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Any thoughts as to the number of shares the new company will issue? 800M O/S? 1B A/S?
mfo - Good post! Great recovery by Tivus to overcome that problem. Believe the sun will start shining on us longs in the not too distant future. Way to go Tivus!
I've been here for almost a year and there haven't been any paid pumping campaigns during that time and doubt there will be in the future. The odds are that good progress/happenings during the next 4-5 months will provide plenty of natural "pumping" for CWRN stock and all longs will be in great shape. I look forward to Bob Cotton indicating its time for this rocket to take off.
I wonder if Bob Cotton has considered buying his own trucks? Would be more of a headache with upkeep, repairs, ect., but perhaps more profitable and expedient than using their current carrier. By CWRN buying only one truck per shipment it wouldn't take long before they could haul it all themself. One month to ship 38 tons or so to port sounds like the trucker is regressing.
M.C.
I take back my sarcastic "slippage" comment. I didn't see your post 57138 when I sent it. Slippage is good!
M.C.
What a strange reply. It appears you need to go back and reread my post. The point simply was, inventory or no inventory, Bob stated his operational costs were $200K to $300K monthly which doesn't appear to fit a $43 ton production cost based on simple division.
We, of course, don't know exactly which type production costs Bob was using, but chances are he was giving a quick and dirty estimate based on out-of-pocket cash costs which wouldn't reflect taxes and tax breaks, depreciation, etc. Financials would give us a better idea.
Re your statement "Using your twisted rationale then CWRN only has 3 million total costs/year(250k by 12). Against ca 17,200,000 income assuming only 130/ton for 3rd ship and assuming no 4th ship. This would mean CWRN's costs are only 17% and a profit margin of 83%. I'm sure you wont admit CWRN has an 83% profit margin -even assuming the worst case scenario I've posed now would you???" In the foregoing you neglected to add the $43.00 storage and shipping cost. When I use the $43 ton storage/shipping cost and add a guesstimated production cost of $25/$30 ton I arrive at a total laid down cost of $68/$73 per ton.
I readily admit that, based on information from previous posts (some dated) and PR's, I am guessing about actual production costs which obviously can change from day to day, based on numbers of crews working, new equipment purchased, etc. Chances are however, my guess is just as good as yours and perhaps more accurate. On the other hand I didn't factor in slippage.
Perhaps the above will help to "unconfuse" you.
M.C.
No doubt you recall the recent post concerning the shipping delay in which Bob Cotton stated his operating cost was running $200K to $300K per month. Dividing the $200K/300K by the estimated operating cost of $43 ton would result in a mine production of only 4650 to 7000 tons per month. If Mr. Cotton's figures are valid the cost of $43 per ton then appears suspect.
Meant O/S count?
Anyone know what the A/S count did this week? Thanks
Fidelitys charge for TIVU and other pennies is the normal $7.95 per trade. I made my change from Zecco to Fidelity on a Tuesday and was up and running on that Friday.
The stock sale restriction by various brokers against TIVU is also being applied to other stocks on the Non-DTC Eligible List. For example you can now only buy CWRN at 3 brokerages (Schwaab, Fidelity and ETrade) as far as we know. I switched from Zecco to Fidelity about 6 weeks ago and have had to problems. Takes about 3 days to get the transfer completed and is easy to do online.
I thought Tivus add was very good. Go TIVU!
"Its hard to see in this pic but at the top is some of the huge stockpiled piles of inventory awaiting trucking,which should begin next week."
Nice to hear that trucking is going to begin. Go CWRN!
What fortune does your glass ball tell us?
I'm not an expert in the bunker fuel cost area and prefer not to become involved. From my days in transportation pricing and auditing I seem to recall that the fuel cost reflected approximately 30-35% of total operating costs. If you need information on bunker fuel there should be information available on-line, or you might contact a bunker fuel supplier who not only could give you todays bunker price but also do a fast single lane (or lease period) cost computation for you. If Mr Cotton is interested in leasing a panamax I would think a potential lessor or perhaps John Dillon & Co. could produce a cost study in short order.
You could be right. My thoughts were that a dynamite earnings report for the 4th quarter of say $18m, versus $6M in quarters 2 and 3, plus notice of the big increase in production would give us a great PR at uplist/merger time. It would also give Bob a little more time to buy back shares. Would rather see a buy back at 1-3 cents than at 10 cents. If there are to be at least 75 tons shipped in the 4th quarter it would seem reasonable a few bucks could go towards a buy back.
From where I sit only Bob Cotton can. When he is ready to take the handcuffs off this thing should jump. Am guessing first quarter of 2012.
I would think large loads would produce a much greater savings. If the 75 ton rate were $20.00 it would produce a savings of $8.96 ton or $672,000.00. The $3.00 ton savings from Kriton versus Loreto may well have been in storage, but the actual storage charges on a 75 ton load probably would be going up since it will take more time to accummulate the load at the port. Overall, there should still be a nice savings with the larger ships.
Last paragraph, I meant a dynamite 4th quarter earnings report to accompany any merger notice should help the pps greatly.
Trucking and port storage charges rightly fall with shipping expenses. Yes the port storage charge was higher with Kriton and improved with Loreto. Faster handling often results in lower charges.
The ocean factor on Kriton was %28.96 but as you and others have pointed out should be less with bigger loads ($20.00?) The total ocean charges paid were $1,115,000 which reflects $28.96.
I didn't include any vessel detention fee. It took about 11 days in port for Kriton to be fully loaded. My 44 years in freight transportation leads me to believe someone had to eat some detention. Who knows though, perhaps since this was shipment number uno the carrier waived the charges in order to get on Mr. Cotton's good side.
To me it appears CWRN has made cost cutting moves and hopefully other cuts are possible. Now if they would just ship something. A dynamite 4th qtr PR to accompany the merger notice (or whatever it comes down to) would be great.
Go to the Kriton PR and divide the individual payouts by 38.5 tons.
Total shipping cost is comprised of various factors. Kriton broke down as follows:
EIT $8.31
Truck $9.25
Ocean $28.96
Total $46.52
With the thought that things were learned from the Kriton experience it seems reasonable that improved handling cut the Loreto shipping charges down to $43.00. Obviously there was a large vessel detention bill on Kriton that someone had to pay.
I, among others on this board, appreciate your efforts DD GUY. Reading about those things Tivus has going for it is much preferred to the continual negative posts by some on this board. Seems like some of those posters are doing their best to keep the stock price depressed. Go TIVU!
DD GUY for mod.
I read the $43.00 in the Loreto PR as describing the total shipping cost. This would have reflected an improvement from the $46.52 shipping cost for Kriton.
Mining cost + equipment is just a little over 200k a month, so, 2 months or 3 months between shipments doesn't really make much of an impact ~Bob
Based on an estimated 15,000 ton monthly production rate is this telling us his production cost has been only $13 to $14 per ton?
Nice to have you here. Positive posts have been hard to find on this board lately. Hope things are about to change with new contracts pushing the pps up and putting a smile on all of our faces.
Don
I transferred from Zecco to Fidelity a few weeks ago. It took 3 days and is easily done just by going to the Fidelity website and filling in the forms. Took only about 10 minutes. If you do this make sure your handling with your former broker is complete because when you authorize the transfer Fidelity will immediately close your former account. I had ach'd a $50.00 transfer fee to Zecco earlier that day and then gave Fidelity transfer authorization the same day. Fidelity acted immediately to close the Zecco account which automatically cut off Zecco's link with my bank so they couldn't get the $50.00 transfer fee, No problem though because Zecco simply handled with Fidelity to recover my transfer fee and I didn't have to do anything more.
E.M.
Thanks for posting Steve's reply. Helps a body not only hang in there, but also consider buying more. Am ACHing a few more bucks to my Fidelity account.
I would say YES. They have the Doubletree contract and also a contract with an "undisclosed party". They have a MOU with Host which hopefully will be contract number 3.
Yes it would be nice to see a higher pps and a little green for a change, but beyond that is the fact that CWRN PROMISED the buyback. Surely buying back shares before the merger would be best. Believe the latest message on the buyback sugject indicated it would be accomplished on a ship-by-ship basis.
It would seem a buyback would be advantageous for all shareholders now and hopefully after the merger (allow me to choose the share conversion formula and it certainly will be). I understand that Bob is the biggest stockholder, therefore, would gain the most.
Hope I am not being shortsighted, but would like to see a sincere attempt at a buyback begin soon. However, I don't think I want to sell any of my shares. Go CWRN!
Would also like to see the buy-back squeezed in there somewhere.
Do you think this is the "good news" Bob promised us longs, or is something else coming "soon" that might finally move this stock up a little?
Anyone know when the Xcentric Ripper is going to arrive?
If you are looking for a job try some left-wing newspaper who specializes in throwing out baseless accusations, propaganda and twisting truth.
Here is one indisputable fact for you: SILVER**** is encouraging others to sell their shares and drive TIVU's stock price down so he can buy it back at a much lower level. Please let me know if I got that wrong. Investors not knowing what's going on may feel forced to sell and just take their losses and leave. But, hey SILVER***, please don't worry about those people. They are just "suckers" (as you referenced investors in a previous post).
I see Tivus as doing what they have to do to get this thing off the ground. I doubt they just happily ran out and issued 504 and convertibles. The ball is now mostly under Host's control and all Tivus can do is wait. In the meantime we have SILVER***** and others on this MB screaming that the sky is falling down and SILVER#### openly challanging people to sell their stock and buy it back at a lower level. Risky game that.
Insofar as "blaming others" I simply call a spade a spade. There is little doubt, with the large amount of shares being held by IHUBers, that the posts by SILVER**** and negative posts by others have cause some selling. It's a shame to see some former supportive Longs turn into game players. I'm not a pumper nor a basher but TIVU's potential is obvious.
IF, repeat IF, they increase the A/S I wonder if the lower stock price some on this messageboard want will cause TIVU to have to make the A/S higher e.g. increasing to 800M instead of just 450M? If so I wonder if those taking orders from the Pied Piper will, to an extent, maybe win a battle today but cause the end victory be less than what is could have been?
Smokey,
I can't PM. The statements aren't mine. All I can say for sure, not being an expert in that particular area, is that the volatility has decreased noticeably. Lack of volatility means fewer game players out to fleece us "suckers" (as the Pied Piper would call us)
Trade for Trade. For those having an interest on how a company can end up on the Non-DTC Eligible List (and like it) see post 52631 on the CWRN IHUB messageboard. Post 52616 is also informative.
When news hits any thoughts on where the stock will open that morning? Assumming those who now are taking orders from the Pied Piper and are selling with the thought of driving the price down then buying back are able to drive the price down to say .0035, I would think the open would then be at least .005 and the price will never look back. Be careful all Pied Piper followers because you easily can get burnt by playing his game.
Good Luck to all Longs.
How about the Philadelphia Marriott fact? The DT fact? The recent CC and very positive statements by PM and SP? Neither you nor anyone else on this messageboard knows for certain what's going to happen with the A/S. Even if an increase occurs any good news may make it seem a minor happening. 500M shares for a Pinky isn't bad.
It's obvious from your prior posts you have for some weeks been about driving TIVU down so you can buy lower, and have even dared others to sell their shares (see your posts of 9-2, 8-31, etc- and other posts where you ask if investors have the balls to sell and buy lower). On the bright side, however, I note in your 8-14 post you projected a future stock price for TIVU based on 299M O/S of $1.65 if TIVU only gets the Host properties. There are, of course, many other Hotel chains out there to sign up.
Good Luck to all Longs.