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One more thing ... If Steven can't say anything credible, or if Steven still has no control over the numbers from a pipeline / conversion ratio after now 2-years of trying to sell upgrades then that speaks volumes too IMO.
I am really just trying to find out what is true and what is false regarding Wave at this point. I don't need the pep-talk anymore, I am full of Kool-aid at this point.
Wave, and my investment going forward with Wave, is about revenues, credibility, and exceptional performance on all fronts. The very opportunity that Steven wanted to have the opportunity to take advantage of is finally here. The time to give him praise for his part in building the market has passed. It's now time to take advantage of it ~ with revenues.
So while all can argue this point from now to 1-2 quarters out every CC, I am one who believes that there has been enough in Wave's pipeline for the past 1-year to exceed expectations if they truely are the next killer solution.
Ramsey ~ listen to yourself. In an industry where under-state and over-perform is the norm, you are already resolved to Steven over-stating and under-performing. Why is that the position you are taking ~ unless you're used to being under-whelmed and over-fed with false expectations?
Yes ~ Steven did give guidance of $1m, and I (an investor) expect him to exceed that, and not be guessing quarter to quarter ~ or he shouldn't say it. Additionally, the longer he doesn't have anything controllable he can state with confidence, the less confidence the market will have in him ~ and our share price will continue to suffer.
Please stop defending the un-defendable here. I am not attacking Steven, Wave or anyone else. As an investor, I clearly realize what will make this stock appreciate, or decline. I'd suspect Steven does too. If he wants to stop the pipes, and dilutions, all he needs to do is become credible with his assertions, and exceed whatever expectations he sets ~ as we are no longer a Development Stage company. As a result, we should no longer treat Wave as if they are.
It's time to over-achieve ~ not under-achieve!
Hi go-kite
While I accept your points specific to #1, I also know that about 1-year ago Wave had 200k upgrade seats in the pipeline, and several (perhaps 10s of thousands) being trialed by prospects that have been engaged with Wave for almost, if not longer than 1-year.
Therefore, I am not looking for the revenues from Seagate yet. I, like you, will look to Q1 for that. But this board has a knack for looking forward to future quarters based on whatever the latest-and-greatest opportunity is that Steven creates ~ in this case, that would be Seagate.
However, in doing so, this board tends to overlook, and almost make excuses for prior relationships that have not performed according to stated expectations. Upgraded seat licenses has been in the Intel/Dell/Fed/Defense opportunity pipeline a lot longer than Seagate.
Let's not overlook the pipeline that should be converting by now, by looking at future pipeline opportunities not yet ready to report. That is making excuses for a company that doesn't need any new ones at this point.
Regards,
T123
Mark1 - Then your expectations are not in line with mine.
I expect earth-shattering news at this point. To me, earth-shattering would be:
1. More upgrade adoptions than any of us anticipated ~ or even in line with the major progress expectations that Steven always eludes to on all prior calls. This would be earth-shattering to the whole HW-security investor community.
2. Is the sales-cycle getting any shorter? and why? / why not? A shorter sales cycle indicates security is now a priority.
3. What's today's upgrade pipeline and conversion rate vs. 2-4 qtrs ago? Guidance on future quarters? Have any trialed and left without buying? If so, why? Indicates whether Wave and Wave's products are performing to customer expectations, or not.
These would be my top-3 earth shattering pieces of information to finally hear about ~ instead of the "Wave has made tremendous progress, and continues to see tremendous opportunity in the market. We are still in very early stages. Therefore, we are not comfortable giving guidance at this time".
Sounds just like IBM Tsunami ~ they'd rather own the whole space solution rather than partner with someone like Wave. Same goes for Microsoft ~ they're all closed-loop environments so they can charge their customers the least ~ but for everything
thanks goepling
Snackman ~ and why wouldn't this TC-beta be for the IBM-TPM/Linux combination within Trusted Computing more so than having anything to do with Wave?
Vader ~ Which comment was that? I must have missed that.
Thanks
T123
GreenWavx - always nice to have clarification before chaos
I did also. ditto
VH - Has anyone asked Steven for to comment?
barge - I'm no longer sure of who Wave's partners are. They never seem to go, but they never seem to amount to anything positive either.
email me (kwduemig@optonline.net) ~ got something to share.
cosign,
It's no longer a question what needs to occur. Is it?
Very frustrating that none of the other channels Wave has had going (other than Seagate/Dell) for a while now (i.e. Intel, e-sign-realtors, WXP, biometrics) have been worth anything to date from a revenue standpoint.
They aren't even spoken about on calls unless a caller brings them up.
Very frustrating to continuously watch a downward trend.
Oh Well ~ back to the rest of my life
If we are going to simply dismiss everything that may be printed saying that Trusted Computing may not work as well as advertised, then I think we are being naive. Wave and the Trusted Computing Group "MUST" respond to any and all negative findings ~ either in dispute, or in agreement.
To shove it under the rug, or dismiss it as irrelevant is not the wise course for us as investors either. We should look for an explanation coming out of the MArketing arm of the TCG
yangside ~ I see no clear deliniation (today) between what Troux actually does, and what some of these new PRs imply other people do.
Therefore, I'm not sure whether this is competition to Wave ~ if it is, then it is worrisome that Seagate found Phoenix to provide a better solution. Or, whether this is complimentary to what Wave may already be providing ~ if it is, then how so? and what role does Wave play in this arrangement?
The reason I ask, and now want to start knowing is, because the answers to questions like these have a direct impact on the strength of my investment in Wave ~ and I am therefore wanting to know. I figured the more technically oriented on this board might have an idea. If not, then the next step is to ask Steven directly ~ as it is no longer a patient waiting game at this point.
Regards,
So let's discuss this Phoenix Technologies PR
What does this mean to Wave? This sounds like Phoenix Technologies is touting some control over the PCs that Wave may or may not claim to provide.
I don't mind being better informed. Who can tell me what this means or what gap this new Phoenix relationship fills?
goin fishin ~ agreed. But I feel that Steven and Wave Systems holds the key to that balance. Not us. We have members who believe that Wave is like fine wine ~ that it'll be ready when it's time. And then we have some (like me) who believe that Wave needs to do some things to the magnitude, or within the timeline they imply ~ execution according to plan or stated timeframes.
Either way, we all want the same thing in the end....
Revenues, cash-flow-breakeven, profitability, and finally ~ wide scale adoption. When we see any one of those start happening at some significant volumes ~ we will all be very well balanced after that
goin fishin ~ while your heart is in the right place, and you could be right, to speculate on these possibilities is putting the cart way before the horse ~ don't you think?
At this point in time, Wave's ability to execute is being called into question. Steven has reported large ongoing trials, and 200k+ upgrade seats for the past 3-quarters. Steven has even stated his disappointment over adoption curves by some of these companies.
Last quarter ~ Steven reported only $11k in upgrade revenues, but also said things were heating up, and provided some number possibilities for Q4. Now I'm not being a Kiljoy here, but I'd almost be happy if Steven could hit the Q4 upgrade predictions that he made. I am so beyond listening to his forward looking statements beyond 1-quarter at a time, I can't tell ya. For my money, I'd just like to see him be right for once on one of his quarter to quarter predictions.
To ponder something like you propose stopped occurring in my world over 3-years ago. Let's see him close some of the things he predicted would/might close. If he does, then that shows signs that the product is being well-received, and the sales force can close a deal. If he doesn't make some significant progress towards the things he opined last quarter, then he should be treated with a bit of impatience on the part of the investors
Why is this old post suddenly showing up in the news? I would think it to be a mis-print, or something that needs to be corrected, but it hasn't been corrected for the past 22-hours.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/winners/10358923.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Another swinging lower was Wave Systems(WAVX - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), which was down 11 cents, or 4.4%, at $2.39 in after-hours trading. The computer-products maker will sell 7.3 million common shares for $2.05 each under a $25 million shelf statement and plans to use the net proceeds, roughly $14.2 million, to fund Wave's ongoing operations.
weby ~ It's been 4-years for Vista from the time I started hearing IT techs speak of it being on the roadmap, and now, and it's still not fully deployed.
I don't have a reason to hear much about TNC or NAC or Waves ERAS stuff ~ so I don't want to come off sounding like a know-it-all. But I would probably hear something, somewhere about it being a roadmap item ~ and so far..... nothing.
I would also caution you all to stop perpetuallly looking to the future for Wave revenues, and explosive growth.
If the things Steven said would happen would have happened by now, this conversation would be much less of the new hope for revenue factor. Whatever the market and IT world is doing, Steven needs to get better in touch with it ~ or start telling us the truth about how long this slog's really going to be.
Everything seems to be catching up, and starting to go by without a word of positive news from Wave regarding revenues and/or contracts to upgrade
wavedoctor ~ agreed. That is the positive approach to this. And to stay in that positive light, I believe that Dell is helping Wave create a buzz of late. And, without Seagate, I don't where we'd be as far as pushing trustworthy computing into the mainstream. Thank whomever for that.
But under every circumstance, even though a market can be invented by someone else, it's more important to investors who actually captures the market. The IBM PR merely announces that the game is afoot.
Time to jump into the ring with everything you got.
xxxxcslewis ~ Isn't it powerful when someone steps up and says they're willing to eat their own dog-food?
We all need to be wary of IBM, because they have a large number of Managed Operations contracts with some fairly large worldwide clients. Therefore, it would be easy for them to push a server-based key management solution if they control the servers. They don't control as many desktop operations however ~ so that's good for Wave.
So when I say we need to be wary, I don't mean that we need to fear IBM necessarily. What we need to fear is IBM having total control over their own marketing budget, and how they are not dependent on anyone for shaping their own story towards their own best interests, and profitability.
That's not necessarily something that's ever been under Wave's control ~ and that's been A problem for Wave historically.
internet - can you believe you're saying that? do you know how many times someone on this board has said we have to be patient for another 2-quarters, or so.
You've been on this board as long as I have, and I can only hope that you're laughing with me that you actually said that. I'm definitely not laughing at you, because I too believe also that Wave is making progress. I just can't believe it came from you ~ I'm shocked~!
To all - no matter what you all believe regarding payroll, you're focusing on the wrong Wave numbers. The simple truth is we need revenues to stop the share price from slowy deteriorating every year. We need revenues to stop the ongoing dilution, and shelf registrations. And, we need revenues to make this investment a worthwhile investment.
Until then, it's a waste of our collective money and breath to speak about such things. In this case I would agree with Snackman's approach. If you don't like your investment ~ sell and get out. That said, by Wave's own admission, we should already be, and still need to make more money quarter over quarter than Wave's been making to date.
Steven needs to find a way to monetize the market he's created for his own company, and not everyone else's.
micro59 ~ It is no secret to anyone that a CEO's primary responsibility to his company, and to his/her investors is to produce a return on that investment. And not a negative return.
That said, I do believe that for something as innovative and ahead of the market curve as Wave obviously was, there is a period of time where evagelizing, and quite likely, creating your own market is necessary. In these cases, patience must be exercized by all. It is also debatable as to when this market will have finally matured, passing what many call 'the tipping point', where revenues should now be expected. Some believe now ~ while others believe there's still lots of evangelizing left to be done. Who knows better than Steven?
There is no doubt that Steven's tireless efforts, and dogged determination have been primary contributors to this market being where it is now ~ or at all. So, I can truly understand and agree with those who believe that this company would be nowhere without Steven. However, until Wave reaches the tipping point, additional shares as a reward should flow as freely as can be justified. However, actions that take away from scarce working capital, and cause further dilution should always be highly scrutinized, and sometimes discouraged by the board, and the investors.
In summary, I strongly believe that the efforts that Steven has put forth over the past few years should be rewarded. However, it has been my experience that these rewards (for a CEO of a company making little revenues) come in the way of additional stock, and stock options. That way, everyone keeps their eye on the real prize, and is motivated to the same outcome ~ profiability and increased shareholder value!
Should Steven never get a raise or a bonus? That's an absurd question IMO. Of course he should. But Steven has also said that this company should be profiable by now. So it's also appropriate now, to start setting revenue targets, and set expectations that his bonus will be tied directly to that revenue performance. That way, we all benefit ~ which I think is the argument right?
2 cents worth
barge - I would agree with you in th context of what SKS has achieved in transitioning a market. He has earned his pay thus far. But CEOs of public companies are usually paid on their ability to increase shareholder value. So, while I would agree that one couldn't happen without the other, it is now time for him to be rewarded based on the other. All of his partner CEOs are. I look forward to him getting rewarded for that.
FYI ~ For every one who may look at this as ol' Tampa is at it again ~ I'm not. I am still just as comfortable with this investment, and still just as impatient as ever. I just found it as something interesting, and on-topic to share on a slow Sunday.
I just added up all of my WAVX investments this weekend (regular, IRA) and while I've been able to average down at almost every turn since 2000, I am currently down in this investment an average of 77.1 percent overall.
Additionally, since my last purcahse was pre-split at somewhere just north of $1 / shr, these investments are only down an average of around 55.0 percent.
It will be very interesting to re-visit these percentages again in early 2009, as I hope a complete turnaround has taken place.
OT weets ~
My best to you and your family as well.
Form 8-K for WAVE SYSTEMS CORP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
14-Jan-2008
Other Events
Item 8.01. Other Events.
Wave Systems Corp. ("Wave" or "the Licensor" ) signed an amendment to its software license agreement with Dell Products, L.P. ("the OEM") extending the term of the agreement to January 2011. Pursuant to the existing agreement, the OEM is permitted to distribute Wave's EMBASSY Trust Suite (ETS) software on certain of its PCs that include Trusted Platform Module security chips.
Wave receives a per-unit royalty based on the volume of products shipped by the OEM with Wave's software. Reflecting value-added features incorporated into a new version of Wave's ETS software (version 3.0), the Licensor will now be entitled to a higher per-unit royalty for shipments of this version of the software.
The contract does not provide for guaranteed minimum royalties or shipped quantities of units containing Wave software.
As part of the amendment, the agreement was assigned and transferred from Dell Products, LP to its affiliate Dell Global B.V. (Singapore Branch).
Safe-Harbor Statement: Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The foregoing may contain forward-looking information within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), including all statements that are not statements of historical fact regarding the intent, belief or current expectations of the company, its directors or its officers. The words "may," "would," "will," "expect," "estimate," "anticipate," "believe," "intend" and similar expressions and variations thereof are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the company's ability to control, and that actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.
a little bit of a jump in dot connecting IMO ~ this is why we're always left wondering. No proof ~ lots of speculation and dot-connecting.
Prove it, and it'll be big. Implying it is old news and a waste of time.
mundo ~ while this is clearly competition, it is also very exciting to see someone else this large validate the model. I wonder if HP manages across multiple architectual patterns and HW configurations? I don't think so.
Genz2 - Cosign makes a very reasonable point, in that, you should contact Steven yourself and ask him that question. To the average investor your question is a reasonable one ~ "Why are investors always being fed new opportunities and new numbers, without the CC ever following up on numbers previously stated?" If that occurred, then I'd have to believe that there's also some deserved explanation that should accompany any response you get.
Although it's a good question, and one I've often pondered myself, the only way to get the answer you seek is to go right to the source and ask him. He did say on Wednesday that none of these opportunities have since gone away. Therefore, if you take him at face value, then it is either the case where the customer has an extremely long trying/buying cycle, little to no budget, or perhaps there's bugs, and/or additional requirements or hurdles that had to be overcome.
Who knows ~ still a valid question, as long as you frame it such that you accurately recount what was said, and not assume to know the answer you might receive back
I'd be interested in that answer if you get it.
waverider - I think we agree. I was just saying that I don't think they need to be all new hies in Wave, and that they could ramp up using pre-defined biz dev relationships they could, or have already forged.
So I think you and I are saying the same thing
katmai ~ I'm not sure why he has that anxiety either. We should probably have some discussions on this board as to what is so resource intensive ~ that he needs to feel that way.
I would imagine that his server management products and/or client software is either pre-loaded, or if it's an upgrade, should be moving towards a raily seamless install. I can see them having configuration issues today, with the lack of standard configurations and/or archotectural patterns surrounding security. However, this should get to be more seamless rather quickly as Wave, and their prospects engage on a more regular basis.
After that, what's left after initial hand-holding? Applet development? I don't know. But if they're making the right partnerships (i.e. Dell, SIs, etc) there should be levers and switches that he can turn on/off depending on volume without the need for a major technnical team in-house.
Maybe a larger sales force, but that wasn't the focus of his discussion that I believe you're referring to from yesterday. So I'm not sure what he'd not have enough of. Perhaps others might shed sone light.
Who said that it would go down to $1.30?
I would wait for the drop first
I can't, and didn't offer to try. It's also not my job to do so.
generally between 10 and 18 percent in high-tech
No please - Not 1-seat at a time. If that happens, we're all dead before we see the SP increase significantly.
;_)
Boy I dislike that still scratching the surface comment. He's used it now for 5-years straight. I just wish he'd stop saying that.