit from a mile away where many investors can not regarding the study and results. If the price had not dropped here no one would be questioning either person, but price has not dropped due to either one, it dropped due to some shaky press, coordinated selling and some panic setting in. All these items will come to an end. The worst thing Amarin could do is roll out people who feel like sleazy salespeople trying to push Vascepa at every turn. The drug works, the medical community hasn’t been fooled by the articles and Thero and Bhatt are still the right people to push forward. Thero doesn’t overpromise or overhype and the company is better off for it.
My concern from an investor standpoint is the FDA, plain and simple. With them as I have seen in other biotechs, you just never know until the approval comes. Most of what I have read puts Vascepa in a good position to get the expanded label, but I am not a medical guy, so I hope I am not missing something.
From a trading point, too many people are playing the options and getting burned. The returns are great when you hit, but the real
manipulation always starts in the options.
What needs to happen is time. Time for the scripts to start rising and Amarin to push the word out to patients. As well obtaining the expanded label from the FDA would give you a very sizable lift in stock price. Of course then there is a europe deal. There are plenty of catalysts to come but it is going to take a little time. If anything more concerned about the expanded label than anything happening right now with the stock price.
The investing public is not the key, the doctors prescribing it and patients who want to take it are. Script numbers are the key to PPS rise, not the investing public. The investing public will trip over themselves buying of scripts rise drastically, and half of them still will be clueless to what they are buying.
Somehow Vascepa became nothing more than a dietary supplement. Good news is that it’s the same very limited doctors quoting this garbage. These articles can’t expand their attacks because they can’t find other doctors to do their bidding
He has to be careful not to let his emotions get away from him, as it’s not just the company that can sue him.
I love the announcement of another article coming soon. Now why would one do something like that? Hmmm
Jesse, I agree very much which is why I continue to accumulate a good sized position because the market and media long term mean nothing. The longer term future of the stock price will be determined by doctors believing that Vascepa will help their patients and prescribing it and the FDA granting the expanded label. Despite all the noise, the doctors appear to be on board and that’s the most important factor by a Mike that can be lost in the short term market. If it takes another 6-12 months to fulfill potential that is ok.
Oh boy, yes Sarepta was a shit show unlike almost any other. Each day the stock would swing violently between $10 and $25, based on false claims or hopes. It became a political football if you would. The only way I could play that was to utilize straddles, the underlying stock was pretty much toxic.
You are correct that the only way the SEC can do something now is to massively add staff. Social media has helped massively assist the scammers and that beast can’t be put down so they don’t even really try.
You forgot the very end where those tactics are starting to lose their effectiveness so they have someone who owns a tiny amount of shares (by design) “contact” the NY trash lawyers, who in turn immediately announce they will be doing an investigation on behalf of “investors” into management practices.
To believe shorts don’t twist and manipulate the truth would be to believe in unicorns. Happens all the time. Now to be fair, longs will do the same. Seeking Alpha gave a platform to anyone who wants to try to manipulate a stock. SEC used to care if you say went short then wrote an article bashing the company with half truths and theories. Sadly they don’t bother anymore even trying into most cases.
There are a few reasons I don’t see a retest or even getting below $17. The first being that option open interest is not anywhere near as high as it was last week. Second, the fear seen this last week isn’t easy to recreate without real news as people will buy the dips again as they did on Friday, as people are more comfortable there are not any real lasting issues with the data. Lastly, I think any large shareholder who would have been tempted to sell at these levels already did this past week. I think volume will get back to the 10-12 million daily level this week.
Lol word on what street? This is total bs
Next week will very likely not work the same way. There were a lot of weak hands in Amarin heading into the AHA which could be spooked. Dilution, mineral oil, lawsuit threats and other things conjured up this week have lost their effectiveness. This is why bear attacks aren’t performed back to back. There are many smart people here on the medical side, but not many have a good knowledge of the market workings which is what I think is leading to the elevated fear seen on this board of late.
Honestly the people who were thinking it would skyrocket immediately after the AHA just don’t understand how devious the market players are. There was a bit of sell the news for sure, but it went well beyond sell the news when the attack articles were released, dilution concerns raised, additional studies needed floated and the finale of course was a investigation threat which panicked a lot of novices.
The raid was well played and each stage featured another item which jarred the confidence of even some people who are dead set on the science being a hit. The stock price did exactly what I thought at first but dropped much more than I thought they could get it. Options suggested $17 not $14 or lower. It wasn’t till I say the fake investigation that I knew it was ending.
In the end though this is all noise, fundamentals always win out or games and manipulation, always, just can’t be impatient and worry the short term.
Nice to see a strong AH with price climbing over $18. Guess that fake investigation disappeared real fast. Always the bottom when these clowns appear.
And they couldn’t give a shit less. Just learn from this. Next time you see their name = buy. It’s not a coincidence that the market bottomed out right about the time they got involved. Seasoned market people know.
Lol it will rebound and all those who took advantage of this manipulation will be smiling. Of course those who have shares in the 3’s and 4’s already are, but the rest of us got the chance to get closer with this attack. When the law firm crap comes out it is almost always the bottom
Yeah but they don’t last for exactly the reason you said, because it draws too much attention. They execute and run, and that’s what I expect here.
Bought some March 15, $16 calls. Need to get beyond the manipulation and march of next year should be way beyond it. $375 a contract offering good value to me. At any point in a few hours these could be in the money.
Welcome to the world of trading. This for the moment is not a biotech, it’s a manipulated trading vehicle. The swings will be fast and violent. If you aren’t used to these games then perhaps shut the computer down and check back in a few days. It’s not for everyone.
Happy to lend help, damn sure can’t do it on the medical side. I feel like the line from 13 hours though: “you’re in my world now” lol
Well the option expiration is one overhang at this point, but there are many things at work now. Option expiration would suggest the price will be about $17 on Friday to kill off the highest open contracts interest. In the meanwhile though you are likely to get another law firm in NY to announce their own investigation, because they work in packs.
For longs though the bigger short term risk is momentum players, once they stop the shorts will soon follow. I would also expect a lot more funds to buy under $15. One day soon the stock will be back over $20 and it will be a violent price action reversal, always is.
Amarin’s drop started with the hit articles, spreading dilution concerns and yesterday bringing out the fake investigations. It has also attracted the momentum traders who don’t give 2 shits about whether anything is true, just see an opportunity to push the stock with big volume, which is what they do. These type of scenarios play out so much more than you may think, people generally just don’t follow a wide range of stocks to know this.
What I have seen though is the bottom usually comes very shortly after the NY “law firms” announce they are here to save the day. Value investors come in with big volume as they know the game being played, momentum traders leave sensing the stock isn’t moving much more and the shorts cover. When this happens, the stock reverses quickly. This is what will happen in Amarin.
You could have stopped with #1, but the other short.
The problem is stock manipulation is rampant and the SEC is incompetent, have been for a long time. Look no further than TLRY. You can manipulate floats, you can’t short a stock then put out hit articles against it, they simply look the other way. In the end those these guys are short timers and disappear into the wind.
Nah this isn’t margin calls today. It’s manipulation, using phony investigations and hit articles. Shorts can take over for a little time, but in the end the fundamentals win out and they move on to the next opportunity. Let the scripts grow and they will disappear into the floorboards again.
Unfortunately this isn’t even a lawsuit, but nobody reads the fine print, just go into panic mode.
These law firms honestly are as fake as they come when it comes to this. They almost never actually file anything and far less prove anything if they do. It’s a well timed scare tactic. These firms are well known to be used by shorts. Just check their history.
Only thing that would concern me is a sizable number of Cardiologists expressing that Vascepa has issues and they wouldn’t prescribe. We all know that hasn’t happened. In we get phony investigations, claims of issues with the study that has been addressed in the NEJM and hit squad type articles from some in the media with an agenda. I’ll listen to the cardiologists. The market can do funny things short term, but demand always always wins out long term and will here. More than happy to hold awaiting the shakeout of the games, which I’ve been in many times in this industry. The drug works from all accounts, that’s all I need to know.
They won’t move forward, rarely ever do. The press release is enough to scare people
No they aren’t actually going to go after anyone. They were hired by someone to put this release out, likely a short. This is their MO.
Ok this forces me into my trading funds as this stuff is desperation last straw stuff. Picked up 15k shares. You will blink and this stuff will be gone. Panic won’t last, and they have nothing but an empty press release.