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I agree, maybe one or two more days testing yesterdays lows, then up and away for precious metals.
Even if economy recovers, which I doubt, fed will keep pumping money.
Phony ways of making it look like virus is going away, and russia will pay heavy price for pushing vacine before it is proven to be worthy.
So which upside gap, 331 or 328, will be filled next?
I expect 329 will hold, at least short term.
I still see silver at $35 or even $50 next year.
looks likely you will be right. Market correction along with precious metals correction makes sense, in a market that has made no sense (as in, they expect massive fed liquidity along with vastly improved economy)
Am finished playing precious metals for a long time, after a big loss on slv short. I was tempted to double down yesterday, who woulda guessed it would fall so far today?
Silver not even down to its 20dma, that was an insane blow off top.
Question now, is positive fundamentals for the precious metals going to spark another rally, or will the insane blow off top prevail to cause even more downside actions short term?
My gut says higher prices after a bit more downside action next couple weeks.
Vix is setting up for at least a one or two day big down move in the markets. Not saying is a "sure thing", but markets are overbought short term, perhaps at least a good place to take some profits on long positions?
As perhaps the only non republican on this board (for the record, the last time I voted for a democrat for president was Walter Mondale. I have also never in 50 years voted for a republican, not even for dog catcher) I believe all that matters is which party is better for the economy, and that has been historically the democratic party since WW 1. The market has also done enormously better under the democratic presidents.
I still expect $50 and oz next year, would begin to sell my coins at $45 an oz, not sure where gold will get to, may not sell them, will depend on fed, etc.
Covered all my short in slv at 24.5, had put it on at 21,ouch! But my coins went up $3.50 in that time, so overall, did not really lose any money. I will sell my coins when silver gets above $45
Dumb to short primary trend, today is just an extreme overbought condition being corrected. I think silver goes sideways, between $25 and $30 for the next couple months, before moving a lot higher.
Still heavily short the spy, I expect it to fall hard and fast soon, however, not into a bear market. The viurus could really hit hard in sept, then the market has to fall.
I predicted (but did not profit off) the market would go up into the stimulus bill passing.
now it looks like no deal at all, as Trump always does what will help him get elected, and acting on his own will seem like the best thing to him. Not saying is right or wrong, but Trump decided to not compromise with Dems, and now the economy will suffer because of it.
Only problem is the money will not actually get to anyone! Sure, college loans will be foregiven for awhile, but not totally cancelled.
And if anyone actually gets the $400 a week, it could be months before they do.
Will the market finally have a 5 to 10% correction? Last week's action looked like a "blow off top"
NO reason we cant go another 1% higher, but I am now 200% short spy.
Last, the fed will pump massive amounts of money into the system if the market falls 5%, so I doubt we drop more than 8% at the most in the next month or 2
Interesting tell: NYAD was negative today, should have been strong.
Says this rally is all about a few very big companies that are making tons of money in this crazy times, while most people and businesses are hurting big time.
If we dont get a deal by next monday, look out below on monday. Even could get ugly tomorrow, and then it could keep going up, up, up.
Will post when get final CBOE numbers, but looks like extreme optimism.
Normally, a big up day ends the rally short term, but we are in a "Meltup"(look at slv), so there is no way to know when this tops out.
Shorting is not an easy way to make money.
3400 should be a top, will think about shorting then.
BTW,insane levels of optimism in options, but the AAII numbers are normal for a major bear market, not a big rally. Will they be right, or are they eventually going to throw in the towel and start buying heavily?
I agree, stocks will top when the bill is passed,am expecting a 2 to 3% correction into next week, then pop back up to todays high or higher, depending on the bill total stimulus.
I should have seen this coming back in March at the low,and been 100% long since then.
I dont think there will be a bigger correction than 7%, unless of course there is no stimulus bill or Trump cancels the China Deal, which is possible.
Silver also hit my target of $27, back to fully hedged my physical silver with a short in slv
spx hit 3330, am now 250% short the spy
Vix, trin, and nyad all say keep buying, however, a lot of excess optimism in options and cavalier response by wall st to congress deadlock on stimulus bill, plus china rhetoric heating up.
Earnings looking great, but will loss of $600 a week for 20 million Americans hurt the economy short term?
I am still short 150% of my money spy
Shorted 150% of my money, spy at 329. Lucky had order that did not get filled afterhours on friday!
Think we could see spy 332 this week, will short more if that happens.
The one piece of the bear puzzle that does not fit, is the AAII continued bearishness, even as the market has rallied so big.
I am super bullish now, after we have a correction sometime in the next 3 months.
The moon does have a small influence on the markets, i remember the large drop in 1988 and 1997 were both just before full moons.
Full moon tonight.
New moons often mark important market tops, next on on August 18th, important bradley turn date August 17th.
All bets are off if Trump refuses to accept election result and all kinds of shenanigans erupt. Then could get really nasty for the market into the end of the year.
A biden win will be very positive for the stock market, a win for trump along with dems taking house and senate would be very bad for the markets.
would not be surprised to see spy 323 or 300 next week.
a/d numbers weakening, but that condition can last for weeks before a big drop. Same for overenthusiasm in options.
Fade the first half hour of trading monday has been working for over a month, I think it could do it again.
I posted last weekend, that if we gapped down monday, I would buy. Instead it went up, and I said that was not clear what it would do after.
This coming monday, however, if we gap down, unless news is truly bad, like no stimulus deal possible, then market will then rally up into 3320 possible. if we gap up, then top is in.
bottom line: With fed and earnings pushing prices higher, why short? Because into mid november market will have a 5 to 10% correction, setting up next big up move, IMHO
Again, probably best move is to just buy tech leaders, hold your nose, dont watch, and wait for next major blow off top to sell.
Tough to trade commodities, unless you use futures. Thanks for article link, already had read it.
Futures and options are the best leverage plays, but too much stress for me.
Covered my short in spy at 323,trying to put it back on afterhours at 327.4 again.
shorted 120% of my money spy at 327.4, been waiting for weeks to do this again.
I agree, if not for the fed action since march, spx would be below 1500 right now.
I plan to fade the afterhours action, but if it goes down hard, sell short if it goes up big.
As long as the fed is propping up the bond market, the stock market will not crash, IMHO.
2850 on spx is likely later this year, and we could see massive fear as it falls to that level, about a 10% correction. That would set up the best buy signal since june 2009.
I watch the hot tech stocks keep going up and up and up, with almost no pullbacks. Waiting for the correction in aug-oct to buy nvda, tsla, and docu (maybe sq, mu, or enph too)
Covered half my slv short at 21.5 for $1200 gain, at that price,I have a $1200 loss on the other half of the position.
MY coins are up to insane valuations, am now fully hedged the american silver eagle coins, but not the gold and other silver coins.
Will short more slv if it runs back up to 24,the interday high it set afterhours on tuesday, or cover the other half at 19.5 if it falls that far soon.
Missed the market short again, but my gut says congress passes a bill next week and the spx rallies up to 3320. Today afterhours should be exciting!
I started buying in 1964, silver coins, and bought gold coins in 1999. Face value for silver coins, $300 each for gold coins.
I had some financial troubles in 1995, but did not sell my silver coins then. I sold my silver coins when silver got to $50 and the gold coins got above $1600 in 2011.
bought a lot of silver coins last May at $15 each. Lucky move.
Bought a lot of gold coins at below $1200 in August 2018, also a lucky move.
Bottom line: I plan on selling in about 2 years, when silver again runs up to $50 and gold gets to who knows how high. I did short slv when silver got to $23 last week, and doubled my short at slv 22.8 today. Only see a drop to $21 for slv, but could be worse if news is right.
If we gap down monday, is probably a buy signal. A gap up would be more difficult to read,but most likely would be a move back up to 3300 on spx.
Would carefully buy any gap down monday, within the first 30 minutes of trading.
Thank you,puts in context some of what I had noticed about certain ratios.
A short term blow off top for precious metals does make sense,like back in the end of august last year, when silver then went down from 19.8 to 16.6,about a 15% drop. I expect about the same here, from 23.5 down to 20
covered my spy short at 320, probably means it will tank now!
I checked, and I shorted spy a lot this month, and am up just barely on all the trades. Made a lot shorting in may and june, lost in april.
Taking a breather, need to sit back and think more about my longer term strategy. Still plan on shorting more at spx 3330, buying at 2950. AS in, slowly getting into those trades as price approaches those levels.
My favorite stocks are twlo and nvda. I also like docu, sq, mu, amd, roku, and akam. My cousin says to avoid zm, he thinks it is badly managed. Smart guy, has several patents on microchips.
I would not trust moderna information on their vacine. I expect azn, pfe, or jnj to "win" the race for the first effective vacine.
Just a hunch,am not willing to bet on this hunch, but call options would be a good way to play it, if I was going to do something, and buy puts on mrna.
Thanks for the information. I have only been watching the action in the physical side the past year, not before.
My gut is we go sideways for a month or two, then up and away.
Am only shorting as much as the physical assets I have, so worse is I dont make more money the next month or so.
Wish I had shorted a lot more spy,dont think we get up to 3300 before we get down to between 3000 and 3100.
Did not post, but doubled my short in spy and slv after hours yesterday.
Am happy being heavily short for now. spy 317 support this week.
Dollar to silver ratio dropped precipitously in the last week,again, looks like a short term top in precious metals. I still, however, am very bullish longer term for silver and gold, but think we go sideways for a month or so,maybe between $19 and $23 an oz for silver.
Last, even more silver coins for sale today on ebay, a virtual flood of new supply.
Am talking about on ebay. Before the big drop in prices in March, coins were about 10% higher than the spot price for silver.
Then in the big drop, the prices did not fall almost at all, but very few were available.
The past couple months, when silver regained most of its losses, prices stayed about 20% above spot.
About a week ago, all of a sudden, prices went to 30% above spot.
And today, massive numbers of silver coins of all kinds appeared for sale.
Honestly, not sure what it all means, other than all of a suddent
a lot of people want to sell their silver coins, and a lot of people still want to buy them.
Two days ago, it was very hard to buy american eagle silver dollars.
Today there are about 50 new listings!
NOt sure what it all means, other than maybe a lot of people will start selling silver now that it has hit $23
Of course, silver and slv up $1 afer hours!
I expect silver and slv to go up a bit more into thursday, then fall back to todays highs next week. Will add to my short on thursday, then cover the whole thing next week.
Bottom line: Precious metals are on the move big time. Between the fed,the european central bank, and the congress, devaluation of currencies is a given, and precious metals are going up becuase of it.
What I did today was short the same dollar amount of SLV, as what I could have gotten had I sold my coins (after commision) on ebay, when slv was almost at its high price of the day.
Bottom line: When I bought the coins at $15 each a little over a year ago,my plan was to sell them when I could get, after commision, $23. If I had sold them today(not easy to do with large amounts), I would have gotten $26 a coin!
I plan to keep buying silver, just think a day like today leads to a short term top, with spot price going sideways for a month or more. At worse, I cover my short with a tiny gain in August, at best, slv falls to 18 by next week and am out with a 10% gain.
covered the spy I shorted earlier today at 324, sold short enough slv to cover fully my coins at 19.85.
I see slv back to 18, not sure if today is the top, why I took profit on my spy, shorted silver instead
If you look at longer term charts, silver should peak at $23,then have some kind of serious correction, maybe back down to $19.
I made a lot of money in 2019 shorting gdx, have not shorted it since last year
Precious metals are only reflecting the result of massive monetary stimulus
shorted another 100% of my money at 326.6, there has to be a small pullback soon, and then up to 3300. Maybe 3200.
Looks like 3300 on spx soon, will short spy at 329.
Negative nyad numbers, big top forming. Todays news was actually positive for the economy next year, but I still think we slow down considerbly later this year, and election news by middle of August is going to hurt the market too.
Looks like the july 20th top is not happening, although later today or this week could get nasty.
Most likely, we go up into August, then have a very quick and nasty correction. The options numbers are so overly bullish, when the selling starts, it could lead to a much larger correction quicly.
Bottom line: The only investment am sure will do well the next 6 months is gold and silver. After that, depends on who is running the country.