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AVCI
FWIW, I covered 1/2 of my AVCI short yesterday at around 11.80 and the other half this morning at around 11.20. I think it goes much lower over time, and might look to re-short it on strength.
MM
New Board?
I'd vote no to this idea, Nosleep. I have trouble keeping up with all of the VMC spin-off boards, as it is. I sometimes forget/neglect to check one of these boards for awhile, and then find that I've missed something that could have been profitable as a result. The more boards there are, the more likely that is to happen.
And really these plays fall naturally within the range of this board- there's really no need for an entirely new board just for this relatively small subset of plays imho.
MM
AVCI/Researcher
"of course those July ACJ calls come with $2 dividend attached"
I seem to be confused. I see mention of a special divvy here
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070531/20070531005104.html?.v=1
But I don't see how that would affect my play. Can you enlighten me?
TIA
MM
AVCI/Researcher
I completely agree with your analysis, Researcher, and think that AVCI is a compelling short here.
I'm short the common at 12.49 and also sold a few July 12.50 calls for 1.65.
MM
LPHI/Wade
Louis Navellier pumped LPHI last night in his Quantum Growth newsletter. It has a large following and no doubt that recommendation has a lot to do with today's action. I'd consider taking some profits today or soon, as we're likely to see a pullback after the pump runs its course imho.
MM
Researcher/IBD EPS scores
This comment (from a hedgie friend of mine, who has been playing IBD for years) probably explains why SIF's EPS is so low
"Normally any negative quarters in the last 3-4 years will cap it at a 75 EPS score."
MM
FNI/CL
"Where do I find the AMG comments?"
I just took BEB's word for this.
Here's some more from BEB on FNI
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4923&mn=11703&pt=msg&mid=2375671
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4923&mn=11483&pt=msg&mid=2362030
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4923&mn=11450&pt=msg&mid=2360521
MM
AFSI
I sold out my remaining AFSI at 15.51 for decent profits just now. It might still go on to the IBD #1 spot and big gains, but I'm pretty bearish on the broad market right now and I'm very unimpressed that the stock struggled so much with the market rocking out this week. So moving on for now...
MM
AFSI
I just added some AFSI at 15.16. I loved how it traded yesterday, holding up well against that horrendous market meltdown. I think that it's likely to close over 15 today and if that happens I'd be very surprised if I can't sell over 16 by Monday (I'm hoping to exit at least some of the trading shares closer to 17).
MM
AFSI-
I should clarify that AFSI's Relative Strength score is 97 at the moment and, to have a chance at #1, it would have to move up to 99. But, if it makes the list this week, I think that will likely happen- because the stock should move up nicely as the momentum buyers pile in by the end of the week.
MM
AFSI/IBD play
Bought a bunch of AFSI at 14.96, for an IBD play. If AFSI ends this week over 15, I believe that it may be the new IBD #1. if that happens, the stock should make a very big run imho.
MM
CTIB
I covered via limit order at 5.10
(foolishly. LOL)
Big thanks to Hweb and Researcher for a terrific call out here.
CTIB: Researcher, Hweb
Thanks for the call-out here, guys. This play looks really good to me, and I joined you short at 7 (would add for roughly every .15 up)
It surprises me that the bad Q report isn't priced in already, in light of the filing..but it certainly doesn't appear to be (I suppose because it was sort of "hidden" at the bottom of the 10Q?). Have you seen plays like this work well in the past?
Researcher/NGA
Yes, I think that's extremely unlikely. I thought that the stock would go over 20 (and had a real shot at 25-plus). But I figured it would take a month or more to happen, as IBD takes that long to move new entrants into the top 10 (which is a big catalyst). Now the stock only has a few weeks at most to run on IBD momo before the split (assuming it makes the list at all, which I'm now guessing it won't)..which probably isn't long enough for it to get to 22.50(or even close) imho
MM
NGA/Researcher
Yes, they'll list them as long as they close a week over 15 before the split happens. But now IBD players will know that the stock won't last long on the list even if makes it, and it will also never go above #10 on the list imho (IBD has taken to making stocks hang around on the list for about a month before moving them up into the top 10).
NGA could still be a decent long on IBD anticipation imho, but I took my profits and now will target a short if it makes the list.
MM
Out NGA
at 15.63 (from 15.11). The idiots split- so the IBD play is over.
NGA
Yes, it's somewhat overbought..but I think it's a lousy short here and a good long
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19612709
Buying NGA
I re-bought NGA at open and will likely add this week. Though it had previously been inexplicably absent from the IBD AMEX stock tables and therefore ineligible for a debut in the IBD 100, as of Friday it was added to the main tables and will therefore be eligible going forward.
Now the stock just needs to close a week over 15 to make the list. I think that this is very likely to happen this week, as IBD followers step up their buying of the stock (I'm also near term bullish on zinc prices, and I think there's a good chance that zinc prices will be a wind at NGA's back. But strong zinc prices would probably just be a bonus imho, as I suspect that the IBD players will take the stock up over 15 soon regardless). But, if not, I think it's very likely to happen within a few weeks in any event.
NGA may be brought onto the list lower than it's sterling IBD scores would suggest, as IBD seems to be making new IBD entrants "earn" a top 10 ranking lately by staying on the list 3-4 weeks before moving them up. But this didn't stop low floaters SNYL and MTOX from exploding prior to being moved up on the list and I'd expect even "just" a top 12 entry to give NGA a huge boost and help bring in additional buying from IBD followers who know that the stock will rise up the ranks. I'd look for NGA to make the top 4 within a month of its debut on the list and I'd expect the stock to be over $20 by then.
For data on how much impact a high IBD debut has on a low float stock, you can look at the recent charts of SYNL, MTOX and ROCM (all of which debuted on the list in the #10-#20 range before moving into the top 5 several weeks later.)
I'm not getting into this as a "value play" at all, as I have some doubts about the sustainability of NGA's earnings and, at the least, it's hard to feel confident of the company's future earnings power given that it doesn't provide forward guidance and has no analyst coverage. This is strictly a momentum trade for me. That being said, considering NGA's blowout Q1 report and the outstanding growth they've been showing, the stock doesn't look like a pig at current levels (at least not on its face).
Briefing made the following comments on NGA on May 2
"N. American Galvanizing: Taking another look after earnings (10.17 -0.33) : We pointed out the name North American Galvanizing (NGA) on three separate occasions in 2006, both early on and in the middle of the stock's run from $3 in late April to $9 in late July. The stock is known for large momentum moves leading up to and following its earnings releases... First some background. NGA is a provider of hot-dip galvanizing and coatings for corrosion protection of steel products. Corrosion protection is needed where iron or steel is exposed to the elements, such as for highways, power transmission, telecom towers, utilities, etc. Unlike steel and other metal producers, cos like NGA are somewhat insulated from rising costs as the co buys the metals from the mills, then treats it and resells it. If costs go up, the co has more of an ability to pass that price increase along to its customers... NGA's Q1 earnings report on Monday (4/30) provided the kind of movement momentum traders have come to expect. The stock rallied 38% during the two weeks leading up to the release, and then gapped up as much as 41% on Monday as the co pushed its streak of consecutive quarters with triple-digit yr/yr earnings growth to five. EPS came in at $0.28, a 115% gain from the year-ago period and also a 133% gain sequentially. Revs increased 52% yr/yr to $23.5 mln. The co's CEO commented: "Strong market demand for hot-dip galvanizing continued. Our improved plant operating rates and cost efficiencies combined with an increase in average selling prices resulted in record operating earnings, more than doubling prior year results." The co noted their ability to increase avg selling prices in zinc above increases in the cost of zinc as a favorable impact on operating income... Forward valuation is difficult for NGA as the co does not provide guidance, nor is there any analyst coverage. However, if the co were to only match last year's earnings for each of the remaining quarters in 2007 (which seems unlikely due to the demand for hot-dip galvanizing), NGA would trade at a forward P/E of 15x. This compares favorably to competitor AZZ (40% of its rev comes from galvanization), who trades at a forward P/E of 18x its FY07 EPS est... "
Out NGA
Out at 14.61, since it won't be eligible for the IBD list until next month, most likely. I'll buy it back later this month or next, most likely.
MM
Researcher:NGA
Great call out here, Reseacher. While there's no reason that NGA shouldn't be on the main AMEX tables (and I therefore didn't check), you're absolutely right that they're not. So I agree that we have to assume that NGA will likely make the list in early June (assuming it can close a week over 15 then). I also have to agree with Elijah that, without the immediate catalyst of an IBD berth, NGA is looking scary short term after the huge run it has had. I personally wouldn't add here.
It'll be interesting to see if the stock still gets bid up in anticipation of the eventual IBD listing, as SYNL was. That could happen, but I think that I'll likely just hold what I have and look to add in June.
I still think that NGA is almost certainly a $20-plus stock if/when it eventually makes the list.
MM
Wade/NGA
I bought some NGA at 10.07 on the day they reported. Sorry for the late notice, but I'm a new dad and have been a bit distracted lately. (LOL)
Anyway, I bought because NGA has a 99 EPS score and I think that it has a pretty good chance of becoming an IBD super runner in the style of ERS or SYNL. Obviously, I'm not predicting that it goes to 65 like ERS did (that was crazy, a rare momo event). However, I could easily see NGA going 25-plus if it makes the list, and $30 wouldn't surprise me. And I'd be pretty shocked if it didn't at least coast over $20 with IBD momo behind it.
It's earnings and earnings growth are better than ERS' was and it's even thinner than ERS was when it first made the list (Market cap a minuscule 92 million, float a ridiculously small 4.36 million).
Obviously, NGA has to close over 15 to make the list. But that doesn't seem far-fetched to me given its great report and that (imho) if it gets even into the mid 13s the IBD momos will run it over 15 so that it makes it.
I have a small starter position now. But I'll be loading in the $15 range if it gets there, for a likely momo super run.
MM
Bought DFNS
at .48. Looks very cheap to me, for the reasons previously discussed by Hweb and others.
MM
NPE.V/NPCEF
For those with an intermediate/long term investment timeline, I think that oil sands start-up NPE.V is worth a look.
I own quite a bit of it (basis around 1.80 CAD). Below is some DD from Agrossfarm (a personal friend of mine and one of the better posters around imho) to get you started on your research
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4288&mn=4518&pt=msg&mid=1802538
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4288&mn=4530&pt=msg&mid=1805735
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4288&mn=4551&pt=msg&mid=1808354
SYNL/Researcher
They update the tables on the first Friday of every month. So SYNL really ought to make the list this week. I'm long from again, from 28.20 (but not as big as I wanted to be, as it ran away and hid while I was accumulating).
MM
Out SYNL
At around 26.70. SYNL should have made the IBD list already and I assume that it'll likely make it in early April. But I'm out for now, and will probably look to re-buy on any significant weakness.
MM
SYNL/Researcher
Sorry I didn't respond to your post on SYNL, Researcher. I was out from Tuesday on for the birth of my baby boy! (our first!)
I held my SYNL, and really have no idea why IBD didn't update the tables on March 2nd, as they should have. Given that they failed to do so, it seems quite possible to me that we'll have to wait until the first week of April for SYNL to make its IBD debut, as Yinser said.
(Proud papa) MM
SYNL
Somewhat amazingly, SYNL didn't make the IBD list on Friday. I can only assume that this was because IBD didn't update their volume stats on Friday (as they have always done in the past on the first Friday of every month, and as I was assured would happen in a call I made to an IBD rep). My basis is around 24.20, and I'm planning to give SYNL another week to make the list before giving up on this trade.
MM
SYNL/Researcher
FYI, SYNL's composite rating is now 99. Assuming that its scores hold up tomorrow (which I think is likely), it should have a good chance to break onto the list in the top 5.
If that happens, we're extremely likely to see a big rally here by Monday morning imho. Additional extreme market weakness could kaibosh the play, but I think that the risk/reward is outstanding here.
MM
SYNL/MSGI
That's a very fair point, MSGI. I personally don't think we're in a correction and I'm leaning long now, at least for the short term. But, more importantly, I don't think that SYNL has much of an "IBD premium" at this point. Usually the IBD stocks that get hit really hard are those that have been run into the stratosphere before the correction.
But your point is a fair one. If the market is ugly tomorrow and Monday then this trade will be a lot tougher (though it still might very well work imho). I'm willing to risk that because I really like the risk/reward here.
MM
SYNL/Researcher
Sorry I didn't get back to you earlier (was out this morning)
yes, the composite rating is a slight x factor here, but SYNL has a good chance to come in top 5 regardless imho. More importantly, it would seem close to a lock to come in top 10..which really ought to be enough to give it some more mojo over the next few days imho.
Looking out a couple of weeks, it seems likely that SYNL might have a good chance of coming in with a 99 RS and moving it up to #1 or #2 on the list. But I'm certainly not counting on that happening this week, and it shouldn't have to happen for this to be a solid play with their current scores imho.
I took my position up this morning via a lowball limit order while away, with an extremely lucky fill at 23.30.
MM
SYNL
I'm not sure that anyone here really cares about this play (LOL), but just for the sake of thoroughness I'll note that SYNL's EPS/RS score is 99/97 as of tonight. SYNL is very likely to make it's IBD list debut in the top 5, and we should see a nice pop here over the next few days imho.
MM
SYNL
Closed near HOD, but not too late to buy it imho. I'm looking for a very nice run over the next couple of days, and likely an additional pop Monday morning.
MM
Buying SYNL
This one is for the traders. I'm buying SYNL (23.90, as I type this) as an IBD momentum play. It's current EPS/ RS score is 99/96, which should be good enough for it to debut this week in the top 10 of the IBD 100 list (probably around #5 is my guess).
It hasn't made the list yet, because it previously didn't meet IBD's volume requirements. However they update the volume data at the end of each month- so SYNL will be eligible for the list this Friday.
SYNL has a tiny float of around 5.27 million and could really run hard when/if the IBD momentum players find it.
MM
OT- GMKT
Covering most of the position here (24.35ish)
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_G/threadview?m=tm&bn=27696&tid=...
MM
OT- GMKT
Adding this morning, as this run is silly.
MM
OT- GMKT
Note that this idea is really just a technical/catalyst trade. I have no opinion on GMKT's fundamentals.
I shouldn't have posted this idea here, as it's really well outside of this board's usual fare. But, since I did, I wanted to make it clear that this play is not based on fundamentals.
MM