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Thanks Keith. I posted 8 parts much earlier on SI. Obviously another 3 parts have been added by the Yahoo poster. I have run out of free post for SI so those interested should post a link to Keith's fuller version.
"For certain data-intensive applications like Wall Street trading, HP's tests showed Opteron brought performance improvements of "anywhere from 40% all the way up to several hundred percent" over Intel's latest Xeon line of 32-bit server chips, says HP server marketing manager Mark Hudson. He insists that HP remains committed to Itanium and believes sales won't be hurt by Opteron but also says, "Opteron has sustained legs in the marketplace." HP recently announced it would no longer sell Itanium-based workstations"
Post on Yahoo without attribution. I do recognise some of the inernal references as being a few weeks old so perhaps it is genuine.
it will be a non-public offering, a rating is uncalled for
Credit rating agencies can take anything into consideration. The proposed loan might effect the risk attaching to the company's other debt instruments. However, I do find it odd that it ranks the proposed 600,000 as B- while the bulk of AMD debt is B and it refers to this new rating as an improvement due to better fundamentals. Or have I misread this?
If things go well the convertible debt will be converted and what's left is only about a billion, which is not bad.
It's going to be a dynamic situation. New debt may be taken on to build another fab or to re-fit old fabs. By the same token, old debt can be retired not only from positive cash flow but also from new issues.
If AMD breaks through the share price ceiling and convinces that it is on a strong upward trend, it should be able to raise a billion through a secondary issue and not upset existing shareholders too much.
Intel (and AMD) hit the mainstream media
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3746640.stm
Press Releases: Fitch Rates AMD's Proposed Sr. Unsecured Debt Offering 'B-'
http://www.amdzone.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1463
New AMD processor on way
Published on October 15, 2004
Advanced Micro Devices Inc, the world’s second-largest microprocessor manufacturer, is planning to market its new 64-bit processor in Thailand in an effort to grab a larger share of the enterprise – ie, business – computer business. .....
AMD expects that revenue from businesses will account for 10 per cent of its worldwide sales next year. It works with more than 2,000 manufacturers and partners worldwide to create more products that can use 64-bit computer platforms.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2004/10/15/business/index.php?news=business_15068290.html
Yet another nod to AMD by Intel?
http://blogs.zdnet.com/index.php?p=630
It's impossible to verify why a few people bought and sold a few shares after hours. My gut feeling is that initial reaction to the financing announcement was negative. It sounded to some like AMD was obliged to re-schedule its loan payments, or take on new debt, or even dilute its shares with a financial instrument that may be convertible. Had the latter been true then one might have expected more short selling hedging by the note-buyers.
But on the basis of the information provided, none of the above appears true. It is true that AMD is rescheduling some of its debt, but this is a positive initiative not a forced, negative reaction.
I suspect that Max-Pain jitters, and uncertainty about the recovery in Intel's share price, will have more of a dampening effect on AMD's price in the next few days.
Keith: There was a hint of a coming price war in Ruiz's twice repeated remarks that he intends to be aggressive with AMD's large inventory of flash. I don't relish donating long-awaited cpu profits to subsidising a flash price war.
Keith: There was a hint of a coming price war in Ruiz's twice repeated remarks that he intends to be aggressive with AMD's large inventory of flash. I don't relish donating long-awaited cpu profits to subsidising a flash price war.
I think the market has peeked for north America...
The case for AMD is that even if sector growth slows (cpus), it is gaining market share and improving margins. I think there is some limited mileage in this for the investor over the next three months. Flash is more problematic. AMD guidance is unreliable (there was not even a hint of the problems in either 2Q CC or the late August series of interviews with Ruiz). And MirrorBit seems always to be pregnant but unable to deliver.
I think you are faintly ridiculous. This is the third post in which you have objected to a discussion of guidance. Now you call it "ranting". You actually asked the moderators to have the subject declared off topic before you saw reaction to your suggestion and deleted your own post. Your argument is no more than the intellectually bereft "reduction ad absurdum". You have said before that there should be no guidance at all and that shareholders should trust management and judge them on the results after twelve months. You apply this rule selectively only to AMD and then only to posts that question your interpetation of its guidance. As far as I am concerned you can take it that your nonsense has been read and will now be ignored.
Ashok Kumar and AMD
Demand was weak across the boad and that is why you have seen all of these technology companies preannounce their earnings,' said Ashok Kumar, an analyst at Raymond James. ``AMD has gained share, the consumer peaked this summer and small business is weakening.'
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/9902082.htm?1c
EDIT: You need to register
"But Morgan Stanley & Co. analyst Mark Edelstone said the numbers are so close to forecasts that in some ways it's a nonevent.
He doesn't expect Intel's stock to move much one way or the other in coming days.
'Not A Disaster'
"They will get a little bounce just because of the fact it's not worse than what people expected. It's hard to see more than a nominal bounce," Edelstone said.
He said even though Intel barely met analysts' views, its stock got an after-hours bounce because battered investors were glad results weren't really bad.
"People have a sense of relief that it's not a disaster. But the results aren't anything to write home about," he said.
Edelstone has some concerns about Intel's near-term prospects. "The outlook confirms what we knew, that the PC market is showing growth that is less than normal for this season. In addition, clearly Intel is losing market share to AMD," he said.
Intel's microprocessor unit growth last quarter was 3% vs. 11% for rival Advanced Micro Devices. (AMD)
"Comparing Intel's business today with what it was in the past, I think they are in a very difficult position," Edelstone said."
http://www.investors.com/editorial/general01.asp?v=10/12
I don't agree with your interpetation of the CC transcript.
A poster's views should be treated on their merits. And even if I thought your question was relevant, which I don't, I would quibble with its logic. A person who invests real money in a stock is not negative if he scrutinises the company and its pronouncements.
conductor/yuri: Your post repeated my main comments. However I think you underestimate the wriggle room the words left. The responses introduced the idea of "seasonality", then "traditional seasonality", and then the idea that seasonality should not apply to AMD going forward. This last comment seemed to imply that because of expected penetration in enterprise and all-round growth in market share, cpus would be above traditional seasonality - that is above the 10-12% which you seem to think was the guidance.
We now have Intel and Philips guiding below traditional seasonality. I hope AMD will not amend its definition to mean sector norm.
"Question – John Lau: Okay. Thank you. I wanted to take another try at the PC question. I was wondering what do you believe is a typical PC seasonality for Q4 in your expectations? And while you may be growing faster than the seasonal, is the overall market fairly robust and seasonal at this point? And I have a follow-up. Thank you.
Answer – Henri Richard: We believe the traditional seasonality is between 10% and 12%.
Answer – Hector de J. Ruiz: I would like to add to that is that going forward, it may not be as meaningful for us sometimes to talk about seasonality as it applies to us. We've now departed significantly in terms of architecture products, features, et cetera. For example, we had a very healthy back-to-school activity for us. We felt good, very positive about it. I'm not so sure that that was exactly in line with general trends. And being this small, in terms of dollar share, being at 10% or less of the dollar share, frankly, what we see may be more applicable to what we see for AMD rather than for the industry. And so, therefore, given the momentum we're building on penetration in the enterprise, which we still believe will let us gain share and go out of the year at a healthy number that we communicated before, and the acceptance of the AMD64 technology in the client space has positioned us to have a very optimistic outlook this quarter.
Good to see that the little islanders were as wrong about Intel as they were about AMD. AMD investors with a short to medium term investment horizon need Intel to do well.
The forward-looking guidance for 3Q to 4Q is modest. I suppose Intel (and Phillips this morning) are redefining "seasonal" to mean something less than the norm.
It revives questions about Ruiz's definition of "seasonal". He left the impression that AMD's is leaving behind its former seasonal norm because it was based more on the consumer market, and is moving upscale to an enterprise seasonal norm.
Although you can never be sure with Ruiz guidance because it relies on vague words rather than numbers, I hope it means that AMD's norm will be higher in future and that growth in this 4Q will be two or three times higher than that forecast by Intel.
Tests show users prefer thin clients
Users prefer a thin client desktop to a full PC for running the same applications, a study by Winterm for Wyse Technology has found.
http://www.computerweekly.com/articles/article.asp?liArticleID=134051&liArticleTypeID=1&liCa....
EDIT "Duron" used in test
Paradigm Solutions Now Available on AMD Opteron(TM) Processor-Based Systems
Monday October 11, 4:57 am ET
HOUSTON, Texas, October 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Paradigm(TM), the premier provider of advanced petroleum geoscience and engineering technology to the oil and gas exploration and production industry, announces that its industry-leading solutions are now available on AMD Opteron(TM) processor-based Linux® systems, in full 64-bit mode.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041011/ukm006_1.html
My posts speak for themselves. I don't recognise them as re-gurgitated by doug on SI. Nor will I debate them on his terms.
On the substance:
It is almost a truism that, as a general rule, Intel provides good guidance.
I notice that jayxxx, the compiler of the eps competition, acknowledged the other day, that his self-imposed obligation to make an Intel earnings prediction, as well as an AMD prediction, has taught him over the quarters/years, that Intel's method of guidance is superior. But I believe that this is generally acknowledged in the market. As a rule the market can rely on Intel's guidance. In addition, Intel regularly schedules a mid-quarterly report in which it updates the guidance. Earlier this year Ruiz appeared to acknowledged the superiority of Intel's guidance but went unto to say that Intel's business model was quite different from AMD's. In particular he mentioned the nature of Intel's clientele. He said that AMD could not emulate the Intel guidance model. I think I understand what he meant by that. At the same time, I hope that in the future, as AMD become more of an enterprise company, it will be able to emulate Intel's guidance model.
I really don't understand the desire among some AMD investors to belittle Intel's guidance. So it was wrong this quarter, but they corrected it! My sense is that the market expects Intel to meet its reduced guidance. doug on SI is one of those who hopes/expects it won't. doug was wrong about AMD's results, he is about due for a correct prediction.
When a company gives guidance that is not specific but is vague then it opens itself to the criticism that what it is expressing is its intent and wish rather than its prediction.
In the case of AMD, Ruiz said clearly and repeatedly that he expects cpus in 4q to be better than seasonal. He expects flash to be flat or up, subject to a resolution of the customer problems he had already described.
Apparently, not everyone trusts this guidance. In fact one critic said "they are fooling themselves". Others have raised questions about the guidance because they are concerned about AMD's flash inventory and Intel's cpu and flash inventory.
When an analyst asked questions about Intel's inventory at the CC, Ruiz deflected the question. He also made a point of questioning the normal definition of "seasonal" so we are left wondering what definition he is using in his guidance. (Although, on a preliminary reading of his remarks, the new definition seems to favour AMD).
Those who questioned Ruiz 2CC guidance and the completeness of his August/September remarks, were proven right. Obviously he is not always going to be wrong or right. Interested, informed osbervors have a right to analyse his guidiance, analysts have a duty.
While I don't accept doug's kneejerk paranoia about anyone who holds a different opinion from him (including investors who may have even more AMD stock then he) it is obvious that there is broad institutional interest in Intel and a general desire in the market to see it do well. There is a corollary desire to question AMD's claims of gains in market share, or at least, continuing or exponential gains.
The obligation on AMD is to be as transparent as possible, and as consistent as possible. It is winning new friends both among customers and investors, but it would help if its guidance was more specific, if it held regular mid-quarterly reports to correct its gudiance, and if Ruiz could convey the impression that he had as much foresight about the next three months as he seems to have about the next three years.
I don't know what errors he is talking about. I did not make any. I expressed an opinion. He is intolerant of opinions different from his and quick to attribute bad motive.
In a recent exchange on SI at the end of August and beginning of September I pointed out that one should be cautious about assuming that AMD's results would be better than analyst's projections, and they may not even make the expectations. doug put great store on his bullish interpetation of Ruiz remarks to reporters. He described my comments as "misleading" for my own "purposes". It's difficult to know what he imagined as my "purposes" since I have a very large proportion of my capital invested in AMD.
In fact, AMD warned and only met the reduced version of the analysts expectations - reduced after the warning.
I won't be verbally harrassed into explaining why I chose to post on iHUb rather than SI - but seeing that doug's rage is spiralling to the obvious detriment of both threads, I will explain that my quarterly subscription to SI ran out yesterday and I have already used my three free posts there today.
I may or may not subscribe again to SI.
Don't be ridiculous. AMD's guidance is not off topic. Keith and I posted on this topic on this board before doug began making personal remarks on SI. You chose to reproduce his personal remarks on here. Why don't you go over to SI if you want to debate him?
Doug is now almost incadescent!
Rupert, is there any particular reason you're badmouthing me over on iHub, instead of responding to my posts on this board?
Just curious.
Any chance you'll address the substance of those posts?
Doug
Doug:
Your posts have no substance, doug. You are a sophist. You argue for the sake of it. If AMD were the Vatican you would be an ultramontanist. You see enemies of the faith under every bed.
I am replying on here because I want to.
Doug is very exercised on SI about my posts in which I raise questions about the quality of AMD's guidance. He refers to them as FUD, which is, I suppose, an upgrade from "misleading". Actually it was his numerous shrill posts which could have been misleading - the ones in which he told us what Ruiz meant to say both in his 2CC guidance and his various late August and early September musings to the press. Too bad about the warning, doug.
I say "could have been misleading" because I don't know anyone who was misled by them. Doug is known to be more effective as a "trainspotter" catalogue clerk, checking product descriptions, than a financial prophet.
Intel put specific numbers on their range. They then corrected it during a pre-scheduled mid-term update. AMD never makes forecasts of comparable specificity, nor does it have a routinesed manner of updating and correcting. The Ruiz series of interviews and comments at the end of August were as bad as the earlier guidance. He never even so much as hinted at the flash problems and was suggesting, even then, that he did not how cpus would turn out. Despite this some SI posters were interpreting him in the best possible light, in a highly misleading manner.
Over the years Intel has been far superior in its guidance.
Every time flash is weak we hear foolish calls to 'sell the flash division!' If those same people were to look at, say, the previous quarter or two, they would see this is a very bad idea.
I have called for the spin off flash in previous quarters. I think you underestimate the strength of the arguments.
Keith - AMD predicts it will gain market share (from Intel) in cpus in 4Q. It says it intends to be aggressive in seeking market share in flash, too.
I agree that there is a big hole in the information about flash in 3Q. However, AMD may not be in a position to say whether or not it has lost or gained share relative to Intel, although it will know about a win or loss to this or that customer.
The Intel situation is made more complicated by the fact that it concentrates on low density and its gains in market share may be more at the cost of other smaller producers in low density than AMD.
The analysts who predicted over-supply and irrational pricing by Intel never did deal with the problem Intel will have if it's flash policies produce an expanding loss. These days it cannot really afford more losses.
Keith
They were silent on Intel. They spoke as though it's flash pricing was irrelevant - although they admitted that flash is always competitive. In fact they hinted that the substantial flash inventory they now have will be used to be very aggressive going after new markets. They did not mention any loss of market share.
I guess they would argue that even though the analysts may have been right in their bottom line predictions, they were right for the wrong reasons. AMD did not lose revenue due to Intel gaining market share.
I find it hard to reconcile Ruiz's Late August early September public statements with what we now know he knew at that time. More than one poster on SI trumpeted his statements as being bullish without any acknowledgement of a potential problem with flash. This was very misleading. In fact, as I pointed out a the time, Ruiz did not make clear whether his remarks included flash.
Given that he knew about the Chinese inventory problem by then it is extraordinary that he never mentioned it.
If you believe Ruiz, there was no noteworthy market share loss in flash. The shortfall was due entirely to inventory problems with Chinese 2nd and 3rd tier OEMs who had double and triple ordered in 2Q, together with a government controlled economic slowdown. He also said that there were signs in late Septemebr that this supply chain problem might be being solved.
In general they said that flash will always remain competitive but that AMD envisages growing margins arriving at some unspecified point in time with 35% margins and operating profit of 15%
JMP Secruities is one if the analsyts who believe that AMD should and probably will sell or spin off the flash division. But when the analyst put this suggestion to Ruiz - that AMD should consider maximising investor returns by doing something about flash - Ruiz denied any interest saying that the potential was so great.
I've said it before and i'll say it again - between now and the next nine months is the time for AMD to divest itself of flash. Hanging unto it might do wonders for the ego of the managers but it destabilises AMD and any profits it might cough up would not be as valuable as the capital it sale would raise and the debt it would reduce.
"This presages a terrific fourth quarter and 2005," said Rick Whittington, an analyst at Caris & Co.
AMD Posts Profit,
Led by Strength
In Microprocessors
By DON CLARK
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 8, 2004; Page B4
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. posted a third-quarter profit, as a slowdown in data-storage chips was offset by a sharp rebound in microprocessor sales.
The Sunnyvale, Calif., company, the longtime underdog to Intel Corp. in selling microprocessors for personal computers, reported net income for the period ended Sept. 26 of $43.8 million, or 12 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $31.2 million, or nine cents a share. Revenue rose 30% to $1.24 billion from $953.8 million. But revenue was down 2% from the second quarter, reflecting problems in the flash-memory market that the company disclosed Monday. Sales of flash chips were up 27% from the same period in 2003, but declined 20% from the second quarter. AMD attributed the decline to softness in sales of cellular phones that use such chips.
AMD's high-profile microprocessor business is surging, however, benefiting from technical advantages over Intel's products. The company said microprocessor sales jumped 34% from the year-earlier period and 21% from the second quarter. The company also said it expects its overall sales to increase in the fourth period from the third, driven by microprocessor sales that exceed seasonal trends, while flash sales will be "flat to up."
"This presages a terrific fourth quarter and 2005," said Rick Whittington, an analyst at Caris & Co.
Despite the slowdown in flash memory, AMD's gross profit margin rose in the third quarter to 40% from 38% in the second quarter. The company's outlook contrasts with many other chip makers, which have been grappling with rising inventories and fears that demand for computers and other products was weakening. In early September, Intel cut its forecast for third-quarter revenue and profit margins, citing demand for microprocessors at the low end of seasonal norms.
But Hector Ruiz, AMD's chief executive, indicated that AMD's microprocessors for desktop and server systems were taking market share from Intel.
Intel declined to comment, citing the quiet period before it announces earnings.
In 4 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange, AMD shares were up 14 cents at $14.11, and were at $14.08 in after-hours trading following the announcement.
Write to Don Clark at don.clark@wsj.com
Paul and Yuri: greg s was the moderator on the Intel forum here at ihub, and has tended to be rather inflammatory when he visits this forum
So predictably inflammatory, that when I read his post to Yuri I did not assume it was a welcome. He congratulated him on his "birthday" by drawing attention to the fact that his first post was on the day he registered. One of greg's charming traits is to attribute double identities to some posters on the AMD boards on iHub and SI. I assumed he was doing it again in his post to Yuri.
AMD Responds To 90nm Yield Rumors
".............AMD has responded vehemently denying any issues at 90nm, and backing their production plans for their AMD64 line. AMD's Damon Muzny has provided us with the following statement by telephone.
Our transition to 90nm for AMD64 processors is on track. We are having strong yields, we are having excellent power consumption, heat dissipation is is excellent as well. We will initiate volume 90nm production in the 2nd quarter, and we expect to deliver products for revenue in the 3rd quarter of 04. So we are on track. The current 130nm AMD Athlon 64 FX core is capable of scaling for performance needs for customers for that segment for the remainder of the year.
So we clearly have AMD on record stating that they are experiencing none of the problems their competitor Intel, and partner IBM are being tested by.
With the 3rd quarter just days away we should soon see 90nm review samples coming perhaps in coordination with the launch of PCI Express chipsets from VIA and Nvidia. If AMD indeed has no issues with power consumption or dissipating heat then good yields could carry them to a strong 2nd half that could lead to market share gains at the expense of Intel."
http://www.amdzone.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file...
DARBES: See you soon.
This TA takes the biscuit! He talks about AMD being "free to fall" because of some "engulfing candlestick" in his fevered imagination. Sounds like MacBeth. "Is this a dagger before me, its handle towards my hand. Come let me clutch thee!"
"AMD on verge of forming 'bearish engulfing' By Tomi Kilgore NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: news, chart, profile) are on the verge of "engulfing" the prior day's intraday range, which would then create a short-term reversal pattern. The stock opened ($16.32) above the prior session's intraday high ($16.19), reached a new high for the recent move (6-week high of $16.35), but was last down 64 cents, or 4 percent, at $15.54. A close below Tuesday's low of $15.62 would create a "bearish engulfing" pattern on the candlestick charts, or a "key reversal" in Western technicals. The chipmaker's stock would then be free to fall to support at the June 3 low of $14.58, followed by the bottom of the downside gap between the May 19 low of $14.32 and the May 18 high of $14.11."
HP promises it too will ship Itanium blade
http://www.techworld.com/opsys/news/index.cfm?newsid=1707
It's difficult to believe that an executive as rational and disciplined as Ruiz has not made plans to improve marketing. Given production transition issues and temporary capacity restraints, he is allowing the buzz from new products and design wins to create free or low-cost publicity among enthusiasts and IT departments. As capacity increases and with it revenues, I would expect to see a larger marketing budget and hopefully the hiring of some fresh help in-house or through agencies.
Duron still being sold in Mexico. Just received this SPAM email.
Duron 1300 XP
128 memory
48 GB HD
15" screen
Floppy
Multimedia CD
Price $435 USD plus tax