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No I dont think BP was threatened by KITE and JUNO, for the exact reason I stated. Neither has manufacturing capaibilities, so unless they are able to come up with $100M to buy, build, and scale up their own manufacturing capabilities, they NEED to partner with Big Pharma, hence why both were bought out!
NWBO is planning on using Cognate/King's Colleg/Franhofer to ramp up initial manufacturing, and then building their own manufacturing facility in Cambridge. Hence why would they sell to Big Pharma, or if they did, they would most likely be priced out at a much higher amount that $10B.
How does that not make sense?
KITE and JUNO were both $10B market caps and less far along then NWBO. IMUC has a negative phase 2 which justified its fall, but NWBO has really had no smoking guns or bad news yet dropped from$12 to $0.15 a share. And each of those drops show huge sell volumes. I have never seen any stocks drop that much solely on heresy blogger opinion pieces.
So no, not the same in my eyes at least.
Read Larry Smith’s article on the wolf pack and the naked shorting. Money was made I am sure when the price was up in the $3 - $12 range, but not much at this $0.20 level.
I believe this is funded by Big Pharma as they know that if NWBO is successful, they could readily be a disrupted to the pharmaceutical industry. NWBO isn’t willing to sell, as the connections to manufacture themselves, and is therefore a threat. Remember, BP has billions upon billions of dollars to invest, buy companies, technologies, so spending $100 million to short put a potential small pharmaceutical threat is pennies to them.
The shorts like to try and hammer the price near the end of the day to see it fall, and stay red. Looks like they keep hammering the price. Look at the share price with volume levels at the bottom. Every sharp drop has a volume attached to it. That shows you how the shorts have a concerted effort to try and drop the price. What I like is that the price keeps inching its way back up slowly every time, which is showing that there is some wall street demand growing for NWBO.
If Wall Street interest keeps increasing interest in NWBO and we stay at ~5 million daily volume or more, the shorts could dig themselves into a hole.
Granted I am sure they are naked and may never need to cover.
No, I am saying that shorts will be called in if the price goes too high.
Wolfpack trying to pressure share price down. Wont allow it to go over 0.30 cents a share. I suspect that many calls are somewhere north of $0.30 so if it were to hit $0.31 or higher, could short squeeze the share price.
Slowly NWBO is getting more and more of Wall Streets' attention. Volume is up, as well as share price. Duffy news provides NWBO with more legitimacy. The Wolf Pack, BP, & AF have all tried to target NWBO's lack of legitimacy, by creating questions, concerns, and a shroud of suspicion around NWBO. Nice to see Innes and now Duffy on the team slowly picking away at that.
Would love to see some proof of this. Highly doubt Woodford would sell any shares for pennies on the dollar, rather than wait out the P3 results.
NOT $20 a share. If DCVax-L has positive results, why would the share price only go up to a market cap of ~$14B??? JUNO was purchased for $10B without any positive data. I could see it moving closer to $30 to $50 a share, albeit, with a jump up and then subsequent fall back down to reality, so maybe ~$50 a share high point (~$35B Market Cap), and then a sell off over the next couple days or weeks, down to $30 a share (~$21B Market Cap).
But what do I know? LOL
For a moment I actually did think it was halted for some reason. It must be that there isnt much volume out there to trade, except for the naked shorts that big pharma is using to keep the share price depressed.
Hopefully there is a halt here soon with some News pending.
Isnt there a conference soon here or that just passed that Linda is/was presenting at?
Are other shareholders getting phone call regarding their proxy vote for the upcoming AGM?
We received a call asking us for our votes for the upcoming meeting. This has never happened before. I find it very weird, but also NWBO has to be paying for this, as it isn't free. And I am wondering why????? Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.....
No it isn't off. I adjusted DCVax-L's blinded data to starting at randomization as well as Optune's blinded data.
From randomization. As you can see the mOS is at ~ 20 months for DCVax-L. The interim analysis stated 23.1 months from surgery.
AND NO IT ISNT OFF!
Graphed blinded DCVax-L vs Blinded Optune P3 results. I was going to write an article in SA but too busy so thought I would send this out via twitter. Oh, and this is from 2017 interim analysis, so really, the blinded data taken today, would be even more shifted greater particularly in the tail!!
Graphed DCVax-L Blinded data vs. Optune’s P3 Blinded Trial data. And this was from 2017 Interim Analyis. #nwbo #dcvax #hope pic.twitter.com/INzu0J54Tp
— Bo Miha (@bohsie) November 7, 2018
With positive Phase 3, NWBO has ability to begin a significant amount of production through Cognate, King/s College, and Fraunhofer (sp?). So I would think they would begin accumulating revenue on production of at least 300 per year, with the ability to quickly move up to 1000 per year immediately. And then they would be able to scale up on a modular basis to ~ 5000 per year. And that is only Cognate. So in one year, they would be able to get revenues (assuming highend $150K per year treatment at the beginning) of: 1000 x $150K = $150M. You can do a lot with that type of revenue. So suffice to say, their stock would rise up enough to allow them to either sell some stock, or they would be able to get some quick loans with that kind of revenue potential.
Yes, $100K if L is approved. $1M or $10M if Direct was approved as well. But that would be a long time out. And dependent on little dilution from now until then.
It's a risk, as are all stocks, but it could have a substantial payoff.
3 x DCVax-L Sales. However with DCVax Direct in the pipeline, and a positive P3 trial, the outlook will drive a market cap to 3 times sales. Stocks are all future sentiment. And as I explained with CGC, their current evaluation is over 100 times sales, because the future potential for CGC in the Cannabis market is >$10B.
I graphed both the DCVax-L blinded results (which were provided from the paper in April 2018), with the Optune blinded results.
For the Optune results, I was able to graphically take both populations, convert them into two datasets, and then add them together, and graph them as one "blinded" result. You cannot just average them as there were 2 to 1 (similar to DCVax-L Trial). Now of course there will be some precision errors in converting them, but even taking 20% adjustments, the Optune results are significantly less than that of DCVac-L.
Here are some numbers from that:
At 1 Year
Optune: 70% OS
DCVax-L: 78%
At 15 months
Optune: 60% OS
DCVax-L: 67%
mOS of Blinded Optune P3 Trial = 19 months
mOS of DCVax-L P3 Trial = 20.1 months (and growing since data from this has only matured more)
Now 1 month difference in blinded results is significant!!
At 30 months:
Optune Blinded: 27% @ 30 months
DCVax-L Blinded: 33% @ 30 months
$50 Billion NWBO Valuation with Positive P3 Results
So let's look at the number of annual GBM occurrences. ~ 12,000 to 14,000 per year in the US alone. And the same number in Western Europe. So let' say 14,000 + 14,000 which would include Canada and other European and Scandanavian countries to be conservative. That's 28,000, and say NWBO only treats half of the market, that's 14,000 at ~$120,000 a treatment, provides $1.7 Billion in revenue with potential to move up to double that or more for the entire work. That alone would command a market cap of $10 Billion. However, with the potential of DCVax Direct now actually having a positive outlook on it, the potential for Direct would be over 10 times that of GBM, a rare and horrible disease. So now the future potential evaluation of NWBO is actually $2 Billion + >$20 Billion. Meaning a market cap of $20 Billion to $100 Billion.
The fact that Canopy (CGC), a Canadian cannabis company has a current evaluation of > $10B market cap, with < $10M in profits, shows there is huge future potential, and that investors will valuate a stock closer to that potential. Meaning with positive news, NWBO has the potential to jump > $20B market cap, and probably, more likely to eventually push into $50 Billion mark at ~$100 a share or more. Even half of that at $50/sh would be a bargain with positive P3 results.
With that potential, its worth losing it all!!!
you dont make sense. If PIII results are positive, the vaccine is legitamized. Everything NWBO becomes legitimized. The whole strategy of the shorts is to have everyone believe it is a farce. HOwever, the blinded results from DCVax is BETTER than the blinded results of the Optune P3 trial. NOW THAT SAYS A LOT! AND THAT IS A FACT!!
Wrong, if results are positive it wont be 2 cents, and if it is negative, it will be 0 cents. It all depends on the trial, it is a boom or bust investment. It's like flipping a coin, literally, and you either lose your $10,000 or you have the potential to be a millionaire! Literally, because ~50% of all Phase 3 trials succeed to be an approved product.
https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/Clinical%20Development%20Success%20Rates%202006-2015%20-%20BIO,%20Biomedtracker,%20Amplion%202016.pdf
AND the longer the trial runs, statistically, the more likely it will succeed!
No buyout - Lets get this straight. At this point, there will not be a buyout. If there is a buyout, then the trial will have been negative. NWBO is so close to the end of its P3 trial that there is no chance for a buyout. And if the results are positive, then any type of buyout would be $10B or higher (AND with positive results it would be much much higher than $10B), marking the share cost at greater than $20 per share.
PFS results are actually outstanding; read article
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4101584-northwest-biotherapeutics-statistically-satisfying?referrer=https://www.google.com/
Read the article. From the data provided, there is very little chance that the PFS endpoints were not successful. If anything the PFS results are more likely to have easily bettered SOC results than OS, due to the crossover.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4101584-northwest-biotherapeutics-statistically-satisfying?referrer=https://www.google.com/
Or do both! Take the vaccine and wear the helmet!
BREAK THROUGH CALC - ~19 months mOs of Optune vs. ~20 months mOS of DCVax-L
So I have been enjoying the summer, and hadn't gotten a chance to crunch the Blinded data, but alas, I did some number crunching and may even have to come out with a third article.
The only way to compare the blinded data is apples to apples, thus I took the Optune Phase 3 data and dissected it to determine the overall blinded mOS of that trial. As that trial was also 2 to 1, it would provide a good insight to the DCVax-L trial. That said, using graphical analysis and interpolations (and yes there is probably a 5 to 10% error), the findings are quite interesting:
mOS Optune would be when 348 patients passed away. From my calculations, the mOS of 345 patients is at 19 months, therefore the mOS of the Overall Blinded Optune study would be just over the 19 months, and well below 19.5 months which would show 333 overall patients alive.
DCVac-L showed 20 months from randomization (assuming 3.1 months on average from surgery to randomization.
Now 1 month may not seem like a lot, but in a 2 - 1 study, when there is a crossover, this could actually be quite significant. For example Optune's mOS is nearly 21 months, and since it is also 2 to 1, add in the same ~2 month change, and DCVax-L could actually be closer to 22 months mOS.
Will crunch a couple other scenarios as well know that I have Optune's Blinded Data set!
Shows you how long an article takes to be published. It was submitted Oct 2017, and released June 2018. So maybe L Powers isn't lying about this kind of stuff. Its just the nature of the industry.
Exactly!! That is what I was saying. The 108 that are below the 233 that had surgery atleast 30 months prior to the analysis are still able to move the mOS of the OVERALL population up.
One must also understand that the 23.1 (or ~20.1) mOS is the OVERALL population. I believe that it is obvious from the overall 23.1 mOS (which is still not full mature data), that there is some type of efficacy. That said, the mOS of the vaccinated group could be as high as 2 months greater.
I am estimating that the mOS of the placebo group will be in the vicinity of 17.5 - 18 months, while DCVax will be in the 22 - 23 months (from randomization).
Look at Optune's P3 trial results (also a 2 to 1 ratio). If you took the mOS of both the treated and placebo populations from Optune, the mOS would be between 16 to 20.9 months. From the OS graph, between 16 - 20 months the slope for both groups are pretty much the same, so one could even argue that a strong estimate for the overall mOS of the Optune trial would be ~18.5 months. DCVax-L is 20.1 months. Now 2 months difference for the overall mOS is huge.
I would be extremely confident from this information that the DCVax-L group's mOS will be > 21 months.
" Thus it pencils in 30% of then live over 30 months. That is how the estimated 23.1 months is calculated. "
FALSE!! The KM curve uses ticks for the patients that are still alive when the analysis is taken, as shown on the KM curve. They are censored, so no they do not make assumptions that 30% of the ones still alive will live until 30 months!
WOW!!!
I am excited about these results. I wish they would have provided information regarding the PFS results, as I believe that these are going to be significant.
I think that NWBO had to vet this analysis very well and precisely, or naysayers like Exwannabe and AF would be shouting that they damaged the results by providing too much information prior to unblinding.
Also, it is apparent that someone with deep pockets (Big Pharma, ahem!) is trying to reduce the positive effects to the share price. Yesterday after the price jumped to $0.32 a share, a sell volume of 100K shares pushed the price back down to $0.28 cents. I believe that what you will see is a slow push up of price day over day, and either BP will continue to short themselves but slowly the price will continue to rise. Too many on wall street will begin to see the opportunity here.
Even more so this means the potential for the mOS of 23.1 (from surgery) will increase. Couple that with the unblinding, my statistical intuition is that the mOS of the vaccinated group will be ~ 24 - 25 months.
If you review my last article and many of my comments underneath, I suggested that the overall mOS would most likely be 20 - 23 months.
EXWANNABE, LOOK AT THE MATH AND THE STATISTICS AVAILABLE:
233 patients were > 27 months since randomization at the time of the analysis (~ a year ago), THAT MEANS, 108 patients had their first injection < 27 months prior.
We also know that 67 of the 233 patients has an OS > 30 months. That is ~30% of the 233 patients living 30 months or longer (or still alive). THAT DOESNT INCLUDE THE 108!!! Because none of the 108 would have even had their first injection 30 months prior to the analysis.
So if you assume the same 30% of the 108 will live 30 months or longer, that is ~ 32 more patients. Now we don't know what side of the 23.1 months those patients were at when the analysis took place, however, for the mOS of 23.1 months to decrease, ALL THOSE patients would have to been greater than the 23.1 month median and the rest would have to NOT make 23.1 months. THAT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE LAST 100 PATIENTS WOULD HAVE BARELY REACHED 20 MONTHS FROM THEIR SURGERY BY THE TIME OF THE ANALYSIS!!!
Its simple math and statistics. I will put out an article using graphs to show how SIGNIFICANT these results actually are!
You cannot quantify how much the median will change, and again, that's the OVERALL POPULATION MEDIAN we are speaking about. When you unblind and split it up into two populations, either there is no change, and everyone is ~ mOS of 20.1 months or vaccinated group is > 20.1 months and placebo is < 20.1 months. So statiscally, the fact that the mOS overall is nearly 4 - 5 months greater than typical SOC medians, this means the vaccinated group mOS will be closer to 24 - 25 months (from randomization)
GOOD TRY EXWANNABE!!
Okay lets do some quick math!
50 patients at 40.5 (15%) HOWEVER THIS DOESNT INCLUDE ALL THE PATENTS THAT COULD MAKE IT TO 40 MONTHS! WHY? Because of this statement:
" As of this analysis, 223 patients are?≥?30 months past their surgery date; 67 of these (30.0%) have lived?≥?30 month"
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? IT MEANS: That means that 108 patients had surgery < 30 months as of the time of this analysis.
So that means that 1/3 of the population may have increased the median if the analysis , as well as the 40.5 months. It also means that this analysis was taken in the summer of 2017 when close to 1/3 of the patients were < 27 months from randomization.
What this means is that if they are doing an interim analysis right away here (which the article states), then this median value may be even higher than 23 months from surgery.
Not sure what you are trying to show?
This MGMT median was 26.3 months, while the DCVax-L overall MGMT median was over 34 months.
My original calculations I estimated that the median would need to be 23 months or greater, and that makes sense, Also, the fact that ~30% is greater than 40 months is another big marker. Optune showed ~22% at 40 months while the SOC was ~10% at that same OS value.
Anytime. My article is linked below:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4101584-northwest-biotherapeutics-statistically-satisfying
It should have all the data for the PFS component that I used. I also talk a bit about OS as well.
Yes, this is similar to the calculation I did in my seeking alpha article several months back. However I focused on PFS which showed even more convincing results.
The only comment I have is on your discussion of NWBO waiting longer. In your examples the p value doesn't change the longer you wait, however, the difference in your examples and the P3 trial is that the p value will not be calculated on SOC data, it will be calculated comparing the 331 patients, meaning the SOC data will be the 110 placebo patients vs ~221 vaccinated patients. You recalculate the p value using your assumed results and 110 SOC patients, and the p value falls down dramatically.
Moreover, because it is a cross over, if DCVax-L actually does work, then the 110 patients will perform better than SOC, meaning that will drop the p value even further, SO, it goes without saying (if you are well versed in Statistics), that in this case, the longer the data is matured, the more chance the p-value will drop, meaning the fatter and longer the tail of the 221 patients compared to the 110 patients, the smaller the p value will be.
Hence, why Linda and NWBO is pushing this as long as possible.
I my mind, I have no doubt the PFS endpoint has been met, and is statistically significant, however the OS endpoint may not be as strong statistically if the patients that crossed over are living longer as well.
Not going to go into too much of an argument (and no caps locks), but for NWBO to build a certified manufacturing facility like cognates, keep people employed, get all the certifications, cGMP standards, and have the manufacturing equipment, and facility for 400 some vaccines, the share count currently would have been in the billions (much more dilution), and they would have been bleeding money year after year.
So not sure how they would have gotten their own Cognate for the amount that they paid Cognate, primarily in shares/warrants that aren't worth anything yet.
Sorry if my caps locks sounds like I am yelling. I try and use it to highlight certain points.