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Or that cash balance. Look at deferred revenue greater than cash, that's quite horrifying.
I have a small position but I lll probably hold
NEP up 41%, Damn Big Fish research is really getting his ass kicked, personally I found his reasearch amateurish at best. As really he could have spent a couple hundred $ to confirm his findings 100% rather than post some mumble jumble that raised questions but lacked substantial proof.
Hopefully he's losing a fortune.
ZSTN-Yeah what a joke, ZSTN is one of the most obvious frauds in the space. If there were more shares available to short, I'd crush this POS myself with a hit piece.
Yong that's rodmans fraud wording, the shorts must have tipped them off with compelling evidence. IMO this is going much lower, I'm net short
BIDU-I'm not, just after reading that posters accusations I had to check them out (he's clueless but no suprise there). But honestly after everything that's happened I wouldn't be shocked if these major IB's screwed up something with the DD (weirder things have happened). After all wasn't CCME going to be underwritten by UBS, but CCME cancelled? And how did Goldman & Morgan Stanley allow Demand Media to go through with their BS accounting that clearly overstates profits and should be a direct GAAP violation?
BTW I'm considering longing Baidu and shorting YOKU.
Baidu-Scavenger Hunt I just chased down and read all the posts by the author (see below accusation) so you guys wouldn't have too, after all if Baidu was a fraud that'd be crazy.
Are you a cash account? I don't see how Schwab could do this to you. You should talk to someone else there, with my case the 1st 2 people told me I would lose 100% of my investment but the 3rd is allowing me to short.
A couple long picks should be coming out by a major short in the next week.
Thanks I don't follow the name so just checked Geo and it still says Sherb.
OSN Geo Before everyone gets carried away with OSN as a GEO pick, I'd like to remind everyone Maj found it interesting based on guidance and recent weakness. Other than pulling filings I don't believe he's done any onground DD with this name. Remember Sherb is their auditor
No position
DGW up 7% whose buying this obvious fraud, I'm still holding my puts
YOKU-Hell no. Yes the valuation is absurd but the market is perfectly content with the fact they won't be making money until late 2012 early 2013 (these are analyst estimates that I disagree with). Its impossible to guess when the market will realize this isn't the youtube of China, and therefore outright shorting is extremely risky.
My trade:Shorting this and longing Baidu, YOKU makes Baidu look cheap cheap cheap.
I believe so, but we'll see if I can hold them off. Hopefully they'll let me buy in anytime that day, as I don't want a market order going out. Or i might just upgrade that account to margin, but if PUDA's unhalted quick (unlikely) I won't have time.
Riddle Answer: Nope I had in the money put options for april for PUDA. Since they expired this week and I couldn't sell them because of the halt or exercise because of the cash status, I thought I was screwed. But luckily after 3 hours on the phone IB agreed to allow me to exercise them.
Booyah a 100% loss after getting the direction and timing right would have really pissed me off, instead it should be a 100%+ gain.
CEU-Couldn't agree more its a complete fraud. I bought in at 1 time playing the balance sheet, but luckily after discussions with onground DDers I cashed out down a couple %.
This IB margin increase is a total killer when trying to find shares to short.
OT:Riddle for Everyone How did I manage to bypass Reg T and open a short position in one of my cash accounts (It happened accidently)?
Info for those who don't realize what I'm talking about
"you need to open a margin account to short sell stocks," Investopedia
The reason that margin accounts and only margin accounts can be used to short sell stocks has to do with Regulation T, a rule instituted by the Federal Reserve Board.
My broker also states short sales in cash accounts are impossible.
SIHI-I had the same problem sending emails to Cathy, but I have the CEO's email and the VP of IR's if you want them and they respond.
Personally I'll never allocate a significant portion of money to SIHI, as now I'll never trust them (unless they let me view their SAT files directly from office, plus alot of other source documents).
Update on DD: My source who pulls the filings can't pull the Shanghai sub for some reason. Accordingly there is no point in speculating with half the filings so for the time being I've given up on researching SIHI (there are better opportunities to allocate my limited resources). Even if SIHI publishes their SAIC filings now I won't be happy, because they've had plenty of time to amend/falsify them.
I do still own SIHI but like all my long RTO positions they are either hedged with short RTO's or hedged by options.
CNBC Interview: Block discussed how he looks for to good to be trues and visits facilities to find potential targets. He wouldn't give a number on the % of frauds. He also didn't mention any new names.
If you are long this sector I'd email CNBC (Is he on Strategy Session?) and detail how Carson Block has forged documents and all the other things he's done. Last time some people did this, myself included, they cancelled his appearence. Unless you prefer him to bash the sector.
CHBT-Hopefully I just bought some deep in the money puts. This name is the lowest lying fruit for the shorts.
OT Glen & Oil Abiotic oil theory in my opinion is a a complete joke. Yes oil on saturn and other areas (Russia) have abiotic origins but this is clearly not in the majority. The majority of oil (99%) can be traced clearly to organic origins, by something with hydrocarbon identification and biomarkers(you can literally track oils origin to the specific trees and matter its from). Abiotic oil hasn't been seriously discussed for years because of the apparent flaws in the theory.
Glen look at who believes in Abiotic oil, you can find info from believers on sites like educate-yourself.org where they also discuss how 12 million americans are actually mind controlled slaves controlled by microwave towers. These guys are a complete bunch of wackjobs.
You should be able to find alot of research disproving abiotic oil and you can read on Gold's dramatic failure when trying to prove Abiotic oil in the field.
I'm meeting with a geologist later this week and I'll ask him his opinion anyway.
Geoinvesting Personally I think Maj's new service is a necessity. If you are a trader you can wait for his reports to be issued then quickly pile in, I did this yesterday and am up 35%, which will cover my subscription fees for the rest of the year (its $10 a month). If you are a fundamental investor you can utilize his reports to confirm a company is legit (resulting in multibagger), or to realize a company is fraudulent.
As John Bird told me the other day, its all about access to information and for alot of retails this will be your only chance for it.
Plus you can ask him questions.
Edit: I'm now up 65% Thanks Maj
PUDA-Nice Call
DGW-I'm in the same position, hopefully the price action will make MW issue a response.
NEW JAPANESE QUAKE 7.4
Interesting relevations from Scott's article
"bank employees are colluding with clients. The bank employee would provide us with falsified bank statements."
"Ninety percent of Chinese companies don't let their CFOs have access to bank accounts in China."
"PCAOB doesn't require the auditors to obtain original bank statements."
As we thought its easy to fake cash balances considering the auditor might not check the actual documents rather they'd take the companies word for it, and if they do check the bank employees could be helping falsify documents. Also CFOs are more like IR than decision makers.
CBEH-I'm late to the party, but i purchased puts today anyways. I reread the piece and Alfred has a slam dunk case. Their biodiesel segment is a complete hoax which he proved 100%. There other business is in Retail Gas Stations and Wholesale Distribution, here they clearly overstated profits. In reality they generated .19 EPS so are still trading at 12x earnings with management who clearly enjoys ripping off, deceiving, and stealing from investors.
Short term there are alot of catalysts the main being KPMG pulling their audit opinion and this POS will tank.
I plan on holding these for a week or so until KPMG pulls their audit.
Brilliant, my options screwed me, but for those expecting significant losses a $300 pr is a great idea (pay with a visa gift card so its untraceable to you, and only buy one in a store with no video surveillance or stand outside and pay someone else to go in, also use a public computer for ordering it). This will be the true test to see if the longs are weak and like getting raped or if they will fight back.
I'm guessing someone will do it, I know I would If i was deeply underwater.
Edit Disclaimer: Do not attempt this
SOKF-You gotta love the illiquid nature and therefore complete lack of correlation to the space, pull up the 2 year chart, its a real beauty. I've met management but never conducted any actual DD.
Off topic Your 95% seems absurd, I'm sure at least 55% are frauds and as time advances I'm sure it will move to 75%. But then again tell me 6 months ago 20% were frauds (including CCME, NIV, & CELM) and I would have laughed in your face.
While people considered you the paranoid and permabear mod, youve been dead on. I hope you made alot shorting this space, you deserve every penny of it.
Welcome skier1, I'll look forward to hearing your SOKF commentary, as I have a tiny position in the name.
NEWN-Thank God I got out.
Shane McMahon CEO? I hope you aren't long.
DGW-Thats great I picked up some 7.5 puts earlier today, I hope this POS burns.
Our ECSC Index is now down 36.97% YTD, and these were our best picks. Of course it is skewed by this lowball CCME quote.
I know alot of the shorts and they plan on holding these shorts for years. I don't know any shorts that agressively trade, more like short and hold. But if we do get a catalyst the follower shorts will start to cover, and cover quickly as they are weak hands.
AERL-Tanking down 12%, wow did I screw up exiting this one. I completly missed selling in premarket as I was being to cheap with limit orders.
NEWN-If you are long you have to be happy, as it finally seems RTO management is agreeing/acting on their view their stock is undervalued.
Personally I'm skeptical and could easily classify this as a pr expense, as 1 million is nothing compared to what they already hold.
I did initiate a very tiny position on this, mainly playing a possible reaction.
AERL-Great Catch, talk about misleading investors.
I am pleased with 100% rev growth so far in 2011, but that increase in share count in Q4 is a killer.
AERL-I really like this company, so it greatly pains me to sell now in premarket.
2010 Numbers were great 101% revenue growth and 2.69 EPS, if this thing is legitimate, it could easily hit 50+ (5bagger) after the RTO sector is cleaned out. After all how hot is Macau Gambling, with this revenue growth, institutions could bid this higher than 20x earnings. Too bad this isn't optionable.