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Interesting premise. From a strategic perspective, if I were on the management team of NWBO, I would steer as far from China for as long as possible...
We are...
And great points back at you...thanks for the response.
I know, all investors know...
the stock keeps going down
While the issue with Taiwan is a clear danger, it is less present than some may realize. According to a study by a think tank on war, Xi has to get appointed Supreme Leader for another 5 years and that will happen next month. He has consolidated power by appointing all but 7 of the 281 leaders of the party, is pushing for more "loyalty" to him, will have to deal with the impact their Covid lockdown has created for the economy, the aging of the population (which means fewer consumers), the real-estate bubble and the people behind it, all while growing the navy in sufficient numbers to ring Taiwan and prevent anyone from getting in or out. The think tank says 2025.
The reason I can speak to these things is that it was part of a discussion I had with my students on the macroenvironment. I also know from having had to deal with China back in the day of being a global manager. Why this should even matter to NWBO investors is simple...do not do what many businesses do, including pharma. Add in the prospect of all those potential Chinese patients/consumers. If one is unclear about the theft of critical IP, you can only imagine what that scenario might be in China with NWBO. Good golly Miss Molly, they will help NWBO build a facility in China; that is how they get into one's business.
Whatever the numbers are Elite shows for Q2, Kirkov will have influenced none of them. It takes roughly 90-120 days for someone to take over a new org structure and show an impact. WIth that said, without question Nasrat had a strategic direction that included more control over distribution. Although Nasrat has continued to say he was happy with Elite's partnership with LCI, that is what is expected from a good partner. Nonetheless, hiring Kirkov so soon after the announcement that LC was terminating the agreement makes clear the LCI announcement was not a surprise. Moreover, there are ways a company that move a supplier toward such a decision. This is part of the secret sauce of being an effective manager that Nasrat may have employed.
As to this...
Obviously there has been a small seller affecting upward movement. There are many reasons for q person exiting which can be unrelated to the fundamentals; perhaps the the seller has to meet a margin call on a marginable stock and Elite sales are all cash. In any event, current prices, in hindsight, will prove to be a great buying opportunity.
James, I am in absolute agreement with your post...
What should we expect when there is a new approval and the share price goes down? I have said this is the OTC manipulation and someone (thanks F) provided me with a link to confirm that much of what we see and believe about manipulation is not our imagination...
https://www.petepetit.com/mimedx/downloads/Counterfeiting-Stock.pdf
Roman, thanks for the post and allow me to add a little business perspective.
Let's set aside the conspiratorial nature of big pharma and efforts to suppress the small firms with novel treatments that threaten their established markets and, instead, recognize that many have sought to acquire potential novel drugs to reduce their R&D spending and inform an already developing therapeutic area. In fact, a couple of BP firms identified on this board are worth mentioning.
Of course, we have Merck and its hunt for acquisitions that fit the above narrative. Their interest in Seagen appears to have waned (or entered a new negotiations narrative), but they are trying to fit other opportunities into their development picture, like Moderna. Could they be interested in NWBO because that could give patent life to Keytruda? Of course. Or because it makes sense all on its own.
But how about Roche?
As I previously mentioned, Roche is hitting an enormous patent cliff this year that will see its top three best selling drugs lose exclusivity. In fact, those three drugs are in first, third, and fourth place in terms of gross sales for all drugs losing exclusivity this year. Rituxan, Herceptin, and Avastin, all oncology drugs, accounted for about 43% of Roche's revenues. This is mindful of AbbVie’s loss of exclusivity on Humira, which accounts for more than half of its own annual revenues.
WIth that, how about a firm that is carrying a cash balance of about $33 billion, one that is also very familiar with acquisitions and their seamless integration, and with an established oncology portfolio? https://www.janssen.com/oncology/immune-therapy
J&J is splitting off its consumer products to focus on pharmaceuticals and medical devices because it wants to spend money on its growth areas, particularly in pharma. In fact, they are looking for acquisitions. For anyone interested in J&J's decision, here is an article... https://seekingalpha.com/article/4469672-j-and-j-a-blinding-flash-of-the-strategically-obvious
Just to be clear, this does not mean an acquisition of NWBO is the focus for any BP now. Rather, a partnership may be smart for many reasons, not the least of which is that it reduces associated risks.
Thanks for staying informed and keeping us updated. Not sure what you have seen but Dr. Reddy's had its generic approved last year and this is what was said...
The Sabril brand and generic had U. S. sales of approximately $141 million MAT for the most recent twelve months ending in December 2020 according to IMS Health.
No...
It was inferred that the journal would be the NEJM.
Management are following NEJM embargo rules verbatim which stipulate the journal must have media exclusivity with the exceptions being patient advocacy groups, scientific meetings, and government agencies.
Understanding inference is critical. What was said in the post? Was it stated that the authors submitted to NEJM? No, it was not! Rather, that NWBO is following a particular protocol. To be clear, that does not mean nor was it said that the journal submission was to NEJM. What can be inferred is that NWBO is making the best choice by following a rigorous protocol that would likely satisfy the parameters of other journals. Smart!
There Beaujolais wine is made to be drunk the year it is made. a light wine
Many thanks for the outstanding explanation...
Meirluc, my academic publication experience does not extend into the field of science, however, there are certain truisms that those who publish adhere to...
Always convey enough data to provide a convincing argument for your initial paper. But, where and when possible, retain enough "new" data that additional papers can be offered to the same periodical with the realization that the next iteration is less difficult, as you already established credibility on the topic and, despite any protestations to the contrary, the periodical is a captured audience willing and ready to publish once again.
This is an attempt to stuff BS into the narrative. Focus on the CEO and not the business. Well, the business remains healthy and is growing. Do I need to remind that Elite's revenues are 4x since 2019 and they are profitable? And their business will remain robust. Not because I think so but because of this...
Adderall Supply Delays Likely to Continue for 2-3 Months, Teva Says
FDA is now listing ADHD drug in shortage on its website. Six other companies also have Adderall in short supply, and pharmacies around the US are having trouble keeping the drug in stock, leaving patients scrambling to fill their prescriptions. The medicine enables people with ADHD to concentrate and focus at normal levels.
This post has so much nonsense in it, but this says it all...
My personal belief is a fear of scrutiny
As I am sure you are aware, Elite's IR is a contracted service and that is as it should be. There is not enough to have the drain on the budget. That means what gets put out is up to Nasrat. However, as you noted, no CEO can influence the share price by fiat (PRs).
Go with the Italian Barolo, a can't miss.
The Amalfi coast is amazing. Tuscany has so many good places to eat and wineries. Then there is Florence...ah, the Florentine Steak! TDF! And go to San Gimignano, special place. Paris is a must see, go to the 11th Arrondissement and, of course, the Louvre. Never been to the Riviera, seemed a bit too touristy. Did go to Verdun and some WW I battlefields. Pretty sobering. No pun intended.
Keep up the "scientific" research on wine. It's hard work, but someone has to do it!
Pace yourself and the questions will be answered.
Wine and food are why I love Italy, France, and Spain. They know that, with the exception of breakfast, wine is essential to a meal.
You are correct, it is those doing the submission who decide what journal they will pursue. In some cases the purpose is to submit to the highest scoring journal, in others it is merely to get published. Dr. Liau is an accomplished researcher and former Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Neuro-Oncology. She knows the game well and I would not be surprised if the Journal of Neuro-Oncology did not have a home team advantage.
Apparently it was adaptive, since this was published by 14 authors, including Dr. Linda Liau, in the journal of neuro-oncology and was, in fact, entitled: TMIC-16. TUMOR-INFILTRATING MYELOID CELLS MEDIATE ADAPTIVE IMMUNE RESISTANCE IN GLIOBLASTOMA
https://academic.oup.com/neuro-oncology/article/18/suppl_6/vi203/2543434
I will go with the 14 experts and the journal approval as evidence of ADAPTIVENESS. PERIOD!!!!
Thank you for confirming the point I have been making, that Elite's share price is being manipulated...
Ill stop shorting for a little while
A business executive understands how illogical this may appear...
The concern over ELTPs share price doesnt seem to be of interest to the CEO or the Board
You are spot on about Numbrino getting killed because of the pandemic. LCI was counting on it as a big add to revenues. They are also working on a couple of others but their cash drain and lack of increased revenues is killing them. Their decision to end the relationship with Elite was unsurprising, as they need to figure out how to better monetize all their assets, including their versions of IR & XR. And we really do not know the signals Elite gave them. Since Elite announced Kirkov just days after the announcement of the LCI termination, we may be underestimating how far ahead Nasrat was in the game.
Horse, thanks for the response and explaining your "stand up routine" in class, as it was a nice way to begin the day. But I have to ask, if it was a fine Bordeaux, can there really be "too much"?
On the other side of the comments...having gotten to the point where I teach what I learned, I make sure to let people know that one of our problems in business is that, all too often, we want people to color within the lines and adhere to structured thinking and some imagined rigorous process. Of course, that is how Groupthink and the Abilene Paradox take root. In truth, one can make an argument that drawing outside the lines and enabling creative thought is why NWBO is still moving the needle.
Nice work...
Aloha, Makai63...Good question...Since the quota belongs to Elite, I say go for it now, as it would "travel"...
i would suggest Jobs and Musk were true disruptive innovators. Gates was less a disruptor than someone who, with Balmer and a buddy, "appropriated" IBM IP. At best his was mimetic isomorphism.
As to your point...
This is a disruptive technology and the attempt to harness the implications is going to be very difficult unless a plan has been put in place and I think it has been
The theory of disruption predicts that when an entrant tackles incumbent competitors head-on, offering better products or services, the incumbents will attempt to accelerate their innovations to defend their business. Either they will beat back the entrant by offering even better services or products at comparable prices, or one of them will acquire the entrant.
Since there is an absolute certainty on the points presented against the positive NWBO narrative, please enlighten me with the list of companies that are the basis for this affirmation...
NAILED IT ON EVERY STOCK
I took a quick look and the DEA has adjusted the quotas for 2019-2020-2021, this year remains TBD. Here is what I see...
Medication Shortages
Issue:
DEA received many comments expressing general concerns that the proposed decreases to the production quotas of certain controlled substances may result in shortages of drug products containing those controlled substances.
DEA Response:
DEA is committed to ensuring an adequate and uninterrupted supply of controlled substances in order to meet the estimated legitimate medical, scientific, research, and industrial needs of the United States, for lawful export requirements, and for the establishment and maintenance of reserve stocks. DEA sets APQs in a manner to provide for all legitimate medical purposes.
Issue:
DEA received comments from three DEA-registered manufacturers regarding 13 different schedule I and II controlled substances, requesting that the proposed APQ for 5-MEO-DMT, d-amphetamine (for conversion), dexmethylphenidate (for sale), DMT, lisdexamfetamine, methadone, methadone intermediate, methylphenidate (for sale), noroxymorphone (for conversion), phenylacetone, psilocybin, psilocin, and remifentanil be established to sufficient levels to allow for manufacturers to meet medical and scientific needs.
Thanks for the thoughts and, before responding I have to say, I am envious of you being in Tahoe...as Credence Clearwater Revival sang...Fortunate Son!
Since I have you, let me ask what your thoughts are on that Seagen-Merck acquisition dance? After much discussion in the press, it still seems on hold. SGEN has acquired a company in the meantime and, interestingly, Merck is part of a UCLA trial with DCVAX-L? Y'a think they are getting a good look at NWBO? You bet and that is how many a partnership/M&A begins. What do you think?
Really?
no one cares
The quota system is managed by the DEA not the FDA!
This is key...
Increased production will lower costs.
tryn2, neither a partnership, alliance nor a joint venture require shareholder approval. They would be a BOD decision. M&A does require shareholder approval, after the BOD has given their approval.
A spin-off is a corporate strategy and I see no benefits of any spin-off from NWBO businesses, that would delete rather than accrete its value. As for the C-shares, I think that a partnership is exactly what they portend...and what I expect.
Thanks...I admit to trying to stop some of the guessing...