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Just bought a nice bunch of shares at fire sale prices.
yes, because they are in passive organic polymers for displays ( TV, Iphones,computer screen etc) and Lebby often has referenced their business model as being what Lightwave had in mind. Interesting comparison for several reasons. One, the OLED market is dominated by two Tier 1 companies : Samsung and LG, and 2. TV screen saw only a few technical breakthroughs in almost 90 years: Cathode Ray Tubes, Plasma TV, LED , OLED. Organic Polymers.
The Internet saw none yet and in my opinion will opt for organic polymers as well and maybe dominated by a handful of very big companies.
Hope you guys noticed that the LWLG investor slide deck mentioned 'research analysts' visiting the OFC live demonstrations. In Belgium Michael Lebby told us that these analysts have been following Lightwave seriously since last year's OFC. Analyst attendance kind of neutralizes the argument, often mentionned here, Wall Street would not be seriously interested and would not do any research. To the contrary Wallstreet is interested and is seriously following Lighwave Logic already for quite some time.
Proto, thank you for this pretty realistic scenario for 3 dollars net earnings per share. Taking OLED's Price Earning Ratio of 37 , which I believe is conservative, gets you to 37x $3 = $ 111 theoritical share price. Again for 1 customer, for 1 application. Whatever, the upside potential is huge and the downside is very limited.
On volumes... what a luxury problem to have.
X, yes.
CEO's of large multinationals are responsible for the strategic direction of the company, they need to secure business continuity 10 -15 years ahead, outwit their competition and to maximize shareholder value in the process.
For a trillion dollar company, a couple of billion dollars is small change. For the current shareholders in Lightwave it would be a huge windfall.
What I like about your message, it focusses on the customer, the demand side.
Too many people here get completely entangled in the complexities of the supplyside, the technology, reliability, manufacturability. Absolutely important requirements, for success. BUT the biggest challenge in any business is to offer exactly what your CUSTOMER wants and you know you are golden when the customers start to 'dragging you along'. Lightwave already showed world class performance and performance upside for years to come. That's what customers really like.
Engineers figure out the solutions if they know what is required from them. These guys love it when you give them the required specifications and you tell them when.
The days of 2 X per two years or Moore's law are behind us. Lebby tells us the industry needs 100X every two years. The internet as we have to come to know it has aged and no longer can offer the bandwidth required for the next 10 -15 years. The current internet is comparable to the first steammachine we now need to enter into a new industrial revolution. It needs a radical change and fortunately for us , the CEO's of Internet companies are pretty much aware and prepared to look for new solutions outside the current box.
These big customers want the future now, outsmart the competition,, lower cost of ownership, current organizational capabilities, no capital investments, no write offs. I think they gladly pay billions of dollars to secure the future of their enterprise and for ' peace of mind and guaranteed bonus pay outs".
TSMC targeting 12.8Tbps co-packaged silicon photonics in 2026. Nice to see TSMC moving seriously into Silicon Photonics as well.
Redspine, I would not call that a danger, I would call that a very welcome surprise announcement. Exactly the kind of surprise I am hoping we will get rather sooner than later if it were up to me! In fact if I was that big multinational company I wanted a first mover preferential treatment.
Yes Lewrock that’s the first law of holes: "if you find yourself in a hole, stop digging".
The second law of holes is commonly known as: "when you stop digging, you are still in a hole."
Mind you these guys keep on digging until they get to the other side of the globe, if they don’t perish in the process.
Happy to share that my order was filled and that the timing was excellent. What’s even better is that I predict that we will see the share price go up from hereon because more people will be convinced that Lightwave is on its way to make incredible deals.
Numbers will drive sentiment and underlying sentiment is improving moving towards the ASM in less than a month time from here.The very small army of known bashers and their arguments are sounding more hollow and out of place and out of touch by the day. I really recommend them to start packing their suitcases, it’s time to go. It’s a friendly and very well meant advice. You have this weekend to think it over….
I will
It is obvious that many here are out of place, out of touch and out of arguments. They haven't figured it out yet.
Just put an order in for 10.000 shares. See if it fills today.
Checked Lebby’s compensation after coming home, It’s higher and about what I made 15 years ago. Very reasonable compensation for a CEO managing a high tech innovative company,
Think1st, when 200 mm wafers are leaving the production line you may assume these issues are solved, In fact Lebby confirmed that several times now at different occasions,
Chart reader. It may come as a surprise we have our own chart readers. So you don’t add any additional value. If you don’t mind I put you on ignore.
Put simple for everybody to understand:
there are 21 Mio shares in high demand over and above the current supply of shares and this already for months.
Lesson number 1 for first class high school pupils in economics, if demand is greater than supply prices must go up.
Thank you Spekkie. You can be my Dutch friend.
During my drive to the golf it daunted on me that the shorting has an direct economic or non value added cost of around $ 10 per share ( difference between fair value and current price) to society or $ 120 Mio and the opportunity costs may even be higher. Here we have people who believe a 270.000 pay CEO package per year and a yearly budget of $ 5 Mio in SG&A including R&D and Operations is '' grifting'". What a destructive force of jokers.
People here continue 'to catch flies between themselves' whilst the company shows tremendous progress. That's what should be subject of discussion. The company is working on mass fabrication to be able to serve it's Tier 1 volume customers in my opinion. Don't understand why people don't see this.
I tried my best for today. Go for a game of golf.
On the left the magnified ( surrounded by a green square) part of a 200 mm wafer with many different device structures, not just modulators. Of course the different parts on the wafer need to be diced and stacked into a entire PIC. Obviously the 200 mm wafer has been produced and contains all the elements to construct the PIC. On the right uou see a picture of an 800 G comparison betwen Arista and Lighwave's slot modulator of the 2023 ASM. For a good observer even this configuration can be identified on the 200 mm wafer.
What does it mean: Lightwave is close or even ready for mass scaling of its PIC's.
Hope all the people here understand the magnitude and the implication of this achievement.
1. you see a 200 mm wafer and:
2. you see modulators
3. you see elements for the PIC on the wafer
all coming from the foundry.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/AP1GczN_OfKeVeg4mo0iQCZRaI3hXhLt0B_3QB1WhmGNuaFsQkPH50Htq0BVsj5PPAwy7dKn1aWmMt3wbbiJO14k1kskoxtp2rcpjqeI21ZRBMFXWM-efWnApvtn-w4KZaiaZ5XTfr8sJbeFbrmCFesFFekyA7rcGwTb6FrXjw03ZllsUOafYfvgK2gglHmYucmsLep8AUfC_mgpp5ehhXMEdMNSnr5tlblDvKX1Zd6cbegbRy4812nE_pzlrTlRt8O4S48VD0-2SMq8atqllIEfjCK_QK02NX7045AwKyU7dABdZ-FbXYBfW-ryVLKsBCYInLCRTIsmS3VJKpTWarkC827NmqGN1opIGhfYtkUPqusYVreS0udRDXm2XEW95byLkkhucczsMYSBj_0p59-ezDIHdu03Z3MU_wzS2trShpSkIWDZiK1wX1EHcpv6E5K9p32lsB6idCHfcSXqVF1wpjoQtgcOVclkl8arNNRHhEWHiKnZQeWRxIqCzr9hKWjwSUz2UWHtI1emZou8QlvxYjE85825lNiw1SM19AVaeujozKe5GZQb2cv66xb0O7G5aIZbrHXa_LSl01dDgk5V8DajtqKHjF-PpkFi96yKUtf67wZ2m9YTyvpIF5Wfbm7NvUih36lVNjVlvZ_mqhhAm4MkKkeGDlJh9jXo83L3_g5ukpuKLYila1ihDlOfRgzi-aIpFSub8YHegZzBKd7r26zGuZ22PvH-MTz8gSSuULks6Had10pynLJt4eSw5MwRN-hUahULJphYDVI7tGJG1ZkBxhekp2dGnI0J8UV-7iesNJtvYUTuonHYlINp_9v-kqVu62fzmMkckkFw-KQzETwy5sn3Z0PCZlp_h2znMjNMUtD4XI8Tg1ZS9yPX52u9ZH2Sdi25SxJGP8exDJ05zUmu77VK=w1432-h798-s-no-gm?authuser=0
Ruud, I am afraid that the happier we get, the more the shorts will push it down until such time!
Fortunately we can rely on some excellent technical people who understand more about the complexity of the technology and read the company communication differently than the ‘ average shareholder ( me included). In fact Lebby’s presentations often include information which is not noticed by the audience . Probably an area where a good PR company could do a better job. Simplifying and making it more understandable for shareholders. It is very different to communicate among ‘ nerds’ or to communicate to the general public.
Studying the 200 mm wafer coming from the foundry and magnifying it ( pictures are available in LWLG presentations) clearly shows arrayed modulators configurations or a PIC, as well as other single modulators. Wafers need to be sliced to separate the various parts. Obviously ‘ under construction’ means ‘ in manufacturing ‘, it’s being build. Seems to me the final step . I am very confident a surprise is in the making.
I think it’s very important to tell my Belgian friends who attended the Antwerp event and heard Lebby use the word ‘ under construction ‘ for the 4 modulator arrayed PIC on a 200 mm wafer, that ‘ under construction’ means ‘perfecting the wafer runs for mass scale production’ ! I guess people heard ‘ Tier 1 deals’ and than ‘ under construction’ and concluded ( like me) this could take longer than expected. Wrong interpretation. It means exactly that we are progressing as planned and indicated and moving to mass scale production. I honestly think a lot of people got confused and drew the wrong conclusion. Sometimes communication has its pitfalls. Sometimes with far reaching consequences if speaker and audience are on different ‘wavelengths’ . Hope this helps.
Will do ( my) tonight. On my to the golf.
One question I asked was: “ last year in 2023 you gave volume guidance during the ASM. Given the increased stated interest in your presentations over the last couple of months and especially after OFC, as you just indicated again, can you reconfirm those volumes kind of as a minimum and/ or may we also expect increased volumes as a result of the increased interest? The answer I and others heard was : “ the increased excitement could indeed lead to a revision of these volumes”.
There is only one inescapable interpretation based on cause and effect …! Of course he couldn’t say : yes, and he couldn’t say: no. Both answers would have brought him in legal problems.
For many years my business activities in a public company in the USA were internally appraised by my contribution to earnings and therefore easily translated into dollar figures per share.
At the end of the day and consolidated this would add up to the overall company earnings per share. The market share price often already anticipated the earnings and only if we would deliver a few cents more than expected would the share price go up. Record quarters or record years were often met with a ‘yawn’ because this performance was a kind of filtered in by the market. Sometimes when we laid off people in one of the many factories, the share price would go up, because it wasn’t expected and it the ( perverse) market saw it as an unexpected cost reduction and earnings improvement.
Why do I mention this ? Because there is a difference between today’s share price and expectations and to fully understand what future directed actions by company leadership and employees are under way.
Simple, Lebby wants to win the end game and that is exceptional and sustainable shareholder value for the long term. Today’s share price is a reflection of current market sentiment,
That will change when Lebby and company are able to surprise the market. That surprise is in the making. I am convinced. The surprise will have the most impact on those who didn’t think it would happen. That’s the law of the market.
Our questions were around the following aspects: market interest, partner progress, reliability and possible customer concerns, customer readiness, organizational morale, financial sustainability and 2023 volume guidance revision. Most of these questions were addressed direct or indirectly and where legally possible. So most of us went home with a deeper understanding:
Did you hear my question (s) to Michael Lebby ? No, you didn’t. Asking questions is a powerful tool. We learned that from the old Greek philosophers. It’s much more powerful to gain insights than making ‘ cocked up’ statements. Lots to learn from questioning.
Lebby’s latest presentation is on the Lightwave website. If you mean our notes and summary ? I can provide that and will because I appreciate people who are interested to take in information and than make up their mind.
Be aware that there is a whole army of smart asses here who have already ridiculed and questioned our interpretations without even participating in the event. They don’t need additional information, because they made up their mind long ago.
will do
Atikem is a Marketing & Sales guy and it shows. He is more open and a simplifier of complex technology issues for consumption by investors. Lebby appreciates him very much and told me: ' Atikem is really, really very good with customers'. Both gentlemen complement each other very nicely, Atikem combines deep industry understanding with excellent relationship management and development. He gave me a great insights in the current business dynamics and I can better relate to his insights since I am not an engineer and certainly no sparring partner to Lebby who is a global thought leader on photonics and the ideal CEO in this complex and highly technical field with mine fields full of engineering & manufacturing complexities. Most of my contributions here the last couple of days are based on his input. The sense of urgency in the supply chain. the sudden acceleration of new Tier 1 demands on Lightwave's organization and urgency of requirements is based on my discussions with him. Engineering teams on both sides are working their asses off to make it happen.
Been there, done it. Next best option is to get a head start on the competitors and/or partners form an alliance. It requires for both parties to prioritize and work faster. From a partner perspective, it requires company leadership support, resource allocation and exersizing maximum pressure on Lightwave. It feels like being 'dragged along'.
I will take care. I assume you read Dutch?
That’s kind of happening already. It’s ‘ algo’s against the people’ . Algorithms are in fact a positive thing here. Algo’s have no emotions and will reverse course quickly if they have created the platform to make more money by letting the share price reverse course as well. The people you refer to here are hired to work on the emotions of retail investors. It’s their job, Just disregard their messages, you mood will improve.
No problem. If you get Walter’s updates you will have it already. Let me know.
Yes around 40 NDA’s. Never claimed all Tier1’s. Don’t think there are even 40 Tier 1’s. I told this board 2-3 years ago I thought there were 13 NDA’s. I repeated that number last week and asked for confirmation . That number was now ‘“ at least 3X” ( 3X 13= 39). I made it around 40. I have witnesses that heard this statement as well. I wouldn’t put a number up here without a verifiable source. Yes LWLG has decided to allocate its current engineering resources to Tier 1 companies ( not 40 ). Seems a wise business choice for the moment and yes there is a lot of pressure from these companies to make it happen asap.
Just home. Will get to you all.
Kijk in je mail.
NRDC, happened to see you post. Love you for all the enlightenment you bring to this board and especially the great, constructive contributions. Your entrepreneurial capabilities are a delight to this board.