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Supreme Court DNA Decision and INO
Someone from here (sorry I hub erases mail after you read so I do not remember who) asked me to comment on this.
For those that do not know the Supreme Court ruled that you cannot patent natural dna. The key here is NATURAL.
I am sorry to the delay on this but I needed to consult some people that would know the correct answer.
As I am sure most people here caught the Natural part of the ruling. You and I were correct. Synthetic constructs like Inovio use are not covered by the ruling and are indeed patentable.
While we were thinking after that that the ruling had no effect on Inovio, we were wrong. The ruling will help Inovio and other Synthetic DNA companies by eliminating from the field most natural DNA companies.
I agree with the decision. However I hope there is a way these companies can recoup their investment, I have not read the whole decision so I do not know.
Investors should have seen this as a potential risk. It is a topic that has been long debated. Management at some companies mentioned this risk. I bet there will be a long list of law suits claiming that management did not disclose this effectively. The truth is management did not think this ruling would happen this way which is why they were so invested too. I do think that management had a better idea of the potential risks, and in come cases did not educate the investors like they should have. Wow some lawyers will get rich! I hope they invest...
Spoke with J.Kim today for a minute or two. I expressed my personal appreciation for the brilliant way he handled the flu data. I also took the liberty of thanking him of behalf of the long investors as a whole and the ones on Ihub.
It is rare for people like him to hear thanks and job well done from their bosses so I try to relate that.
One day we all need to take up a collection and send they guys at INO lunch and a big thank you. If any of you are interested I would set up a pay pal and do it. But only if we are going to raise a few hundred to make it worth while. They love bbq there so fed exing a great bbq meal would be quite cool.
That is a good question. From what I am reading this is a reaction to the flu data. That is possible but it is really late for that. It is possible that the general public finally paid attention.
I personally wonder if some of the peer reviewed hiv article news has leaked. That had to go through many hands and if the data and the review itself are good it would justify the type of price and volume movement we have seen.
I still think that HIV data will be a major event and it will be released in a few weeks. I also thought it was coming in June just to remind everyone...
I bought 30k yesterday and will be picking up more today at some point if that helps anyone.
I am just hoping for a 90 close and holding at the 90 level for a while. That will put us in a nice place for a rally on HIV news. It it pulls lower than 90 I will be picking up another 30k.
you are right, i bought 30,000 more around 3 pm at 87 I think. I am trying to buy up a total of 100k more, but I am stepping in. I am hoping for a slight sell off maybe tomorrow..... we will see
The chart the guy is using is based on INO prior to being taken over by VGX. That makes it totally unrelated to the current company or management.
John_m_us
Thanks Kris. I hope we will break $1 soon and get our place back on ST.
Oh yeah, hiv data has been out of the companies hand for a few months. Ino is not the cause. The info has to be peer reviewed and published, that takes time. The publication has control over when. I know management is impatient too.
I do not know what joseph holds in his portfolio other than ino. From the ino point i am doing pretty well. I am sure he is too.
I am happy with the price action for now.
Lol yes I have been posting more on yahoo.
But I have not have much to say so I have been pretty quiet.
I will have a few worthwhile things to say next week.
It is almost June, I am starting to get excited. I hope we find that our man Joseph closed a good deal. I always hold out that it could have fallen through. I do know this, Joseph is the right guy and he would have walked away before he would have given stuff away.
I hope all of you are enjoying the ride, and that we all get the fun part of this soon.
That is the boards authorization to add that many shares if they feel it is necessary.
What the heck are you talking about?
Actually it was a good thought. Glad I could get the answer so quickly.
Why INO stock is too low..
I agree the stock should not be here. I gave my opinion (on Yahoo) a day or two ago where we should be. I believe around $1 to 1.50 is a fair price for now. We are about half of where we should be. I can tell you when I started with VGX back in 2002, there was much resistance to the small molecule drugs based on their concepts. While ultimately these drugs failed, the science behind them was proven to be effective. We are dealing with technology that many scientists still say is impossible. We got the same flu protection from a consensus vaccine that the current vaccine gives to the circulating strains. Many scientists said that was impossible.
We are far beyond making a new and better statin, or a new antibiotic in an already existing class. Our drug also requires a new and novel delivery technology. With any disruptive technology, it takes a long time to gain acceptance.
Not everyone here has had their dog treated with Lifetide dna GHRA vaccine by VGX Animal Health like I can. My dogs were electroporated with the cattle device. I can appreciate how amazing the results were first hand. That can be extrapolated over to humans too. This is why I am so big on VGX animal health. I am amazed no one here has contacted me about investing in it, even though I have brought it up many times. And these people are INO fans.... If you like INO, you should like VGX animal health MORE. Heck, I have been trying to raise the funds to buy out the company from Inovio for a few years with no success.
Any way I have no problem seeing why the market does not value the company properly.
Kyle, am I making enough noise for you now???
Expiration dates... Some were asking if the Ino vaccines had a longer expiration date. They felt this may be true because these vaccines do not need to be refrigerated. Joseph responded that this was not true and the stability tests were showing 3 to 5 years for expiration currently.
Still, the ability not to refrigerate these vaccines is a game changer. Much of the 3rd world has trouble storing and delivering vaccines due to the need of refrigeration.
I see some up now. They are options exercised at .67, not bad.
A quick note: I was off on my Lipitor, it was making 10 billion a year when the patent expired. However, 4 billion would beat it for the first few years.
Flu Vaccine Profit. I just want everyone to take a minute to consider how much profit would be made with a successful flu vaccine from Inovio. According to a few quick yahoo searches, there are about 160 million flu vaccines every year in the US. I was too lazy to look up the rough profit for each dose, and I do not think such profit margin would apply to INO any how. Flu shots cost 15 to 30 dollars, with much of this cost going to the administration of the actual shot.
An Ino consensus vaccine would be able to command a much higher price, but would only increase the cost a small amount. A flu shot that costs $20 has about $12 to the shot administration fee for the nurse and or pharmacist. That leaves about $8 for the vaccine itself. Due to the many advantages of a dna consensus vaccine you could easily charge $20 for the vaccine alone, then adding in the $12 for administration arrive at a cost of $32. I will be more bold in this and say we could charge $50 for the vaccine alone, and have a total cost of $62. Heck a nice round number of $100 can easily be justified. But lets work with $50 for now.
The consensus vaccine can demand a premium due the working against all known strains and potentially working against any unknown strains as well. On top of that, the need of not getting a shot next year is very compelling to most. The question is how often you would need to vaccinate. From what I know you would be looking at 3 to 5 years at first, and perhaps much longer as data is evaluated. This too supports a premium price. When compared against $20 a year for a standard shot, you and your insurance company would save good money paying $50 for the Ino vaccine, and it is easy to understand how we could price a shot at $100, while still saving the US as a whole substantial money. This is about as win/win as a situation ever gets.
So lets thing profit. We are charging $38 for vaccine, the profit margin will be about $28 per dose (not after RND costs. So $28x160 million about 4.4 billion. comes to about 4.4 billion. You can expect to keep that rate up for about 2 to 3 years in the US (provided INO is the only consensus vac on the market). World wide, vaccination rates will go up using the DNA based vaccines. A major reason for this is the simple matter of they can be stored at room temp. and need no refrigeration, which is a big problem in the 3rd world. Also the fact that this vaccine cannot make you sick and is only administered every few years also increases the demand.
The down side is after 3 years, you have vaccinated the bulk of the US population, and then you are just vaccinating babies and new arrivals to the US. However, by then, we have made over 12 billion dollars. This compared to Lipitor (the most successful drug of all time) for total profit, and in a much shorter time.
So we could charge similar prices for HIV, Hep. Gardasil costs $360 for a course, which is 3 shots over 6 months. The question is would the general population want HIV and Hep as much as flu once these vaccines are made. My guess is NO. At least not in the beginning. I think 10 years later they will be common to all. The question is will we still be in patent protection then, and the only game in town. The odds are NO. But we will make multi billions first. How much would the homosexual community pay for an HIV vaccine? My guess is more than $360.
These are top of the head numbers, and I can promise people can find justification for both higher and lower. If you are all really interested, I will get real manufacturing and cost data, but I do not think it will enlighten us much more at this time. I know I will be pushing for a higher price for the Vaccine in the first world than I used in this example.
Absolutely correct.
Good question. Populations in areas that are in and or near common outbreak areas for Ebola would be vaccinated. The. You would compare the infection rate of the vaccinated patients to the general public in that certain area. Same thing is done HIV currently.
I am not trying to defend the author. I just do not see a conspiracy in the article timing or in which companies he recommends. Oddly enough he recommends ONCS which shows just how much information he is missing. Oncs has a good position in its area, but it is licensing its technology from INO, so if you like one you should like the other.
Yes I do. The article covers many different companies. If he had the ability to know that INO would be releasing information on Ebola today, he would be pretty well informed indeed. So he would need to know about 2 days in advance and publish his article then. I am not buying that.
I do not see it as a hit article, I just think the author is not very well informed on his topic. I am happy to see people calling attention to electroporation which is a major Inovio strength. It is important to correct the the author to keep the public properly informed though.
Did anyone read the new SA article? I noticed it incorrectly identified the Inovio method of action for the cervical cancer vaccine and mistakenly said that Inovio's electropoation had failed in several trials. I commented to that effect.
It was a nice general article. I like people bringing electroporation to the attention of the investment community. For all practical purposes, Inovio owns that process. It could be more profitable than any single vaccine for the company.
That is an impossible question to answer well. If you search my posts, I wrote one that was quite detailed on the subject a month or so ago.
I would say between .70 and $3. There are so many factors that will resolve by the end of the year, and any negative data could crush us. My most realistic guess is 1.50 to 2.00 by year end. I can make a case for $10, and it is possible. Going under is highly unlikely,
No I am not a journalist, I am an investor.
You may not be aware, but unlike the US where everyone is welcome to invest in our markets, Korea does not allow foreign investors unless they are buying over a 10% stake in a company, or get special government permission. I was buying 6% so I had many hoops to jump through. Joseph and company had the Korean Government in had by the time I got there, so it was a simple signing of papers. That and the normal setting up of accounts and stuff like that took 2 trips. The rest were for some pretty silly reasons that popped up but could not be fixed but for taking that 13.5 hour flight from Atlanta to Seoul. Not to worry, Korean Air fist class is quite wonderful. Still it was a challenge, as I had more work in the US to do than I could cover, and VGX/VGXI was really a small part of the portfolio I was dealing with back then.
Joseph spends quite a lot of time in Asia, much of it in Korea. He was in Asia last week, and I think in Korea too. He meets with Inovio investors often, I have little doubt he would be happy to meet them in Korea provided it fits in with his schedule. One thing to note, even though he is of Korean decent, Joseph does not speak Korean. I know he has been learning, but I doubt he would be able to handle a meeting. The good news is there are plenty of people in the company that do, and I am sure it would be easy to get someone from VGXI to attend as well. If we can get firm commitments from about 20 investors to attend I will start working on it. Obviously, we will most likely be looking 2 or 3 months out.
Mm are market makers. They keep blocks of stock in inventory so there are always shares to buy. They do have the power to manupulate the market some. I personally think they rarely if ever do that but many disagree.
Did you see my feb interview with joseph kim? If nit you may want to watch.
If there is a large number of inovio holders in seoul that may want to come together i could arrange a meeting with joseph when he is in seoul sometime. I am sure they would like that.
Inovio currently owns 16% of VGXI. I am very familiar with the founding of VGXI as I did some of the bridge financing for the take over of Dog Il fabric. I sympathize with the language problem, as I had the exact situation while dealing with the Korean market back when we started VGXI. I had to make about 7 trips to Seoul in the first 12 months of that deal... I am very fond of the Park Hyatt there now.
The Korean market is much more excited about biotechnology than the US market, so biotechs there move more shares and more in price than in the US. The flu also has more impact, as the bad flu outbreaks tend to be in China, which is much closer to the Korea than the US.
As far as the deal with a large Pharmaceutical company is concerned, the talks have been around licensing INO product or products. The company is not trying to sell itself. I guess anything is possible but the intent is to license a product or products...
You have a good weekend too!
I will do my best to answer. First, you do not come across as English being your firs language. What is your country and language of origin? Do you reside in the US?
INO has a few DOD contracts. The most recent is for the development of the electropoation device for use in vaccinations. This is a long term type of development and not something the flu or Syria would have any impact on in the short term. Perhaps it would make the DOD give more money to INO which could have a positive effect the price.
Syria as a whole is not much of an issue for biotech stocks. Most of their weapons are believed to be chemical not biological. INO technology is useful against biological agents not chemical. The market as a whole is just not feeling Syria is a big issue. I do think Syria has bio weapons, and should be a small catalyst for bio research, but this does not change the global picture at all. Maybe if terrorist groups are shown to get possession the market will react.
Companies that make gloves, mask, and hand sanitizer are directly impacted by a flu outbreak. People in the area of the flu outbreak run to the store and buy up large quantities of these items. This extra business drives up the stock price.
INO has a flu vaccine in phase 1 that should help. They are developing a vaccine specific for the h7n9 flu as well. Many other companies are doing the same thing. Only if this h7n9 grows to a very alarming situation with thousands of people infected would the INO vaccine be used anytime soon. The worse the infection gets, the better for companies in that business. I do believe that the flu has already driven INOs stock price up about .05 a share, so it has had a big impact on the price already.
The HIV data should be out this month. The exact date we do not know.
We are waiting for INO to have a nice size deal with a major pharmaceutical company. The discussions have been announced on many occasions by the company. I believe the earliest was last November. I know that INO wants this completed by June. I think it has a 50% chance of being done by then. The catch on a time is if you say one, the company you are negotiating with can use that to their advantage in the process. INO has to be willing to take more time if needed.
Congratulations for finding your way here and finding one of the best biotech companies ever. If you do not own INO I hope you take a lot of time evaluating the company. Keep in mind that biotech is VERY risky, and unpredictable. Most people should avoid these investments. If you still want to invest in biotech, you will not find a better company than Inovio.
Good question Kyle.
Insight I have, but that is it. I can tell you Joseph is totally intent on closing a big pharma deal by June. But no matter how much he wants it, Joseph will not take a low ball deal. He will get us a good value for what is given in a deal.
Experience tells me to expect the deal in June or late summer. We will see.
I have no information on who we are involved with but a little thought tells you the most likely candidate is Merk. The connections between INO and Merk are deeper than most people think. Even though INO poaches many good people from Merk, the companies keep good relations. Merk has the advantage of having employed Joseph and many of the principals of both companies know each other quite well.
That said, the field is wide open. I just know that Merk knows more about INO than most companies.
I do not understand your question, could you clarify please?
That time frame is about right in most cases.
Reference my last post for more information on that. I did not say fast was not important. Being first is really not important. I can tell you though that Inovio wanted to be first and had they been they would shout it from the roof tops.
Access to the virus would decide on when the start point for the vaccine started. I believe that Greffex got access before Inovio did.
Actually, you are bashing INO. Frankly I do not know why.
Inovio has said they were working on a vaccine. They did not say they would be first. They were having difficulty getting access to the virus as quickly as they needed. I think it speaks well of Greffex management that they were able to get access to the virus faster than INO. The real question on speed would have to be measured from when each team got the virus to work on. I have no doubt that Ino wanted to be first.
I do not have too much to bash about Greffex in the technology and innovation area. I do have many questions about them from a management and transparantcy angle.
A previous post noted that it was difficult to tell from their web site what stage certain vaccines are in. That is one issue. I could not tell from their web site what exactly their delivery method is. It appears to be a synthetic viral vector to me. That seems a good idea for getting aound infection and unintended consequences of viruses. However, the viral vectors have all failed. Either way, there is no data on their delivery system, and what levels their delivery system is capable of delivering.
Also missing is how their vaccine is manufactured. If you have been following J. Kim said that manufacturing a vaccine in chicken eggs could be a real problem. I am guessing they are not using this process due to the fact it is a DNA based vacine. But that does not have to be true. Also, trying to ramp up production using the egg method will add many months to the process of getting a vaccine to the people. Inovio has no such handicaps.
I have been involved with VGX/Ino since it was much smaller than Greffex is today. I do understand that the smaller company with little data can be better. I do however know that experience in human subjects is important. I cannot name how many treatments that INO had in preclinical that we all though would work, and never made it past phase 1.
Inovio has had excellent proof of concept and (limited) efficacy data that shows their flu vaccine approach works. Just over a week ago they released HUMAN data that showed their universal flu vaccine gave equil protection as the current specifically formulated flu vaccines. Many scientists said that was impossible. That is the first time that has ever been proven.
I really do not understand your hostility tword Ino and other biotech companies being public. VGX/INO ran 4 clinical trials (all of them failed) as a private company. That is very rare, as most companies are unable to raise enouch capital to do that privately. If you want to compete in the biotech space, eventually you have to go public, or have billionaire backers.
Greffex has so far not funded even one clinichal trial. You say they have been around a long while but they have done nothing. That is not a good sign. It could be it took a long time to develop the technology, I just do not know.
Most companies that have drug/vaccine canidates think they will work. Thinking it will work is no substitute for science. I am sure their vaccine works at the cellular level, they have not had enough time to even give animal data yet. Then we still have no data about their delivery system. If they had proof of concept at least to phase 1 they would be in line to have their vaccine used if a serious emergency were declared. But given they have no proof of concept yet, they are not.
Greffex seems to be a decent company tech wise. They have many mistakes on their web site and in disclosing data about their products that Inovio did not have when they were that small. Their may be valid reasons for this. They may not have had the money to proplerly patent and protect their IP, and do not want to give any real science about their results and encourage others to replicate their work. But giving data about their uptake results on their delivery system would not divulge how to make it. Greffex could be more successful then Ino. It is possible. Greffex is however, a bad company to use for claiming Ino is deficiant in any areas of their vaccine and or business practices. Another thing, I did notice that Greffex did not win vaccine of the year, or manufacturer of the year like Inoio did.
Challenge? Ino could easily produce vaccines that quickly. But quickly is good. Correct is better.
This company has no trials under its belt. Why is that?
I may have missed it but I did not see any Inds filed either. So they are in the pre clinical stage.
I think they have really interesting tech from what little I have read. I hope they have much success. I think this is the most interesting tech I have seen in a long time. There is always room for another great company in this business..
Are you referring to Greffex? Cause I have no idea on that. I am not even sure they are public. I did not see them anywhere, but it was a sloppy check late last night.
INO having Cellectra or any EP device approved would be a nice bump to the stock price. I have no idea how much, but my guess is it would put INO in the $3 range with no other events.
Few know that INO is a device company as well. Devices, Pharmaceuticals, Animal Health. It is a bug umbrella for such a small company.
The ep devices are manufactured at the ino san diego office. I think the ability to raise production to thousands a day rapidly would make enough ep devices to respond. It would take a few weeks to make enough vaccine.
Lets do the math 1 vaccine every 10 sec, less 1 dose for stuff that happens, so 5 per minute, 300 an hour 7200 per 24 hours per unit. Multiply by 300 units that is 2,160,000 per 24 hours.
That would easily help vaccinate a surrounding area to an outbreak in a few weeks.
It is a tiny company from what little I could find. I think their vaccine is mostly talk.
A check of clinicaltrials.gov shows No clinical trials by this company. So their delivery platform has no trial history to validate it nor their vaccines. Noemally phase 1 is required fir emergency use. I am sure if things got really bad that could be waved.
Cudos to them grabbing good pr. I like what i read about their technology, I need to look up some stuff to make sure I understand.