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The article focuses on the past and not the future. It's true that solar cannot compete, as yet, with established power sources such as hydro and nuclear. However one of the comments about solar only working in sunny climates is now wrong as, thanks to Natcore, black silicon will also work on cloudy days. Chuck Provimi has stated on many occasions that to expect solar to "suddenly" replace conventional power sources is the wrong approach to the issue. He expects that it will become equally cost effective in a few years and then power grids can be established as a bridge to doing away with fossil fuels i.e. coal. It is unlikely to ever replace hydro but it might replace nuclear energy in a few decades. Once it becomes cost effective, there might be a move to independent power supplies for homes and offices thereby relieving the burden on overworked existing energy sources. As the world becomes more populated there will be an ever increasing demand for power. Solar offers the opportunity to bring all parts of the world into the 21st century at at a fraction of the cost of establishing new hydro or nuclear power facilities.
Naysayers are tied into big oil and maintaining the status quo. Don't buy into their outdated arguments about solar power being a wasted experiment.
I think this is part of the plan to turn Greece (and maybe Spain) into a solar energy exporter to help offset their debt.
Would it be possible to post the letter? Thanks.
He does really well for his clients but I agree that he's missing the boat on this investment.
A few years down the road he'll be bragging about how he got into Natcore when it was only $10 a share!
Thanks for the name of the website. A lot of interesting articles. I was especially interested in the piece that explained why the subsidies were being cancelled i.e. the project was too successful and the country couldn't afford to subsidize all the installations.
I have a friend that is an investment counselor with well over a billion dollars in his portfolio. He's a very smart guy and warned me about the crash in 2008 two years before it happened. He is convinced solar is dead and the future is natural gas. However he didn't know the true reason behind cancellation of the solar subsidies, the projects in Siberia, Greece's plans to become a solar power exporter or that Natcore was on the cusp of changing the face of solar power. He is typical of the wall street mentality that thinks of alternative energy as junk science. Hopefully Natcore will deliver on its promises and it will be my turn to say "told ya!"
IF Natcore can get black silicon into the markets this year and start that ball rolling, it will validate their technology and get the industry focused on them as the "go to"company for new developments. Based on comments by Provimi, Natcore could start working on R2R asap if funding was in place for the Kodak equipment already on site. I'm not saying they could be ready to "roll out" the thin film panels in the near future, but they would have a significant advantage over the competition.
There hasn't been any word from Natcore about the progress in a tandem cell but I suspect a lot of that has to do with the focus on black silicon getting to market. It wouldn't surprise me to hear some news on that front later this year.
Thanks for the info. On the bright side the problems facing a lot of better known solar companies coupled with what appears to be a big, pent up demand for cheap solar power will act as a catalyst for an explosion in SP for a solar company that can deliver on its promises. IF Natcore gets it's foot in the door within the next few months, it might get blown off it's hinges next year.
I just read the article(s) on the plan to turn Greece into Europe's power supplier to pay off its debt. An aggressive move and it seems not everyone is on board 1.e. Spain who is also looking into becoming a solar exporter. However the really good news is that a lot of nations are seriously looking at solar as a replacement for conventional power from coal, oil and gas which means that solar energy companies are about to make a huge comeback; especially those with the product that is a "gamechanger"
On another front a lot of analysts predict that tech stocks as a whole are really undervalued and should be a good investment this summer and will surge in 2013.
Keep the faith!!
Unfortunately the investment does not include Natcore. I think we are still a little away from playing in the big leagues when it comes to mega million dollar solar projects. However give the company some time and its technology will be at the top of the list.
I disagree, but everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Does anyone know if Natcore has set up a new company to sell the chemicals needed to make the AR box work? Provimi said that was the plan a few months ago. Some insight on its progress (or lack thereof) would give us an indication of the timeline to profitability.
$5-6 per share works out to about $84,000,000 in annual sales, before expenses. That's an unlikely target in 18 months. There are a lot of hurdles to overcome just to get the first sale and given the strategy for profit, licensing fees and sales of chemicals, I don't see gross profit of anything that high for a long time. However it wouldn't surprise me to see gross profit of one-quarter of that in the same time frame. The P/E ratio will be dependent on a lot of factors beyond the company's control but I would expect at least 8-10 in a fair market and possibly up to your figure if we ever return to the pre 2007 era.
So in my own humble opinion I think the SP would be around $12-$15 IF things go according to plan.
P.S. The foregoing is just for the black silicon. R2R as a reality or a dramatic breakthrough in production of a viable black tandem cell would significantly escalate the SP.
I read an article on the Twin Creek system that said it would take 1.5 million wafers to generate 6 megawatts of power. I presume that means 250,000 wafers to generate 1 megawatt. If our machine can generate 2000 wafers an hour that should translate to 125 hours to create 1 megawatt. I have no idea how long it takes a conventional furnace to manufacture the same amount of cells.
I'm in the middle on the timing on the "tool". I don't think it is a prototype that will not be in production for several months but it seems clear that it won't be ready for sale in less than 2-3 months. I believe we are in a holding pattern on the SP for at least 2 months, barring any spectacular news on a partner for R2R or something similar.
I also agree that appointing a director of operations is a meaningful step in the right direction.
I had similar thoughts about the timing of the deal. IF black silicon is going to replace conventional solar cells, it makes sense to use them on the next mega project. I don't know a lot about the location in Siberia where the array will be installed but I doubt it gets as much sunlight as "classic" venues for this kind of installation. The properties of etched black silicon seems to be perfect for a northern location that might get lots of sunlight in the summer but little in the winter when power demands are higher.
There is also the issue of a tandem cell being commercially available in two years or so (Dr. Barron's estimate) which might also factor into Natcore's involvement.
I agree with a lot of your comments about the SP. Given the current economy, $10 seems realistic at some point in the next two years. However that will still be contingent on a lot of factors like sales, R2R getting off the ground and a realistic, commercially viable, tandem cell. Hold in there and be patient, you will be rewarded.
Given the company's stated goals i.e. making money from royalties and sales of the chemicals, I'm not certain the massive IPO would ever materialize. However I do think they will list on Nasdaq once the SP is at the minimum levels and they meet the other financial requirements. Once listed there will be a healthy bump as it gets more coverage and the brokerage houses are permitted to invest in the company. If all goes well and the timing is right, it could go somewhat above the $10 mark.
I acknowledge that there is no timeline from Natcore about sales in 2-3 months. However Provimi did say that they were expecting to produce panels in 4-6 weeks and all that was necessary was installation of the "tool" in the AR box. I agree it will take some time to fine tune the process but Provimi made it sound like it wouldn't take too long to have the "prototype" ready. He also said that the interested parties wanted a reflectance of no more than 1.8% and they have blown that number out of the water. Frankly i thought we had until August to meet some of these technical timelines and if that date has been accelerated so should the end result. Once the working panels are produced by the AR box there shouldn't be any impediments to sales. I expect that a lot of the "sales" work has already been done and things should go quickly once the box is fully functional; hence the 2-3 month (admittedly optimistic) timeline.
The penny stock investors looking for a quick buck will sell off their holdings and the SP will probably drop a bit from the recent highs. Do not be dismayed if it goes back down to to the .40 something range as everyone left will be in for the long haul and will see the fruits of their patience over the next 3-9 months. Should sales of the AR box and materials materialize in the next 2-3 months as forecast the SP will climb back over a dollar. After reaching that milestone things should get interesting as there will be more developments on the tandem cell and R2R, which can only enhance the value of the stock.
Yeah, I thought about it and came to the conclusion they are referring to the etching tool needed to make the special modifications to a cell to absorb more of the sunlight. That has to be incorporated into the AR box and that is what they meant by refining it in their lab before selling the unit. Hopefully there won't be any problems in that regard.
Really great news but a little surprised that Natcore "is working with two equipment manufactures to produce a tool to make the cells". What about the AR box? Wasn't that it's purpose? does anyone have any insight on this "tool"? I suppose it isn't a real problem because Provimi has gone on record as saying 4-6 weeks and if he doesn't deliver in at least 8-10 weeks he and Natcore will lose all credibility.
Leaving negative thoughts aside we seem to be on the right track and I can't wait for June when sales should be rolling in and the SP start to rocket upwards.
I've bought enough stock so a drop in the SP doesn't excite me. At the beginning of this year I set a quasi deadline of the end of the second quarter to see some increase in the share price or at least some positive news i.e. contracts for sales of the AR box or the black silicon cells; although if I read the reports correctly the black cells will not be ready for sale before the end of the year at the earliest. As I am in way too deep I may have to hang in there a little longer.
A large part of the problem is the industry as a whole. NO ONE of any significance believes that solar will become a viable stock to hold until some company like Natcore actually has a ready to market product that is so superior and delivers on the promise of competing with other forms of energy that we all have to have it. That is probably 8-16 months away (based on the company's current timelines) barring some major developments. I think the most we can hope for in the next 3-6 months is a test panel being installed and performing as expected; which in turn should lead to major coverage and then sales late this year or early in 2013.
There may be other announcements about further technical improvements or progress in the tandem cell but that won't bring any increase in the SP. Only a working panel produced with their process at a significant cost saving will get any interest in this stock.
Just MHO TEQ.
I couldn't hear the "report" but 99.7% seems like a major breakthrough. What I'm not clear on is whether the report says Natcore currently has a black cell of that ability or expects to achieve that milestone "in the near future". If they can manufacture it now, why no sales? Can anyone fill me in on whether it's reality or "puffery".
Do you have inside information that could confirm that the company is "in negotiations" or are you just trying to belittle someone else to make yourself look important.
Not a mind reader but I do read the posts and articles on Natcore. ALL of that information says that the company is not yet ready to market the black silicon cell; they seem to have abandoned the traditional cell in favor of the black cell and the other applications i.e. R2R and a tandem cell are years from reality. My comments regarding things being still too "experimental" were about the AR box and the black cell and I stand by them.
I'm a little leery of releasing the name as I don't want anyone to think I'm "pimping" it just to get a boost in the SP. It's on the TSX Venture. Just look at the lithium companies on that exchange at .265 (today's price) and do some research on companies that hold property in the U.S. and Argentina and I'm sure you will find it. To further assist, the company just got approval to do additional drilling on it's U.S. property. Good luck.
It appears that there won't be any big announcement in the short term. The company is still looking for partners and "the availability of funding". It's possible that there will be ongoing negotiations but apparently the "visitors" weren't sufficiently impressed with what they saw to jump on the bandwagon. Probably due in large measure to the sentiments expressed yesterday i.e. money is tight and no one wants to invest in anything other than a sure thing. That tells me that despite all the hype the process is either still too experimental with less than prefect results; the cost isn't competitive with existing factories; or Chuck is asking for too much in royalties.
Change is always threatening and a complete overhaul of a time tested process might also scare off some investors. I still believe in the process but obviously it has some flaws or sales of the AR box would be happening as we speak. Hopefully Br. Barron can focus on whatever problems exist and get this turned around in a few months.
BTW it would be nice to get some update from the company even if it's just some technical info i.e. the status of the black cells sent to Arizona and whether they have optimized the depth of the connections etc.
Nacore isn't alone in being vastly undervalued. A lot of really good companies with vast potential are being ignored. I hold a lithium mining stock that is 18-20 months away from production with sales expected to be over a billion dollars and, due to recovery and sales of potash as a side product, will have no real costs. In other words, once in production virtually all sales are profit. Despite that fact, the SP is about .27 cents. 18 months ago it was almost a dollar.
The market has lost faith in anything other than a company with hard assets and positive cash flow. Safe but little upside.
It's tough to hang in there when you hear a lot of promises but little action. However this technology really can make a huge difference to solar energy; and make the owners very rich. A little luck might be needed (contracts, financing etc) but if/when it happens we should all be very happy.
Hiring 6-8 people is encouraging as that suggests some increased business activity. You don't increase your overhead if things aren't going well or look to become stagnant.
More staff might also signal an acceleration of research into development. A small step but a positive one.
Strange comments for someone playing the penny stocks. We are all capitalists at heart otherwise we would not be looking for a profit on our investment.
Still, some truth to the philosophy that you have to squeeze the grape to get the juice. I for one like wine more than the grape.
Heard it before; but where's the beef? Why does Natcore, a "success story" have to look overseas for funding when the NREL has access to venture capitalists? There's a huge disconnect somewhere.
BTW this is not a whine.I firmly believe some positive news is on the way.
I agree that the article suggests that they are still "working out the bugs". However it sounds like they are very close and expect to have it on the market much sooner than later. It also sounds like they believe they can achieve a 19% effiency which is greater than the first estimates which placed it at less than 18%. That makes it a lot more attractive to potential buyers.
It will be interesting to find out what happened to the R2R talks this month. Hopefully we will get a double dose of good news.
More good points. I was basing my belief in sales milestones on the August timeline with comments (that I cannot find at this time) that the company expects sales of the AR box "soon" i.e. this quarter.
Having re read a number of posts It appears that the meetings this week may be as much ,or more, about financing development of R2R as sales of the boxes. Therefore we shouldn't take silence as bad news about the AR box or pushing black silicon into production.
I agree with a lot of your comments. However I believe that the "visitors" have a pretty good idea of the costs involved and to be saved from implementing the AR box. I suspect the technical data has already been sent to them and they have tested samples of the cells and therefore the purpose of the meeting is to discuss the nitty gritty of either financing a larger operation or another JV.
That's not to say that a deal can be struck quickly, but I don't see it taking months to get it done given the timelines with NREL.I believe they have monetary milestones in their licensing agreement which calls for something by the middle of the year and that means sales starting in the second quarter; which means a deal before the end of March.
It would be nice for management to either dispel the rumors or at least give us some clarification of the status of the meetings. However, as others have noted, no PR after a meeting is hardly surprising. I didn't anticipate any news until the end of this week at best and more likely next week.
No deal of any kind would be very surprising and signal something is wrong with the product. That would be hard to accept seeing as how the NREL gave them an exclusive license for the black cells. One can only presume that NREL looked at a lot of other, potential, licensees and came to the conclusion that Natcore was the best shot to market the product. If there are no takers it must be because Natcore isn't willing to part with the patents or something similar and that means they might have to get funding elsewhere to build their own factories. A scary proposition but IF they could get enough capital it might make them the next First Solar.
Interesting post. I agree with a lot of your comments with some slight disagreement over revenue. It depends on how you evaluate a start up company and their potential sales. Some investors look at the cash reserves and income statements as the biggest criteria in making an investment. Too much red ink and they stay away in droves. Those are called "value investors" and look long term. With a penny stock most people are looking to make money with large volume and small upswings and aren't looking at value.
However a stock with "disruptive" technology is looking to dominate a market and that means huge sales. Therefore revenue from sales is the indicator the investors are looking for to validate their faith in the decision to hold long. A lot of start up companies with "the next big thing" never get off the ground for one reason or another but usually its financing. Yes, sales mean a large capital investment in infrastructure and that can mean problems for most startups. However Natcore's business model is different as the risk of capital is modest in relation to the revenues from licensing the process. Therefore in this case I believe revenue is a good thing as it puts the balance sheet into the black and really sells the stock to new investors. JMHO
"Trying to get his arms around the company" At .47 a share that shouldn't be too hard for his "high net worth investors".
However, all kidding aside, we are now hearing a very different tune from the company than last year. I think Natcore has finally realized, as a lot of us said in the past, that they needed a large amount of capital to pull off their plans and while that might dilute the equity and share value in the very short term, it will bring a lot of attention to the company and let them push ahead with commercialization of their process. I also imagine the licensing deal with NREL has some impact on their decision to get comfy with the 800 lb Gorilla and move as fast as possible to get some revenue on the books. The next few months should be very interesting.
Hard to get any more government money for solar from the bureaucrats after Solyndra. However Venture capital firms like Blackrock could fund it out of spare change. I've never understood why some of the larger ones that specialize in tech stocks haven't taken a hard look at the company. All I can think of is that they want too big a piece of the pie and management is afraid they would lose control.
However it now sounds like Natcore is aware they are on the edge of not getting anything to market without a large infusion of capital and despite prior concerns about 800 pound gorillas' in the room have decided to bite the bullet and give up some equity/licensing fees in exchange for a stream of revenue. I'm not keen at all on seeing the jobs move overseas but so long as the lab and ultimate control of the process/patents is in the U.S. we should be o.k. And on the plus side a move overseas to India, for example, would make it easier to get started without all the f'ng red tape in the states.
Last point. Nothing succeeds like success. If Natcore proves they have a winning product then I suspect American investors will beat a path to their door for new products i.e. the tandem cell or a new application in semiconductors.
The rant is old news and uninformative. Similar feelings were voiced here in January that lead to JB giving up his job as a moderator of the board. I've also expressed my frustration at missed dates but really, there isn't any profit in it for the management to spin garbage as the stock price drops and their own investment goes down the toilet. The NREL license was supposed to have been wrapped up in mid 2011 but the delay wasn't their fault. The lab took WAY longer to set up than anyone thought was reasonable but we aren't privy to the true reasons for the delay and might have had a lot to do with getting the black box into the AR box. It would also appear that, as they were setting things up, new advancements were being proposed that caused them to constantly adjust the AR box to meet these new demands. However everything now looks to be in place to proceed at a faster pace.
I'm still "looking over their shoulder" but truly believe there should be some positive news about a new JV or a firm contract for one or more AR boxes by the Spring. My own deadline isn't March but June. If nothing has developed by that time and we are getting the same spin then I agree it's game over for Natcore.
Kodak has a patent on thin solar cell batteries? Does anyone know if the patent utilizes Natcore's technology; or if the issue is using the nanotube LPD process to make it more affordable? Very interesting.
Meetings about structuring and potential financial ventures? I suppose if the meetings are with respect to the Kodak R2R venture then that is encouraging. Hopefully there will be some sales of the current technology as well.
A political move to force congress to either concede to his request or refuse to pass the bill and show America that the Republicans are in the pocket of Big Oil and don't care about the environment; or creating new jobs. Nice if it happened but I'm not holding my breath.
Now that is the kind of information I can get my head around. It explains the delays and maps out the next few (3-6) months without any specific timetable that might not be met and frustrate the shareholders. I expect they couldn't discuss the issues around the "black box" in public until completion. Frankly it is a very smart move and should reassure those of us who weren't real comfortable with the thought of someone stealing the patents or ideas and cutting out Natcore from the profits.
Also nice to hear that there are 4 potential buyers of the box that might step up to the plate this quarter. I had also wondered about the sale of the chemicals and feel reassured that Natcore will maximize the profit from that branch of the company.
all in all this is a much better summary of the progress and upcoming developments than the Chairman's letter. Thanks Chuck!