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Lol.
Anyone who thinks o2 is anything more than a means to enrich management from the pockets of investors is a fool for whom I have a bridge to sell. Need to find a broker to sell this dog short.
The same bs he fed me when I visited the store over a year ago.
Bottom line, they were just regular Chinese handsets that anyone can buy.
How freaking serious can a company be when it's own website is outdated and incomplete? Features products no longer around.
I understand if this was some manufacturer, but this is a supposed technology company. You figure he would spend some of the money scammed from people into a good website.
So what did I miss with this scam?
Hey guys. Been a while, but was going to Florida next week and reminded me to check in on here after the last scouting report I did for members here.
So I see it popped to 45 cents... Was it reverse split or someone got suckered into pump and dump?
Surprised no one took legal action or reported him for fraud.
Secondly... Why have so fewer flew out to palm coast and talked to him face to face?
Ok, so here is the thing with European Village, this was a prime development during the upturn, and was nice. Then the company vent bankrupt, a few times iirc, and became run down, (not ghetto, just run down).
The condos above the stores would sell for $250k to $500k, fell to $30k or less. They have since rebounded, but still not there. A part of it is run as a hotel.
So, even though the stores are run and owned independently, half of them in European Village are empty. The store is also mostly a tourist area/trap, not where the towny's go.
Hopefully this helps you guys.
Lol, so true.
The crappy part is, it is a pretty nice location for the store, but it seems like he just has it for the looks, there is practically zero effort to run a "store".
He can run a pretty nice cell phone store there, but then again, even if it is far more profitable, it is not "sexy" enough of a story to sell the pump dream.
From my experience, it looks, feels and breathes like a pump and dump. I am just surprised more people did not fly down to florida. It is dirt cheap.
btw, I have no vested interest in this, I am neither long nor short this stock. I do not have any shares of it. I was merely interested in this company as I was looking at houses in Palm Coast Florida and ran accross this company during research.
More often than not, the money goes to paying for his lifestyle and other pet projects.
When I visited the store, I did not mention anything about this forum or stock, etc... merely a finance guy. He showed me some of the phones, but they were essentially regular unlocked Chinese cell phones that anyone can get on alibaba to brand as your own.
I did get a bit of a pitch, mostly about doing wireless internet service in Palm Coast.
Ortco,
I do not know if the store is open right now. My visit was back in August when I visited Palm Coast. I would not be surprised if he was closed now. There was like nothing, no one going into it.
I do have some pictures on my phone will upload later if I can find.
Hey guys, sorry did not update.
Yes, I did drop by the store. He was there. =) The "Store" was a mess. The only items for sale were basically just some phone accessories. Don't even know if they were original or fake stuff.
I don't know if he is a scammer or just a dreamer who can't execute.... however this is a poorly run business, and I have no clue how this company is valued $600k. lol.
I doubt it is mall minimums. They own the property, so can do as they please.
I will be in the area so will investigate this store and ask the locals that I know. In all reality, this just smells nothing more than a pump and dump, yet another Florida sham to bilk investors out of money so one guy can live a nice lifestyle.
I mean, I ran a cell phone store in the past.... it does not cost that much. Knowing palm coast... $50k would of purchase a nice condo in European Village.
As far as locations. lol. European village is a fairly dead complex. It is mostly there for restaurants. It is a very very very poor location for a business unless you are trying to cater to tourists.
European Village has a few nice restaurants that managed to stay in business, however the rest of the businesses there have been revolving doors.
When I was in Palm Coast about a month ago, I did not see anything in European Village.
Lol. I cam across this company doing a search for companies in Palm Coast, FL, as I am looking to expand my business down there and possibly move there.
yay, another financial professional who actually things straight. =P
yes, I do see low 6's even 5's.
Revenue? Sure... Earnings? Doubt it.
NYC Pension fund likely to sell $18 mil in gun companies.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/19/nycpension-guns-idUSL1E8NII7820121219
Then I would buy options. No need to stand in front of a freight train. Limit your exposure.
I bet a ton of stop loss orders were triggered this morning. Will see how many more will be hit tomorrow.
A few things....
once again, in the short term, talk of gun bans will increase sales. However, and this is a big one, you are not buying SWHC for next quarter's sales. You are buying them for the future cash flow.
A Gun ban will seriously cut revenues.
Look at Smith and Wesson stock from as early as you can through 2004, the last gun ban... stock did absolutely nothing.
If the ban happens, there is no reason for SWHC to go back down to $2, or even $.50 a share like it did years ago.
I spoke with an institutional manager today... here is his take...
Any fund that owns SW stock is getting out. Teacher Credit unions are pulling money from money managers that own gun stocks. (IE Cerebrus) So They will get out so that on the year end reports, they do not have to list SWHC and Ruger as stock holdings. They may buy back in next year.
Options....
Massive put buying, December (3 day expiration) in the $7 and $8 strike price.
I may be tempted to buy some Dec $7 puts for a few bucks.
Jan has a ton of $8 puts, and large amount of $7 put contracts. Open interest was 36 contracts, volume of 2,317 today alone.
March is at $7 puts.
Btw, you would be wise not to step in front of the freight train. Massive selling on over 14 million shares, more than triple the average volume should send up massive alarms.
You are not a bad guy if you sell a company short, or buy puts.
Not all garbage deserves to go up all the time. Short sellers keep the wishful garbage to reasonable levels.
SWHC was already starting to reverse and come back to reality after more than tripling this year. The CT incident merely accelerated that move as well as took out some buyers.
Is there value for SW? Yes.... around $4 or $5. Then we have to look at what the politicians want to do in terms of gun control.
If anything, Ruger has less to lose. They have less "evil" guns.
Bought some Jan $5 puts as lottery picks.
I tried to get the $6 but would not be filled at all, and the ask price kept increasing.
Ton of downside expected for March and on timeframe. Hoping it gets faster for Jan. These will pay off even if volatility increases before then.
They dont really have to sell. It depends on the pressure . If they run moeney for unions, maybe, otherwise... none at all.
I posted a link to this earlier. Cerebrus, a large hedge fund owned a large investment in Freedom Group, which owns Bushmaster, Remington, among others.
Sorry guys I tried to warn you.
Will do some numbers to see what the downside is. I could not believe my eyes how fast this boat is sinking, I did not expect $7 for a few days.
Cerebrus getting out of gun business. Selling its stake in Freedom Group.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100323238
Once again.... yes... it would make for more SHORT TERM profits.... but if they want to limit gun sales.... at what price? A BAN is bad for business... especially since the stock is a forward looking mechanism.
The runup already happened. Obama was elected, the stock went from $2.50 to $11.25 this year. Party is over.... in the short term.
If the ban happens, SWHC will be forced to look for profits in the government sector... and we are cutting spending. Furthermore, already parted with some government businesses.
In the time from 2002 to 2004, SWHC ws down 23%. During the last ban.
It ran up when the ban expired, from under $2 to over $20 in 2007
Daily and Weekly Charts
Where is everyone today? No one posting because stock is down? In any case... as I am now a co-mod will keep my comments more in line.
Anyhoo, here is my take on the daily and weekly charts.
These all serve is confirmation for the sell a week or so ago now.
The stock was bound to sell off for 10 different reasons, the school shooting was just number 11 and accelerated it.
If you are a long holder.... and sitting on profits, I would consider if it hit your upside and lock in gains.
If you are a long holder and are down, set a stop loss... I have a feeling $5 may be coming very very soon. Before anyone says january effect... it worked in 2012, In 2010 and 2011 SWHC finished down at the end of Jan for the month.
If you are short.... adjust your trailing stop, set price targets, lock in some gains, let rest ride.
I am likely to buy some $6 or so puts for March.
Make sure you keep a very tight check on your stop losses. It is very likely to be going into the low $8s or below in the near future.
If you have been long for a while, look into stock replacement. Lock in your gains, replace with options.
Gold down to $1,690 in early morning. Should be a good day for DUST.
Better yet, make sure teachers are armed. Problem solved.
Was up at Kittery trading post today. Store was busy but not suuuuper packed. A few people going there worrying about guns.
I deal directly with 20 FFL's so will have an idea of gun sales in the next week.
Here is the thing.... yes, gun control in short term is a boom for sales... however the market is a forward discounting mechanism. So it is looking at the time after gun control.
Here is the bigger issue. Is Obama going to go after firearms companies with lawsuits. That is what I am most afraid of, and is one of the company risks. He can fine them out of business.
Look at Washington DC. Even though guns are legal there, there is only 1 FFL, and he is a liberal, and makes it as hard as possible to buy a gun. But... because there is an FFL, Washington DC can say that guns are legal there.
This guy is more bearish that I am....
http://www.streetauthority.com/options-futures-derivatives/2-stocks-could-suffer-when-trend-ends-460192
calling for a $5 price target.
Its a great tragedy, but its only a tragedy because the media makes it worse.
In the same time, how many people died because of drunk drivers, heart desease, drugs or alcohol?
Its about Agenda. This will be a big agenda to control guns.
God forbid those kids were in a bus accident, you would of never heard about it on the news past 2 mins.
My prayers are with the families, but not more because it was gun violence and some guy went nuts.
That same thing can happen at any time, anywhere.
If you did not listen to the president's speech, I implore you to listen to it. gun control coming to a place near you.
Meanwhile, more people died by getting hit with a bat.... then a gun.
What?
Look at the volume. It sold off on nearly 3x the volume than the small rise today.
Will be good to see where it closes today.
I am sure the school shooting today cannot be helping.
Look out below, $9.25 on volume. Guys, check your stops if you had any.
Down on any serious volume. Was up on small volume. It's institutions getting out.
Thanks.
What is your cost basis on SWHC if you do not mind me asking?
I do not deal with individual securities, only managed money, funds, SMA's, Hedge funds. For a few clients I did recommend this as a spec and we got in around $3.50, with my personal cost basis being $2.50, and I sold at $7.50. So we made our money.
You can search for my posts here.
Personally, I could care less, I have seen too many people get burned, so just pointing it out. Everyone too quick to make moves and everyone too gung ho. No one wants to look at the history or actual company financials.
=) Carry on.
Btw, for all its worth, SWHC was on CNBC today, mentioned a $9 target.
I meant getting ahead that this thing is ready to rock. =)
People fall in love with the stock and fail to accept that there can be bad news, or it may not be the time.
If you are doing proper due diligence, you must give much more research to potential shortcomings. Anyone can find a reason why the stock can go up.... (ie look at fortune tellers and horoscopes).
Right now I am effectively a short holder of SWHC, as I own PUTS. As long as it goes below $9 a share sometime before March, I am ok. I am confident that it will break apart by then. However on a daily basis I look at the risks to the upside.
What gets me... as someone who invests for a living, and advises others, is how people on this forum, and tons of others... confuse investing and trading.
You cannot justify your long term holding with some short term techinical pop or what not of an hour period of time etc. Same thing if you are short.
Those things only matter if you are trading. At which point, it does not matter what the company does, only how the stock trades.
If I was trading this one... it is a pretty good stock to trade. It pops in the morning, like clockwork, then sells off.
Ok, I am rambling on.
In any case...just do your homework.... constantly.
Keep in mind... the picture was this rosy a year ago when the stock was $3 a share. So ask yourself, is the picture and the company 3 times better now? I don't believe so personally, at least they ought to prove it.
There is just tooo much risk to hold this as part of your overall portfolio anymore than say 5% of your investments.... not at this price.
$60,000 worth of shares between the CEO and a board member, lets not get ahead of ourselves.
It didn't gap up.... it closed at the high of the day...it opened right where it ended before. Once again, be very very very very very cautious about first 1 or 2 hours of trading. It is usually the retail trading and people placing morning market orders.
In any case, still stands.
I was running around with clients all day, but would of been a good opportunity to short it as I mentioned before.
It should close below $9.40 today.