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Raf,
It would be even better if you brought some useful information to the board for a change instead of polluting it with endless arguments.
Raf,
You are like a kid who keeps asking why why why.
Because HDG pulled information that I was not aware off so I adjusted my expectations. That's what investors usually do.
Now I'm more concerned with data unblinding than DB lock. And if we look at Anchor it took 18 days between data unblinding and top line results.
Now if we assume RI data unblinding took place immediately after the Labor day 9/4 then the top line results should be released the week of 9/17. If Amarin follows same pattern as with Marine and Anchor and releases top line results on Monday. That would be either Monday 9/17 or Monday 9/24.
JL,
That's true. But now we are looking for the top oi results only. More detailed results will follow later.
HDG,
If we follow Anchor timeline as a reference, announcement between/on 9/17 and 9/24 is likely.
Assuming 8/31 - DB lock, 9/4 - DB unblinding.
Thank you for digging this. Good stuff as always.
Raf,
I said "it might be a potential red flag" that's different from what you wrote. Don't you think so? Anyway I'm tired of going circles with you. I expressed my opinion and it's up to everyone on this board to ignore it.
But I can tell you this. In the past 5 years I took advantage of every buying & selling opportunit in AMRN, I correctly predicted every dilution (remember many on this board including you were arguing with me on this), and both IA outcomes. Too much luck for a lucky guess. Don't you think so?
Now my September 10th call from April is more on target than majority of guestimates in HDG's contest.
This was my last reply to you. I have no more time to waste.
P.S. If you continue to wait for all facts and concrete evidence in stock trading, eventually you'll the last guy holding the bag.
Raf,
Stop spinning BS already! Obviously nobody knows. Folks simply express their views based on available information, their observations, knowledge, and experience.
You just look silly asking ppl to provide concrete evidence to support their "guesstimates".
It almost looks like you are going nuts waiting for the results, sleepless nights aren't good for you.
Relax and try to get some sleep.
Raf,
I hope you realize "by the end of Q3" and later "by the end of September" doesn't mean the very last day of September. IMO if we don't get a PR on Monday something might be off.
On the other note, I think your problem is lack of experience with trading stocks. Usually paying attention to only company statements is the quickest way to get slaughtered especially in the bio world.
Ask those who were here in 2012.
JL,
Why would my opinion be wrong?
First, the 8/31 is a date for the data lock and JT stated the company won't PR the data lock.
Second, we don't know when the data analysis started. Was it on 9/1 or 9/4 or later because not all experts were available until later date.
Third, we don't know how many days is required for the data analysis in this particular case 1, 3, 5?We can only guess.
Fourth, as I stated many times before, my estimate for the top line results is Monday, September 10th.
If we don't get a PR on Monday morning then I would gladly admit that either my guess was wrong or something else is going on.
Raf,
Yes, I don't know because I have never been involved in the process like this. That's why I listen to the company and some posters on this board who seem to know what they are talking about.
From what I understand the process is computerized. Meaning results can be calculated and appear on computer screen in seconds. Next step is Amarin reps and the team of experts reviews the results and manually re-check them. How long this process takes? I'm not sure. But I don't see it taking more than a week including weekend if necessary.
So if we don't get news on Monday morning, it would tell me something else is going on.
So is it going to be a PR with a BO offer or a PR with FDA fast track info?
I'm confused now. lol
Raf,
JT made this remark on 8/27 just a few days before the end of August. If you have only few days left you pretty much know if you are going to make it or not. IMO 8/31 is a deadline the company set for any ongoing follow ups to get last pieces of data.
Trust me if the PE RRR is 30%+ with strong SE numbers, it's completely irrelevant when the company releases this news. The market will love it.
On the other hand, if PE RRR is <15%. The company would consider playing damage control that would include time of the PR release.
Raf,
You are mixing two different processes. If data collection, scrabbling/cleaning took longer than expected it does not necessarily mean the data analysis for final results should take longer as well.
JT made it very clear the DB will be ready for lock by August 31st.
"Amarin has to be sensitive to Jewish holiday" - are you kidding me? It's not like V has unlimited patent protection. The clock is already set. Every day counts as every wasted day is a lost revenue and the CEO knows it better than anybody else.
While I agree there could be some legit reasons for the delay, I would still see no PR on Monday morning as a potential red flag.
Maz,
What are your expectations for the RI results?
No news is good news on Friday night.
This is from August 14th. In the latest call on August 24th JT stated that all major steps for data lock will be completed be the end of August.
Marzan's paradise is between $4 & $4.60??? That can't be true! lol
You are missing my point.
I would prefer a PR tomorrow morning and a call on Monday morning. Just like they did 2 weeks ago with ASCEND PR.
Not sure about flip flops but one thing is clear to me - commercials did next to nothing for scripts growth.
According to JT the company is spending $15-$20 mil this year on advertisement...
Depends on results...
GSK, AZN, PFE, TEVA. Two shares for one and lots of cash on top. This board starts looking like YMB back in 2012.
How about we get through RI results first?
BB,
The trial is powered to detect 15% RRR.
If it detects let say 14% PE RRR with stat significance. The trial won't be considered failed. Other therapies were approved with much lower RRR.
BB,
Less than 15% doesn't necessarily mean the trial failed. The PE still can be statistically significant with lower % RRR.
I agree the numbers will be available almost immediately after the DB lock. However those results need to be reviewed, verified, and confirmed. While the group of experts is reviewing the numbers Amarin is still technically blinded. Therefore 4 day rule does not apply until the results are confirmed and communicated to the CEO.
I disagree. Data lock and results analysis is work in progress and cannot be limited to 4 days. Only after the analysis is complete and the group of experts agree on results and submit them to JT only then the 4 day clock starts ticking.
Any result negative or positive is a material even and has to be reported within 4 days.
I see what you are trying to say. If we don't get a bad PR today or tomorrow the latest - we are good as a bad PR can be ruled out. I don't think so. Nothing is garanteed at this point.
Marzan,
Excellent DD. GSK cutting 650 jobs in the US = GSK is buying AMRN for $20bill.
You have a talent when it comes to connecting the dots...
The only guess really matters here. That is RRR...
Companies usually keep bad PRs for Friday night. I would prefer Amarin to release news on Monday at 6am with a follow-up conference call at 8am.
I agree. The only comment I have is they probably started on Tuesday or even today (Monday was a holiday). Not sure if outside experts had to travel from other states that might take some time too.
If we don't get results on Monday morning, I would get nervous.
Btw next Monday was my original guestimate back in April when I bought AMRN back for the one last round.
That's nonese. Any results good or bad have to be made public in 4 days. However, the count starts when JT gets the results not when the DB is unlocked.
JT has millions of his money and future of his company at stake.
I think he's anxious to see the results.
Do you really think they will take the result computer throws at them and run with it? They will manually re-check every number before agreeing on results and sending them to JT.
That will take time.
If there was any BO negotiation ongoing we would see it in the sp. BO negotiations are complicated and often involve WS firms that serve as advisers. Leaks happen all the time. Nothing has leaked here as far as I can tell.
Your assumption is based on the fact that Amarin reps and external experts worked through the long weekend to get the results out this morning. This might not be the case. There's a good chance people (especially outside experts) were not available this past weekend and the company decided to unload the DB today or later this week when everyone is available.
I agree 100%. Not to mention Amarin would probably want the label approval process with FDA to go as smooth as possible. Not worth aggravating FDA after successful RI. We all well know what FDA is capable of when it comes to approvals and ADCOM questions...
Although I've been trading AMRN for 8 years, I was not in AMRN prior to 12/31. I participated in January run-up from 3.1 to 4.2 and re-entered in April. This is when I posted my guestimate.
As long as I care I will win regardless if my guess turns out right. Everything else is a time killing exercise while waiting for the results.
Raf,
My logic was simple. For the date (9/10), I figured it will take them longer to perform the final analysis than 1st & 2nd IA simply because final typically takes longer as it has to be 100%. No cutting corners, no leaving things for later. JT sort of confirmed that in his Q1 ER CC remarks back in May.
For the 22% RRR. Although it can be substantially higher, I think higher doze of statin compared to Jelis will take its toll. Statins reduce not only LDL, but also inflammation and Trigs. I also wanted to account for unknown unknowns and possible compliance issues. Swallowing 4 large capsules with unknown substance (could be placebo) a day every day for 5 years is a commitment.
Of course.
My guess from April is still in play.
Next Monday, 22% RRR. lol