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This "work around" never sees the light of day. From a risk/reward analysis it is not favorable. Testimony at trial already indicated no work around is possible unless they completely change the process. Why would you tweak something that generates billions in revenues every quarter? This is posturing to delay the ruling which they fear is coming. It will be interesting to hear Vringo's version of the events.
there is no way to argue they are not infringing. A jury decided they are and since they have continued to use the patent in question there is an argument for willful infringement post verdict.
Collective prayer is very important in these matters in my view so may God give those in need the strength to persevere and deal with the pain in their lives now. Amen
Give us something to talk about....
I agree you can only see it in the 8k ...
If they agree that they are infringing the Nokia patents in France then settlement talks would involve the UK. You can't say we are doing it here and not there. The patents in France being asserted are also asserted in one of the UK lawsuits but not Germany, which involve other patents.
If Vringo makes the cut as Credit Suisse thinks they may it should move more institutional money in here. BY July this could be an entirely different company. It could have mainly institutional support, short position significantly lower and far higher expectations going forward.
Your welcome, it is a good link to understand what the Judge is considering right now. Most likely the rr rate will be higher when he rules.
Beginning on April 15, 2013 (today), Vringo will be participating in non-deal investor road show meetings in Zurich, London, Tel Aviv, Boston, Minneapolis, New York City and other cities.
non-deal financial road show definition FYI:
A financial road show is a series of meetings across different cities in which top executives from a company have the opportunity to talk with current or potential investors. They can range from two or three days in one country or continent to marathon, three week trips to financial centers around the world. The most common reason for conducting financial road shows is an initial public offerings IPO, in which a privately held company’s shares go public and investors have an opportunity to buy into it. Another reason for road shows is privatization of a government-owned corporation, similar to a private company going public, in which a company seeks investors to buy new stock it is issuing to raise money. Finally, a non-deal road show is purely so that executives can hold discussions with current and potential investors, and nothing is offered for sale.
Also included in this article is this important footnote:
In one case the district court held that the payment of sunset damages could not be stayed by posting a supersedeus bond under Fed.R.Civ.P. 62(d). 81
I thought it was an excellent primer on what the Judge will use for his analysis on the rr question. I too thought the conclusion and methodology is very important but the whole article is a must read IMHO..
Credit goes to @Snoooop40 on Stocktwits for finding this.
CHP
The standard for post trial rr rates is called a modified Georgia-Pacific analysis.
One approach, probably the more prevalent approach, is represented by Judge Folsom’s widely followed decision in Paice.
These courts, following the Supreme Court dicta in Adamo, conclude the post-verdict period is fundamentally different from the pre-judgment royalty rate because of the change circumstances of the parties. These courts attempt to divine an
ongoing royalty rate independent of the jury’s verdict, perhaps by applying a modified set of
Georgia-Pacific factors or by evaluating the changed economic positions of the parties based on the factors listed in Adamo. However, the jury's verdict remains a useful guidepost in the analysis in most of useful guidepost these cases and few cases dismiss the jury verdict entirely or treat it as a “false premise.”
I am very confident that the rr rate will be higher that 3.5%.. if you read this document is concludes with this comment:
Courts have struggled articulating how “changed circumstances” should result in enhancement of post-verdict awards, though there is broad consensus that, absent unusual circumstances, the ongoing royalty rate will be higher than the rate implicitly awarded by the jury
it's the pressure of VRNG adding an average of 865,000 new outstanding shares every trading week for the last 7 months.
Well you quoted today's price and also said not to look at conspiracy theories till April 26. This is not a conspiracy theory BTW I have watched this get beaten down virtually every day except for news days since OCT/NOV when the large short position was established. Anyone who watches trading daily can verify this.
thanks for your clairvoyance, $3.20 is it till April 26, I will mark that in my calendar, thanks.
Probably not assuming the short position is unwound to a more moderate level.
NO planned sales don't kick in till $4.25
Since this is not a day trading stock what are these late day dumps about in your mind?
Since this is not a day trading stock what are these late day dumps about in your mind?
This article was written by Philly phinest on Stock Twits. He argues with everyone there and his points only demonstrate his bias. He apportions not one second to the possibility his analysis is wrong. There is no balance to his review. He owned Vringo a while ago and hasn't owned it since but he likes to comment on it a lot? His thesis is the short thesis and he makes all the arguments that Google made in the post-trial motions yet never accepts anything that the Vringo lawyers presented. Draw your own conclusion on the value of his work.
Yes this is my point, not hard to do with shares trading under a million shares a day. This is why you see them lose control when it trades 5 million plus.
Who said it was the same account. In a group situation the people buying long would hold no short positions. Also yo can set up multiple accounts with different brokers to accomplish the same thing. I used to trade Vancouver Stocks and know some promoters who told me some of the tricks used.
Ok let take this one point at a time:
Those who own the ~16M short positions (or at least own a decent chunk of it) have hedged their positions by acquiring long positions in the common stock as well. Or they have always been long but decided to also short it once the laches and jury debacle hit the news.
Either way, the point is that they now hold both long and short positions, correct? If so, then what you are alluding to is that to protect their short positions, they are strategically dumping just enough of their long shares whenever they see large bids in order to suppress any buying pressure that may build up?
So, under your theory, whenever the sp dips (or even when the sp is stagnant), it is these same shorts who are buying up the shares being sold by frustrated longs, day traders, whoever, to "re-load" their long positions in order to keep repeating the above scenario?
If so, it seems that you are suggesting that they are willing to sacrifice potential gains on their long positions (by dumping shares when they see large bids) simply to protect their short positions?
What kind of manipulation, easy ... stock moves up two cents sell immediately knocked it down 3, moves up one sell immediately push it dow 2. This creates a stir step pattern, look at a 5/10/15 minute chart you will see it. On a daily you will see a cluster of trading around $3.20 for months with some moves up and down but that seem to be a level of support longer-term. Who is behind it. The owners of the 16 million shares, hedge funds and groups that are short and some individuals. They don't always win as I mentioned. I witnessed a nice roasting on Acadia today just beautiful.
Here is an example of a recent poster who recommended shorting Vringo filled with inaccurate information.
Short Vringo... Again?
By Ashraf Eassa
March 18, 2013
Share This:
I recently made the call to short shares of Vringo (VRNG) above the $4 mark. Well, I was right, and shortly after inching above the $4 mark, the stock immediately cratered, and now trades at just a hair under $3.00. My short sale recommendation was simple - whenever the stock got to $4 or above, the insiders would start unloading the shares as though they were toxic. When insiders of a speculative, patent-troll play start offloading the merchandise ahead of what the speculators claim could be a huge price increase, I generally take that to be a pretty strong "sell" signal.
Recent Insider Action
That being said, as I take a look at recent insider transactions, while I still see some insiders fleeing the ship at the $3.22 level (is it any surprise that the market won't pay more than that right now?).
How do shorts "hold" any shares of a stock (let alone millions)? Isn't the basic premise of shorting such that shorts open their short position by borrowing stock to sell at the current sp, and they are betting that the sp will go down, at which time they will purchase shares on the open market to return to the party from whom they borrowed originally?
Evidence of manipulation :
The circles represent last trades for the last four days , 100,000 100,000 , 110,000 and 80,000 shares sold all at the end of the day. Do you really believe someone conveniently wanted to sell end of day every day? This goes on more often than not. How much more blatant does it have to be?
Never mind the hammer gang showed up with massive sell orders to squelch any rally as usual. Some believe the fantasy that this stock is not manipulated but that's ridiculous.
Big bids showing up now something is up here
Vrng starting to catch a bit of a bid here no idea why but it is heading in the right direction
Appreciate your thoughts Red. I just wanted to point out that Dr. Becker believes the minimum rr should be 5%
I/P Engine argued that the Court should conclude that an upward adjustment to a 5% running royalty rate for Defendants' ongoing post-judgment infringement is appropriate. I/P Engine's damages expert, Dr. Stephen Becker, also reached the conclusion that there is no reason to depart downward from the 5% royalty rate because the patents are known to be valid and the patented technology is acknowledged to be "mission critical" for Google.
Comments on Vringo short Position
Earlier this week we had a discussion on the short position now nearly 16 million. I mentioned that shorts do not have magical information, they are just as greedy if not more so than longs who do not take profits on big runs. This week there have been a few examples of shorts slaughtered by their greed. First Solar the other day and today Acadia Pharmaceutical I stock thankfully I own. The short position on the last report for ACAD increased incredibly by 500,000 to the highest level in a year over 5.3 million. This morning the company received notice from the FDA on fast tracking their Parkinson's drug, stock up nearly 50% at one point. It will be another burn the shorts day over there. This was not a mystery that the FDA approval could happen as the results for PDP were spectacular but the shorts greed has left them with a mess. I mention this again to not get discouraged by the short level.
Cheers
The other day we went the entire pre-market without a single trade. I don't remember a situation like that either.
I agree with you Spiderman in terms of why Vringo is where it is. All I am saying is news can't be predicted, neither can timing. The MSFT news came out of the blue for most that is why it went up quickly, the Laches ruling came suddenly and drove the stock the other way. Two examples of unexpected news with opposite effect. Just remember that when someone says it will take x time and this and that will happen. There is always an element of uncertainty.
I am familiar with level three data. My point is an event changes the dynamics of a situation. It is the greed of wanting more that prevents them from closing out a position until they are forced to.
Speaking of Hedge funds read this: You will be surprised how reality does not match the myth
Hedge funds have had another lousy year, to cap a disappointing decade
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21568741-hedge-funds-have-had-another-lousy-year-cap-disappointing-decade-going
Good points.
Pigs get slaughtered every day in the markets. Someone who is long and does not take their profits wonders why when the price heads south. Shorts are far more aggressive in this area. Look at the First Solar move today, up 45% why would you not have covered the short in the 20's? Greed and arrogance come to mind. They create a thesis and fall in love with it, not adjusting, when developments change or potential developments change. Really it is human nature greed/fear two powerful emotions.
So does having level 3 data only pertain to Vringo? It sure didn't help them with a few stocks today. See FSLR, SRPT etc. I dont think that data helps when there is an event, it does help keep the stock down or "managed"before that but once they lose control and scramble the game is over Level 3 or not. I was trading Serepta today and a one point it went up a dollar in a minute in a parabolic move. Level 3 didn't help there, same story with First solar, once shorts get behind they scramble to cover which drives the price higher as all the "rats" scurry at the same time. Coming to a theater near you. VRNG v 16 Million shorted shares...
Most people think that shorts have some secret information that allows them to take large bets against a company. The reality is that they are often wrong and there were plenty of examples of that today.
Because those nearly sixteen million shares control the movement of this stock like a puppet on a string. Large short positions are always managed this way until an event pushes them to the side. See the examples I have mentioned already, plus those from the past like BBRY and NFLX