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You'd need a sharp knife to cut the gloom surrounding the storage sector these days, Jan. It seems like the analysts are just standing in line to get their chance to submit downgrades.
http://investor.cnet.com/investor/brokeragecenter/reports-single-company/0-9910-1084-0-NTAP.html?tag...
Strangely enough we may have to have to rely on arch-competitor EMC to stop the bleeding. They report on 4/17, and if they can substantiate their recent claims that they are on track, it could turn the sector.
uf
Glad to see you found your way, Pilgrim.
Here is your reward.
http://www.shibumi.org/eoti.htm
uf
Let's discuss your obsession, Redmond.
uf
>> I wish I could lay off Mr. Ego but I really can't.
It's called a compulsion, and could probably be cured by a competent psychologist.
I'm not looking to start a fight here, since I try to respect the charter of others' forums. How about we step out into the Parking Lot and discuss it?
http://www.investorshub.com/beta/read_msg.asp?message_id=60082
uf
>> The name of the program is Talk To Me.
It must be based on the movie,
or was that "Talk Dirty To Me"?
uf
>> Your statements are exactly why I don’t follow news very closely and also rely almost exclusively on TA for
entry/exit.
It's interesting that while our primary investment styles differ, we have the same attitude towards the news, articles, and analysts' reports that we are bombarded with every day. In fact, Rule #10 of the Gorilla Game is,
Most news has nothing to do with the gorilla game. Learn to ignore it.
So, I could respond to #1207 by changing one letter in your response <gg>:
Your statements are exactly why I don’t follow news very closely and also rely almost exclusively on FA for entry/exit.
uf
Reid, while you're mixing up the ta tea leaves, toss in a smidgeon of WLI for flavor.
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010217/bs/stocks_week_dc_1.html
uf@graspingatstraws.com
Thanks, Dealie. It always pays to have contingency plans.
uf
Thanks for the roses, Larry. It seems both our threads were spared the acrimony that has run rampant on SI during the last 10 months, and it's interesting to note that neither thread needed to change to a moderated format to maintain standards of polite discourse. In the case of G&K, all the credit goes to my egghead threadmates - a mix of senior investors and bright young folks who have combined to keep the conversation focused on technology and the long term.
Please send me a pm on SI as I don't recognize your current screen name.
uf
>> NTAP has the best looking reversal chart of the lot IMO.
Ntap's fundamentals look excellent as well, based on their earnings report and conference call, Reid. They will be coming out with new product announcements tomorrow, which in their language means ready to ship. It's suspected that it will be the eagerly awaited low end product intended for the edge of the network.
uf
Hey, Larry. I'm not familiar with ZStockchat (couldn't find their site), but IH's gui is very comfortable for an old SI'er, plus Matt is on top of everything and has been very accomodating. The only problem is, he has a quick trigger finger and his aim's not all that good <lol>. He was trying to delete a spam-board, and managed to wipe out the ntap thread yesterday. I'm sure he'll repay me someday for the hour it took me to restore the forum; I'll wait until IH enters the t-shirt derby to dun him <gg>.
uf
>> We aren't at the confirmed bottom stage just yet IMO although I never see it until the recovery begins.
You are an honest man, Vendit <gg>.
uf
Seismic imaging is one of ntap's key markets. The following article indicates how essential network storage has become for seismic research.
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2001/01/rauch.htm
Conference Call notes courtesy of Down South:
Feb 8 2001 NTAP CC Notes: 780.3M revenue for first 9 mo of FY. 106% increase YoY. Pro Forma = 118% increase YoY for first 9 mo.
Book/Bill = 1/1
Stronger international business this Q, particularly from Europe.
Gross margin 60.6% fall of 1.3%. Expanded storage offering drove the change. Software mix = 18% of revenue.
R&D = 12.1%, up from 10.9% last Q. Reflects WebManage acquisition.
Pro Forma EPS = $.11/sh. Headcount = 2300, up 300.
DSO = 70 days up from 57 last Q. Parts shortage and uneven demand = 6 days increase. International mix = 3 day increase. 4 days from deferred income from software maint contracts. Will bring back within 2 quarters.
DW: Fiscal 3rd quarter always a challenge. Slower start this January than usual. Bookings and revenues skewed to end of Q. International business up to 40% from 33% last Q. New accounts = 465 down from 500. 38% of bookings from new accounts.
Internet sector down to 34% down from 40% of business. Internet component is now a horizontal market, rather than vertical market. Shipped 600 F840. 15% were upgrades. NetCache = 9% of revenue.
ASP declined due to C1100 low end caching product shipments.
Competitive environment has not changed materially. 80% win rate against all competitors. Center to edge strategy is being accepted. Primary concerns are microeconomic issues.
JA: Expects low end of 10-15% quarter to quarter growth. Expecting 55-60% growth target for FY2002. GM will decline moderately as number of disks in configs expand. Expect $.41/sh for 2001. $.55-.60 for FY2002.
UBS Warburg: Caching win rates. DW: Market demand is for caching and storage. Filers at the center; caching at the edge; software to move it around.
SSB: Overall ASP and decline: JA: ASP decline very moderate. Shift to midrange, but more disk content. TM: Competition caused no new issues. Issue is customer spending programs. Product acceptance is equal or higher than before. Competition is telling customers about NTAP.
ASPs of filers up 10%. ASPs of caching down 10%.
1st Boston: DW: Two was to interpret that vendors are having problems: 1 is that the market is in trouble; the other is that they are getting beat. I believe in the latter. TM: Mentioned big markets, including financials.
Goldman f#@&ing Saks: What gives you confidence about demand and margins? Did you say that bookings and revenues picked up at the end of the month?
DW: Forecast from field gives us confidence, including downward revisions from Nov to Dec. This quarter (Q4) is historically best quarter. Tend to miss on upside, not downside. Competitive environment has not changed. Customers have indicated increased interest in our solutions because of price points. Orders in Jan were skewed to backend. First 10 days after holidays were very slow.
Deutsche Bank AB: Projections for pricing environment. Are competitors dropping prices? TM: EMC sales force does not lead with new product. No more successful than Celerra. They throw NAS in at high discount to Symmetrix sales. NTAP wins because we are better. DW: List price comparison of EMC vs F840 3.6TB EMC is 40% higher than F840.
Prudential: Vertical situation? DW: Big changes in types of internet customers. ASPs were big. Database customers were way up. Wins in financial services. Energy strong. Manufacturing started soft. Semis down. MCAD down. Spotty, but will not stay locked up. Reassessing now on their spending. TM: Listed big energy sales. Many TB configs deployed in the field.
Thomas Partners: Comment on expanding distribution capabilities overseas. Asia is indirect sales model. Europe is 50/50 ISO/DSO. Intent is not to get new partners, but to enhance existing. Storage Networks is helping round out portfolio.
Bear Stearns: Guidance for rev growth implies consistent rate over next year. Why so confident? Issues of receivables in turns? JA: Receivables= ½ due to linearity of shipment. Turns due to expanding worldwide customer service mix and timing of orders near end of quarter. Giving guidance for next two quarters at low end of our goals.
Roberson Stephens: Competition seems to be rolling out new offerings. Is market more competitive? TM: The analysts are more impressed with new offerings than the customers are. Oracle for example. Every competitive environment quickly rules out competitors. DW: In 1600 deals were competitive. Won 80%. TM: Competitors are not leading with NAS. Brought in after NTAP is seen as competitor. Customers have confidence in NTAP's credibility. We do what we say. Competitors are helping us win deals by bringing up our name.
JPM: Talk about new markets. How quickly can you move into new verticals? TM: It is not about new vertical markets. Bigger issue is the ecnomomy. Sales force shifted from dotcom focus into enterprise sales mode for at least 6 months. DW: Think of app horizontals rather than verticals. Oracle platform is across verticals. Target is business apps, rather than verticals. Database is only 25% of business. Next step is to pick up app provider endorsements. SAP, PSFT, etc.
Lehman Bros: Partnership portfolios-further thoughts. TM: Getting real wins with MSFT and ORCL. Professional services are important partners. Will talk more about that later. CSC and PWC are partnering with us.
M/L: Filer/software/netcache percentages and impact of currencies. DW: Caching = 9% Software = 18% OEMs = 4%. Seen shift wrt internet. Basic website and ISP deployments down, but much business in telcos and major ISPs. Moved away from "new age" internet companies. Moved into strong companies like ORCL ASPs and Storage Networks. TM: Every single Y! property is hosted on NTAP. We are not focused on people without money. DW: Mentioned 6 or so major ASPs using NTAP.
"For EMC roadkill, you guys look pretty good."
Thomas Wietzel (sp) Partners: International vs domestic: DW: 40/60. Appears that economic concerns are strictly in US. Asia/Pacific and Europe are confident. TM: Vast majority of deals due to lower cost of ownership. When they spend, we will win. DW: Total cost of ownership is now big buying criteria, rather than scalability a few years ago.
M/L: From scalability stand point, avg TB. JA: Approaching 1TB per system. DW: 97% of ORCL databases are less than 1TB.
Buckingham Research Group: JA: Market is moving to a network based model.
JPM: Give us glimpse into what product roadmap is. DW: Stay tuned Monday. Will see over the year an integrated low end system for workgroups in remote office. A SAN switching fabric as a step to complete stg virtualization. Synchronous Mirroring.
Goldman f#%&ing Sachs: Sales people are incented. Would you expect normal 20/30/50 pattern? Backend loaded or what? DW: Can't see that well. Pushing for mid-April bookings. Have confidence in sales forecasts by sales force. TM: Storage is a market in which our customers must continue to invest. We will do what we can to continue in a linear fashion.
M/L: NAS/San are complimentery. Some conclude that NAS is a niche relative to EMC. Distinction between file and block level. DW: Why do you need block mode anything. M/L: Streaming media. DW: ORCL picked file level structure. They showed that we had a better solution. Misconceptions from the Northeast. Whoever is making those claims I challenge to put the data up.
Pru: The filer units were down modestly sequentially? JA: ASPs on filer side continue to go up as scalability goes up. Mix is hard to tell. We have repriced midrange. Highend is very strong in penetration. Not sure where it goes. Storage is expanding. DW: Unit count down because F840 has 4x capacity of F760. New low end unit will drive unit sales up and ASPs down. You will see more of the low end go in. I don't care. It's a question of deal size. As long as I win the accounts; TM: Deal sizes are getting larger because customers see what we can do.
M/L: San switching fabric? DW: We won't build our own switch so we will be partnering.
Thomas…partners: TM: Aggressive investment in education sales force. Using our own streaming technology to educate our force. Potential TB caches on the edge for video storage. DW: Center to edge strategy includes significant filer capacity. Caching is a small portion of the solution.
Roberson Stephens: Apologize for negative slant. What about revenue being a low end of range. DW: We did not expect to hit that hard in January. I don't feel that bad about this last quarter. IT doesn't take too many TXNs delaying purchases to hit $10M. TM: Competitors will not stop us. Now we must deliver products that people will buy.
End of call.
My overall impressions: 1) Analysts were doing there best to shoot holes in the report, but were unsuccessful. 2) NTAP's focus on enterprise customers, database horizontals, rather than ISPs is paying off. 3) NTAP is betting on the content management/distribution model with filers, caches, and WebManage software as the "killer app". 4) Monday's announcement will be of small scale filer for edge of content delivery network. 5) DW and team are confident that their direction is still sound and that competitors are not a threat to that direction as of yet.
Ntap's 3QFY2001 earnings report
http://www.ntap.com/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=NTAP&script=410&layout=7&item_id=151294
and conference call (require Real Audio player)
http://tm.intervu.net/template/smirror/ccbn/vod_rm.ram?stream=2001/february/08/ipc-ccbn-ntap-0208200....
>> IMO we are about due for another short-term up trend for the techs.
Thanks, I needed that <lol>.
Seriously, I need that.
uf
Only if he changed his screen name.
>> Not all people are going to be as fortunate as QS, NW, and I and get our same screen names over here.
It seemed pretty easy to me <gg>.
Congratulations on being named to the Cisco Chair, Lynn. I'm sure we can count on you to keep the board on an even keel. Since no one's posted it yet, here's the link to their earnings report,
http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/corp_020601.html
their conference call,
javascript:ext('http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=CSCO&script=1100')
and a summary from AP:
Cisco Misses Wall St. Expectations
SAN JOSE, Calif., Feb 06, 2001 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Cisco Systems Inc. missed Wall Street's earnings expectations for the first time in more than six years despite a nearly 50 percent gain in quarterly profits, blaming the slip on the softening U.S. economy.
The world's top supplier of equipment for the Internet and other computer networks earned $874 million, or 12 cents per share, in its second quarter ended Jan. 27. In the same three-month period a year ago, Cisco earned $816 million, or 11 cents per share.
Excluding one-time factors such as acquisition expenses and research and development costs, Cisco earned $1.33 billion, or 18 cents a share.
Analysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson Financial were expecting 19 cents per share. The company last failed to meet expectations in July 1994, and had beaten forecasts by exactly one penny per share for 13 straight quarters.
Cisco had second-quarter sales of $6.75 billion, up 55 percent from $4.36 billion.
"This quarter was even more challenging than we originally anticipated in light of the abrupt slowdown in the U.S. and the dramatic slowing of capital spending," Cisco chief executive John Chambers said.
Cisco's bottom line has benefited for years from the explosive growth of the Internet and strong demand for the switches and routers that make up computer networks.
During recent meetings with analysts, however, Chambers had warned that its second quarter was "more challenging" than originally forecast.
At the root of Cisco's problem was the slowdown in the U.S. economy and the subsequent slowdown in capital spending, particularly by smaller U.S. telecommunications companies such as Internet service providers.
Such businesses showed a 40 percent decrease in spending from the first to second quarter.
"This capital spending trend could get worse before it starts to improve," Chambers said.
Cisco is expecting the economic slowdown to persist for at least two quarters, he said.
For the third quarter, revenue growth is expected to be flat to down 5 percent, compared to the second quarter. The fourth quarter is expected to be flat, compared to the previous quarter.
But sales growth for the entire fiscal year is expected to stay within goals - a 40 percent gain over fiscal 2000, said chief financial officer Larry Carter.
The company also will slow hiring and trim other operational costs.
"It would not surprise me to see the market turn up just as rapidly as we saw the market turn down," Chambers said.
Analysts had reduced their forecasts for Cisco after Chambers' warnings in December, but many said the company's outlook remains strong in the long term.
"It's important to note that 48 percent of their business comes from international sources, so it's shielded somewhat from the domestic spending slowdown," said Seth Spalding, an analyst for Epoch Partners.
Added David Willis, an analyst with the Meta Group in Stamford, Conn.: "This is a good company with a very good market share and a loyal following."
For the first six months of Cisco's fiscal year, net profits totaled $2.69 billion, up from $1.71 billion in fiscal 2000. Sales were $13.27 billion, up from $8.27 billion.
Despite missing expectations, Chambers was optimistic about the company's future prospects.
"We remain confident about the market opportunity ahead of us over the next three to five years," he said. "This confidence is based on the continued impact of the Internet on productivity, and just how much more work needs to be done before every company is an e-company and a majority of the world's countries are e-countries."
Nice to see you here, Lynn, and congratulations on being named a Sun Director.
uf
They made the penalty box a reality. Clever. You can even have visitors while your in jail, though I don't think of the conjugal variety.
This will be very comfortable accomodations when I get nailed <gg>.
uf
ROFLMAO!
Thanks for the housewarming gift <lol>.
uf
>> Are we here to discuss G&K candidates, or is this a stock tick thing or I had a good/bad day thing, or is this
a thread about nothing?
We aren't here yet. So far we just staked out a homesite and registered our brand. At this point, consider it a bomb shelter; if SI blows up, we've have a place huddle.
But when we populate it, it will be site of the main thread. We'll start a different board for the mudges.
uf
It should, but you need to refresh it first.
Or maybe you need to ask someone who knows what they're talking about <lol>.
uf
Actually, I believe there are provisions to transfer Chairmanship, as well as appointing members of a Board of Directors who also have moderating priviledges.
uf
Seems right to me.
Good day today. None of my holdings went down.
uf
Always room for you, my friend. If this place was reserved for purists, Buckley would be talking to himself.
uf
>> I don't know the politics behind the exodus from SI, but if you and Vendit are here...
I'm not part of an eodus, Rex, but I am concerned about the reliability and long term viability of SI now that there have been so many changes at insp, the new owner. At this point, this thread is a backup site. Depending on how this community grows onces it's past the beta stage, it may serve a different role. I like a lot of the ideas that are being incorporated in IH.
uf
Glad to hear that, Rex. I got a double post out of my first effort, and thought IH was pulling an SI on me <lol>.
Pretty dead over here, though, other than Vendit's thread. Most of his crew seemed to cross over with him.
uf
Looks like IH has the stutters. Must be infected with the same virus as SI.
uf
Just got home from the gym and it looks like SI is having another outage.
Any G&Kers hanging around?
uf
Just got home from the gym and it looks like SI is having another outage.
Any G&Kers hanging around?
uf
Do you have the Q on your tracker? It managed to sneak up a little today.
uf
RJL, out of curiosity, why did you plant this thread in the Sheriff's section?
uf
Wait just a minute! You're already the circuit judge - you can't be deputy sheriff, too.
Can you?
uf
I'd like to report a theft, yer honor. Some crook named Mr. Market stole about half my stash over the last year. I'm figuring he's going to plead insanity, and try to prove it by pointing to his manic-depressive behavior pattern over the past 24 months, but take it from me, he's crazy as a fox. Since I'm indigent as a result of the robbery, will the court appoint me a free lawyer?
uf
>> BAM! you are looking at Uncle Frank
I hope not <lol>. This is what you'll see:
http://nuttysites.com/gorilla/
Classic. Have you read the Mudge lately? I'd hate to see it spread.
uf
>> He's talking about adding like "G&K" or something after the header..in the ticker spot..
How do I do that, or do I need admin assistance?
If it's the latter, please add G&K.
tia,
uf