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The conversation on ihub appears to me to be driven often by those with less knowledge - though I concede that management is largely responsible for the knowledge void that forces even well meaning investors to guess.
I remain optimistic about s3d going forward. I will also suggest that with some well placed effort more can be known about what is going on than the current ihub conversation suggests.
2016 is a critical year for spiffy.
Agreed.
Yes. I am not guessing.
Even for those who bought in at $10 per share the company only needs a market cap of 500 mil for investors' risk to be marginalized... that will soon be a p/s of 6:1 or less... spiffy is currently priced as if it were a dieing storage company... the EK legacy if you will... once it becomes clear that this is a cloud software enterprise a 6:1 p/s will be a no brainer... that process is already underway as early adopters are kicking the tires on glassware... jmo... glta...
Makes sense.
I am personally looking to q2... I believe EK's misguided guidance was about 6 months off... adoption takes time... and the delay was in the neighborhood of 6 months... also I have reason to believe EK's role is already diminished... there is less wrong with this company than most realize... imo... and steps are already being taken to correct what is wrong... that last financing was an eye opener for some powers that be... it did not go unnoticed nor will it be ignored... jmo... glta...
The most knowledgeable posters have left ihub. Great discussions taking places elsewhere. There is plenty good on the horizon. It has just taken a bit longer than anyone thought it would.
An excellent post... thanks... paradigm shifts are by their very nature difficult for many to see and understand...
Great list... thanks...
"MSFT was at the forefront of containerization dvlpt and had a R&D brain trust working on it 7-10 yrs ago but they were ahead of their time and black-boxed it as it took resources away from something else they were launching. I'll ask my friends if I see them over Xmas to expand on whatever I wrote on the topic with pete."
Very interesting. I would be glad to hear whatever you find out. It does suggest that in some ways the ground was already prepared at Microsoft for what they saw when they vetted glassware...
"What are the chances old group having accomplished whatever they did at MSFT were the ones called upon to review Glassware etc. for Azure? Pretty good my friends think."
This is intriguing... I don't know the answer to your question... what I will say with total confidence is that Microsoft engineers were beyond impressed with glassware when they vetted it... I understand that some posters are working from the premise that glassware is just one more of thousands and thousands of offerings on Azure... and that it is relatively easy to get an offering on Azure... to each their own I say, but imo this shows a significant lack of understanding or knowledge regarding what happened in 2015 and what it took to get glassware on Azure and what glassware means to Microsoft... Microsoft having worked on this very task for 7-10 years as you suggest was initially perplexed that S3D had come up with such an efficient solution to a seemingly intractable problem...
"It's all about Azure and MSFT will do whatever it takes to build market share asap."
Spot on...
"On another note, can't help but wonder though what happened to all the wonderful things Overland Merger was supposed to bring to the table. EK and his 16,000 whatever they were supposed to be."
The Overland merger will also begin to payoff in 2016 as storage solutions are monetized utilizing glassware (think Nutanix). The merger of 4 into 1 cost the company 2014. Putting snap and glassware on Azure cost the company 2015. It is for these reasons that we are basically 2 years behind regarding the monetization process. A very big bet was placed on these two elements moving forward. 2016 is when we find out whether or not these were good bets... imo...
Regarding EK... he made two huge mistakes in 2015... he provided guidance that he could not back up and he did so against his own legal counsel... and he bungled the recent financing very, very badly... his mistakes have not gone unnoticed... I would not assume a dearth of corrective action regarding the CEO...
Regarding the Overland resellers/channels of 16,000+... let's keep it real.... while Overland was in decline for years these channels were neglected... they will need to be rebuilt... I think it is safe to say some will never be rebuilt... while others will be revived as new product comes along to solve customer problems... Stony Hall is rebuilding the channels starting with North America... it will build from there... how many of them can be reclaimed... I have no idea... but until now they really haven't had much of anything exciting to sell anyway... now that the glassware platform has been built and is available in hybrid form it is a new day for some of these resellers... but it will most certainly take awhile... jmo... glta...
Excellent! Thanks.
The sudden shift in plans had a massive impact on s3d monetization plans. Virtually everything not msft ground to a halt as msft consumed the vast majority of s3d resources. The wisdom or folly of this all in strategy will be revealed in 2016, but the simple reality is none of us could have foreseen the Titanic shift in s3d marketing strategy in December of 2014...
If we want to start dredging up old posts from back then we will find that many of us were wrong regarding 2014 - myself included...
That is, we were wrong on timing... we were not wrong on the rest of it.... I am confident of that heading into 2016... Merry Christmas to all and a Happy New Year!
This shift in plans and fast tracking are notably unusual in a large bureaucracy... add to that the road shows, msft presence at Nasdaq event, msft partners conference and so on and you have something extraordinary imo...
Why?
Because the inclusion of s3d ip in Azure serves msft's self-interest or so at least someone with power and influence inside Microsoft believes... and that individual or group was/is willing to expend personal capital in the effort...
Msft will not market glassware for the purpose of benefiting s3d... msft will vigorously market glassware to take market share for Azure... imo...
It is difficult to overstate just how unusual msft's behavior regarding s3d was in 2015.... extraordinarily unusual... msft is a huge bureaucracy... I work in a large bureaucracy and provide consultant services in another. Such entities have layers of planning, review, oversight, approval, etc... even exceptionally good ideas require months sometimes years to implement. Someone with significant power at msft fast tracked the addition of Snap and Glassware to Azure after 2015 plans were finalized eoy 2014...
At the end of 2014 s3d and msft both had monetization plans for 2015... as most all companies do... early in 2015 those plans were dramatically alerted for s3d... msft engineers looked at s3d technology and were impressed... this change in plans impacted Microsoft as one important piece of many hundreds of important pieces in their development of their new cloud first mobile strategy. It impacted their monetization plans hardly at all in 2015, though it will begin to impact them in 2016 and beyond... and it's biggest impact for msft will be in gaining market share for Azure... imo...
"Our day will come because the tech is on point. The rest is just noise until the traction takes hold."
Precisely.
Thanks for this link... I've stopped watching day to day pps movement. Too painful and distracting. But I remain fully invested and extremely confident that spiffy is right place, right time. I am excited about 2016 and 2017. The monetization of glassware has only just begun...
I wouldn't make too much of it nor would I make too little of it... today an obscure ups site kicked the tires on glassware... there will be a lot of tire kicking in 2016 by early adopters....
There's a reason hugo left. Short covering has begun. Some covered sooner. It doesn't mean we have seen the last of the shorts and their manipulation, but the tide is about to turn and the shorts know it. We've a long way to go from here. But we are almost through the darkest part of the journey... jmo... glta...
Simon Bramfitt asked MSFT why S3d? Answer because they can do things we cannot. Then Simon joined the team. Might not want to forget that either. Msft will market glassware aggressively in 2016. They will use it to gain market share for Azure... jmo... glta...
It is easy to forget that Stony Hall is oar of the s3d team. One should not forget that. Stony now has a completed platform to market. I suspect he is looking forward to the new year.
Outstanding post! Thanks.
There will be many test drives taken in 2016.
Tax loss selling is almost over. What an excruciating year for the stock. And yet s3d managed to get both snap and gw on Azure in a single year. A rather remarkable feat in my opinion. The platform is built and it is very good. And the timing is excellent. S3d needs to capitalize on first mover advantage in 2016... Q2 2016 is one to watch... imo...
Yes. The review of glassware by early adopters has begun. This is very good news.
It takes time. I will be looking to q2'16 myself... but to each their own guidance...
Actually Microsoft is going to use GW to take market share for Azure.
This is not the only trial/pilot happening in 2016...
Imo... this is an outstanding post... thank you.
UPS is kicking the tires... taking it for a test drive... going to be a lot of that going on in 2016... if glassware works, and it does, then these tire kickers will become customers.
Yes. It works. Yes. It fills a niche. Yes it brings remarkable efficiency advantages to the market place in terms of pricing, scalability and simplicity.
The move down has been difficult to tolerate and has many factors... shorts, withdrawn guidance, macro environment, mishandled financing, a coordinated social media misinformation campaign, delays in the build out of the platform and so on... and this time of year tax loss selling... the close of the year is generally brutal for pre-monetized or early monetizing nanocap stocks... we are at or near the bottom... this week in fact may be the worst... next week the holiday season begins and then a brand new year in 2016... I can't begin to tell you how excited I am about this little company heading into 2016... the revenue ramp will finally begin... perhaps a bit slowly at first and gain momentum along the way...
2015 was the year of Docker in the containerization space... Docker is such a household name in the tech world now that few can remember only a short time ago it was virtually unknown except for the early adopters that had begun to make use of it... the same thing is about to happen with Glassware... it will take time of course... but the process has already begun... jmo... glta...
"Growing a business takes time. Yes, they made some mistakes. Most young companies do."
Thanks for your post... agreed... all who need to sell will of course sell... but those who have what it takes to invest in a business rather than a stock will be pleased with the unfolding of 2016... when this story gets told in future business schools... 2014 will be remembered as the year of the merger for ANY rolling four companies into one... 2015 will be remember as the year of scaling the platform... the platform is now complete... bugs will be worked out in the weeks ahead as they always are with software... improvements will be ongoing... as badly as the stock has performed in 2015 and admittedly it has been monumentally bad... the business has developed with an equally remarkable flair in the other direction... at this time last year how many of us could have guessed that a mere one year later Spiffy would have two offerings on Azure... the list of managements accomplishments have been excellent... so I can forgive them their mistakes... so my advice would be take a breath... enjoy the holiday season and know that 2016 really begins the year of glassware... jmo... glta...
perhaps even worse than a lump of coal...
You are absolutely correct. He is putting himself in legal jeopardy. He is also being profoundly disingenuous. Glassware works... it really is that simple... and the platform was only just completed... it has very significant efficiency advantages in terms of pricing, scalability and simplicity... those who say otherwise are either misinformed or disingenuous... it is unlikely MK is misinformed...
That is not the kind of employee I am nor the kind of employee I'd hire... but maybe that's just me... jmo... glta...
With every tweet he lessens his employment options... imo... wonder if he knows that... or maybe his tweets are part of his present employment?
And MK said all was well not long ago. I assure you the essence of GW has not changed in the time that passed between MK's stellar defense of GW to his new found disdain for it.
"Get money when you don't need it"
Exactly.
Tragically streaming we are so darn unappreciative of these do gooders... we are a sorry bunch of headstrong fools... or not... let's see what tomorrow brings...
I don't really give management much of a pass on the financing. Why were they dealing with these yahoo's in the first place. Financing should have been done last spring long before money was needed. When you announce a shelf months in advance and let your funds run low the sharks smell blood in the water... having said that there is a lot more to this investment than a bungled financing... pretty certain those other entities jermy mentioned were not part of Microsoft's 200 member cloud alliance... that alone might give one pause... and of course there is much more... jmo... glta...