American Outdoor Brands Corp (AOUT)

[maksim]

I meant getting ahead that this thing is ready to rock. =)

People fall in love with the stock and fail to accept that there can be bad news, or it may not be the time.

If you are doing proper due diligence, you must give much more research to potential shortcomings. Anyone can find a reason why the stock can go up.... (ie look at fortune tellers and horoscopes).

Right now I am effectively a short holder of SWHC, as I own PUTS. As long as it goes below $9 a share sometime before March, I am ok. I am confident that it will break apart by then. However on a daily basis I look at the risks to the upside.

What gets me... as someone who invests for a living, and advises others, is how people on this forum, and tons of others... confuse investing and trading.

You cannot justify your long term holding with some short term techinical pop or what not of an hour period of time etc. Same thing if you are short.

Those things only matter if you are trading. At which point, it does not matter what the company does, only how the stock trades.

If I was trading this one... it is a pretty good stock to trade. It pops in the morning, like clockwork, then sells off.

Ok, I am rambling on.

In any case...just do your homework.... constantly.

Keep in mind... the picture was this rosy a year ago when the stock was $3 a share. So ask yourself, is the picture and the company 3 times better now? I don't believe so personally, at least they ought to prove it.

There is just tooo much risk to hold this as part of your overall portfolio anymore than say 5% of your investments.... not at this price.