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Strange, TLT making some big down bars on 1 min
SPX printing reverse doji so far, doallr has been building up some steam over past hour. Could get ugly if this extends
BT, Getting ready to tag that upper trend line on your 1 minute
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&i=p43101084408&a=142910187&r=989
BT, well in the face of this move up doesn't seem to me like the vix & tot willing to give it up as yet...so may be a good bet
Agree RCKS, but watching TLT, .DXY, Semis, RIO, FCX etc and they look to be supportive of at least a small pull back on 1 min. As well as a flag like we are swing on some of the charts continues to move on low vol it can often fall on its on weight (so to speak). That said, seeing way too many divergences in charts I track to make call here but tend to be nominally on the side that says we are temporarily overbought (and vix/vxx at such high levels -- and not cracking' makes me nervous that there is more downside to come in at least the shorter term. Seeing some interesting upside vol/price action in BAC at the moment. At any rate, very tough to call here... I can see where we would push higher, but market needs more conviction if we are to move from SPX at approx 1205 to say 1208-1210 (and hold). Right now looks weak in that regard...but often, like you have seen where these trading programs just push higher into resistance and take all of our money...
Setting aside pre-market and early action...I would say this is a pathetic sell off on low volume so we are likely to bounce here to some degree. As for instance, 24M in vol on IWM/Russell where vol on 90 day is 72M and on 10 day 118M.
So thinking that this points at least to a modest bounce up today/tomorrow (but still very bearish here until we see some conclusive price action that retakes last weeks ugly's acton).
Regardless if we get into Friday's lows and melt down from there will turn much more bearish in short term. Right now thinking we bounce a bit. Not sure how long it lasts though. And of course as I write this we are melting down a bit at a time...so my comments may be OBE (and not worth anything) as I post this....
yep sd...I'm with you...Its easy to see a reversal here on news like this...but lots of upside resistance and I'm particularly looking at the 1155-57 area. Overall sentiment still stinks and underlying technical indicators to me say that bearish trend is not quite over (even though we may see some upside here).
sdpro --
Currencies overnight so far aren't gong crazy here...so thinking this is a topping pattern on Gold and Silver.
On other hand, despite the idea that this isn't like 2008...it seems to me that these automated programs as well as institutions are treating it like it could be. So better to be careful, but thinking that soon we could get a nice payoff to upside due to all the stupidity of this move down.
But a nice payoff here soon is to short Gold & Silver.... Basically the whole thing seems overdone here, not saying we won't test some lower levels on S&P (whether now or later) but at some point even these automated programs will say this is BS.... Mike
I'm wondering whether we will see a reversal here. The fact that rebels now seem to have our 'bud' "Moe-ee-mar khaddafi" hostage (spelling suspect in many languages...) is normally a bad sign despite how bad he is. But, I'm thinking that in short term this will look to be a positive.
Egypt and other North Africa & Middle East Countries are giving many of us folks hope that these folks will emerge from the barbarian centuries (of course in the US we seem to be moving in their direction).
Regardless, this a net plus. That said..the technical suck here if you are a bull. So looking to sell any rebound here even though I'm a tad long here versus short. Very difficult here so haven't much money out here because of that. Mike
Big/Teacake--Tend to agree on Philly Fed and how we may react here. Just that often these Gov't (and even public) figures/estimates can be outlier events. So this may suggest trouble in short to mid term but not sure as yet that I would rely too much on the the figure by Philly Fed (but its hard for me to ignore a Fed regional player's input). So we will have to see how this pans out as we get more data. Bad data nonetheless and we have to pay attention to it. Mike
Inverted Hammers on lower del vol showing up on indices. Often a sign that we could poplin short term. But seeing very mixed signals overall so waiting here to see how this trades out at close and early next week
I have a thought here or two.... Its that this is a total bullish_t move we've have seen over past two weeks or so and especially last 2 days.
My thinking is that we may have more downside here in short term but very close to "retracement" to to upside. Not sure that move back up will be long lasting (i.e, may be another short term fluctuation until we work our way-out of this). So bought some TMV here (3x short of TLT).
Must say though paying much attention to posts on "3 peaks and doomed house" and others related to OEX levels, BT's target of 1000 or so on SPX, etc.
So mid to long term I'm very skeptical here on an extended move up.
Just seems in short term that there is a fair amount of exhaustion here (which may take another couple of days to play out, but may be some opportunities here on shorting vix, going long TNA, picking up MCP, etc). Not sure so just picked up a bit of TNA yesterday and some TMV and TYH today. May buy MCP if it looks like it is stabilizing/testing support on lower vol with technicals showing some positive divergence. Mike
MossyOak- I have SPX 1138. Seeing a fair amount of bear flags -- looks like we will test the days lows. Suspecting though we may undercut that low sometime before close. Volume though not overwhelming to downside (so we maybe setting up for a pop tomorrow) but other technical measures look terrible and not necessarily ready to turn yet. Selling begets selling so we could see some nasty acceleration. So appreciate that dialogue earlier and other day about sharp sell offs and downside forks and normally better to wait a bit....
Interesting take on the Weekly SPX from Tom on TTF Board. Mike
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=p48739235643&a=121930596&r=5361
Oh I should have said 'if we weaken further intraday" on that last comment. I see no reason to test yesterday's lows (that should be an extreme). But perhaps 1190 ish.
re: TLT. I thought yesterday we would see TLT top out. Looks today like we pushed to a higher high...and now into the Aug 9-10 action that got up to 109 or so. Thinking like you that this is topping out near here,. Got near 107 today. Could push into 107.50 (just in looking at some of the lows/resistance areas from Aug 9-10that looks like it could be a possibility). My caveat here is that although volume is backing off here the daily stochastics on XLF, IWM still very weak(less that 40) and indicating that selling pressure still persists. So I would like to see some good price action to upside today/tomorrow to negate that weakness and turn around the sentiment... This could be one of those OEs that doesn't conform to the normal pump up into Friday. Thinking though we should find support at or near yesterday's lows in market and then make another run up. Mike
400 MA on weekly at 1212. Looks like today's high got just underneath that (approx 1209) and backed off. 89 EMA looks to be at 1215. Not sure they are providing resistance or just logical stopping points based on other resistance areas in same area. Here is your weekly with 400 MA I was looking at from previous post.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&i=p65686650580&a=133174569&r=6179
At moment watching TLT pop some.
BT, thx. Very instructive. Love those multiple fork lines. My thinking is that could go either way but if we can get some fast action to upside then technicals will very quickly right themselves (MACD, Stochs, ADX etc). So tend to think buy the pull back here, just not entirely clear to me. So trying to be patient until clearer signal. Today seems like it observed the script, but technicals left in a bit of a mixed/weak state. Actually I would prefer to see a more of a pull back and then see vix,TLT etc have declining volume on the pull back.
Overall, this looks like a classic "V" type bottom where you get the dizzying signals (kind of like reported instrumentation problems over the Bermuda Triangle). So my sense is that we will get a few more violent swings here until market gets its bearings correct....or "re-situated" (not likely a real word..). Right now seeing .dxy spike some on Asia open. Interesting....
Also, We get PPI data tomorrow. That often can have a modest to medium short term impact to pre-market. My sense is that we should see decreases in PPI (note also that we see CPI along with Continuing Claims on Thurs -- so a fair amount of data this week).
But not sure how much recent commodity deflation has caught up with these indicators. One thing to watch for is actually a very negative spike in these figures this month or next. Could point to added recessionary pressures. I would think a Core PPI within range of expectations or a bit low would be bullish (forecast is for PPI to rise .1% and core PPI to rise .2%). But if a very sharp decline then I would think that is a big negative especially with France & Germany having flat GDP. Seems though this market is beat up enough so kind of expecting some wild volatility but staying within current short to mid term trends you have marked out.
2 Bit- Yep kept an eye on OEX all day. I have a close of 538.03. We bounced at 1180 on SPX, and 60 min chart tested and bounced off of 20 ema. But very mixed overall. I like that we held support, but thinking we will see overnight markets stressed some. So closed longs. That said, some of the financials look close to retesting support on declining volume so will be watching that to see if they can get any traction over next day or two. Semiconductors look strong overall, JDSU reports after market tomorrow. If semi's hold up NVDA may a good one to watch.
thx much
Back above 20 ema on 60 min chart. Nice candle so far. We'll see if it holds into the close. Mike
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=18&i=p23445557188&a=80568870&r=7804
Nice chart sd... Always interesting stuff from that zero hedge site, will have to monitor that more often.
I went ahead and sold TZA as it got into that $48-48.50 and turned around and bought TNA for a quickie. Thinking the snap back here on SPX should get back into the 1190-94 area then will have to evaluate there (if it makes there). Mike
Agree sdpro...but we still have a couple of hours left in day... RIO held $60 and SMH just got a fair amount of vol (at approx 29.20 on SMH after tagging $29)... Could be a trap for us bears....
BT, thinking we are close here to stabilizing. I had 1181-83 as the area we had to hold (and 53 on Qs). I see on your one minute that 1180 was good area to test. Otherwise if we break & hold yesterday's low (which I think was 1178, then all bets off...)
Mer-kozy... Here are their comments and follow-up comment by me.
Sarkozy: France and Germany to propose Euro zone econ council, says France, Germany are absolutely determined to defend the Euro
Merkel says Eurozone countries must respect new fiscal rules and debt limits, european commission needs stronger powers on fiscal rules
Sarkozy says France, Germany to propose in September a new tax on financial transactions
He also said no way Europe can do eurobonds until much much later (and would need a much tighter eurozone integration over time to pull it off).
Basically, a negative that no eurobonds to be pushed...but they had been saying this. Euro-council a plus in my view (but not what market would like to hear).
Overall a negative from a fundamental standpoint (but this could just bleed itself off after we test support). Not sure, right now it looks like a good excuse for a pull back.
Oh, one other thing, China announced yesterday that they were going to make moves to appreciate the yuan against the dollar (longer term likely a plus for developed nation like US & Europe. Mike
A lot of wild moves back and forth on TLT etc. They propose eurozone council and tax to support it within 6 months... but eurozone wouldn't necessarily be operative right away as I understand it. Markets seem to be selling the news after a nice pop...but this hasn't shaken out entirely yet so hesistant to stand behind that statement at the moment... Need to watch a bit more I think
USD/Swiss Frank (see link below, but not sure it will come up for non subscribers)
Waiting: 10-yr: +17/32..2.257%..USD/JPY: 76.72..EUR/USD: 1.4410
The foreign exchange complex remains quiet ahead of the high anticipated and most likely much ado about nothing meeting between French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel. The dollar index recently slumped to the 74.00 level as traders pare back risk while EURUSD trades down 45 pips in the middle of today's range ahead of the forthcoming announcement from the two European leaders. USDCHF has reversed course during the session and is now higher by 70 pips at .7910. If the pair is able to hold this level it will see its best close since July 28. GBPUSD has ticked up to session highs in recent trade and hovers near 1.6420. Participants remain focused on the 1.6450 level as a breakout may result in a test of the May highs
http://www.briefing.com/common/images/content/pagecontent/BondMarketUpdate/20110816113746816chf.JPG
sdpro...Have a concern about the state/local downgrades too if they come....would add downside pressure I think in the very short term to market. However, haven't much time to think about the relative longer term impact to market... Thinking we should be able to get a heads up buy watching yields on various bonds as well as the typical ones we watch like RIO, APPL, TNA/TZA etc
re: Link for Italy -- Thx Big will add that to my list.... Seems to me this is a most important indicator as well as Spain. Mike
Jerry, Big, etc (re: Italy, Spain etc)
Some comments on you folks back & forth I see in some of the posts.
Note some comments on Fundamentals below (but one thought is don't solely rely on Spain/Italy news here).
-A thought or two on charts first: Haven't had time to look at charts much tonight: But the ones I'm most interested in here in assessing tomorrow/next day--
1--RIO & Copper of course...
2--Russell (IWM/TNA/TZA). Russell like emerging markets often can lead on way up and down.
3--EEM/SSEC (Emerging Markets)....Brazil down something like 25% (this ought to be about done if I'm correct here). Shanghai seems like it is starting to react less and less on news so may be signaling an end is near. Haven''t thoroughly checked chart though.
4--10 yr treasuries (we could move here in time to 2-2.5% yield...which could be approaching a bottom). But fact yield declining below 3% means to me that the markets are more worried over recession coming and all recent political uncertainty as well as S&P downgrade wording re-enforces that. Downgrade to me is only important for that reason (I don't see a sell off purely on the S&P downgrade)
5--Gold/Silver....where is logical topping out point in a worst case sell off this week?
6--Oil: Where is logical Bounce area?
7--APPL: Where is worst case selloff point and short of that a logical bounce area? AAPL should be one of the "Generals" to watch among others... Normally turns much earlier than most...
Fundamentals--
1---Fed meeting is Tue/Wed: I would watch this...if they still say no QE3 (and language is not vague about it)....Then I'm not sure this fully priced in.
2---Italy/Spain "news"....I think there is a 70-75% chance that Europe can address the Italy/Spain issues longer term. I know this is contrarian thinking.... However, until the ECB can get buy-in from the Finance minsters in Germany, France etc., then what we have seen in the past often is short covering on these news events (then another sell off soon). That is, the news basically right now is that they will buy the Italy/Spain bonds...and they are considering a "Euro Bond".
BUT.... My recollection here is that these finance offices in the various Euro countries may be on call...but largely on vacation. So any news may just be the ECB chattering, with no definitve buy-in as yet. So without an emergency 2-3 day Euro meeting on the matter -- then normally you would think about shorting the news short to mid term. If they get called into an emergency meeting on the matter, then that is something to watch.
---Summary...Fundamentals/events/uncertainty to me are saying that its unlikely that we will a definitive bottom here in market Monday (so market may have more risk to downside...). Will be watching charts above for technical confirmation one or the other (on my thinking here). I may assess things fundamentally...but its a separate process, and if one in dispute with the other Technicals always rule...)
re: VIX...Thx Big I really appreciate thee data points you dig out. Mike
Thx skidstreet..appreciate the look at this one. Nasty today. We'll have to see if mkts stabilize or just fold here I guess.
Awesome Silver Surfer. Agree with the sentiment, Having trouble pulling up the youtube video but maybe my iMac is tired So will try later. Still pay attention to what Generic says...he's not very far off much of the time. Well worth taking his thoughts & analysis into consideration IMHO. Mike
Thx Generic. I'm not sure I still understand your point but appreciate your clarification. Will look into and see if I can support your point of view here. Which I think is important since you post infrequently...but normally have important things to say. Thx, Mike
I'm so with you 2bit. I do appreciate the fork analysis, elliot wave etc on this board but I really like your take on this stuff. All you need is a ruler (and a magic marker). Yes if you follow channels and trend lines -- even if there are more sophisticated tools out there - its all you really need.
Generic. I', m confused on your post. Today we printed a very nice reversal candle similar to what we did in July 2010. We went up after that and then retested -- could see that here too. Did I misread your comment?
I'm with you Orecal. Thx for your support of our buddy here ...Jerry
Jerry...I've been right too despite my struggles & hobbling leg that got all those stitches. But totally Great call. And I was saying same just a day ago...but you nailed this more cleanly than I.
Much appreciated the analysis you gave on this. It allowed me to stick it out and today to reallocate my wife's John Hancock 401k from all cash to a mixture of High yield Bonds, Sci & Tech (T Rowe price fund), Mid cap value and REITS....
So I think if I didn't quite time this right..But I think in the ball park.
And your various posts over past two days (as well as BTs persistent updates) helped greatly.
Much thanks Jerry O'brien...son of the the great Tom O'brien on TFNN (LOL of course Jerry - I know you two are both in Florida as I remember and I think you are the better of the two O'briens even though I do like him).
Good Luck and keep up your acerbic but thoughtful analysis. I really do appreciate it. Mike
SWC Chart.
Man..You folks have been busy...
Thought though I'd pass along a chart that Tom on TTF board just updated on SWC that I talked about a week or so ago.
There are a lot of nice reversals out there so not necessarily advocating this above others... But it does look finally to be printing a reversal after the dilution they saw to their shares (on a buyout as I remember in pas few weeks). So I would encourage caution, but the sell off in this Platinum/Palldium may be finally over. Comments welcome. Mike
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SWC&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p80219759596&a=206914400&r=2214
Generic... I must say this waxing poetic for you. Good stuff though I must say. Thx